Presentation at MREA Energy Fair 2015. High utility rates create significant opportunities for residential PV in Michigan. Understand everything you ever need to know about going solar: from estimating the size of a PV system for your location to calculating the financial and environmental benefits of PV on your home.

1. Michigan Solar Market Potential
Abhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| MichiganTechnological University

2. Houghton Winters
Source: Mining Journal
Source: Mining Gazette
Source: Michigan Tech Alumni
Source: Mining Journal
Source: boniashburn.com

3. OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWEST…
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013
[$/KWH]
MI Average: $0.14/kWh
Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual
Reports 2013

4. Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates
by State (2013)
State
Average Price
[$/kWh]
Hawaii $0.37
Houghton $0.21-$0.24
New York $0.19
Alaska $0.19
Connecticut $0.18
Vermont $0.18
New Hampshire $0.17
California $0.16
New England $0.16
Middle Atlantic $0.16
Massachusetts $0.16
New Jersey $0.16
Michigan $0.15 Source: www.eia.gov

5. MichiganTech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center

6. Location:Tree Cover and SolarWindow
Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com
Best Summer Angle: 30*
Best Winter Angle: 60*
Best Average Angle: 47*

7. Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo
Source: nsidc.org
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
109
121
133
145
157
169
181
193
205
217
229
241
253
265
277
289
301
313
325
337
349
361
W/m^2
Day of the Year
Solar Irradiation and Albedo
S_Horizontal (W/m^2) Albedo (W/m^2)
Source: MTU KRC

8. Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1
107
213
319
425
531
637
743
849
955
1,061
1,167
1,273
1,379
1,485
1,591
1,697
1,803
1,909
2,015
2,121
2,227
2,333
2,439
2,545
2,651
2,757
2,863
2,969
3,075
3,181
3,287
3,393
3,499
3,605
3,711
3,817
EnergyProduced(Wh)
Hours since 12:00 Am Nov 1 2013
PV System Output Under Snowy Conditions
45* 30* 15*
Shedding from 45*
Source: MTU KRC

9. Source: MTU KRC Data

10. Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day*
Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh
Source: pveducation.org
*Source: MTU KRC Data

11. Source: pveducation.org
California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day*
Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh

12. Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance =
only 8% year total

13. Source: Michigan Public Service Commission

17. Source: www.nrel.gov

18. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•6000 [kWh] (source)
Annual
Consumption :
•6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh]
Daily
Consumption:
•3.8 [h]
Average Daily
Sun Hours

19. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
• Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate
Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size
• System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500
=$18,900System Cost
• 30% of system costs = $18,900 –
30%*18,900 = $13,448
Federal Tax
Rebate

20. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•Energy*Rates =
6000*0.21 = $1,260
Annual
Savings
•System Costs / Annual
Savings = 11 years
Payback
Period

22. Utility Fuel Source Summary
Fuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region
Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43%
Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.08% 25.36%
Gas 27.57% 5.50% 8.90% 9.77%
Oil 0.67% 0.10% 0.50% 0.55%
Hydroelectric 7.07% 3.40% 9.55% 0.65%
Biofuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.49%
Biomass 0.92% 0.10% 0.41% 0.45%
Wind 4.11% 2.80% 2.50% 2.75%
Wood 0.48% 0.10% 0.44% 0.49%
Other 0.71% 1.10% 0.50% 0.44%
Solar 0.20% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%
Source:
OCREA Fuel
Mix Report
Source:
MPSC
Regional
Average Fuel
Mix
Disclosure
Source: EIA
Total Power
Industry Fuel
Sources

23. Currently all MI utilities are on track to
meet RES Compliance*
Phased integration of renewables 50%
cheaper than new coal generation
facilities.
*Source: MPSC Report on RESCompliance
*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy
Source
Impact of MI PA 295

24. Benefits of Renewables
 Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth Report on
Green Jobs says renewable energy sector job creation = 3% of all private
sector employment in state
 International Energy Agency Report on Energy Security says renewable
energy systems reduce supply disruptions and reliance on imported fuel.

25. Actual Quote: “The only green that matters,
is the color of my $$$$$”
(Obviously, not a philosopher)

26. Simple ROI Calculation

27. Population
Aggregate
MW Solar
People
Per
Panel
Houghton 30,000 0.003 2,500
California 38,041,430 1892.05 5
Texas 26,059,203 185.47 35
Florida 19,317,568 93.91 51
New
Mexico 2,085,538 151.7 3
Arizona 6,553,255 775.59 2

28. Factors Influencing Solar Adoption
 Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]
 If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current
sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al]
 Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and
actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of
adoption. [Arkesteijn et al]
 The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six
months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile
radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]

29. Steps to Solar
 How much am I consuming?
 Reading your electricity bill
 Can I install?
 Energy Policy?
 How much sun at my location?
 How much does it cost?
 System size?
 Loan payments?
 How much will I save?
 Energy Rates?
 How much will rates increase?
 Performance?
 Effects of snow?
 System degradation over time?
 Environmental Impact?
 Alternatives?
 Energy Efficiency savings?

