Influencing policy (training slides from Fast Track Impact)
Land and Home(s) No Longer Four Letter Words?
1. Allen Matkins
Real Estate Development Law
Update
Land and Home(s)
No Longer Four Letter Words?
February 27, 2013
Jeff Meyers, President
Meyers LLC, a Kennedy Wilson Company
(310)887-6297
5. E/P RATIO Trends
New Home Market
California
State of California Price Appreciation and E/P Ratio
Thursday, September 28, 2006
30% 30
25% 25
20% 20
15% 15
10% 8.1% Annual Average 10
Michelle Wolkoys
Year-over-Year Price Change
5% 5
Principal
0% 0
E/P Ratio
Builder Advisors, LLC (Meyers Group)
-5% -5
(949) 640-0050 x207
-10% -10
(714) 357-6005 mobile
-15% -15
-20% -20
-25% -25
-30% -30
-35% -35
-40% -40
2011F
2013F
2015F
1973
2009
1971
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
CA Price Appreciation 40-Year CA Historical Average E/P
Source: NAR; CAR; www.meyersllc.com
6. BAY AREA HOUSING MARKET
New Home Market Trends
Existing Single-Family Median Sales Price (Q4 2012 vs. Q4 2011)
SOURCE: DataQuick
Note: Median prices of completed sales of existing single-family homes.
7. New Home Market Trends
Agenda
1. The Recovery
2. A Few Samples
3. What to Watch For
8. 1. New Home Market Trends
The Recovery
Still some mixed macro signals, but from the
ground up, this recovery is gaining
momentum.
Excess Supply – REO is moving through
system
Stopped New Construction – Five Year
Absence
Economic Fundamentals – Improving
Source: BLS, Moody’s Analytics
9. New Home Market Trends
Agenda
1. The Recovery
2. A Few Samples
3. What to Watch For
10. ANNUAL NONFARM JOB CHANGES BY STATE
New Home Market Trends
December 2012 vs. December 2011
+123,600
+225,900
+260,800
Source: BLS
11. 2. New FewMarket Trends
A Home Samples
Job Trends – Job Postings per Capita
Rank (Last Qtr Rank) Metropolitan Area Job Postings per 1000 People
1 (1) San Jose, CA 153
2 (2) Washington, DC 112
3 (3) Raleigh, NC 106
4 (4) Hartford, CT 102
5 (5) Boston, MA 92
6 (6) Baltimore, MD 88
7 (7) Denver, CO 82
8 (8) San Francisco, CA 77
9 (10) Seattle, WA 73
10 (9) Austin, TX 73
Source: Indeed.com
12. 2. New FewMarket Trends
A Home Samples
California Employment Growth by Industry
3-Month Moving Average, Nov. 2012
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
13. 2. New FewMarket Trends
A Home Samples
California Employment Growth by County
3-Month Moving Average, Nov. 2012
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
14. 2. New FewMarket Trends
A Home Samples
California Single Family Permits (in thsds)
200
Recession Recession Recession Recession
180
Added 13.3M people since ‘82
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Census
15. FINISHED LOT VALUES, LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MappedHome Market Trends
New
Assumes a home size of 2,000 square feet and directs of $45/ft. Soft costs estimated at 20% with a targeted profit margin of 15%.
