Systems thinking for analyzing problems

Systems Thinking in
Analyzing Problems
Bushra Zaidi

INTRODUCTIONS
• Professional Information
Company/Overview of Role
• Purpose
Why are you here? What do you want
to take away from this course?
• Personal Information
Fantasy Breakfast! Who, Where, What?
3

Introduction to Systems Thinking

Introduction to the systems concept
The six blind men and an
elephant
A partial truth
The moral of the story:
having a ‘holistic’ view
“The behaviour of a
system cannot be known
just by knowing the
elements of the system”
(Meadows 2008, p.7)
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Knowledge and Experience
0 5 10
I Recognize Dilbert I Have Heard of
Systems Thinking
Jay Forrester
Sends Me
Flowers On My
Birthday

The World’s Biggest Problems
• Armed Conflict
• Spread of Infectious Disease
• Growing Population
• Availability of Energy
• International Terrorism
• The Economy
• Climate Change
• Poverty, Hunger, Lack of Water
Date Source: Eurobarometer survey of the EU, 2011
Image Source: 123RF

Why Do These Problems Persist?

Schools Have Not Prepared
Students to Solve Them

Learning to solve this…
A car averages 27 miles per gallon. If gas costs $4.04 per gallon,
which of the following is closest to how much the gas would cost
for this car to travel 2,727 typical miles?
A. $44.44
B. $109.08
C. $118.80
D. $408.04
E. $444.40
Question Source: ACT Prep
Image Source: MarketMixup

won’t teach you to solve this.
The United States consumers more than 20% (7 billion barrels)
of the world’s oil supply annually yet only has 2% of the world’s
proven oil reserves. What factors will determine when we
reach “peak oil”—the point in time when the maximum rate of
petroleum extraction is reached,
after which the rate of oil
production is expected to enter
terminal decline?
Image Source: OnlineBikeMania

Systems Thinking
Traditional analysis focuses on the individual pieces of what is
being studied. Systems thinking focuses on how the things
being studied interact with the other constituents of the system.
Instead of isolating smaller
and smaller parts of the
system being studied, systems
thinking works by expanding
its view to consider larger and
larger numbers of interactions
as an issue is being studied.
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by erwlas

Problem Solving: Pest Control
Problem: Insect “A” is damaging crops
Traditional Analysis Approach: Spray pesticide to kill the insects
Insect “A” Population Insect “B” Population
Pesticide Application Insect “A” Declines Crops Flourish
OVER TIME…
Insect “B” Population Explodes Crops Damaged Even More

“A system is a set of elements or parts that is
coherently organised and interconnected in a pattern
or structure that produces a characteristic set of a
behaviours, often classified as its ‘function’ or
‘purpose’” (Meadows 2008, p.188)
“Simply defined, a system is a complex whole the
functioning of which depends on its parts and the
interactions between those parts” (Jackson 2003, p.3)
“A system is more than the sum of its parts – it is the
product of their interactions” (Ackoff 1999)
Definitions of Systems

What is a System?
A set of elements or parts that is coherently organized and
interconnected in a pattern or structure that produces a
characteristic set of behaviors, often classified as its “function” or
“purpose.” (Donella Meadows)

Components of a System
Elements
Inter-
connections
Function

Elements
Elements
• Typically the most obvious part of
a dynamic system
• Changing elements often has
very little effect on the system
Image Source: Armchair GM

Interconnections
Inter-
connections
• Often involve the flow of
information
• Changing relationships usually
changes system behavior
Image Source: Creative Commons by ~IconTexto

Function
• Typically the least obvious part of
a dynamic system
• A change in purpose changes a
system profoundly
Image Source: Antique Radios
Function

Systems: Key Points
• A system is more than the sum of its parts.
• Many of the interconnections in systems operate through the
flow of information.
• The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose,
is often the most crucial determinate of the system’s behavior.
• System structure is the source of system behavior. System
behavior reveals itself as a series of events over time.

