Presentation at Roxbury Community Center

1. Boston by the Numbers
October 26, 2016

2. imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

3. imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

4. Since Fall 2015, we have had over 12,000+ interactions with
Bostonians across the City to hear their vision and concerns for
Boston in 2030 and beyond.
Utile – can we show images of the visioning sessions, open houses, textizen, etc here
imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

5. Today, we are here to talk about the opportunity – and the
challenges – presented by Boston’s recent growth.
Boston’s population has
recovered from a mid-
century decline, growing
steadily between 1980 and
2010 and accelerating rapidly
over the last five years.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial
Census; U.S. Census Bureau, 2010
Decennial Census, 2014 1-Year
American Community Survey
imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

6. Boston wasn’t always growing. Declining industry, a movement to
the suburbs and local race relations led to population loss.
Population change over time benchmarked to 1950
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate; HR&A analysis
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
1950 1960 1970 1980
Boston 801,444
Population peak
New York City, -10%
Baltimore, -17%
Philadelphia, -19%
Washington D.C., -20%
Boston, -30% 562,994
Lowest point in 20th century
San Francisco, -12%
% Change, 1950-1980
Seattle, -6%
imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

7. Beginning in the 1980s, Boston began to recover population,
entering a league with dynamic, knowledge-driven peer cities.
Population change over time compared to 1980
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate; HR&A analysis
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
Boston, 12%
629,182
New York City, 17%
Baltimore, -21%
Washington D.C., -3%
% Change, 1980-2013
Boston,
562,994
1980
Philadelphia, -9%
San Francisco, 20%
Seattle, 26%
2013
CAGR: .2% CAGR: .26% CAGR: .47% CAGR: .62%
imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

8. 6%
Population growth
to 656,051, 2010-2014
7%
Job growth
to 642,265, 2010-2014
Sources: EMSI, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2014 1-year American Community Surveys, BRA Research Division Analysis
617,594 597,671
38,457 44,594
Population Jobs
2010
2014
This growth has accelerated over the past five years and is
expected to continue, with over 700,000 residents expected by 2030.
imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston

9. BOSTON'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 – 2030
BOSTON'S POPULATION: PAST AND
FUTURE BPDA Research Division
October, 2016

10. BOSTON'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 – 2030TRENDS

11. 11
667,137
617,594
589,141
574,823
562,994
641,071
697,197
801,444
770,816781,188
748,060
670,585
560,892
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Boston's Population (1900-2015)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis
2015
 Boston’s population reached its peak in 1950, with just over 800,000 residents
 Like many major U.S. cities, Boston experienced significant decline in the post-World War II era. By 1980, Boston’s population fell to
under 563,000 residents
 Since 1980, Boston’s population grew by 18%, with the 2010 Census marking the first time since 1970 that Boston’s population
exceeded 600,000 people

12.  The population growth between 2000 and 2010 (4.8%) marks the first time in the last one hundred years that the population of
Boston grew faster than that of the state (3.1%)
4.8%
2.5%2.1%
-12.2%
-8.1%
-13.0%
4.0%
-1.3%
4.4%
11.6%
19.6%
3.1%
5.5%
4.9%
0.8%
10.5%
9.8%
8.7%
1.6%
10.3%
14.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population Growth for Boston and Massachusetts by Decade (1910 – 2010)
Boston % Change Massachusetts % Change
1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1910-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

13.  Boston’s population growth between 2000 and 2010 compares favorably to most Northern cities. Other cities on this list –
including Charlotte, Raleigh and Austin – benefit from their states’ liberal land annexation laws, which allow them to expand
their populations by annexing adjacent land
1
46.3%
35.2%
20.4%
10.3%
10.2%
9.4%
8.2%
8.0%
7.5%
6.9%
5.7%
5.2%
4.8%
3.7%
2.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.0%
-4.6%
-6.9%
-8.3%
-8.6%
-25.0%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Austin, TX
Portland, OR
Miami, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Denver, CO
Seattle, WA
Houston, TX
San Diego, CA
San Jose, CA
Washington, DC
Boston, MA
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
Atlanta, GA
Dallas, TX
Philadelphia, PA
Minneapolis, MN
Baltimore, MD
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
Pittsburgh, PA
Detroit, MI
Population Growth with Comparison Cities (2000 - 2010)
This report’s consistent set of 25 comparison cities: the principal cities of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, plus 3 cities whose highly educated metro area populations make them good comparisons for
Boston. These include Raleigh, Austin and San Jose.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