Source: DQ News, Meyers Research
16. FINISHED LOT VALUES, LOS ANGELES COUNTY
Top andHome MarketMarkets
New Bottom Trends
Median Resale Est. Median New Est. Median New
Community Est. Finished Lot Finished Lot, %
ZIP Code Home Price/ Sq. Home Price/ Sq. Ft (+ Home Price (2,000
Name Value Home Price
Ft 15%) SF)
Snta Monica 90402 $1,042 $1,198 $2,396,600 $1,467,790 61%
Snta Monica 90403 $952 $1,095 $2,189,600 $1,333,240 61%
LA/Brentwd 90049 $856 $984 $1,968,800 $1,189,720 60%
Beverly Hills 90212 $855 $983 $1,966,500 $1,188,225 60%
Venice 90291 $816 $938 $1,876,800 $1,129,920 60%
Snta Monica 90405 $810 $932 $1,863,000 $1,120,950 60%
P Palisades 90272 $805 $926 $1,851,500 $1,113,475 60%
Malibu 90265 $801 $921 $1,842,300 $1,107,495 60%
Beverly Hills 90211 $768 $883 $1,766,400 $1,058,160 60%
Hermosa Bh 90254 $742 $853 $1,706,600 $1,019,290 60%
Palmdale 93551 $97 $112 $223,100 $55,015 25%
Lancaster 93536 $87 $100 $200,100 $40,065 20%
Littlerock 93543 $84 $97 $193,200 $35,580 18%
Palmdale 93550 $79 $91 $181,700 $28,105 15%
Palmdale 93552 $78 $90 $179,400 $26,610 15%
Lancaster 93535 $72 $83 $165,600 $17,640 11%
Lancaster 93534 $71 $82 $163,300 $16,145 10%
Palmdale 93591 $66 $76 $151,800 $8,670 6%
Llano 93544 $57 $66 $131,100 ($4,785) -4%
Pearblossom 93553 $50 $58 $115,000 ($15,250) -13%
Assumes a home size of 2,000 square feet and directs of $45/ft. Soft costs estimated at 20% with a targeted profit margin of 15%.
Source: DQ News, Meyers Research
17.
18.
19. New Home Market Trends
Agenda
1. The Recovery
2. A Few Samples
3. What to Watch For
21. MARKET SHARE BY GENERATION
Gen Y captures 25% of population
Generation Echo Boom/
Generation Silent Baby Boomers
X Gen Y
Years Born 1925 – 1945 1946 – 1964 1965 – 1979 1980 - 2000
Age Range 65 to 85 46 to 64 31 to 45 10 to 30
US Population 34M 82M 62M 84M
% of Population 13% 31% 23% 32%
Source: Census
22. PREFERRED COMMUNITY TYPE
National Association of Realtors 2011
If you could choose where to live, in which type of the following locations
would you most like to live?
City + Suburban Mixed-Use = 47%
Rural Area 22%
Small Town 18%
Suburb - housing only 12%
Suburb - mix of housing, businesses 28%
City - Residential Area 11%
City - Downtown Area 8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
SOURCE: NAR
23. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & NEW HOME SALES
United States Trends
New Home Market
1,400 Annual Mortgage Rates: 90
1988 – 10.34 %Thursday, September 28, 2006
1,200 1993 – 7.31% 80
2002 – 6.54%
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX
1,000 2009 – 5.04% 70
NEW SFD HOME SALES
Currently – 3.41%
800 60
600 50
400 40
200 30
0 20
1990
2006
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*2012
US New Home Sales US Affordability
Source: CAR, Census, Freddie Mac
*Housing Affordability Index score thru Q3 2012
24. AVERAGE FICO OF AGENCY MBS ORIGINATIONS
– October 2012
September 2003 Trends
New Home Market
Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance
25. CASH BUYERS
California Market Trends
New Home
700,000 40.0%
600,000 33.8% 35.0%
31.3%
29.4%
500,000 30.0%
27.6%
% of Cash Buyers
Total Resales
400,000 25.0%
20.1%
300,000 20.0%
200,000 13.1% 15.0%
10.3% 10.7% 11.0%
10.1%
100,000 10.0%
0 5.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
All Resales % Cash
Source: DQ News
26. CASH BUYER ACTIVITY IN CALIFORNIA
New Home Market Trends
Market Share by Region
Southern California 53.48%
Central Valley 21.71%
Bay Area 18.00%
Coast 2.90%
North Calif* 2.41%
Mountains* 1.49%
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Source: DQ News
27. CASH BUYER ACTIVITY IN SO CAL
New Home Market Trends
Market Share by County
Los Angeles 32%
Riverside 20%
San Diego 17%
San
14%
Bernardino
Orange 14%
Ventura 3%
Imperial 1%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
Source: DQ News
28. MULTIFAMILY PERMITS
History and Market Trends
New Home
Forecast
Historical Total Annual Permit Average = 469
1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s (Forecast)
4.9 Million 6.7 Million 5.6 Million 3.1 Million 3.9 Million 4.3 Million
1,200 70.0
1,100 69.0
1,000 68.0
900 67.0
Permits (in thousands)
800 66.0
Homeownership Rate
700 65.0
600 64.0
500 63.0
400 62.0
300 61.0
200 60.0
100 59.0
0 58.0
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013F
2016F
2019F
Multi-Family Homeownership Rate
Source: Census; Meyers LLC
29. MULTIFAMILY PERMITS
Top 10 By Metro Trends 2012 vs 2011
New Home Market
Area,
Rank Metro Area 2012 2011 % Ch.