A collection is also
composed of a number
of parts but they are
just dumped together
and are not
interconnected
(Sherwood 2002)
A marriage: a collection
or a system?
A Degree program?
Source: http://www.yaseenkhan.org
Honey, are we a
collection
or a system?
I hope we are
a system!
A System versus a Collection

Systems Thinking:
The Iceberg View
Events
Patterns of
Behavior Over Time
Systemic Structural Causes
Increased Leverage and
Opportunity for Learning
and Change

Systems Thinking:
The Iceberg View
Events
Patterns of
Behavior Over Time
Systemic Structural Causes
Reactive: We react to each event as it happens
Responsive: We try to respond to patterns
Generative: We take the time
to understand how the
dynamic interaction of
variables generates behavior

Systems Thinking:
Interconnections
•Three ways to look at systems:
•A collection of parts
•Parts in interaction with one
another
•Parts embedded in a system

What is Thinking?
“Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental models
and then simulating them in order to draw conclusions and
make decisions.” – Barry Richmond
Understanding the concept of a tree requires more information
than is available through sensory experience alone. It’s built on
past experiences and knowledge.
Source: Jeremy Merritt

Mental Models
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by Dave Hosford

Mental Models
Image Source: Sports in Wisconsin

Mental Models
Image Source: The Baby Proofing Blog

Mental Models
• Embedded assumptions, generalizations,
photographs/images that impact how we see the
world
• Determine how we take action
• Action is taken by working with our individual
mental models and “turning the mirror inward to
unearth our internal images of the world”
• In order to change mental model, one must be
open to the deficiency in his or her way of
viewing the world

Changing Thinking
Fold your arms the
way you would if you
were bored, with one
falling over the other.
Uncross your arms and
fold them again, the
other way, with the
other arm on top.
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons by CJ Berry

Thinking in Systems
“The problems we
have created in the
world today will not be
solved by the level of
thinking that created
them.”
--Albert Einstein
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by mansionwb

“Systems thinking is a way of looking at, learning
about, and understanding complex situations”
(Wilson 2004, p.7)
“Systems thinking is a way of seeing and talking
about reality that helps us better understand and
work with systems to influence the quality of our
lives” (Kim 1999, p.2)
 Systems thinking is a ‘new way of thinking’ to
understand and manage complex problems (Bosch
et al. 2007; Cabrera et al. 2008)
Definitions of Systems Thinking

The Torn Net

© Tim Pettry, 2008
Let’s get started

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Economic crisis!
• Due to the recent economic crisis, it has become apparent that our
current system of numbers is no longer working.
• To address this crisis, a new set of symbols has been created to replace
the current numbers 1 – 10.
• It is imperative that we learn these new symbols as quickly as possible.
• Our world as we know it, depends on each of us to do our best!
Click

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Let’s do it!
1. -
2. -
3. -
4. -
5. -
6. -
7. -
8. -
9. -
10. - X
Take 45
seconds to
memorize
these new
symbols for
the
numbers
1 – 10.
30
seconds
left
15
seconds
left
54312
That was easy!
45444341423520
Click once
when
ready.Now
wait for
45
seconds.

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Write down as
many of the new
symbols as you can
remember?
Click when ready
To check answers

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
1. -
2. -
3. -
4. -
5. -
6. -
7. -
8. -
9. -
10. - X
Click to
discuss
when
ready
Check your answers

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Discussion
• How many people got all 10 symbols correct?
• 9?
• 8?
• 7?
• 6?
• 5 and below?
• Were you distracted by the countdown on the
left?
• Are there ever distractions when we are trying to
learn?
Click

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Discussion continued
• Which symbols do most people get right?
 1 – due to repetition
10 – Its different and it represents the Roman numeral
“10”
 5 – Its different
 7 – Its similar to the number 7
• Most people look for a pattern and have
difficulty finding it in a short amount of time.
• We are looking at the pieces rather than the
whole.
• This is sometimes referred to as “Silo Thinking”
Click

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Now, for you linear thinkers…
1 2 4 5 6 7 8 93 10
X
Does this help?
Click
When
ready,
click

©
Tim
Pettr
y,
2008
Let’s think lean!
1 2 3
4 5 6
7 8 9
10 - X
Is this radical
thinking?
So it must be
Common
Sense!
Systems View
No, everyone
is familiar with
this.
How many
of you
thought of
this?
Lean thinking
is all about
learning to see
how things are
connected
within an
overall system.
When
ready,
click
Click
The outline around each number
represents the new symbol!

