1.
3G / 4G / XG IN UKRAINE

2.
3G in Ukraine
2
− How much have we lost?
− How much can we win?
On February 23, the National Commission for State Regulation of Communications and
Information sold licenses in 3G standard. The winners of the tender were three major
mobile operators.

3.
OUTLINE
1. Main questions
2. Evolution of mobile technologies
− Where is Ukraine?
3. The impact of broadband on the economy
− Contribution to GDP
− Contribution to employment
4. Global trends 2020
5. New products & services
6. Internet providers
3

4.
Evolution of Mobile Technologies
4
Mln subs
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
3G
2G
4G LTE
???
Source: GSMA Intelligence, OpenSignal.com
March 2015: 124 countries
with LTE

5.
Evolution of mobile technologies
5
Weak Signal Strong Signal
Result 2015
Source: OpenSignal.com
Although UkrTelecom obtained 3G
license in 2005, it seems reluctant to
develop the new standard from zero.

6.
4G Speed VS Other Technologies
6
3
7
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
USA Saudi
Arabia
Spain Finland Argentina UK JapanTaiwanPoland Australia
4,4
0,2
1,5
9,3
2G WiFi3GAverage
4G LTE
Average download speed (Mbps)
Source: OpenSignal. State of LTE report (March, 2015)

7.
What Have We Lost?
7
Benefits of high speed broadband:
1. Increased economic growth
− Direct investments in infrastructure
− Productivity gains in firms
− Higher household income
2. Job creation
− Direct jobs
− Indirect jobs
− Induced jobs
3. Public welfare improvements
Source: Pellegrino and Klemann (2012)
We have lost much more than a
possibility to watch funny videos on
YouTube

8.
Contribution to GDP
8
Kohman
2011
Qiang
2009
ITU Universe
2011
Czernich
2011
Kongaut
2014
Deloitte
2012
Every time a country`s broadband
speed doubles, the country`s GDP rises
0.3 per cent
Increasing the broadband penetration
by 10% stimulates GDP per capita by
0.9-1.5%
A 10% increase in mobile penetration
increases TFP in the long run by 4.2
percentage points
10% increase in broadband penetration
is yielded an additional 1.38% in GDP
growth
Impact on GDP varies widely, from
0.25% (OECD) to 1.38% for every
increase in 10% of penetration.
Broadband speed has greater impact in
countries with lower income than
countries with higher income

9.
Contribution to GDP. Ukraine
9
2013
3 900
???
2014
+2.87%
2012
3 873
2011
3 575
2010
2 974
2009
2 545
2008
3 891
2007
3 069
2006
2 303
2005
1 829
Source: World Bank, GSMA Global Mobile Economy 2015
Author`s calculations
GDP per Capita (current US$)
Total Impact
2.87%
Productivity
Improvement
1.62%
General
Economy
0.22%
Related
Industries
0.29%
Mobile
Operators
0.74%
Contribution to GDP
If 3G licenses had been provided in 2005, GDP per capita in Ukraine could increase by
additional ~110 US$ per year by 2013.

10.
Contribution to Employment
10
Direct Jobs
• Telecommunications
technicians
• Construction workers
• Civil engineers
Indirect Jobs
• Electrical equipment
workers
• Metal products workers
• Professional services
Induced Jobs
• Consumer durables
• Retail trade
• Consumer services
Externalities
• Brand new businesses
Employment generated in
the short term by
deployment of network
facilities
Employment generated by
indirect spending (or
businesses buying and
selling to each other in
support of direct spending)
Employment generated by
household spending based
on the income earned from
the direct and indirect effects
Employment generated by
new applications and
services, new forms of
commerce and financial
intermediation etc.
Source: Katz, The impact of the broadband on the economy.
McKinsey global SME survey
+ 0.81 + 1.78 + ~3.50
For every one job destroyed by the Internet 2.6 are created!

11.
Contribution to Employment. Ukraine
11
Job creation in Ukraine
20162015 2017
8 018
10 289
20 774
2018
25 584
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Brand new
TOTAL = 63 616
United States
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Source: Katz, The impact of the broadband on the economy. Author`s calculations
Creation of 140k jobs per year over ten years.
(180k jobs per year by another estimation)
Total jobs: 114,000 jobs over four years (including
83,000 direct and 31,000 indirect)
Total jobs: 211,000 jobs over four years (including
75,500 direct and 134,500 indirect and induced)
Wireless advances creates jobs even in recession!

12.
Public Welfare Improvements
12
Entertainment
Online Education
Banking Services
Health Care
Open Public Services
M-Payments

13.
13
Investments in
Broadband
Higher quality
of life
Positive impact
on Economy

14.
Global Trends
14

15.
Global Market 2020
15
Unique subscribers, bln
4.6
3.6
2014 2020
3G / 4G connections
20202014
69%
39%
Smartphones, bln
2.6
2014 2020
5.9
Brand new services
?
2014 2020
?
M-Commerce, US$ bln
904
204
2014 2020
Wearables, mln
43
20202014
365
Source: GSMA Intelligence

16.
Global Trends
16
mAgriculture
Green Power for Mobile
Entertainment
Online Education
mBanking
mHealth Care
mGovernment
M-Payments

17.
Potential 5G Cases
17
Source: GSMA Intelligence
- Fixed point
- Nomadic
- On the go
Services that could be enabled
by 5G

18.
18
“Five years ago, most content on
Facebook was text. Now it’s photos. Fast
forward five years and it will be video.
After that, it will be immersive content like
virtual reality.”

19.
Connecting Everything
19
Source: http://www.janua.fr/security-iot-internet-things/
The Internet of Things – embedding sensors and actuators in machines and other physical
objects to bring them into the single connected world.

20.
Dozens of new services & products
are yet to come
20

21.
Internet providers?
21

22.
22
Google Project Loon
Source: Google Project Loon
Loon balloons float in the
atmosphere, twice as high as
airplanes and weather.
People will be able to connect to
the Internet directly from their
phones and other LTE-enabled
devices.

23.
23
Google Titan

24.
24
Facebook
The aircraft will be powered by solar panels
on its wings and it will be able to stay at
altitudes of more than 60,000 feet for
months at a time.
Aircraft will help to connect the 10% of the world's
population that live in remote communities without
existing internet infrastructure.

25.
25
Low-Orbit Internet Satellites
Elon Musk
4,025
Satellites
1,100
Altitude
~2020
Launch
Richard Branson
2,400
Satellites
1,200
Altitude
2017
Launch

26.
CONCLUSIONS
1. The investments in broadband and new services enabled
by 3G network will bring substantial economic and social
benefits to Ukraine
2. Ukraine will bridge the gap with the developed countries
and sooner or later will be able to move on par with
them.
26

27.
Thank You !
27