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International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS

4 Dec 2009
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
Publicité
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS
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International Marketing- Plan for Global Rollout of Google Android Mobile OS

  1. 2009 International Marketing Assignment 4- Android Mobile OS Annabell Lee Satterfield (2013718) Cornell University 4/28/09
  2. This marketing plan will delineate the international expansion plan for the world’s first Google-Android OS-based smart phone. First, this paper will define the product and its potential adaptations (more detailed analysis in Appendix 1). Then, this paper will discuss the quantitative model used to determine global markets for expansion and to rank them according to their market potential (more detailed analysis in Appendix 2). Finally, two of these markets, Korea and the United Kingdom, are described in some detail (more detailed analysis in Appendix 3) and a marketing plan is defined for these markets. Part 1- Product Definition and Adaptation: Summary Android is Google’s operating system for “smart” mobile phones, defined as a mobile phone with PC-like functionality. Android has several global competitors in the smartphone OS category: Symbian, iOS/iPhone, RIM/Blackberry and Windows Mobile (See Exhibit 1: Mobile OS Worldwide Market Shares). The Mac OS/iOS phone is the most similar in target customer, interface, Exhibit 1: Mobile OS and capability to the Android G1- the first Worldwide Market Shares phone released with the Android OS. The Android is expected to become 15% 16% Symbian a worldwide leader in mobile phone 50% MAC OS/iOS operating systems. It can be carried on 19% RIM/Blackberry multiple cellular networks and used in Windows Mobile phones built by the most popular Source: Fortune Magazine; http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/category/market-share/ November 7, 2008 manufacturers. However, there are three limitations to its ability to expand to the mass market internationally: its business model depends on advertising and its market is therefore limited to regions attractive to advertisers, the distribution model requires that the G1 be made available for sale where most consumers purchase handsets: retail stores. Finally, Android’s potential is limited by its target customer; the target customer could be defined as those that would purchase a “smart phone”—higher-income, educated consumers with interest in technology as well as productivity or entertainment applications. Also, because Android, like iOS, has yet to be accepted by industry as a business productivity tool, Android target customers are not business users. They are likely to buy this phone for his or her own personal use (the primary target customer is a retail consumer). More detail about this target customer can be found in Appendix 2.
  3. Android’s competitive advantage is Google’s well-known brand 1 and technical expertise, and Android’s open source capability and easy-to-use Java programming language that makes it markedly more adaptable than other devices. For example, while the system’s default language is English, users or phone vendors can go online and load their language into the system. Adaptations for regional dialects or uncommon languages can be made available for download by independent developers. Applications designed to meet the needs of local populations can be created by local developers and installed-- easily creating a unobstructed, fast pipeline for applications. Part 2- Quantitative Market Analysis A quantitative model was used to determine which markets to enter. It contained the following variables: population, GDP per capita, and number of internet users per capita. Population was chosen to explain market size because, as a consumer product, the Android phone could be purchased by anyone. I used GDP Per Capita because smartphones like Android phones are purchased primarily by users in wealthy nations. The variable ‘number of internet users per capita’ is helpful in explaining the likelihood to purchase because it represents a nation’s interest in technology. This variable also correlates with a country’s supporting infrastructure. I screened potential markets with the following minimum requirements: minimum population of 20,000,000, minimum GDP per capita of $3,000, internet usage per capita of .42 I chose a minimum population of 20,000,000 because this is a product that is not widely used and therefore requires a large market base to sell to. A Minimum GDP per capita of $3,000/yr would allow Android to be marketed to the top 23% of earners in the world. Finally, the median internet usage rate of the final list of populous and wealthy nations is .42, so I chose this as the screening minimum for the final screening. After the final screening, I was left with this list of countries: Canada, South Korea, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Malaysia, Italy, Romania, Australia, Germany, France, Spain and Poland. Finally, in order to rank these countries from the most suitable to the least suitable, I weighted the variables by their contribution to overall market demand for the product: market size: 3, wealth: 4, likelihood of purchase: 2 I included (and subsequently eliminated in the screening process) Brazil, Russia, India and China but added the two larger countries-- India and China-- back to the final list because their large populations and their wealth disparities could house a sizeable niche of individuals wealthy and educated enough to create sizeable demand for an Android smartphone. The final 10 countries recommended for further 1 Google is the most powerful brand in the world, according to Millward Brown- BrandZ Top 100 2008 Report
  4. analysis are (in random order): South Korea, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, China, India, Canada, Taiwan, Malaysia and Italy. Part 3- Market Analysis of Korea and the United Kingdom KOREA Smartphone phone users in Korea can be divided into two segments: corporate consumers and retail consumers. Corporate consumers place greater emphasis on productivity-enhancing applications and security. Retail consumers (Android’s primary target) in Korea demand a bundle of attributes including design, price, and function and popularity of the phone. Both retail and corporate consumers demand standard Korean language features like Korean language input and display. Consumer sophistication in Korea is high and the market is very trend-based where new phones are introduced frequently, often advertised with celebrity endorsements and new designs (colors, etc.). Service providers and handset manufacturers spend heavily on marketing to create a buzz for new phones and service offerings. Outspending local firms in a race for top-of mind position in Korea where local brands are already entrenched would be very difficult and costly. Korean consumers choose their phones and service as a bundle; price is a factor, but more important is design, applications like games, and popularity. Mobile phones have become an important part of everyday life in Korea and are far more integrated into day-to-day activities than people in most other countries. Koreans use their phones to make payments, watch television, play games and more. New applications and games are always in demand by consumers. Handset price is not as important is because service providers provide handset subsidies in exchange for contracts. There is a worldwide trend in mobile phones today-- consumers are demanding specific phones and operating systems (i.e. iPhone, blackberry) from service providers, but this is not the case in Korea where there are not many significant differences in functionality (90% of smartphones use Microsoft OS, 80% of handsets are manufactured by two companies- LG and Samsung. 77.3% of all mobile phones are serviced by SK Telecom (50% of the market) and KTF (27.3% of the market). In sharp contrast to the service offerings, the distribution system for mobile phones is fragmented; phone/service bundles can be purchased in many locations including department stores, service provider stores, and temporary street promotion booths. Changes in the industry include the lowering of barriers to entry to foreign operating systems; on April 1, 2009 Korea stopped requiring that mobile phones in Korea contain middleware in compliance
  5. with its own standard, WIPI (Wireless Internet Platform for Interoperability). It can be predicted that these regulatory changes will make Korea’s smartphone OS market more competitive and fragmented; Apple, HTC, and Nokia have announced plans for new smartphones to be released in Korea this year. SK Telecom has recently introduced a Blackberry phone 2 that is targeted primarily at business consumers. UNITED KINGDOM Mobile phones users in the UK can be divided into two segments: corporate consumers and retail consumers. As stated in the detailed analysis in Appendix 1, suspicions regarding security due to the SaaS model used by the Android system compels Google to focus on retail consumers as its primary target at this time. Retail consumers demand a bundle of attributes including design, price, and functionality. The UK mobile phone market is well-saturated. There are 74 million mobile phone subscribers in in a population of 60 million. The smartphone market in the UK is large, contributing to sales of 470,000,000 pounds in 2008. The typical phone purchase transaction in the UK proceeds as follows: (1) the consumer determines a monthly budget for mobile phone service and selects a service plan accordingly. (2) The consumer chooses a handset that fits the predetermined budget (price) based on design and functionality (more so design) as well as brand attractiveness. Increasingly, customers are purchasing branded packages; as mobile phones are increasingly becoming commoditized, branding is becoming more important to the profitability of firms- they are increasingly bundling phones and Exhibit 2: UK Mobile Phone service contracts into branded packages like Distribution T-mobile package called “Life’s for Sharing” Specialty Mobile Phone and Nokia’s “Comes with Music.” 12% Stores 10% Department/Electronics The UK mobile phone distribution Stores system is fragmented, divided between 16% Supermarkets 62% specialty mobile phone stores, Internet/Telephone/Mail department/electronics stores, and Order supermarkets (See Exhibit 2: UK Mobile Phone Source: “Distribution,” Mobile Phones and Network Providers – UK, November 2008 Distribution). 2 “SK Telecom and RIM introduces the Blackberry solution in Korea,” ENP Newswire, December 16, 2009