Image Source: Waters Foundation

Modeling Systems
“Essentially, all models
are wrong, but some
are useful.”
--George Box (Emeritus
Professor of Statistics,
University of Wisconsin-
Madison)
Image Source: Wikipedia

Modeling Systems
We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental
models. Systems modeling allows us to move from “what” to
“what if” and make our thinking visible
The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows,
and loops

Stocks
• Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements
that you can see, feel, count, or measure
• Stocks do not have to be physical

Flows
• Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow
• A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within
the system

Loops
• A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the
flows into or out of that same stock
• Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep
a stock at a certain level or within a certain range
• Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has
the ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of
itself

Systems Thinking
Case Study
Crop Damaging by Insects

• When an insect is eating a crop, the conventional
response is to spray the crop with a pesticide designed to
kill that insect.
• Putting aside the limited effectiveness of some pesticides
and the water and soil pollution they can cause, imagine a
perfect pesticide that kills all of the insects against which it
is used and which has no side effects on air, water, or soil.
• Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer or
company whose crops are being eaten better off?
ReducingCrop Damageby Insects:

Insects
Damaging Crops
Pesticide
Application
O
If we represent the thinking used by those
applying the pesticides, it would look like this:
1. The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an “s” means they
change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and
an “o” means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then
the other goes down (or vice versa).
2. This diagram is read “a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes
the number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite
direction.”
3. The belief being represented here is that “as the amount of pesticide
applied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases”.

Total number of
Insects damaging crop
Pesticide
Application
S
O
S
Number of Insect A
Damaging Crop
Number of Insect B
Number of Insect B
Damaging Crop
S
S
O
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

4. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the
short term.
5. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the
problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that
formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore.
6. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the
population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with
it.
7. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it
eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of
the other insects, insects B).
8. Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes
and continue to damage the crops.

So now how do you solve the problem of
Insect B damaging the crop?
Find the solution…..

Problem Solving: Pest Control
Insect “A” Population Insect “B” Population

“Seek and Destroy” Model
Is this system really that simple?

Systems Thinking-
Strategic Overlook of
Organisation

“The nicest thing about not planning is
that failure comes as a complete
surprise, and is not preceded by a
period of worry and depression.”
-- John Perton

STRATEGY
The word strategy derives from the
Greek "στρατηγία" (strategia), "office of
general, command, general-ship",
 A strategy is a course of action.

 Strategic management
 The process of identifying and executing the
organization’s mission by matching its
capabilities with the demands of its
environment.
© 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 3–92

VISION
A general statement of its
intended direction that evokes
emotional feelings in organization
members.

“What are you doing?”
“I am cutting
wood”
“I am building
that castle”

Business Mission
 Mission
 Spells out who the company is, what it does,
and where it’s headed.
3–95

SWOT Analysis
A SWOT analysis is a strategic planning tool used to
evaluate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and
threats. A SWOT analysis informs the goal-setting
process and provides a context for future strategic
planning discussions.
Strengths and weaknesses are internal to an
organization.
Opportunities and threats originate from outside the
organization.

External Analysis
 Identify strategic opportunities and threats in
the operating environment.
Macro-environment National
Immediate (Industry)

Internal Analysis
 Identify strengths
 Quality and quantity of resources available
 Distinctive competencies
 Identify weaknesses
 Inadequate resources
 Managerial and
organizational deficiencies

Strengths and Weaknesses
Opportunities and Threats
(SWOT Analysis)
Strategic Choice
Business
Functional
Global
Corporate
SWOT and Strategic Choice

Types of Strategies
 Corporate-level strategy
 Identifies the portfolio of businesses that, in total, comprise
the company and the ways in which these businesses
relate to each other.
 Diversification strategy implies that the firm will
expand by adding new product lines.
 Vertical integration strategy means the firm
expands by, perhaps, producing its own raw
materials, or selling its products direct.
 Consolidation strategy reduces the company’s
size
 Geographic expansion strategy takes the
company abroad. 3–101

 Business-level/competitive strategy
 Identifies how to build and strengthen the business’s long-
term competitive position in the marketplace.
 Cost leadership: the enterprise aims to become the
low-cost leader in an industry.
 Differentiation: a firm seeks to be unique in its
industry along dimensions that are widely valued by
buyers.
 Focus: a firm seeks to carve out a market niche,
and compete by providing a product or service
customers can get in no other way.
3–102
Types of Strategies cont-

 Functional strategies
 Identify the basic courses of action that each
department will pursue in order to help the
business attain its competitive goals.
3–103
Types of Strategies cont-

IfyouFailToPlan,
YouPlantoFail.

