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Full PowerPoint Download Link (slide deck contains notes with full references): https://1drv.ms/p/s!Algw2-ojrLE8y30Denn8p68m2FaQ Association of Change Management Professionals (ACMP) Pacific Northwest Chapter - 29th November 2017 public session. We know that there is often a huge disparity between what people intend to do and what they actually do. Standard economic theory assumes that people are rational, act based on full information, and always maximize utility, yet why then do most people struggle to save for their futures, exercise more, or pursue healthier diets? Research shows that in fact humans are actually irrational beings, that are heavily influenced by their peers, and make decisions based on heuristics due to increasing limitations on their time and attention. Based on the disciplines of psychology, data analytics, cognitive science, behavioral economics, and anthropology, behavioral insights can be applied to successful change management interventions and more importantly, using methods drawn from experimental psychology, neuromarketing, and healthcare randomized control trials, can measure and provide real evidence of success or failure of those interventions. This partnering of neuroscience and change management, in effect NeuroChange, presents new and exciting ways to engage audiences, reduce resistance, realize benefits, and ultimately increase return on investment. This session will use real examples from industry and Microsoft customers, and show you how nudges can be used to change user behavior. It will also include pointers to follow up reading and additional webinars for additional professional development in this area.
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ACMP Pacific NW Chapter - Behavioral Insights and Neurochange - Nov 2017
- Tony Garnier
- Irrational Behavior
- Why? Despite our best intentions…Do we struggle... To do the right thing…
- Human…
- Influencing Irrational Behavior
- In an experiment, US business students were asked if they would pay the last 2 digits of their social security numbers for each of several items (e.g. 34 = $34). Next, each bid the maximum amount they would be willing to pay for each item. Did the initial anchor amount influence each student’s ultimate bids?
- “Although students were reminded that the social security number is a random quantity conveying no information, those who happened to have high social security numbers were willing to pay much more for the products.” Ariely, D. (MIT), Lowenstein, G. (Carnegie Mellon), & Prelec, D. (MIT), 2006, Tom Sawyer and the construction of value. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1-10.
- Ariely, D. (MIT), Lowenstein, G. (Carnegie Mellon), & Prelec, D. (MIT), 2006, Tom Sawyer and the construction of value. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1-10. Experiment #1: Business students were told their professor would be doing a 15-minute poetry reading. Half were asked if they would be willing to pay $2 to attend and half were asked if they would be willing to attend if they were paid $2. After answering, students were then told that the poetry reading would be free and were asked if they wanted to attend. Question: Would the initial anchoring of the experience’s value affect who would attend for free?
- Ariely, D. (MIT), Lowenstein, G. (Carnegie Mellon), & Prelec, D. (MIT), 2006, Tom Sawyer and the construction of value. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1-10. Experiment #2: Now the professor first read poetry for 1 minute so that students actually experienced it. Then one group was asked if they would be willing to pay to attend, the other group if they would be willing to attend if paid. Question: Would the anchoring effect go away when people were allowed to sample the experience first?
- Nearby Comparison and Choice
- Thinking Differently about Human Behavior to Nudge Change
- System 1 Fast thinking / Automatic intuitive, effortless 2x2 Taking your daily commute System 2 Slow thinking / Reflective deliberate, analytic, effortful 24x17 Planning a trip overseas “It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect” Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate We need to think differently about behaviour We tend to design things here that assume rational behavior Behavior when people have imperfect information, time pressure, stress, or information overload
- Behavioral Insights Psychology & Neuroscience Behavioral Economics Data Analytics Anthropology & Culture Cognitive Science Understanding how people behave in practice so that we can design better interventions
- Behavioral Insights are empirical findings about human behavior that can be used to make something more effective. People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested and shown to be effective We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs Insights should be useful and practical
- Small changes can make a BIG Difference
- Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness Feb 24, 2009 by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein
- A Practical Framework – Part 1
- 10% 15% 18% 27% Control + Claimant Name + Advisor Name + Reciprocity Highest performing text (‘+Reciprocity’) % of job seekers turning up to the Jobcentre Total number of SMS sent =
- Test, Adapt, Learn
- How do we find out what works? We don’t need to find out: we’re experts and we already know the answer Results can be surprising, and even if we’re right about the direction, what is the effect size? Interviews, surveys and focus groups Are participants telling the truth? Do they really know what they want, and how their behaviour will change in a new situation? Apply the intervention and measure before and after How do we know other factors didn’t play a part? What if an improvement would have happened anyway? How do we know that the groups aren’t also different in other important ways? Compare different individuals, groups or areas
- Evidence – Randomized Control Trials
- © Behavioural Insights ltd Increasing organ donation
- © Behavioural Insights ltd We prompted people to join the NHS Organ Donor Register Online
- © Behavioural Insights ltd 1. Control 2. Norm 3. Norm & Picture 4. Norm & Logo
- © Behavioural Insights ltd 5. Three Die 6. Nine Lives 7. Reciprocity 8. Action
- © Behavioural Insights ltd Proportion joining the organ donor register after a online prompt 2.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.2% Control Take Action 1000s Heart Lives 3 Die Would you People
- © Behavioural Insights ltd This trial resulted in 96,000 organ donor registrations completed in one year.