14.  Since 1970, the foreign-born population has increased significantly, driving Boston’s population growth
 From 1980 to 2000, all of Boston’s population growth was due to growth in the foreign-born population
 Since 2000, both the foreign-born and native-born populations have been growing
801,444
697,938
641,071
562,994 574,283 589,141
617,594
669,469657,352
587,974
557,068
475,938 459,686
437,305 454,072 479,346
144,092
109,964
83,988 87,056
114,597
151,836
167,311
190,123
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Native and Foreign-born Components of Boston's Population (1950-2015)
Total Population Native Born Foreign Born American Community Survey Estimates
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Decennial Census, 2006-2010 & 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
Note: Nativity components for 2010 come from the ACS and the Total comes from the Decennial Census so the components do not sum to the total shown.
2015

15.  In 2010, Boston’s population was 52% female, a higher proportion than the US and Massachusetts (50.8% and 51.6% respectively)
 Between 2000 and 2010, the female population in Boston grew by 5.3%, while the male population grew slightly more slowly at 4.4%
1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2015 1-Year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
388,180
334,707
295,240
265,526
275,972 283,588
295,951
322,149
413,264
362,490
345,831
297,468 298,311 305,553
321,643
347,320
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Gender Component of Boston's Population (1950-2015)
Males Females

16.  Demographic growth is based on (a) natural growth -- births minus deaths -- and (b) net migration
 Natural growth in 2012 was 4,274 persons. The decline in deaths over the decade contributed to an increase in natural growth
 Immigration also drives Boston's population growth in part because of the high number of births to immigrants - 40% of Boston births
are to foreign-born mothers
1Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, BPDA Research Division Analysis
8,067 8,216 8,003 7,812 7,716 7,547
7,906 7,852 8,015 7,973 7,807
8,042 8,011 7,817
4,500 4,572 4,416 4,284
4,063 4,070
3,812 3,878 3,701 3,649 3,595 3,742 3,7803,567 3,644 3,587 3,528 3,653 3,477
4,040 4,137 4,272 4,158
4,447 4,269
4,037
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Boston Resident Births and Deaths (2000-2013)
Births Deaths Natural Change

17.  The natural population growth of the White population went from negative in 2000 to positive in 2003 and continued to grow
through 2012
 The natural population growth of the Black/African American population remained positive but decreased due to a lower number of
births
 The natural population growth of the Latino population remained high, at 1,705 in 2012
 Asian natural growth remained steady over the periods 2000-2012
1Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Public Health Commission Research and Evaluation Office, BPDA Research Division Analysis
541 508
470 448 452 441 540
1,499
1,373
1,158
1,330
1,125
1,200
1,172
1,585 1,618
1,404
1,517
1,507
1,461
1,705
-336
-194
204
297
762
916 768
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Boston Natural Population Growth by Race and Ethnicity (2000-2012)
Asian Black Hispanic White

18.  Boston’s White population decreased from 80% of the population in 1970 to 47% in 2010
 The share of the Hispanic/Latino population increased from 3% in 1970 to 18% of Boston’s population in 2010
 The African American population shifted from 16% of the population in 1970 to 22% of the population in 2010
 Hispanic and Asian immigration contribute heavily to Boston’s growing diversity
1Note: 2000 was the first year the Census compiled data on individuals who identified themselves as multiracial. Those who indicated “two or more races” are included in “Other” in 2000 and 2010 in this chart.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 -2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
79.8%
67.9%
59.0%
49.5% 47.0% 44.7%
15.8%
21.7%
23.8%
23.8%
22.4% 22.9%
2.6%
6.4%
10.8%
14.4%
17.5% 19.5%
2.7% 5.2%
7.5% 8.9% 9.5%
4.5% 4.1% 3.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Boston's Diverse Population 1970-2015
White Black / African American Hispanic / Latino Asian / Pacific Islander Other Race*