  6. Mobile phone application usage in the UK is high—most British phone owners report using most of the features available on their phones. This may be correlated with the UK’s well-developed mobile phone infrastructure; 90% of the country is covered by high speed 3-G networks. Smartphones are used heavily for regular emailing (77% of smartphone users), GPS positioning (40%), and instant messaging (38%). 3 A large number of UK consumers, 1 million, now use mobile banking services. 4 Market-shifting trends are beginning in the mobile phone industry. Smartphone sales are rising. This is due in part to planned upgrades of current mobile phones. According to Computer Weekly, 25% of Brits say that their next phone will be a smartphone. 5 Particular smartphone/OS brands like the Apple iPhone (iOS) have drawn market share power from the service provider to the handset manufacturer and the consumer. Consumers are increasingly demanding particular phones (and operating systems) from their service provider 6—and gradually moving away from their traditional purchasing decisions model. The UK mobile phone service market is competitive and fragmented between 02 (25% of the market), Orange (21.3%), Vodaphone (22.1%), and T-Mobile (17.2%). Google’s Android OS’s competitors in the UK are as varied as the handset manufactures-- and include Symbian OS, Apple’s OS (iPhone), RIM’s Blackberry OS, Windows Mobile OS, and Linux OS. Advertising spend in the mobile handsets and networks sector has been dropping steadily since the end of 2006; service providers are branding phone/subscription packages and advertising them in innovative ways. T-mobile’s “Life’s for Sharing” package and campaign includes integrated marketing techniques like the hiring of performance artists and training of T-mobile employees to “unexpectedly” dance in London’s Liverpool Station. Advertisers in the United Kingdom do not use celebrities as often as Japan, Korea and China (where over 20% of ads feature celebrities). 7 Research firm Millward Brown has determined that this is due to differences in effectiveness for celebrity endorsements. Part 4- Marketing Plan for Korea and United Kingdom KOREA 3 “Smartphone sales are keeping the flagging UK mobile market afload, shielding it…,” Computer Weekly, April 21, 2009 4 “Monolink aligns with the growth of smartphones,” M2 Presswire, February 6, 2009 5 “Smartphone sales are keeping the flagging UK mobile market afload, shielding it…,” Computer Weekly, April 21, 2009 6 Ibid 7 http://www.millwardbrown.com/Sites/MillwardBrown/Media/Pdfs/en/KnowledgePoints/358D2249.pdf
  7. The Sell or License Decision Android should enter the Korean market itself rather than through licensing. The product, the operating system, has already been manufactured and can be adapted for the Korean market at a low cost (R&D). The Korean mobile phone user is sophisticated and accustomed to making online purchases—the advertising model can be applied to generate profit for Google. Another reason why Google should enter this recently-opened 8 market is to prevent its major competitor, the iOS from gaining an unshakable competitive advantage. Third, becoming a part of the cutting-edge Korean mobile phone/application market will allow it to gain valuable expertise on cutting edge applications, social networks and mobile video games—knowledge that it can apply in other international markets. Pricing Mobile operating systems like Microsoft OS typically create revenue by charging a flat royalty fee to handset manufacturers. Android, however, charges no royalty and instead generates revenue through mobile advertising. This pricing decision gives it a very competitive position in comparison to Microsoft (90% market share of the Korean smartphone market), which charges a $25 licensing fee per 9 handset for what is known critically as “…a clunky, antiquated menu-driven operating system” Google does not have strong brand power in Korea— Naver is the number one search engine brand with 70% all search queries. 10 However, Android offers a strong product with an intuitive interface and exciting new applications (like instant lookup of online store prices on products with the scanning of a UPC code, etc.). Charging some royalty fee, while against Google’s current worldwide policy, is possible. Possible competitive reactions are the reduction or elimination of royalty fees by Microsoft or Apple, allowing handset providers and service providers to either (a) pass the savings onto consumers or (b) keep the difference. The former is not likely to happen because it is not logical for Microsoft to lower its price to compete with Android because (1) Microsoft’s current target consumers are not retail customers but business users; business users are not as price sensitive, and (2) Android do not meet business users’ needs regardless of the price. It is possible that Apple, in an effort to compete with Android for retail consumers, will become royalty free or reduce its fees to service providers. Android could respond by offering advertising revenue share to the handset manufacturers and emphasize its functionality (more games, applications) to consumers to develop more consumer pull for its phones. It could also work harder with application developers to make more games and applications for the phone. 8 See reference to recent lifting of WIPI requirements 9 Wall Street Journal. August 27, 2008 10 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/05online.html?_r=2&oref=slogin
  8. Entry Strategy- Joint Venture The Korean handset and mobile service provider markets are dominated by a small number of Korean firms that spend heavily to remain top-of-mind with consumers. It would be advantageous for Android to joint venture and co-advertise with these firms rather than attempt to enter alone with HTC 11 and attempt to compete for consumer awareness. A joint venture with SK Telecom and Nokia Samsung or LG is recommended. These firms have an established distribution system, are already well- known and trusted by the Korean consumer, and they have relationships with potential advertisers. SK Telecom also owns Korea’s number one social networking site, Cyworld, boasting the registration of 90 percent of Koreans in their 20s and 25% of the total population of Korea. 12 A mobile phone app for Cyworld could help draw more users to Android-based phones and provide a powerful mobile advertising platform for Google. Because they are new to the market, an Android-based phone can offer very little to potential joint venture partners at this point except a share in advertising revenue- a potentially powerful motivator when looked at in the long term. Positioning Google’s Android is the mobile OS that offers innovative technology and, due to its open platform, the most flexibility—allowing its customers to enjoy new applications and games before anyone else. Proper management of developers would allow Android to fully maximize this advantage—particularly if it can influence developers to create scores of applications for Android alone. In regards to retail consumers, while Google’s country of origin, the United States, draws 13 premium prices for retail products in Korea, this is not the case in technology products. Also, Koreans have strong nationalist sentiments that flare up occasionally against prominent foreign firms. Android’s US origin, if handled correctly, is not damaging to the brand. However, it would not be wise to emphasize it in the consumer marketplace. Marketing Strategy for Consumers- Create Consumer Pull Google’s goal at this early stage of introduction to the Korean mobile phone market is to build awareness and create buzz for the service/handset/operating system bundle. Google’s focus should be on getting accepted in society through co-advertising with its Korean service provider and handset as well as some of its Korean application advertisers and developers. While it should make people aware 11 HTC manufactured the first Android-based phone sold in the United States 12 http://news.softpedia.com/news/Android-to-Go-to-Korea-This-Year-107829.shtml 13 http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/special/2008/07/175_18931.html
  9. of its positioning as a dynamic, exciting new product, Korean consumers are more interested in design, trendiness and popularity; using a popular celebrity would be appropriate. The marketing mix (See Exhibit 3) for the Android launch among mass consumers should include television, internet, movies and mobile internet advertising. Popular celebrities can advertise the product as well as the most exciting Korean-language applications that you can run on it at the moment- games, banking apps, shopping apps, social networking apps like the Cyworld application mentioned earlier. An advertising budget can be broken down as follows: Exhibit 3: MARKETING MIX Advertising $ 8,000,000 TV $ 4,500,000 Internet/Mobile Internet $ 2,000,000 Integrated Marketing (Word-of-mouth referral system, Film product $ 1,100,000 placement, street teams, etc.) PR $ 400,000 Advertising and PR firms should be Korean and be hired in conjunction with Android’s handset and service providers in a co-branding effort with handset makers and service providers. Internet and television play an important part in this advertising campaign. The internet campaign should include targeted (search-based) ads as well as efforts to encourage users to write testimonials of their experience with the phone on popular product review sites. Marketing on SK’s Cyworld and on the popular search engine, Naver, would also be included in this campaign. Integrated marketing efforts can include product placement, street teams and a new referral system that encourages Android phone owners to refer their friends and family to Android in exchange for some free phone service, premium applications, or Cyworld virtual currency, “Dotori.” Marketing Strategy for Joint Partners- Service Providers, Handset Manufacturers In regards to marketing to mobile service providers and handset manufacturers, Google should consider following the lead of RIM and Apple and opening a local remote office with Korean staff and