- Do Change Managers really need to run trials? Intuitive… … but worse than useless A review of 7 Randomized Control Trials found: After Scared Straight = 34% go on to commit crime Control group = 27% …do not over-emphasize the prevalence of undesirable behavior
- Timely: Encouraging charitable giving in wills • UK Estate Planning (Will Writing) Service by Phone • Customers randomly assigned to a will-writer • 3 possible telephone scripts 5.0% 10.4% 15.4% Control (No Ask) Just Ask Social Passion Ask Average donation in ‘Social Passion Ask’ group is 2x ‘Control’ or ‘Just Ask’ “Would you like to leave any money to charity in your will?” “Many of our customers like to leave money to charity in their will. Are there any causes you’re passionate about?”
- A Practical Framework – Part 2
- EAST Framework EASY Make it Easy •Harness the power of defaults •Reduce the “hassle factor” of taking up a service •Simplify messages ATTRACTIVE Make it Attractive •Attract attention •Design rewards and sanctions for maximum effect SOCIAL Make it Social •Show that most people perform the desired behavior •Use the power of networks •Encourage people to make a commitment to others TIMELY Make it Timely •Prompt people when they are likely to be most receptive •Consider the immediate costs and benefits •Help people plan their response to events
- Use Agile Sprints Define the outcome 01 Understand the context 02 Build your intervention 03 Test, learn, adapt 04
- Behavioral Architecture – Nudging to Change
- Proven Results January2017 June2017
- Further Learning
- Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (2008; Dan Ariely) Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (2008; Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein) Inside the Nudge Unit: How small changes can make a big difference (2015; David Halpern) EAST: Four Simple Ways to Apply Behavioural Insights (2014; The Behavioural Insights Team) Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (1984; Robert B. Cialdini) Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (2005; Malcolm Gladwell) Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011; Daniel Kahneman) The Ethics of Influence: Government in the Age of Behavioral Science (2016; Cass R. Sunstein)
- ACMP Continued Professional Development Leading NeuroChange – How Microsoft Uses Brain Science to NOT Talk About Technology • Jo Grubb – August 2017 ACMP online webinar • Sophie Velzian – November 2017 ACMP Europe conference Do the behavioral change management interventions we make actually make any difference, or is it possible they might actually make things worse? • ACMP Global Conference (March 2018) – Masterclass – Alistair Lowe-Norris and Donal Higgins
- Final Thoughts • Behavioral Insights are empirical findings about human behavior that can be used to make something more effective • Human behavior is irrational so don’t just plan for rational behavior • Irrational behavior can be nudged • Nudge theory is based on Nobel Prize-winning work and many practical trials • There are frameworks you can use – BIT EAST is a good one to start with • Run trials with a control • Use Agile Sprints not Waterfall
- THANK YOU
Notes de l'éditeur
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/alistaln/ Formal acknowledgement that the first version of this presentation came from an internal delivery to Microsoft by Donal Higgins: https://www.linkedin.com/in/donalhiggins2016/ Formal acknowledgement to Dr. Russell James III, Texas Tech University for his Anchoring slides, I’m using here as examples of Neuromarketing: https://www.slideshare.net/rnja8c/anchoring-and-adjustment-in-behavioral-economics
- We want to start with an idea that we’ll come back to right at the end. Our change management interventions can be a double-edged sword. How can you know for sure whether the intervention you’re making was the best one to make? How do you know that doing that intervention was better than having done nothing?
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Noir https://citecreation.fr/ https://citecreation.fr/realisation/
- 40 Boulevard des Canuts, Lyon, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (this is Mur des Canuts or Wall of the Canuts – where Canut was the nickname for a silk worker) https://www.francetoday.com/travel/the-murals-of-lyon/
- Gilbert Coudène is the mural artist and Director of Cité Création. Along with Berlin, Lyon is the European capital of mural paintings with over 60 murals, and is one of the top five cities in the world in terms of the amount of murals.