Systems Thinking:
Tools & Concepts
Context: messy
situaDon
YOU…The
Observer

Unlock the power to think differently

Systems Thinking Vs
Other types of
thinking

OptimistInternational
146
MIND MAPPING
• Definition : A visual picture of a group of ideas,
• concepts or issues.
• Purpose :
• Unblock our thinking.
• See an entire idea or several ideas on one
sheet of paper.
• See how ideas relate to one another.
• Look at things in a new and different way.
• Look at an idea in depth.

What are mind maps?
 Mind maps are not spider diagrams.
 A mind map is a diagram used to
represent themes of understanding
linked a central key word or idea
 Mind maps are, by definition, a graphical
method of taking notes. Their visual
basis helps one to distinguish words or
ideas, often with colours and symbols.
 They generally take a hierarchical or tree
branch format, with ideas branching into
their subsections

Key features of mind maps
 The process starts around a central idea
or picture
 Key themes are established through
branches with sub branches
 Key terminology is used
 Single words or phrases
 Themes are connected through colours
 Images reinforce meaning
 It allows you to freely associate and link
ideas

Not just pretty pictures
Mind mapping is about the ability to
analyse and make connections, to use
knowledge effectively, to solve problems
and think effectively.
It requires skill to search out meaning and
impose structure.
It goes beyond learning information by rote
and equips students to deal systematically
with problems and adopt a critical attitude
to argument and information.

How to create a mind map
 Start with a large piece of paper in a
landscape position.
 Create a large colourful central image
 Create main branches for ideas in
different colours ( use the same colour
for sub branches)
 Use key words only and adapt the size
of the word based on importance

How to create a mind map
 Use images that remind you of the key
topics ( you don’t have to be an artist)
 Use arrows and symbols to connect
ideas
 Leave space to add to your mind map
 Find a style which works for you.

Optimist International 161
Mind Mapping Exercise
• Over-sized blank sheet of paper.
• Select word, phrase or problem statement
to serve as a focus for discussion.
• Print it in the middle of the paper. Enclose
it in a box or oval.
• Let a word pop out of your mind.
Print it anywhere on the paper.
• Underline it and connect the line with the
problem statement (or key phrase or word)
you are working.
• Record the next idea and connect it to
original focus point or the prior thought.
• Continue printing and connecting words.
1. Initial
Tumble of
Ideas.
Think
freely!!

EXAMPLE

-- Helpful Hints
 Keep your printing large
and easy to read.
 Feel free to use symbols
and or pictures.
 Have some fun using
different colors.
A


Rich picture
Dr Niraj Thurairajah
Birmingham City University

Overview
• What is a rich picture?
• Elements of rich picture
• Techniques to create good rich picture
• Examples
• Your activity

What is a rich picture?
• A cartoon-like representation that identifies all the
stakeholders, their concerns, and some of the structure
underlying the work context
(Monk and Howard, 1998)
• A pictorial summary of the actual situation in the “systems
world” based on inquiries or observations of the “real world”
(Patching, 1990)

Components of rich picture
• Represent the following
• Structure
• Process
• Concerns

Structure
• Aspect of the work context that are slow to change. Such as;
• Stages of construction
• Firms/ organisations
• Geographical localities
• Stakeholders
• People

Process
• Refers to the transformations that occur in the process of the
work. Such as the flow of
• Information/data
• Goods and services
• Other resources

Concerns
• Perspectives/viewpoints of each individual’s/firm’s motivation
• Captures different perspectives of the theme
• Identifies tensions between stakeholders, a useful preliminary
step to identifying the conflicting concerns and how they may
be resolved.