19. 19
 Since 2000, Boston has become a “majority-minority” city. The non-white population is over 50% partly due to the growth of the
foreign-born population from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia
 This trend continued in 2010 with the minority population making up 53% of Boston’s population or about 328,231 residents
1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% 5.3%
9.8%
20.2%
32.1%
41.0%
50.5%
53.0%
98.6% 98.3% 98.1% 97.7% 97.8% 97.7% 97.1% 96.7%
94.7%
90.2%
79.8%
67.9%
59.0%
49.5%
47.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Boston's Minority Population 1870-2010
Total non-White population White population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1870-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

20.  The Racial Diversity Index calculates the likelihood that two people randomly chosen from a geographic area are from a different
racial or ethnic group
 The Diversity Index shows that Boston and most of its neighborhoods, though not all of its neighborhoods, were more diverse in
2010 than in 2000
 The Racial Diversity Index for the city as a whole increased from .64 to .66 between 2000 and 2010
20
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Dorchester
Harbor Islands
Boston
Mission Hill
Roslindale
Hyde Park
Roxbury
South End
Jamaica Plain
Allston
East Boston
West End
Bay Village
Fenway
Brighton
LMA
Downtown
West Roxbury
Charlestown
South Boston
Mattapan
Leather District
Chinatown
Back Bay
South Boston Waterfront
Beacon Hill
North End
Neighborhood Diversity Index (2000 - 2010)
2010 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
Based on the methodology “Mapping the USA’s diversity from 1960 to 2060” USA TODAY

21. RACIAL DIVERSITY
 Racial diversity by census tract increased
dramatically in most of Boston from 1970 to 2010
 In the maps, yellow represents census tracts with
low racial diversity index scores, while red
represents census tracts with high racial diversity
21
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

22. BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN
POPULATION
 In 1970, the Black/African American
population was largely concentrated in the
neighborhoods of Roxbury and parts of
Dorchester and Mattapan (tracts colored
red in the maps at right)
 In 2010 that concentration was still evident,
although the Black/African American
population had increased throughout
Dorchester, Mattapan, and Hyde Park
22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

23. HISPANIC POPULATION
23
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 The Hispanic population has grown
significantly since 1970 with large
communities with large communities
forming in East Boston and Jamaica Plain
(colored red in maps at right)

24. 24
34%
35% 35%
36%
30%
18%
13%
16%
20%
26%
27%
28%
17%
21%
24%
25% 25%
30%
32%
28%
25%
20%
15%
11%
9% 9%
10%
12%
15%
16%
10%
13%
14%
13%
15%
14%
15%
13%
12%
9%
7%
5% 5%
6%
8%
11%
13% 13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Proportion of Population that is Foreign-Born (1850-2015)
Boston Massachusetts United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1850-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 Restrictive immigration policies 1925-1970 reduced the foreign born population and limited Boston’s population growth
 Since 1970, Boston foreign-born share has increased from 13% to 28%

25. FOREIGN BORN
POPULATION
 The percentage of the population that is foreign-
born has increased in most census tracts in
Boston since 1970
 In the maps at right, yellow census tracts have a
foreign-born population of less than 10%
 In the red census tracts, foreign-born residents
make up more than 60% of the population
25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

26. 26
0.6%
4.8% 3.3%
9.0% 10.1% 12.4%
25.2%
32.3%
45.1%
49.3% 50.3% 49.3%
8.0%
16.0%
21.0%
24.2%
25.3% 25.6%
63.6%
37.9%
24.2%
17.5% 14.3% 12.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Region of Origin of Boston's Immigrants
Africa Americas Asia Europe
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 In 1970, a majority of Boston’s immigrants had come from Europe
 Since then, increasing shares of immigrants have come from the Americas, Asia, and Africa