  10. support to maintain close relationships with its venture partners. Its business model is based on advertising, so Android can offer advertising revenue as well as reduced-cost advertising positions in Google search and in Android pre-installed apps. This income stream will incentivize handset makers, and service providers to work on Android’s behalf to saturate the Korean market. UNITED KINGDOM The Sell or License Decision Android should enter the market itself rather than through licensing. The product, the operating system, has already been manufactured and can be adapted for the UK market at a low cost (R&D), especially since user needs are not very different from the US market and Britons speak the same language. The UK mobile phone use is sophisticated—the mobile advertising model can be applied to generate profit for Google. Pricing While Android charges no royalty and instead generates revenue through mobile advertising, it could reverse this decision if it chose to. Google is the #1 brand in the world and has presence in the United Kingdom. Also, there is a growing trend of consumers beginning to demand specific phones and systems from their service providers (most recently with the iPhone). It would be possible for Google to ask handset manufacturers to pay the royalty fee for the right to carry their operating system and draw consumers—and therefore service providers to the handsets. Possible competitive reactions include the reduction or elimination of royalty fees by Microsoft, RIM, or Apple, allowing handset providers and service providers to either (a) pass the savings onto consumers or (b) keep the difference. As in the Korea case, this is not likely to happen because it is not logical for Microsoft to lower its price to compete with Android because (1) Microsoft’s target consumers are not price-sensitive retail customers but business users and (2) Android currently does not meet business users’ needs regardless of the price. RIM also charges a royalty fee and competes in the business and the consumer space. Its Blackberry Storm is a direct competitor to Android for retail customers. In this case, Android could respond in the same way it could respond to a competitive reaction by Apple-offer advertising revenue share to the handset manufacturers and emphasize its functionality (more games, applications) with consumers. It could also work harder with application developers to make more games and applications for the phone. Entry Strategy-Wide Distribution
  11. The UK mobile service provider market is divided among many players-- taking this fragmented market into consideration, it may be more beneficial to Google to advertise the Android operating system separately from the service provider and try to get it installed in phones sold by as many mobile network providers as possible. It could also work with different manufacturers and service providers to create branded promotional bundles that it could advertise to consumers in a co-promotional scheme. The mobile phone handset market is less fragmented than the mobile service market. The largest handset percentage share in the UK is owned by Nokia with 43% of the market. Sony-Ericsson has 18% if the market and Samsung has 21% of the market. The remaining handset market share is divided among Motorola, LG and others. 14 I would recommend that Android become installed first in Nokia phones—and then distribute the OS to other players in the market. Positioning Google’s Android is the mobile OS that currently offers the most innovative technology and, due to its open platform, the most flexibility—potentially allowing developers to develop new applications and games for Android before anyone else. Proper management of developers would allow Android to fully maximize this advantage—particularly if it can influence application developers to create the majority of applications for Android. In regards to retail technology consumers, Google’s country-of-origin, the United States, cannot cannot be used to draw more consumers to Android or to demand a premium price. Marketing Strategy for Consumers- Create Consumer Pull There is a gradual change in demand for mobile phones today—UK consumers are beginning to demand specific phones and operating systems from their service providers (O2 profited from this shift in consumer behavior in 2007 with their exclusive launch of the Apple iPhone; Vodaphone sales were pushed up significantly from their exclusive launch of the Blackberry Storm). I would recommend that Google leverage this shift in consumer power by marketing directly to consumers to develop a consumer pull for their OS. Google’s goal at this early stage is to build awareness of the exciting new functionality of the operating system and emphasize the design of the phones that it comes on. Design is very important to UK consumers; Google should make efforts to ensure that its operating system comes equipped on well- designed phones. Celebrities do not have the same impact in the UK as it does in Korea. Instead, 14 “Market Share,” Mobile Phones and Network Providers – UK, November 2008.
  12. Android can work with handset makers and service providers to be put in branded packages like T- mobile package called “Life’s for Sharing." The marketing mix for the Android launch among mass consumers should include television, internet, movies and mobile internet advertising. More spend in television and integrated marketing and less spend on internet advertising would be appropriate (See Exhibit 4) to impact consumers where they are most accessible. Exhibit 4: MARKETING MIX- Consumers Advertising $ 9,000,000 TV $ 5,800,000 Internet $ 1,000,000 Integrated Marketing (Viral marketing, Film product placement, street $ 2,500,000 teams, etc.) PR $ 200,000 Television and integrated marketing campaigns play an important part in this advertising campaign and should be used to create awareness of the phone—with special emphasis on Android’s applications and the phone’s design. The internet campaign should include targeted (search-based) ads as well as efforts to encourage users to write testimonials of their experience with the phone on popular product review sites. Integrated marketing efforts can include product placement, street teams and viral marketing on Bebo and Hi5- currently the most popular British social networking sites. Marketing Strategy for Joint Partners- Service Providers, Handset Manufacturers In regards to marketing to mobile service providers and handset manufacturers, Google can incentivize handset manufacturers to build Android phones by offering shares in Android advertising revenue.
  13. Appendix 1- Android and Potential Adaptations The Android operating system (OS) is Google’s base software that runs on a “smart phone.” A smart phone can be defined as a mobile phone offering advanced capabilities beyond a typical mobile phone, often with PC-like functionality. It is open-platform software, which means that any software developer can access its code to create change it or to create software to run on it. Also, all of Android’s data and software is stored online and on your phone simultaneously. This allows users to access their contact information on their computer and also allows Google to study usage habits and to send users extremely targeted advertising. For example, you can look up a mapped route to a car dealership and Android can suggest related products and sales on your way to the location. It can later send you an ad for a new car. Another power feature is the ability to scan a UPC code in a store to instantly pull up comparison prices. This would be appealing to users that regularly research prices before purchase. Android is designed to run on a 3G (or SCDMA) phone network, but can be modified to run on the more common CDMA network type at slower speeds and less functionality. The first Google phone widely available, the G1, sells in the United States for $179.99 dollars with a 2 year contract with T-Mobile. Android has several global competitors in the smartphone OS category: Symbian (46.6% worldwide 15 market share), Mac OS/iOS/iPhone (17.3% Market Share), 16 RIM/Blackberry (15.2% market share), 17 and 18 Windows Mobile (13.6% market share). The iPhone is the most similar in target customer, interface, and capability to the Android G1. IPhone has the advantage of the Apple brand, intuitive interface and enthusiastic customers worldwide (worldwide market Share growth for iOS was 523% 19 between Q3 ‘07-Q3 ’08). Because users shop for phones based on the total package the operating system developer and hardware manufacturer have to offer— how important these competitors are is a function of how entrenched the manufacturers are in the market and how much freedom users have in choosing their phone (in the US, unlike many other countries, the users must choose among phones carried by their major carrier). Android has been the primary draw for the users for the G1, but this is a temporary novelty until it is carried on multiple phone models. Most users are looking for a complete package of functionality for phones, and Google has some ability to influence its manufacturers to carry important adaptations. 15 Fortune Magazine; http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/category/market-share/ November 7, 2008 16 Ibid 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Ibid
  14. The Android is expected to become a worldwide leader for mobile phone operating systems. It will be carried on multiple cellular networks and used in phones built by the most popular manufacturers. However, there are limitations to its ability to expand internationally. First, Google’s business model for Android depends on advertising revenue from both local and online retailers. Its market, therefore, is limited to those regions with populations attractive to these advertisers (high discretionary income). These target regions must also contain retailers willing and capable of paying for mobile phone advertising. Some retailers are already utilizing mobile phone advertising this in Europe and Asia, most commonly via SMS text messages. Another limitation for an Android mobile phone is distribution. The G1 can be bought online, but most phones today are bought in retail stores. In order to succeed, Android must joint-venture with a manufacturer (and carrier if following the US cellular market model) that is widely accepted by its target customers and that already has a distribution system in the country. Finally, Android’s potential is limited by its target customer. The Android OS can be run on a mass- produced, low-end phone, but the limitations of this hardware would force Android to severely limit its functionality—and thus its differentiation and ability to compete successfully in the market. Therefore, assuming that Android will be run primarily on “smart phone” hardware, the target customer could be defined as those that would purchase a “smart phone.” Because Android, like iOS, has yet to be accepted by industry as a business productivity tool, this target customer likely to buy this phone for his or her own personal use. The most similar phone to the G1 in the United States is the Apple iPhone; the typical US buyer interested in buying the iPhone early in its life cycle had a household income of $75,000.00 (26% higher than the national average), is more likely to be male than female (72% male), has 58% likelihood to have complete college, and has an average age of 31 years old, with equal 20 proportions of buyers between the age brackets of 15-24, 25-34, and 35-45. In the United States, smart phone buyers are relatively sophisticated users that own other internet devices and computers. They use a smart phone to increase their convenience or productivity. They have a demand for a portable device with more applications than placing calls. However, transferring our definition of the market demand for this product from the developed world to other countries is a potential error. The Android operating system and its associated hardware is capable of replacing the functionality of a laptop (dual core processor, 32 GB expandable hard drive, 192 Mb SDRAM, Qwerty 20 Digital Life America. Solutions Research Group. http://www.intomobile.com/2007/06/13/chart-iphone-buyer- profile.html. Accessed February 18, 2009