Dos and don’ts
• Include structure
• Include process
• Include concerns
• Use any pictorial
or textual device
that suits
• Include only enough structure to allow
you to record the process and concerns.
• Do not attempt to record all the details of
process; a broad brush approach is usually
all that is needed
• Present the concern in a thought bubble
• There is no correct way of drawing a rich
picture. There are as many styles as
analysts and the same analyst will find
different styles useful in different
situations
Element Comment

Rich picture of the construction of the Humber Bridge (adapted from Stewart and Fortune, 1994)

Development project: Rich
Picture
• Produce a rich picture of how the different professions,
stakeholders and processes fit into a typical construction
process.
• For your activity, consider rich diagram as a pictorial
representation of ‘construction process’ that identifies situations,
stake holders, their actions/ interaction and the outcome over
time.
• Due to the progressive nature of construction projects, this
mapping activity can be done in a chronological manner
• Acknowledge the complexity and characteristics of a typical
construction project

Decision Making,
Learning and Creativity

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Decision Making
• Decision Making
• The process by which managers respond to opportunities and
threats that confront them by analyzing options and making
determinations about
specific organizational
goals and courses of
action.

SWOT
Strengths Weaknesses
1. What are the advantages of your
plan? 2.What will go well?
Consider this from your point of
view; be realistic.
1. What could be improved? 2. What is
done badly?
3. Should anything be avoided?
Again, be realistic.
Opportunities Threats
1. What are the good chances that
arise from your course of action? 2.
What good things happens as a
result of your decision?
1. What obstacles might you face? 2.
What might other people want you to do?
187

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The Nature of Managerial
Decision Making
• Decisions in response to opportunities
• occurs when managers respond to ways to improve organizational
performance to benefit customers, employees, and other
stakeholder groups
• Decisions in response to threats
• events inside or outside the organization are adversely affecting
organizational performance

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Decision Making
Programmed Decision
• Routine, virtually automatic decision making that follows established
rules or guidelines.
• Managers have made the same decision many times before
• Little ambiguity involved

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Decision Making
Non-Programmed Decisions
• Nonroutine decision made in response to unusual or novel
opportunities and threats.
• The are no rules to follow since the decision is new.
• Decisions are made based on information, and a manager’s intuition, and
judgment.

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Decision Making
• Intuition
• feelings, beliefs, and hunches that come readily to mind, require little
effort and information gathering and result in on-the-spot decisions

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Decision Making
• Reasoned judgment
• decisions that take time and effort to make and result from
careful information gathering, generation of alternatives, and
evaluation of
alternatives

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Question?
Which decision model assumes the decision maker can identify
and evaluate all possible alternatives?
A. Neo-classical
B. Classical
C. Administrative
D. practical

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The Classical Model
Classical Model of Decision Making
• A rigid model of decision making that assumes the
decision maker can identify and evaluate all possible
alternatives and their consequences and rationally
choose the most appropriate course of action.
• Optimum decision
• The most appropriate decision in light of what
managers believe to be the most desirable future
consequences for their organization.

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TheClassicalModelof Decision Making
Figure 7.1

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The Administrative Model
Administrative Model of Decision Making
• An approach to decision making that explains why decision making is
inherently uncertain and risky and why managers can rarely make
decisions in the manner prescribed by the classical model

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The Administrative Model
Administrative Model of Decision Making
• Bounded rationality
• There is a large number of alternatives and available information can be so
extensive that managers cannot consider it all.
• Decisions are limited by people’s cognitive limitations.
• Incomplete information
• Because of risk and uncertainty, ambiguity, and time constraints

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Why InformationIs Incomplete
Figure 7.2

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Causes of Incomplete Information
• Risk
• Present when managers know the possible outcomes of a particular
course of action and can assign probabilities to them.
• Uncertainty
• Probabilities cannot be given for outcomes and the future is
unknown.

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Ambiguous Information
• Information whose meaning is
not clear allowing it to be
interpreted in multiple or
conflicting ways.
Figure 7.3
Young Woman
or Old Woman

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• Time constraints and information costs
• managers have neither the time nor money to search for all possible
alternatives and evaluate potential consequences

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• Satisficing
• Searching for and choosing an acceptable, or satisfactory response
to problems and opportunities, rather than trying to make the best
decision.

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• Managers explore a limited number of options and choose an
acceptable decision rather than the optimum decision.
• This is the typical response of managers when dealing with
incomplete information.

