According to the most recent estimates from the BLS, total non-farm employment in Detroit stood at ~1.9 million payrolls, representing an annualized increase of 12,500 jobs or 66 basis points. Meanwhile, unemployment decreased 1.2 percentage points year-over-year to 7.0 percent.
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JLL Detroit Office Employment Update
1. Office real estate implications
Sources: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change)
Detroit
Total vacancy has continued to decline since hitting a record high of 29.2
percent in the first quarter of 2011. With an improving economy and increasing
space needs by office tenants, total vacancy is expected to continue its
downward trend through 2015. That said, over 15.5 million square feet of
office product remains vacant, ensuring tenant-favorable conditions across
most submarkets for several years. Rents are expected to increase modestly
over the next year, with the concentration of gains taking place among Class A
properties.
The economic challenges in Detroit have created significant barriers to
speculative office construction. Developers have steered clear of this market
for at least a decade and fundamentals are unlikely to justify any speculative
construction over the forecast, albeit build-to-suit activity will continue to take
place. As such, demand growth will continue to translate almost entirely into
vacancy improvements, as experienced over the last two years.
Total employment vs. unemployment rate
Detroit
(30.0)
(20.0)
(10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Information Government
Office employment trends (12-month change)
Detroit
Office employment update
Metro Detroit . January 2015
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Peak: 2,217,186 jobs
unemployment rate
total jobs
3.0%
-3,900
-3,300
-2,200
-700
-100
2,300
2,300
5,600
5,700
6,800
-5,000 -1,000 3,000 7,000
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Government
Other Services
Information
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Mining, Logging & Construction
Number of Jobs
7.0%Detroit unemployment
0.7%Detroit 12-month job growth
5.6%U.S. unemployment
2.2%U.S. 12-month job growth
• According to the most recent estimates from the BLS, total non-farm
employment in Detroit stood at ~1.9 million payrolls, representing an
annualized increase of 12,500 jobs or 66 basis points. Meanwhile,
unemployment decreased 1.2 percentage points year-over-year to 7.0
percent.
• Office-using employment sectors in Detroit have contracted in recent
months, recording an annualized net loss of 3,900 jobs across the metro.
Professional and business services was the only sector to record gains,
adding an annualized 2,300 jobs, however these gains were largely
overshadowed by declines in the financial services sector, where
employment decreased by 3,900 jobs year-over-year.
• Total U.S. nonfarm employment increased by 252,000 jobs in December
and upward revisions were made to prior months totaling 50,000 jobs.
Over 2.9 million jobs were added over 2014, making it America's best
year of job growth since 1999.
• Meanwhile, U.S. unemployment decreased 20 basis points to 5.6
percent, its lowest rate in six years. Leading economists are now
forecasting unemployment to shrink to 5.2 percent, approximately “full
employment,” by the end of 2015.