  15. 21 keyboard, and an operating system to be released in laptops by 2010), digital camera (3.2 Mpixels) and cellphone. In the developing world, an Android phone like the G1 could be marketed as an all-in-one mobile device for users that do not have alternative access to the internet or to home computers. Google intends to subsidize the price of the hardware (the phone itself) in developing countries with the potential of generating mobile ad revenue. Also, because Android runs simultaneously on Google’s “cloud” and on the phone, it could potentially be used as a “slim client” – a stripped-down computer that sends its major processing tasks and data storage needs to servers elsewhere. GoogleDocs is an common example of such a processing task. A typical Android smart phone can be adapted to run word processing and excel sheet programs and be used as a primary computing device. Regions where ground-based internet infrastructure is lacking but that supports cellular telephones would be good markets for this type of device. The emergence of low-cost wireless broadband internet access through Wi-Max technology (beginning in 2010) would make this all-in-one device practical in parts of the 22 developing world. An Android all-in-one device would require additional software adaptation (like word processing applications) as well as hardware adaptations (ability to add a keyboard or TV monitor hookups). Education of customers (about its practicality and use) and education of local tech support would be recommended. The G1 battery is designed to accommodate 5 hours of heavy use, but creating easy access to additional low cost batteries and chargers (conventional and solar) would be helpful adaptations. The addition of a powerful processor with low power demands like Intel’s halfnium chip could also reduce its power demands. Android’s open source capability and easy-to-use Java programming language makes it markedly more adaptable than other devices. For example, while the system’s default language is English, users or phone vendors can go online and load their language into the system. Adaptations for regional dialects or uncommon languages can be made available for download by independent developers. Applications designed to meet the needs of local populations can be created by local developers and installed easily. 21 “ You can run Android on a netbook, but why would you want to?” Liliputing. January 28, 2009 http://www.liliputing.com/tag/android Accessed February 18, 2009 22 “Cisco Goes Where No WiMax Has Gone Before” The Motley Fool. February 10, 2009
  16. Unfortunately, this dependence on local developers for applications will limit Android’s expansion to nations that (China and India, for example) have an abundance of technical talent. Android has potential for global expansion worldwide. The key to a successful expansion is study of the markets based on selling the phone in a westernized smartphone market definition as well as the all-in-one device. As consumer acceptance of an all-in-one device in the developing world is an unknown factor, primary research here is essential.
  17. Appendix 2- Determination of Global Markets for Expansion, Ranking This model used to establish the top countries to enter with the Android mobile operating system was developed after determining that its consumers will primarily be retail (non-commercial) buyers. Therefore, the following variables were relevant: population, GDP per capita and number of internet users per capita Smart phones devices running the Android operating system are likely to be purchased primarily by consumers for personal use due to industry’s data security concerns and historical precedence from the iPhone. First, much like Google’s other SaaS application like Gmail and Google Docs, applications and data used on Android phones are run online on Google’s server cloud. Google is having difficulty with the adoption of these SaaS applications by industry partly due to the perception that SaaS applications could not keep data secure from competitors. 23 This perception is likely to apply to a mobile SaaS OS like Android. Second, iPhone has also been slowed in adoption for business use due to security concerns-- making benchmarking to the iPhone appropriate. According to Nielson Mobile, the majority of iPhone users are personal users. In a Q1 2008 study, 15% of iPhone users said that their companies pay their iPhone bills, 24% said that they use the phone for business but pay the bill themselves and 61% said that they were personal users. 24 Explanation of Variables Population Population was chosen to explain market size because, as a consumer product, the an Android phone could be purchased by anyone. This data was captured from NationMaster, 25 which uses 2008 data from the World Development Indicators database and the CIA World Factbook. GDP Per Capita 23 Kulick, Matt. Lecture on Cloud Computing and Google Enterprise Applications. Cornell University Phillips 101. 22 October, 2008 24 Media Blast. Nielson Mobile. http://www.nielsenmobile.com/html/press%20releases/iPhoneStatistics.html Q1 2008 25 http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph/peo_pop-people-population&b_printable=1&ob=ws
  18. Smartphones like Android phones (at present) are purchased primarily by users in wealthy nations. I calculated GDP per capita from NationMaster data. 26 Most GDP numbers are from 2006; a few smaller countries had 2000 or 2003 data. NationMaster data is from the World Development Indicators database and the CIA World Factbook. Number of Internet Users Per Capita The variable ‘number of internet users per capita’ is helpful in explaining the likelihood to purchase because it represents a nation’s interest in technology. I could have used the rate of adoption of mobile phones, but this would not be a relevant statistic. In some countries with high rates of mobile phone use, users buy cellular phones because the infrastructure for standard phones are lacking. Such reason for adoption will skew any results for a luxury/convenience product like a smartphone. 'Number of internet users' was a statistic from the CIA World Factbook. 27 I did not use an additional variable to represent supporting infrastructure statistic because it is highly correlated with Internet Usage Per Capita. Also, as mentioned in the previous report, the Android operating system can run on any kind of mobile network from CDMA to 3G. The rapid introduction of WiMax in developing countries to make broadband wireless access affordable and ubiquitous will begin in 2010. Wireless service is available in most populous countries, as reflected in the recent UN report 28 that six in ten people in the world now have a mobile phone subscription. Choice of method The Screening and Tradeoff technique for data analysis was used because Google has the resources needed to compete for the best markets. The Screening and Tradeoff technique allows one to choose the best markets regardless of competition. The screens that I chose to use were: 26 http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph/eco_gdp-economy-gdp&int=-1&b_printable=1&ob=ws 27 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2153rank.html 28 UN: Six in ten people now have a mobile phone subscription. International Herald Tribune. March 3, 2009
  19. Minimum population of 20,000,000 Minimum GDP per capita of $3,000 Internet usage per capita of .42 I chose a minimum population of 20,000,000 because this is a product that is not widely used and therefore requires a large market base to sell to. A Minimum GDP per capita of $3,000/yr would allow Android to be marketed to the top 23% of earners in the world. Finally, the median internet usage rate among the most final list of populous and wealthy nations is .42. I chose this as the screening minimum for the final screening. Final Multiplying and Summing After the final screening, I was left with this list of countries: Canada, South Korea, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Malaysia, Italy, Romania, Australia, Germany, France, Spain and Poland. These countries’ descriptive variables (Population, GDP Per Capita, Internet Usage Per Capita) were banded according to their membership in deciles. Finally, I weighted each variable by their contribution to overall market demand for the product: • Market Size: 3 • Wealth: 4 • Likelihood of Purchase: 2 Wealth was weighted highest because this product is an currently an expensive luxury product with expensive components. Consumer’s ability to afford the product is fundamental for demand. Market size is also important because smart phones are marketed to a niche segment that can be proportionally sized to the larger population. Finally, likelihood of purchase is weighted 2 because it is represented by Internet Usage Per Capita- a data point that can only be loosely correlated with interest in technology and, thus, smart phones. I included (and subsequently eliminated in the screening process) Brazil, Russia, India and China but added the two larger countries-- India and China-- back to the final list because their large populations
  20. and their wealth disparities could house a sizeable niche of individuals wealthy and educated enough to create sizeable demand for an Android smartphone. The final 10 countries recommended for further analysis are (in random order): South Korea, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, China, India, Canada, Taiwan, Malaysia and Italy. Data Problems I would have liked to have a variable to explain consumer attitude on data privacy. One of Android’s barriers to adoption is consumer reluctance to share their phone activities and data online. However, I could not find a representative statistic for all of the countries in the primary list. An additional variable that I searched for was adoption of smartphones on a country-to-country basis. I contacted the Johnson School Management Library and Robert Roche of the CTIA (an international association for the wireless telecommunications industry)—but they were also unable to find this information. If this information was available, it would be weighted 5 to reflect its importance in predicting Android OS’s diffusion.