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Six Steps in DecisionMaking
Figure 7.4

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Decision Making Steps
Step 1. Recognize Need for a Decision
• Sparked by an event such as environment changes.
• Managers must first realize that a decision must be
made.
Step 2. Generate Alternatives
• Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of
action.
• If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision
is poor.
• It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers
need to look for new ideas.

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Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives
• What are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative?
• Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate.

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Criteria
Legality Is the alternative legal and will not violate any
domestic and international laws or
government regulations?
Ethicalness Is the alternative ethical and will not bring
harm stakeholders unnecessarily?
Economic Feasibility Can organization’s performance goals sustain
this alternative?
Practicality Does the management have the capabilities
and resources required to implement the
alternative?
Step 3. Evaluate alternatives

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Figure 7.5
General
Criteria for
Evaluating
Possible
Courses of
Action

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Step 4. Choose Among Alternatives
• Rank the various alternatives and make a decision
• Managers must be sure all the information available is brought to
bear on the problem or issue at hand

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Step 5. Implement Chosen Alternative
• Managers must now carry out the alternative.
• Often a decision is made and not implemented.
Step 6. Learn From Feedback
• Managers should consider what went right and wrong
with the decision and learn for the future.
• Without feedback, managers do not learn from
experience and will repeat the same mistake over.

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Discussion Question?
Which step in the decision making process is the most
important?
A. Generating alternatives
B. Choosing an alternative
C. Evaluating alternatives
D. Learning from feedback

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Feedback Procedure
1. Compare what actually happened to what was expected to
happen as a result of the decision
2. Explore why any expectations for the decision were not met
3. Derive guidelines that will help in future decision making

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Types of Cognitive Biases
• Prior Hypothesis Bias
• Allowing strong prior beliefs about a relationship between variables
to influence decisions based on these beliefs even when evidence
shows they are wrong.
• Representativeness
• The decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small
sample or a single incident.

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Types of Cognitive Biases
• Illusion of Control
• The tendency to overestimates one’s own ability to control activities
and events.
• Escalating Commitment
• Committing considerable resources to project and then committing
more even if evidence shows the project is failing.

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Team Decision Making
• Superior to individual making
• Choices less likely to fall victim to bias
• Able to draw on combined skills of group members
• Improve ability to generate feasible alternatives

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218
team Decision Making
• Allows managers to process more information
• Managers affected by decisions agree to cooperate

7-
219
• Potential Disadvantages
• Can take much longer than individuals to make decisions
• Can be difficult to get two or more managers to agree because of
different interests and preferences
• Can be undermined by biases

7-
220
Groupthink
• Pattern of faulty and biased decision making that occurs in groups
whose members strive for agreement among themselves at the
expense of accurately assessing information relevant to a decision

7-
221
Improved team Decision Making
• Devil’s Advocacy
• Critical analysis of a preferred alternative to ascertain its strengths
and weaknesses before it is implemented
• One member of the group who acts as the devil’s advocate by
critiquing the way the group identified alternatives and pointing out
problems with the alternative selection.

7-
222
Improved team Decision Making
• Dialectical Inquiry
• Two different groups are assigned to the problem and
each group is responsible for evaluating alternatives and
selecting one of them
• Top managers then hear each group present their
alternatives and each group can critique the other.
• Promote Diversity
• Increasing the diversity in a group may result in
consideration of a wider set of alternatives.

7-
223
Devil’sAdvocacyand DialecticalInquiry
Figure 7.7

A Butterfly’s Lesson
”One day, a
small opening
appeared in a
cocoon; a man
sat and
watched for
the butterfly
for several
hours as it
struggled to
force its body
through that
little hole.
239

Then, it seems
to stop making
any progress.
It appeared as
if it had gotten
as far as it
could and it
could not go
any further.
240

So the man
decided to help
the butterfly: he
took a pair of
scissors and
opened the
cocoon.
The butterfly
then emerged
easily.
But it had a
withered body, it
was tiny and
shriveled wings.
241

The man
continued to
watch because
he expected
that, at any
moment, the
wings would
open, enlarge
and expand, to
be able to
support the
butterfly’s
body, and
become firm.
242