- Behavioural insights help us understand how people make decisions in everyday life, and often this does not reflect the rational, self-interested decision makers described in standard economics textbooks.
- In other words we’re human – we have limited attention, limited bandwidth, limited self-control, and are heavily influenced by what others do.
- Formal acknowledgement to Dr. Russell James III, Texas Tech University for his Anchoring slides in this section, I’m using here as examples of Neuromarketing: https://www.slideshare.net/rnja8c/anchoring-and-adjustment-in-behavioral-economics
- Perhaps students were just using price as an estimate of unknown quality?
- If we have a greater awareness of these biases, then we can create behaviorally informed approaches to cater for both systems
- What our brains are good and bad at. You can illustrate what our brains are good and bad at with a piece of paper. First, try crumpling it into a ball and throwing it to a colleague. Chances are, they will catch it easily. This is despite the fact that it’s an incredibly complex calculation. The thrower has to calibrate the motion perfectly for the weight and the distance, while the catcher has to manage the even more complex task of judging the speed, size, weight and distance of the object, and then calibrate raising their hand to exactly the right point in space and grasping the paper at exactly the right moment. But if you ask them how they did it, they’ll probably just shrug their shoulders and say ‘I just caught it’. It’s an everyday illustration of what our ‘fast’ or automatic brain can do, and though there’s not a machine on the planet that can yet replicate that casual throw and catch, we think nothing of it. Halpern, David. Inside the Nudge Unit: How small changes can make a big difference (Kindle Locations 462-469). Ebury Publishing. Kindle Edition.
- If we purely look at the definition, behavioural insight/science comes down to systematically analysing and investigating behaviour. As you can already hear, this is a very broad definition and this is just a subset of all the subjects that come into play. Microsoft has been doing systematic behavioural analysis in some major subject areas, and using various frameworks for building theories.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Thaler
- http://justacarguy.blogspot.com/2014/10/dead-mans-curve-update-vintage-post.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_Road_492_(Marquette_County,_Michigan) Deadman’s curve in 1917
- Sylvan Goldman – Shopping Cart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvan_Goldman Within one year, they were operating twenty-one Sun Grocery markets throughout the state. Within three years, they had fifty-five stores.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_theory One of the most frequently cited examples of a nudge is the etching of the image of a housefly into the men's room urinals at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport, which is intended to "improve the aim“.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioural_Insights_Team http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/publications/east-four-simple-ways-to-apply-behavioural-insights/
- Prescribing errors affect an estimated 50% of admissions in hospitals using paper-based prescription charts (Lewis et al. 2009). There are concerns that such forms lead to medication errors by hindering clear communication between professionals. For example, it may be impossible to distinguish between milligrams and micrograms when written out by hand in a hurry. A study by Imperial College London, funded by the Behavioural Insights Team, sought to reduce these errors by redesigning forms to make them clearer and simpler (King et al. 2013). As the chart below shows, the microgram/milligram problem was addressed by creating distinct options that simply had to be circled. In simulation testing, the new charts were found to significantly improve correct dose entries, supporting information, and provision of contact information. If adopted more widely, improvements like these are likely to lead to reduced medical errors and better patient outcomes for little cost.
- Prescribing errors affect an estimated 50% of admissions in hospitals using paper-based prescription charts (Lewis et al. 2009). There are concerns that such forms lead to medication errors by hindering clear communication between professionals. For example, it may be impossible to distinguish between milligrams and micrograms when written out by hand in a hurry. A study by Imperial College London, funded by the Behavioural Insights Team, sought to reduce these errors by redesigning forms to make them clearer and simpler (King et al. 2013). As the chart below shows, the microgram/milligram problem was addressed by creating distinct options that simply had to be circled. In simulation testing, the new charts were found to significantly improve correct dose entries, supporting information, and provision of contact information. If adopted more widely, improvements like these are likely to lead to reduced medical errors and better patient outcomes for little cost.
- http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/publications/east-four-simple-ways-to-apply-behavioural-insights/
- Expertise in an area does not necessarily make one good at predicting outcomes - See the work of Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner on Superforecasting for this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting Interview and surveys – People’s responses in surveys are often at odds with their behavior – See Behavioral Insight Team’s counting calories report: http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/health/counting-calories-a-new-report-from-bit-on-the-problems-with-official-statistics-on-calorie-intake-and-how-they-can-be-solved/ Before and after – Subject to the post-hoc fallacy (Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc), just because the result followed my intervention it must have been caused by it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc Clearly there may be important differences between groups/areas. However, as we will see later, there are some methods that can overcome this problem.