  21. Exhibit A: Initial Screening a. Population Market Size Raw Screened Population (1s) Population (20,000,000 minimum) China: 1,330,044,544 Afghanistan: 32,738,376 India: 1,147,995,904 Algeria: 33,769,668 United States: 303,824,640 Argentina: 40,482,000 Indonesia: 237,512,352 Australia: 21,007,310 Brazil: 196,342,592 Bangladesh: 153,546,896 Pakistan: 172,800,048 Brazil: 196,342,592 Bangladesh: 153,546,896 Burma: 47,758,180 Nigeria: 146,255,312 Canada: 33,212,696 Russia: 140,702,096 China: 1,330,044,544 Japan: 127,288,416 Colombia: 45,013,672 Mexico: 109,955,400 Congo, Democratic Republic of the: 66,514,504 Philippines: 96,061,680 Côte d'Ivoire: 20,179,602 Vietnam: 86,116,560 Egypt: 81,713,520 Ethiopia: 82,544,840 Ethiopia: 82,544,840 Germany: 82,369,552 France: 61,037,510 Egypt: 81,713,520 Germany: 82,369,552 Turkey: 71,892,808 Ghana: 23,382,848 Congo, Democratic Republic of the: 66,514,504 India: 1,147,995,904 Iran: 65,875,224 Indonesia: 237,512,352 Thailand: 65,493,296 Iran: 65,875,224 France: 61,037,510 Iraq: 28,221,180 United Kingdom: 60,943,912 Italy: 58,145,320 Italy: 58,145,320 Japan: 127,288,416 South Africa: 48,782,756 Kenya: 37,953,840 Korea, South: 48,379,392 Korea, North: 23,479,088 Burma: 47,758,180 Korea, South: 48,379,392 Ukraine: 45,994,288 Madagascar: 20,042,552
  22. Colombia: 45,013,672 Malaysia: 25,274,132 Spain: 40,491,052 Mexico: 109,955,400 Argentina: 40,482,000 Morocco: 34,343,220 Sudan: 40,218,456 Mozambique: 21,284,700 Tanzania: 40,213,160 Nepal: 29,519,114 Poland: 38,500,696 Nigeria: 146,255,312 Kenya: 37,953,840 Pakistan: 172,800,048 Morocco: 34,343,220 Peru: 29,180,900 Algeria: 33,769,668 Philippines: 96,061,680 Canada: 33,212,696 Poland: 38,500,696 Afghanistan: 32,738,376 Romania: 22,246,862 Uganda: 31,367,972 Russia: 140,702,096 Nepal: 29,519,114 Saudi Arabia: 28,146,656 Peru: 29,180,900 South Africa: 48,782,756 Iraq: 28,221,180 Spain: 40,491,052 Saudi Arabia: 28,146,656 Sri Lanka: 21,128,772 Uzbekistan: 27,345,026 Sudan: 40,218,456 Venezuela: 26,414,816 Taiwan: 22,920,946 Malaysia: 25,274,132 Tanzania: 40,213,160 Korea, North: 23,479,088 Thailand: 65,493,296 Ghana: 23,382,848 Turkey: 71,892,808 Yemen: 23,013,376 Uganda: 31,367,972 Taiwan: 22,920,946 Ukraine: 45,994,288 Romania: 22,246,862 United Kingdom: 60,943,912 Mozambique: 21,284,700 United States: 303,824,640 Sri Lanka: 21,128,772 Uzbekistan: 27,345,026 Australia: 21,007,310 Venezuela: 26,414,816 Côte d'Ivoire: 20,179,602 Vietnam: 86,116,560 Madagascar: 20,042,552 Yemen: 23,013,376 Syria: 19,747,586 Total 5,996,984,230 Cameroon: 18,467,692 Average 107,089,004 Netherlands: 16,645,313 Median: 42,752,362 Chile: 16,454,143 Kazakhstan: 15,340,533 Burkina Faso: 15,264,735 Cambodia: 14,241,640 Malawi: 13,931,831 Ecuador: 13,927,650 Niger: 13,272,679 Guatemala: 13,002,206 Senegal: 12,853,259 Angola: 12,531,357
  23. Mali: 12,324,029 Zambia: 11,669,534 Cuba: 11,423,952 Zimbabwe: 11,350,111 Greece: 10,722,816 Portugal: 10,676,910 Belgium: 10,403,951 Tunisia: 10,383,577 Czech Republic: 10,220,911 Rwanda: 10,186,063 Serbia and Montenegro: 10,159,046 Chad: 10,111,337 Hungary: 9,930,915 Guinea: 9,806,509 Belarus: 9,685,768 Somalia: 9,558,666 Dominican Republic: 9,507,133 Bolivia: 9,247,816 Sweden: 9,045,389 Haiti: 8,924,553 Burundi: 8,691,005 Benin: 8,532,547 Austria: 8,205,533 Azerbaijan: 8,177,717 Honduras: 7,639,327 Switzerland: 7,581,520 Bulgaria: 7,262,675 Tajikistan: 7,211,884 Israel: 7,112,359 El Salvador: 7,066,403 Hong Kong: 7,018,636 Paraguay: 6,831,306 Laos: 6,677,534 Sierra Leone: 6,294,774 Jordan: 6,198,677 Libya: 6,173,579 Papua New Guinea: 5,931,769 Togo: 5,858,673 Nicaragua: 5,785,846 Eritrea: 5,502,026 Denmark: 5,484,723 Slovakia: 5,455,407 Kyrgyzstan: 5,356,869
  24. Finland: 5,244,749 Turkmenistan: 5,179,571 Norway: 4,644,457 Georgia: 4,630,841 United Arab Emirates: 4,621,399 Singapore: 4,608,167 Bosnia and Herzegovina: 4,590,310 Croatia: 4,491,543 Central African Republic: 4,444,330 Moldova: 4,324,450 Costa Rica: 4,195,914 New Zealand: 4,173,460 Ireland: 4,156,119 Lebanon: 3,971,941 Puerto Rico: 3,958,128 Congo, Republic of the: 3,903,318 Albania: 3,619,778 Lithuania: 3,565,205 Uruguay: 3,477,778 Mauritania: 3,364,940 Liberia: 3,334,587 Oman: 3,311,640 Panama: 3,309,679 Mongolia: 2,996,081 Armenia: 2,968,586 Jamaica: 2,804,332 Kuwait: 2,596,799 West Bank: 2,407,681 Latvia: 2,245,423 Lesotho: 2,128,180 Namibia: 2,088,669 Macedonia, Republic of: 2,061,315 Slovenia: 2,007,711 Botswana: 1,842,323 Gambia, The: 1,735,464 Guinea-Bissau: 1,503,182 Gaza Strip: 1,500,202 Gabon: 1,485,832 Estonia: 1,307,605 Mauritius: 1,274,189 Swaziland: 1,128,814 East Timor: 1,108,777 Trinidad and Tobago: 1,047,366
  25. Fiji: 931,741 Qatar: 824,789 Cyprus: 792,604 Réunion: 787,584 Guyana: 770,794 Comoros: 731,775 Bahrain: 718,306 Bhutan: 682,321 Montenegro: 678,177 Equatorial Guinea: 616,459 Solomon Islands: 581,318 Macau: 545,674 Djibouti: 506,221 Luxembourg: 486,006 Suriname: 475,996 Guadeloupe: 452,776 Martinique: 436,131 Cape Verde: 426,998 Malta: 403,532 Western Sahara: 393,831 Maldives: 385,925 Brunei: 381,371 Bahamas, The: 307,451 Iceland: 304,367 Belize: 301,270 French Polynesia: 283,019 Barbados: 281,968 Netherlands Antilles: 225,369 New Caledonia: 224,824 Samoa: 217,083 Mayotte: 216,306 Vanuatu: 215,446 São Tomé and Príncipe: 206,178 French Guiana: 199,509 Guam: 175,877 Saint Lucia: 159,585 Tonga: 119,009 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 118,432 Kiribati: 110,356 Virgin Islands: 109,840 Micronesia, Federated States of: 107,665 Aruba: 101,541 Jersey: 91,533
  26. Grenada: 90,343 Northern Mariana Islands: 86,616 Antigua and Barbuda: 84,522 Andorra: 82,627 Seychelles: 82,247 Man, Isle of: 76,220 Dominica: 72,514 Bermuda: 66,536 Guernsey: 65,726 American Samoa: 64,827 Marshall Islands: 63,174 Greenland: 57,564 Faroe Islands: 48,668 Cayman Islands: 47,862 Saint Kitts and Nevis: 39,817 Liechtenstein: 34,498 Monaco: 32,796 San Marino: 29,973 Saint Martin: 29,376 Gibraltar: 28,002 British Virgin Islands: 24,041 Turks and Caicos Islands: 22,352 Palau: 21,093 Wallis and Futuna: 15,237 Anguilla: 14,108 Nauru: 13,770 Cook Islands: 12,271 Tuvalu: 12,177 Saint Helena: 7,601 Saint Barthelemy: 7,492 Saint Pierre and Miquelon: 7,044 Montserrat: 5,079 Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas): 3,140 Svalbard: 2,165 Norfolk Island: 2,128 Niue: 1,444 Tokelau: 1,433 Christmas Island: 1,402 Holy See (Vatican City): 824 Cocos (Keeling) Islands: 596 Johnston Atoll: 396 Pitcairn Islands: 48 Total: 6,705,862,170
  27. Average: 27,825,154.20 Median: 4,467,937 Minimum (border) 20,000,000 b. Wealth Per Capita Wealth per capita (=GDP/Population) Wealth per capita (GDP/Population) Raw Screened GDP GDP Afghanistan: $256.55 Algeria: $3,397.34 Algeria: $3,397.34 Argentina: $5,287.73 Argentina: $5,287.73 Australia: $36,567.16 Australia: $36,567.16 Brazil: $5,439.28 Bangladesh: $403.53 Canada: $37,680.26 Brazil: $5,439.28 Colombia: $3,017.66 Burma: $1,560.57 France: $36,546.72 Canada: $37,680.26 Germany: $35,288.29 China: $2,006.00 Iran: $3,383.51 Colombia: $3,017.66 Italy: $31,726.53 Congo, Democratic Republic of the: $128.44 Japan: $34,096.84 Côte d'Ivoire: $866.42 Korea, South: $18,355.42 Egypt: $1,315.38 Malaysia: $5,893.00 Ethiopia: $161.31 Mexico: $7,632.02 France: $36,546.72 Peru: $3,196.24 Germany: $35,288.29 Poland: $8,798.10 Ghana: $551.94 Romania: $5,466.35 India: $789.43 Russia: $7,014.39 Indonesia: $1,534.48 Saudi Arabia: $11,005.87 Iran: $3,383.51 South Africa: $5,227.08 Iraq: $446.56 Spain: $30,228.60 Italy: $31,726.53 Taiwan: $23,061.88 Japan: $34,096.84 Thailand: $3,149.13 Kenya: $558.20 Turkey: $5,601.53 Korea, North: $1,259.84 United Kingdom: $38,478.25 Korea, South: $18,355.42 United States: $43,452.10 Madagascar: $274.38 Venezuela: $6,884.84 Malaysia: $5,893.00 Total: 455,876 Mexico: $7,632.02 Average: 16,884.30