Neither
happened!
In fact, the
butterfly spent
the rest of its
life crawling
around with a
withered body
and shriveled
wings. It never
was able to fly.
243

What the man, in his
kindness and his goodwill
did not understand was
that the restricting
cocoon and the struggle
required for the butterfly
to get through the tiny
opening, were God’s way
of forcing fluid from the
body of the butterfly into
its wings, so that it would
be ready for flight once it
achieved its freedom from
the cocoon.
244

Sometimes,
struggles are
exactly what we
need in our life.
If God allowed us to
go through our life
without any
obstacles, it would
cripple us. We
would not be as
strong as we could
have been. Never
been able to fly.
245

What is a Problem?
Desired
Condition
Actual
Condition
- Problem=
Want Have- Problem=
Subject Definition
246

What do you do for a one-time
problem?
Monday
Subject Definition
247

Tuesday ThursdayWednesday Friday Saturday
Problem
But What If the Problem
Recurs?
Subject Definition
248

 What, specifically, is a problem?
Problems can be classified in three ways:
 Problems that have already happened
 Problems that lie ahead
 Problems you want to prevent from happening
Problem Solving: Defined
249

There are three ways to approach problems.
 You can stall or delay until a decision is no
longer necessary, or until it has become an
even greater problem.
 You can make a snap decision, off the top
of your head, with little or no thinking or
logic.
 You can use a professional approach and
solve problems based on sound decision-
making practices.
Approach to Problem Solving
250

 Think of an individual that you think is good
at solving problems.
 Describe the traits, characteristics, and
behaviors that made the individual a good
problem solver.
The Ideal Problem Solver
251

Some abilities of Good Problem Solvers:
• Keen Observation
• Establish links, similarities and differences
• Look at the other side
• Transcend conventional rules
• Combine two elements to produce new ideas
252

In order to find sustainable solutions to our
problems, we will:
 Encourage everyone to participate.
 Encourage new ideas without criticism, since new
concepts come from outside our normal perception.
 Build on each other’s ideas.
 Whenever possible, use data to facilitate problem
solving.
 Remember that solving problems is a creative process—
new ideas and new understanding often result.
Steps to Problem Solving
253

 Not my problem.
 Don’t ask me.
 What now? Some well-meaning employees can’t seem
to mature into independent problem solvers.
 Straight liner. Straight liners know how to
solve straightforward problems.
 Creative problem solver.
261

Problem Solving within an individual
Exercise: Problem Solving Styles Questionnaire
262

The Problem-Solving-Decision-Making Model
263

 PURPOSE:
 To develop the awareness and the skills
necessary to solve problems creatively.
273

274
 The creative person uses information to form new
ideas.
 The real key to creative problem solving is what you do
with the knowledge.
 Creative problem solving requires an attitude that
allows you to search for new ideas and use your
knowledge and experience.
 Change perspective and use knowledge to make the
ordinary extraordinary and the usual commonplace.

276
“Creative problem solving is - looking at the same
thing as everyone else and thinking something
different.”
Adapted from a famous quote from a former
Nobel prize winner, Albert Szent-Gyorgi.

 Why don’t we think creatively more often?
 What are the barriers that get in our way?
279

280
 Time
 Why change?
 Usually don’t need to be creative
 Habit
 Routine
 Haven’t been taught to be creative
What are some other barriers that get in our way?

281
Mental blocks are
reasons (attitudes)
why we don’t “think
something
different.”

282
1. The _______ answer.
2. That’s not _________.
3. __________ the rules.
4. Be ______________.
5. ________ is frivolous.
6. That’s not my _____.
7. ________ ambiguity.
8. Don’t be _________.
9. __________is wrong.
10. I’m not __________.

283
1. The right answer.
Only one?

284
2. That’s not logical.

285
3. Follow the rules.
Why rules should be
challenged:
1. We make rules based
on reasons that make a lot
of sense.
2. We follow these rules.
3. Time passes, and
things change.
4. The original reasons
for the generation of these
rules may no longer exist,
but because the rules are
still in place, we continue
to follow them.

286
4. Be practical.

287
4. Be practical.
5. Play is frivolous.
“When do
you get
your best
ideas?”