- http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/trial-results/behavioural-insights-and-healthier-lives-our-new-report-with-vichealth/ http://38r8om2xjhhl25mw24492dir.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/2016-Behavioural-Insights-and-Healthier-Lives.pdf
- When people renew their car tax online, they receive a message asking if they want to join the organ donor register. For one month, eight different messages were introduced to encourage sign up, and visitors were randomly allocated to each. Since over 1 million people visited the site during the month, this represented one of the largest randomized controlled trials in the public sector.
- This trial was essentially an A/B test. This is a really nice example of an individually randomized experiment since we know that people independent of one another and are not going to have a repeated interaction with the website (they won’t be paying their road tax for another year).
- The most successful variant asked "If you needed an organ transplant, would you have one? If so, please help others'", which has been estimated to add around 100,000 extra organ donors per year relative to the control. Most change managers believe that “people” would be the right answer. This goes to show that you can’t be sure, without testing (and testing against a control where you do nothing, or do a default choice), whether the intervention you’re going to make is more likely to be better than having done nothing in the first place.
- 1. Scared Straight: The Campbell Review Young offenders visit inmates, observe first-hand prison life Rolled out to 30 jurisdictions in the US then UK, Germany, Canada… https://campbellcollaboration.org/library/juvenile-delinquency-scared-straight-etc-programmes.html https://campbellcollaboration.org/media/k2/attachments/Scared_Straight_R.pdf 2. Border Control Officers who sold passports illegally were made an example of. Other officers wondered how much they could make selling passports… 3. For several decades, adults with severe head injury were treated using steroid injections. This made perfect sense in principle: steroids reduce swelling, and it was believed that swelling inside the skull killed people with head injuries, by crushing their brain. However, these assumptions were not subject to proper tests for some time. Then, a decade ago, this assumption was tested in a randomised trial. The study was controversial, and many opposed it, because they thought they already knew that steroids were effective. In fact, when the results were published in 2005, they showed that people receiving steroid injections were more likely to die: this routine treatment had been killing people, and in large numbers, because head injuries are so common. These results were so extreme that the trial had to be stopped early, to avoid any additional harm being caused. This is a particularly dramatic example of why fair tests of new and existing interventions are important: without them, we can inflict harm unintentionally, without ever knowing it; and when new interventions become common practice without good evidence, then there can be resistance to testing them in the future. N = 10,008 adults 6 months later – risk of death higher (26% by 22%); risk of death or severe disability (38% by 36%) http://www.cochrane.org/CD000196/INJ_corticosteroids-to-treat-brain-injury https://www.news-medical.net/news/2005/01/24/7457.aspx
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioural_Insights_Team http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/publications/east-four-simple-ways-to-apply-behavioural-insights/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioural_Insights_Team http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/publications/east-four-simple-ways-to-apply-behavioural-insights/ Note the title refers to the need to not follow a long “waterfall” approach and instead try and move towards more “Agile” change management. The idea of Agile comes from software development and the use of smaller sprints rather than months-and-months of following a monolithic traditional change management process. There are lots of developments in this field you can review around agile. See here for a start: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/agile-considerations-change-management-projects-alistair-lowe-norris/
- Screenshot of Yammer – part of Microsoft’s Office 365 service – that provides an enterprise social networking service used for private communication within organizations. https://products.office.com/en-us/yammer/yammer-overview
- Example of use of EAST on a Microsoft engagement
- Example of results of nudging behavior
- Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (1984; Robert B. Cialdini) Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (2005; Malcolm Gladwell Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (2008; Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein) Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (2008; Dan Ariely) Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011; Daniel Kahneman) EAST: Four Simple Ways to Apply Behavioural Insights (2014; The Behavioural Insights Team) Inside the Nudge Unit: How small changes can make a big difference (2015; David Halpern) The Ethics of Influence: Government in the Age of Behavioral Science (2016; Cass R. Sunstein)
- Additional public talks and sessions by Microsoft team members: http://www.acmpglobal.org/page/member_webinars http://www.acmpconference.com/europe/Program/Full-Program http://www.acmpconference.com/cm2018/Program/Full-Program
- Lots more to review here on your own if you’d like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioural_change_theories
- So back to the original thought of our interventions being a double-edged sword. How can you know for sure whether the intervention you’re making was the best one to make, and how do you know that doing that intervention was better than having done nothing. Now you have a framework to think that approach through together with Randomized Controlled Trials can really help your change management produce better results.
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