  28. Morocco: $1,668.65 Median: 7,632 Mozambique: $357.45 Minimum: $3,000.00 Nepal: $272.76 Nigeria: $784.15 Pakistan: $745.54 Peru: $3,196.24 Philippines: $1,217.25 Poland: $8,798.10 Romania: $5,466.35 Russia: $7,014.39 Saudi Arabia: $11,005.87 South Africa: $5,227.08 Spain: $30,228.60 Sri Lanka: $1,276.30 Sudan: $934.01 Taiwan: $23,061.88 Tanzania: $317.90 Thailand: $3,149.13 Turkey: $5,601.53 Uganda: $297.18 Ukraine: $2,307.05 United Kingdom: $38,478.25 United States: $43,452.10 Uzbekistan: $628.21 Venezuela: $6,884.84 Vietnam: $706.99 Yemen: $828.07 Total: 480,331 Weighted average: 8,577.33 Median: 2,157 Minimum: $3,000.00
  29. c. Internet Usage Per Capita Likelihood of Purchase (Internet Users/Population) Likelihood of Purchase (Internet Users/Population) Raw Screened Internet Users Per Capita Internet Users Per Capita Algeria 0.10 Canada 0.84 Argentina 0.23 Korea, South 0.74 Australia 0.54 United States 0.73 Brazil 0.25 Japan 0.69 Canada 0.84 United Kingdom 0.66 Colombia 0.27 Taiwan 0.64 France 0.51 Malaysia 0.63 Germany 0.52 Italy 0.55 Iran 0.35 Romania 0.54 Italy 0.55 Australia 0.54 Japan 0.69 Germany 0.52 Korea, South 0.74 France 0.51 Malaysia 0.63 Spain 0.49 Mexico 0.21 Poland 0.42 Peru 0.26 Total: 8.49 Poland 0.42 Average: 0.606545035 Romania 0.54 Median: 0.59 Russia 0.21 Minimum: 0.42 Saudi Arabia 0.22 South Africa 0.10 Spain 0.49 Taiwan 0.64 Thailand 0.20 Turkey 0.18 United Kingdom 0.66 United States 0.73 Venezuela 0.22 Total: 11.30931901 Average: 0.418863667
  30. Median: 0.415576903 Minimum: 0.42 Exhibit B: Normalized Data, Weighting, Final List excluding India and China Market Size (Population) Wealth (GDP Per Capita) Weight: 3 Weight: 4 Band ID Band ID (Quintile) (Quintile) Australia 21,007,310.00 1 Australia 36,567.16 8 Canada 33,212,696.00 3 Canada 37,680.26 8 France 61,037,510.00 8 France 36,546.72 7 Germany 82,369,552.00 8 Germany 35,288.29 6 Italy 58,145,320.00 5 Italy 31,726.53 5 Japan 127,288,416.00 9 Japan 34,096.84 6 Korea, South 48,379,392.00 6 Korea, South 18,355.42 3 Malaysia 25,274,132.00 3 Malaysia 5,893.00 1 Poland 38,500,696.00 4 Poland 8,798.10 2 Romania 22,246,862.00 1 Romania 5,466.35 1 Spain 40,491,052.00 5 Spain 30,228.60 4 Taiwan 22,920,946.00 2 Taiwan 23,061.88 3 United United Kingdom 60,943,912.00 7 Kingdom 38,478.25 9 United States 303,824,640.00 10 United States 43,452.10 10 Total: 945,642,436.00 Total: 385,639.51 Average: 67545888.29 Average: 27545.67906 Median: 44,435,222.00 Median: 32,911.68
  31. Likelihood of Purchase (Internet Users Per Capita) Final List of Countries =SUM of Each Band ID x Weight: 2 Weight Band ID RAN (Quintile) K Australia 0.54 3 United States 86.00 1 United Canada 0.84 10 Kingdom 71.00 2 France 0.51 2 Japan 67.00 3 Germany 0.52 3 Canada 61.00 4 Italy 0.55 5 France 56.00 5 Japan 0.69 8 Germany 54.00 6 Korea, South 0.74 9 Korea, South 48.00 7 Malaysia 0.63 6 Italy 45.00 8 Poland 0.42 1 Australia 41.00 9 Romania 0.54 4 Spain 33.00 10 Spain 0.49 1 Taiwan 30.00 11 Taiwan 0.64 6 Malaysia 25.00 12 United Kingdom 0.66 7 Poland 22.00 13 United States 0.73 8 Romania 15.00 14 Total: 8.49 Total: 654.00 0.60654503 46.7142857 Average: 5 Average: 1 Median: 0.59 Median: 46.50
  32. Appendix 3- Market Descriptions-Korea and United Kingdom KOREA Who are the c ? Smartphone phone users in Korea can be divided into two segments: corporate consumers and retail consumers. Corporate consumers place greater emphasis on productivity-enhancing applications and
  33. security. Retail consumers demand a bundle of attributes including design, price, and function and popularity of the phone. Both retail and corporate consumers demand standard Korean language features like Korean language input and display. What are their purchase habits (decision-making, location of purchase, etc.)? Consumer sophistication in Korea is very high, as nearly 93% of Koreans carry mobile phones. 29 Primary research has indicated that, while the final decision of which phone to purchase is one of personal preference, word of mouth and popularity is very important. User reviews online are very influential in the purchasing process. Koreans consider their phones (denoting a difference in product definition) as a fashion accessory and design is key, often eclipsing price and functionality as a criterion. Importance of functions differ by consumer age- gaming and television viewing is more important to younger generations. The market is very trend-based where new phones are introduced frequently with a lot of promotions celebrity endorsements and advertisements. Handset price is less important than service subscription price (typically $30-40/mo) since service providers provide subsidized handsets in exchange for customer contracts. Phones can be purchased in several locations including department stores, service provider stores, mega electronics stores (100+stores in one building) and temporary street promotion booths. Prices differ at these distribution points, so people often look for the best product/discount/service bundle. How are products and services being used? Mobile phones have become an important part of everyday life in Korea and are far more integrated into day-to-day activities than people in most other countries. According to mTrends, 63 percent of South Koreans make payments using their cell phones. In 2006, 30 percent of students sent over 100 text messages a day. Koreans watched an average of 129 minutes of television on their cell phones every day and 37% have downloaded games onto their cell phones. 30 29 “Apple, Nokia eye the Korean market,” The Korea Herald, August 21, 2008 30 http://www.m-trends.org/2008/10/a-day-in-the-life-of-a-mobile-phone-in-seoul.html
  34. If the market is changing, how? The worldwide mobile market is in flux. The global financial crisis has been leading demand to drop as consumers are choosing to delay upgrading their phones. 31 Mobile phone sales have been suffering a drop in volume sales year-over-year worldwide. Smartphones, however, are still at the early part of their product cycle and their sales have continued to increase despite the economic downturn. Their sales worldwide are predicted to grow 8.9 percent this year and increase to 24 percent in 2010. 32 Korean smartphone sales are increasing rapidly. The first smartphone, the Samsung Ultra Messaging Phone, arrived in 2005 but failed to sell in large numbers due to high prices and problems with the interface. Last year, smartphones made up 1% of all mobile phone models on sale. However, the successful introduction and preliminary sales of several new models (Blackberry, HTC Dual Touch) leads industry experts to expect smartphones to sell increasingly well in the coming years. 33 Korea’s mobile data networks are also changing. When Korea chose a 2G network standard to build its mobile infrastructure, it used CDMA, which differs from the global standard and created a competitive hurdle for other standard phone makers. It is now shifting to 3G networks, thus flattening the playing field for competitors as well as supporting high-data smartphone usage. Currently, 50% of Korea’s mobile phone subscribers have 3G services included in their phone plans. Foreign handset manufactures are likely to be hurt by the drop in value of the Korean won. This drop in value will likely raise the import prices of foreign goods for domestic buyers and hurt demand for these phones. What is the distribution system (if relevant) or the entry structure of other foreign competitors (if relevant)? 31 Joan Ng, “Mobile phone makers find ways to survive hard times,” The Edge Singapore, January 19, 2009 32 Brian Perez, “Smartphones set to weather market decline.” South China Morning Post, December 23, 2008 33 “Spring is smartphone season, from the iPhone to the Insight,” Joins.com, February 27, 2009