289
6. That’s not my area.
7. Avoid ambiguity.
AMBIGUITY

290
7. Avoid ambiguity.
8. Don’t be foolish.

291
7. Avoid ambiguity.
9. To err is wrong.

292
7. Avoid ambiguity.
9. To err is wrong.
10. I’m not creative.

293
How can we be more creative?
Jot down at least 3 ideas that come to
your mind.

294
1. Start small trying to discover new ways to be
creative, ___________.
2. __________ to abandon the old, obsolete ways of
doing things and explore new ways.
3. It is not possible to change the way we think about
everything. ________ in which to try creative
thinking techniques.
4. Understand that creative thinking requires
__________, but it is worth it!
5. Remember that creative thinking is both _______
and__________!!!

295
6. _________ on what you can reasonably
do. Trying to do too many things at once
compromises the effort and may take
away from the results.
7. _________creative thinking for today as
well as tomorrow.
8. Include other people in the creative
thinking process with you.
__________fosters creative thinking.
9. Include _______ and ______ in your
creative thinking process as well as
___________.
10.Keep ________________.

296
1. What if…?
2. How can we improve…?
3. How will the Optimist Member and/or the
community benefit?
4. Are we forgetting anything?
5. What’s the next step?

297
6. What can we do better…?
7. What do you think about…?
8. What should we add?
9. What should we eliminate?
10. What other ideas do you have...?

298
BRAINSTORMING
Purpose:
To generate a large number
of ideas in a short period of
time.

 Brainstorming is a technique of getting a
large number of ideas from a group of people
in a short time.
 It can used effectively in numerous situations
and has relevance for us in problem solving:
to identify problems, sort out causes from
effects, and come up with creative solutions.
299

Brainstorming
• Avoid criticism
• Free wheel
• Go for quantity
• Record
• Don’t Judge your team mates
• Incubate
300

 Listing:
 Listing of ideas as soon as they are said.
 Word Association
 Finding a new idea or slogan through associating words
 Clustering or Mapping
 Clustering, like free-word association, is a brainstorming
technique to help you spill out flashes of inspiration in
unplanned relationships.
 Free Writing
 Free writing can be guided or unguided. It is a good
technique for bringing ideas to the surface
301

Steps to Brainstorming
• Review guidelines
• Warm up
• Volunteer to write ideas
• Be a cheerleader and make it fun
• Encourage wild ideas
• Incubate
303

Case Study
You are the manager of a division and you hear
from various sources that one of your
Supervisors is pushing employees beyond
their limit. He never listens to what the
employees have to say, is extremely
authoritarian and as a result the morale of the
group is very low.
304

Root cause analysis is the process of finding the
underlying reasons that is causing a problem.
What is Root Cause Analysis?
Fixing the root cause will permanently
remove the problem.
Subject Definition
305

5 Why Technique applied to
Root Cause Analysis
306

It is:
• Root Cause Analysis tool
• Part of the Problem Solving Techniques
• The outcome of the 5 Why’s analysis is
identifying the reason(s) why the problem
originated
It is not:
• A complicated technique
• The resolution of the problem itself
What is (or is not) 5 Why’s?Subject Definition
307

The Why Graph
Subject Definition
308

• Why did the machine stop?
• Why there was an overload?
• Why was it not lubricated sufficiently?
• Why was it not pumping sufficiently
• Why was the shaft worn out?
Five Why
309

Five Why - helps find point of origin
• Why - keeps running out of parts
• Why - low inventory held
• Why - parts listed as ‘low turnover’
• Why - stores not told of higher usage
• Why - communication breakdown
Problem: A worker is idle for long periods
310

 What are some ways that we can think outside
the box to reach a creative solution?
 What can we do to maximize the effects of
brainstorming (before, during, and after)?
 Use the random word method
 Don’t re-invent the wheel!
Thinking Outside the Box
312

“Disneyland will never be
completed, as long as there
is imagination left in the
world.”
Walt Disney
313

Food for Thought
“If you don't ask the right questions, you
don't get the right answers. A question
asked in the right way often points to its own
answer. Asking questions is the ABC of
diagnosis. Only the inquiring mind solves
problems.”
Edward Hodnett
314

Systems thinking for analyzing problems

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