1 NY-North NJ-Long Island NY-NJ-PA 20,137 15,138 33.02%
2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 15,976 10,443 52.98%
3 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX 14,883 8,127 83.13%
4 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA 12,486 10,197 22.45%
5 Wa. DC-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 11,382 9,633 18.16%
6 Austin-Round Rock TX 11,249 4,025 179.48%
7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 9,400 5,150 82.52%
8 Denver-Aurora CO 8,156 2,902 181.05%
9 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 7,578 3,279 131.11%
10 Raleigh-Cary, NC 6,460 1,613 300.50%
Source: Census
30. TOP 10 RENTAL MARKETS IN CALIFORNIA
RankedHomeAverage Rent
New by Market Trends
Area Avg. Rent Yr/Yr Change Purchase Power Avg. Occupancy
Santa Monica $3,041 2.10% $656,640 96.70%
San Francisco $2,741 -0.70% $591,861 95.60%
Palo Alto $2,714 -1.00% $586,031 95.50%
Los Gatos $2,455 0.40% $530,105 96.40%
Marina del Rey $2,454 0.70% $529,889 95.90%
Berkeley $2,368 -12.10% $511,319 86.10%
Cupertino $2,357 0.70% $508,944 94.90%
Foster City $2,307 -0.30% $498,148 95.20%
South San Fran. $2,296 -0.40% $495,773 95.10%
Newport Beach $2,263 -0.90% $488,647 94.60%
Note: only includes areas with at least 5 communities
Source: RealFacts
31. TOP SELLING ATTACHED PROJECTS
New Home Market Trends
Vicino by KB Home, San Jose, CA
• 3 floor plans ranging from 1,507 – 1,812 SF
• 3 Bedrooms with 3 or 3.5 Bathrooms
• Mid $700,000s to low $800,000s
• YTD/Overall sales: 21/51 homes
• YTD/Overall monthly sales rate: 13.0/9.14
Source: The Ryness Report, February 17, 2013
32. CAPITAL STACK
Term Sheet Summary
• Co-invests: 10% to 20%
• Preferred Returns: 12% (Pari Passu)
• Waterfalls: 75/25 to a 22%-25% IRR with
a multiple of 1.5X
• Capital Management Fees: 0.5% to 1%
• G&A Fees: 3%
SOURCE: Meyers LLC
33. Trended Rents will increase
Lease up for NEW projects
at a decreasing rate and Home
will continue to be robust
Prices will accelerate
34. Job growth will continue but
Multifamily development
Lease up for NEW projects
probably at a to be the next several years
willcontinue decreasing rate
will increase over robust
35. 4. New Home Market Trends
Going Forward
Consensus Forecasts:
36. Allen Matkins
Real Estate Development Law
Update
Land and Home(s)
No Longer Four Letter Words?
February 27, 2013
Jeff Meyers, President
Meyers LLC, a Kennedy Wilson Company
(310)887-6297
Editor's Notes
DONE
Close in to jobs, etc.. Is 47% 92% of the market is resales
You want to run sensitivities against this and see what happens. Load up capital management fees, because you’ll run your numbers, and it looks great. Then you load up their fees, and some of the management fees are upfront which will affect your returns. The G&A fees again 3%, but they typically will have holdbacks and various terms.
If you’re not in one of the core markets, you’ll have a tougher job trying to sell your project.