  35. The largest mobile phone service provider is SK Telecom, which has more than 22 milion subscribers and more than 50% market share. 34 Korea’s second-largest service provider is KTF (Korea Telecom Freetel) with 12 million subscribers. Like in the US, phones in Korea are sold by the service provider, often with a price subsidy applied to the handset cost in exchange for signing a service contract. SK Telecom is the largest telecommunication provider in Korea with more than 22 million subscribers and 50% market share. 35 Korea’s second-largest service provider is KTF (Korea Telecom Freetel) with 12 million subscribers— the first Korean mobile phone service to offer the Apple iPhone (late 2009). 36 Phones sold in Korea are manufactured by local players—Samsung and LG account for 80% of the handset market. 37 Locals Pantech and Curitel own 18% of the handset market and US-based Motorola has a market share of less than 10%. 38An operating system trying to enter Korea would be wise to joint- venture with Samsung or LG as well as SK Telecom or KTF. There are four foreign handset manufacturers in Korea today-Motorola, Casio and HTC and newcomer RIM (Blackberry). 39 Who are your competitors and how are they communicating with customers? Most smartphones in Korea use Microsoft Mobile OS which accounts for 90 percent of the market. 40 SK Telecom has recently introduced the Blackberry phone 41 that is targeted primarily at business consumers. This is a new entry in Korea’s traditionally closed smartphone market environment dominated by Korean firms. Korean telecommunications firms (service providers and handset manufacturers) spend heavily on marketing--often using celebrities in their advertising. Primary research has indicated that image and a 34 “SK Telecom and RIM introduces the Blackberry solution in Korea,” ENP Newswire, December 16, 2009 35 Ibid 36 “Spring is smartphone season, from the iPhone to the Insight,” Joins.com, February 27, 2009 37 “Apple, Nokia eye the Korean market,” The Korea Herald, August 21, 2008 38 “Can foreign handsets succeed?,” The Korea Herald, March 3, 2009 39 “Apple, Nokia eye the Korean market,” The Korea Herald, August 21, 2008 40 http://news.softpedia.com/news/Android-to-Go-to-Korea-This-Year-107829.shtml 41 “SK Telecom and RIM introduces the Blackberry solution in Korea,” ENP Newswire, December 16, 2009
  36. feeling of belonging (collectivism) is very important to Koreans, so consumer communications often include celebrities in advertising. Most Koreans are solely familiar with the larger local firms like Samsung and LG. I would recommend that a new entrant in the smartphone OS market co-brand with well-known Korean firms to take advantage of its top-of-mind position in Korea. It would be very difficult for a multinational to justify outspending local firms there in an effort to compete for consumer awareness. What are the political restrictions/regulations? Until late last year, one of Android’s largest stumbling blocks for entry into Korea was its local mobile software standard, WIPI (Wireless Internet Platform for Interoperability), designed to create barriers to entry by foreign handset manufacturers and maintaining market share for LG and Samsung. 42 This standard was middleware (software) that had to be integrated (at great expense) into a phone’s operating system. On December 8, 2008, it was announced that this requirement will be lifted beginning April 1, 2009, allowing access to the Korean market by foreign systems like Apple OS. Sumsung/RIM’s Blackberry was granted an exception to the rule just prior to the announcement. It can be predicted that these regulatory changes will make Korea’s smartphone OS market more competitive and fragmented; Apple, HTC, and Nokia have announced plans for new smartphones to be released in Korea this year. UK Who are the customers? As in Korea, mobile phone consumers in the UK can be divided into two segments: corporate consumers and retail consumers. Corporate consumers place greater emphasis on productivity-enhancing applications and security. As stated in the prior section, suspicions regarding security due 42 Cho Jin-seo, “IT regulation prevents Korean access to iPhone,” The Korea Times, June 10, 2008
  37. to the SaaS model used by the Android system compels Google to focus on retail buyers and small business buyers in the short term. Retail consumers demand a bundle of attributes including design, price, and function. Unlike Korean consumers, popularity of the phone is not as important as the individual buyer’s decided preference for the phone for him/herself. The UK mobile phone market is well-saturated. There are 74 million mobile phone subscribers with a population of 60 million. The smartphone market in the UK is large, contributing to sales of 470,000,000 pounds in 2008. Over 85% of adults have a mobile phone. The UK population is also growing—making this an attractive market for suppliers. The British population has historically been aging, but those that are being marketed to by cell-phone providers (below 45) have grown up with technology and are not predicted to leave the marketplace. What are their purchase habits (decision-making, location of purchase, etc.)? The typical phone purchase transaction in the UK proceeds as follows: (1) the consumer determines a monthly budget for mobile phone service and selects a service plan accordingly. (2) The consumer chooses a handset that fits the predetermined budget (price) based on design and functionality; According to primary research, design is considered more important than functionality for the typical British consumer. Consumers are increasingly purchasing bundles of phones and service contracts in branded packages like T-mobile package called “Life’s for Sharing” and Nokia’s “Comes with Music.” As other mobile phones are increasingly becoming commoditized, branding is becoming more and more critical to the profitability of firms in this industry. Smartphones are more costly investments than regular phones, and UK shoppers are researching these phones online before purchasing. 50% read online customer reviews before buying a smartphone, compared to 30% that read online reviews before buying a cellphone. 43 43 “Smartphone sales are keeping the flagging UK mobile market afload, shielding it…,” Computer Weekly, April 21, 2009