31. Steps to Solar
 How much am I consuming?
 Reading your electricity bill
 Can I install?
 Energy Policy?
 How much sun at my location?
 How much does it cost?
 System size?
 Loan payments?
 How much will I save?
 Energy Rates?
 How much will rates increase?
 Performance?
 Effects of snow?
 System degradation over time?
 Environmental Impact?
 Alternatives?
 Energy Efficiency savings?

33. http://solarizehoughton.org/resources/

34. 2013
2014
2015

35. Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:-
~30kW
Summer
2014:
60kW
added
Fall 2015:
+200kW
expected.

36. Large majority of installed net metered
customer generation is Solar.
Source: MPSCAnnual Net Metering Report 2014
Figure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installed CapacityFigure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installations
Growth of Solar in Michigan

37. Source: National Renewable Energy Labs
*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy
Source

38. OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWEST…
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013
[$/KWH]
MI Average: $0.14/kWh
Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual
Reports 2013
PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates

39. PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWESTENERGY
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATE
INCREASE 2001-2013
MI Average: 74%
Source: MPSC Utility Rates Summary

40. PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption
MI Average: 8MWh/Year
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWESTENERGY
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC
CONSUMPTION 2013 [MWH/YEAR]Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual
Reports 2013

41. Utility Rank by rates
Rank by rate
Increase
Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank
OCREA 1 1 1 1
ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2
UPPCO 3 2 4 3
WEPCO 5 4 6 4
PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5
ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6
DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7
GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8
CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9
MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10
XCEL 15 13 8 11
CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12
WPS 16 10 12 12
AEP 17 7 15 14
TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14
CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16
THUMB 13 17 17 17
PV Residential Solar Market Potential

42. Utility Rank by rates
Rank by rate
Increase
Rank by
Consumption
Aggregate Rank
Rank by % Net-
Generation
OCREA 1 1 1 1 1
ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 2
UPPCO 3 2 4 3 4
WEPCO 5 4 6 4 11
PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 5
ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 6
DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 7
GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 8
CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 12
MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 9
XCEL 15 13 8 11 14
CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 N/A
WPS 16 10 12 12 12
AEP 17 7 15 14 13
TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 N/A
CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 10
THUMB 13 17 17 17 3
PV Residential Solar Market Potential

43. http://solar.maps.umn.edu/app/
LIDAR Mapping of Solar Potential
for the entire state of MN

44. Source: NREL Study
On solar soft costs

45. What happens when net-metering programs end?

46. MPSC SolarWorking Group:Value Of Solar? (VOS)
1. Expand current program till 50MW aggregate
2. Buy all, credit all
3. Buy net, credit net
Source: MPSC SolarWorking
Group Report, June 2014

47. Source: CAISO

48. Source: EIA

50. (VOS):Value of Solar
VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE

51. (VOS):Value of Solar
VOS used in Minnesota

52. (VOS):Value of Solar
VOS used in Austin,Texas

53. Summary
 Michigan Net-Metering program largely untapped (only 94% un-utilized)
 High electric rates offer good value proposition for solar
 DIY packages/software tools to reduce soft costs
 Michigan solar manufacturers and distributors to reduce hardware costs
 VOS methodology aims to find ‘fair’ costs of adding solar.
 Champion solar through passive data-driven community networking (free calculator)
 Consider promoting efficiency as an accessible alternative to solar.
 Abhi is awesome

54. Contact Information
Abhilash Kantamneni
221 Rekhi Hall
Michigan Tech
1400 Townsend Drive
Houghton MI
akantamn@mtu.edu
@akantamn
www.Abhilash.me
www.SolarizeHoughton.org

55. Bonus Slides!

56. Cabbages and Solar?

57. Cabbages and Solar?
 Sell Price: $0.21 each
 Buying Price: $0.03
each

59. Electric Utility Markets are a
“Zero-Sum Game”
Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission +
$$Distribution + $$Administration +
$$Return on Equity

60. Working Group
Recommendations
Expand Net
Metering to state
wide 50MW
Credit on net
generation
Credit on
generation
Source: MPSC SolarWorking
Group Report, June 2014

62. Organic cabbages?
 Healthier
 Locally grown
 No new roads
 No large farms

64. Storage: Generation Shifting
Credit: climatetechwiki.org

65. Storage: Load Shifting
Credit: Scientific American

66. Reliable, affordable and
sustainable energy for all
Goals:

67. Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE

68. Public Awareness
Technological Maturity
Regulatory Action
Legislative Support
Market Drivers

69. How to Bring Change:
Homeboy Solar
Industries
• Increases
Sustainability
• Reduced Prison
Recidivism
• Saves taxpayer
money

70. Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton

71. Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:-
~30kW
Summer
2014:
60kW
added
Fall 2015:
+200kW
expected.

72. Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015)
Buying
Club
Workshop
Public
Seminars
DIY Kits

73. Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance =
only 8% year total

74. Summer Production:
77 Sq. miles
Winter Production:
1,732 Sq. miles