  38. UK mobile phone buyers purchase most (61% of all phone sales volume) phones in a fragmented group of specialty mobile phone stores like “The Carphone Warehouse” (13% of specialty store volume), Phones4U (8% of specialty store volume) and O2 stores (7% of specialty store volume). 15% of all phone sales volume is sold in department stores and electronics stores. 10% are sold in supermarkets and 12% are sold via internet/telephone/mail order. 44 How are products and services being used? While mobile phone application usage is not as high in the UK as it is in Korea, most British phone owners report using most of the features available on their phones. 65% of mobile phone users report taking pictures on their phone (33% year on year growth between 2007 and 2008). 44% send pictures on their phone (63% growth), 36% use Bluetooth, 35% play games (59% growth), 31% listen to music (72% growth), 31% make videos (24% growth), 24% browse the internet (33% growth), 22% listen to the radio (57% growth), and 14% send video (75% growth). The United Kingdom’s heavy mobile application use may be correlated with its well-developed mobile phone infrastructure; 90% of the country is covered by high speed 3-G networks. Smartphones are used heavily for regular emailing (77% of smartphone users), GPS positioning (40%) and instant messaging (38%). 45 A large number of UK consumers, 1 million, now use mobile banking services. 46 If the market is changing, how? The mobile phone market in the United Kingdom, like that in the rest of the world, is being affected by the global financial crisis. Consumers are reducing their subscription plans by an average of 4 pounds per month. 47 However, a Mintel survey conducted in November of 2008 indicates that the economy will have only limited impact on Briton’s mobile phone consumption. Only 12% of respondents indicated 44 “Distribution,” Mobile Phones and Network Providers – UK, November 2008 45 “Smartphone sales are keeping the flagging UK mobile market afload, shielding it…,” Computer Weekly, April 21, 2009 46 “Monolink aligns with the growth of smartphones,” M2 Presswire, February 6, 2009 47 “Smartphone sales are keeping the flagging UK mobile market afload, shielding it…,” Computer Weekly, April 21, 2009
  39. that they would switch networks for a cheaper service plan and only 4% planned to switch from a contract to a pay-as-you-go system. 48 Further, a large percentage (60%) of UK mobile users does not expect the economy to change their mobile phone buying decisions. 49 Despite the state of the economy, smartphone sales are rising. 13% of all handset sales in 2007 were smartphones and 23 % of all handset sales in 2008 were smartphones. This is due in part to planned upgrades of current mobile phones. According to Computer Weekly, 25% of Brits say that their next phone will be a smartphone. 50 There is another market-shifting trend beginning in the mobile phone industry. The popularity of particular smartphone brands like the Apple iPhone have drawn market share power from the service provider to the handset manufacturer and the consumer. Consumers are increasingly demanding particular phones (and operating systems) from their service provider 51—moving away from their traditional decisions model based on price. O2 profited from this shift in consumer behavior in 2007 with their exclusive launch of the Apple iPhone. Vodaphone sales were pushed up significantly from their exclusive launch of the Blackberry Storm. I would recommend that Google leverage this shift in consumer power by marketing directly to consumers to develop a consumer pull for their OS. What is the distribution system (if relevant) or the entry structure of other foreign competitors (if relevant)? Like in Korea, mobile phones are sold by service providers as a package under a service contract. Unlike Korea, however, the UK mobile phone service market is competitive and fragmented. The largest market shares in mobile services are owned by 02 with 25.6% of the UK market, Orange with 21.3% of the market, Vodaphone with 22.1% and T-Mobile with 17.2%. Also selling mobile phone services in the UK are Virgin Mobile, 3 and Tesco. 52 Taking this fragmented market into consideration, it may be more beneficial to Google to advertise the Android operating system separately (no co-branding) from the 48 “Market in Brief,” Mobile Phones and Network Providers – UK, November 2008 49 Ibid 50 “Smartphone sales are keeping the flagging UK mobile market afload, shielding it…,” Computer Weekly, April 21, 2009 51 Ibid 52 “Market Share,” Mobile Phones and Network Providers – UK, November 2008
  40. service provider and try to get it installed in phones sold by as many mobile network providers as possible. The mobile phone handset market is less fragmented than the mobile service market. The largest handset percentage share in the UK is owned by Nokia with 43% of the market. Sony-Ericsson has 18% if the market and Samsung has 21% of the market. The remaining handset market share is divided among Motorola, LG and others. 53 Due to the fragmented nature of the handset market, I would recommend that Android become installed first in a Nokia phone—and then distribute the OS to other players in the market. Who are your competitors and how are they communicating with customers? Google’s Android OS’s competitors in the UK are as varied as the handset manufactures and include Symbian OS, Apple’s OS (iPhone), RIM’s Blackberry OS, Windows Mobile OS, and Linux OS. Advertising spend in the mobile handsets and networks sector has been dropping steadily since the end of 2006, dropping 15.7% overall between Q3 2006 and Q3 2008. In response, service providers are branding phone/subscription packages and advertising them in innovative ways. T-mobile’s “Life’s for Sharing” package and campaign includes integrated marketing techniques like the hiring of performance artists and training of T-mobile employees to “unexpectedly” dance in London’s Liverpool Station. Audience member’s reactions were filmed for use in commercials. 54 Related ads were placed in digital outdoor ads, print ads, online ads, and radio advertisements as well as in advertisements in movie previews. Is should be noted that--in contrast to Korean advertising—the “Life’s for Sharing” campaign starred regular people, not celebrities. Advertisers in the United Kingdom and the US do not use celebrities as often as Japan, Korea and China (where over 20% of ads feature celebrities). 55 Research firm Millward Brown has determined that this is due to differences in effectiveness for celebrity endorsements. Some of these differences could include the emphasis on individuality over collectiveness in European countries. 53 “Market Share,” Mobile Phones and Network Providers – UK, November 2008 54 http://adzilla.blogspot.com/2009/01/t-mobile-lifes-for-sharing.html 55 http://www.millwardbrown.com/Sites/MillwardBrown/Media/Pdfs/en/KnowledgePoints/358D2249.pdf
  41. What are the political restrictions/regulations? There are very few political restrictions that would affect a foreign mobile service/handset/OS firm from entering the UK phone market. To illustrate the openness of the UK mobile phone regulatory environment, look at the dominant players in the industry. The dominate handset manufactures are from Finland (Nokia), Sweden and Japan (Sony Ericsson) and Korea (Samsung). The largest mobile phone service providers are from the UK (O2 and Vodaphone), France (Orange) and Germany (T- Mobile).
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