27. 27
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
2.1%
2.1%
3.7%
4.0%
5.2%
5.5%
5.6%
8.2%
10.5%
12.5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Guatemala
India
Jamaica
Colombia
Vietnam
El Salvador
Cape Verde
Haiti
Dominican Republic
China
Percent of Foreign-born Population
Top Ten Countries of Origin for Boston’s Foreign Born - 2015
 Boston’s foreign-born population comes from more than 100 countries. The largest foreign born populations in Boston are
Chinese, Dominican, and Haitian

28. 28
32.9
28.1
28.9
30.4
31.1 30.8
32.1
29.5
31.2
33.4
36.5
39.1
29.5 30.0
32.9
35.3
30.8
31.8
37.2
37.8
39.1 39.4
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Median Age in Boston/MA/US (1950-2015)
Boston Massachusetts U.S.
2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 The median age in Massachusetts and the U.S. has risen significantly since 1970
 While the median age in Boston has also risen, the large young adult population keeps Boston’s median
age below that of Massachusetts or the U.S.

29. 29
50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 Plus
2015 ACS
50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
Female Male
1980
50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
2010
 Boston has a large young adult population, as shown in the population pyramids below.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis

30.  Households are made up of one or more persons (unrelated individuals or families) sharing a housing unit
 Boston’s average household size fell significantly from 3.4 in 1950 to 2.4 in 1980 and remained steady through 2010
 Since 1950, Boston’s average household size has been lower than that of the U.S.
30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2000 U.S. Decennial Census, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
3.4
3.0
2.8
2.4 2.4
2.3 2.3
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.7
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Average Household Size (1950-2015)
Boston USA ACS Estimates
2015

31. 31
2.86
2.84
2.83
2.82
2.66
2.51
2.43
2.39
2.34
2.29
2.18
2.11
2.06
1.93
1.88
1.77
1.69
1.67
1.63
1.62
1.56
1.55
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Dorchester
Mattapan
East Boston
Hyde Park
Roslindale
Roxbury
Mission Hill
Jamaica Plain
West Roxbury
Allston
South Boston
Charlestown
Brighton
South End
South Boston Waterfront
Downtown
North End
Beacon Hill
Back Bay
Fenway
Longwood
West End
Average Household Size by Neighborhood (2013)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 Boston’s neighborhoods vary by average household size. In 2013, Dorchester, Mattapan, East Boston and Hyde Park
had the highest average household sizes, while Back Bay, Fenway, Longwood and the West End had the lowest

32. 32
 The share of Boston’s population that is single, never-married, has been rising from 33.1% in 1950 to 56.4% in 2010 –
considerably higher than the national share
 The percentage of Boston’s population that is married has been falling proportionately, from 55.4% in 1950 to 31.9% in 2010
Note: Age 14+ for 1950-1970; Age 15+ for 1980-2010. Separated is included in married for 1950, 2000, & 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Decennial Census 1950-2000, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis.
33.1% 33.5%
39.5%
47.2%
50.9%
50.5%
56.4%
56.6%
55.4% 51.2% 43.4%
33.9%
31.7% 36.6%
31.9% 31.4%
11.5% 15.3% 17.1% 18.9% 17.4%
12.9% 11.7% 12.0%
23.1% 22.1%
25.4% 26.3% 26.9% 27.1%
31.0% 33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
%of14/15+Population
Marital Status of Boston's Population (1950-2013)
Boston Single Boston Married Boston Widowed or Divorced U.S. Single

33. 33
 More people are living alone, and the average household size declined between 1960 and 1980
 Only 30.4% of households have more than 2 people in 2015, down from 49.2% in 1960
Note: The slides on household and family composition begin in the year of first available data.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1960-2010 U.S. Decennial Census; 2015American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
23.9%
28.9%
36.8% 35.5% 37.1% 37.7% 37.3%
26.8%
28.7%
29.0% 29.5% 29.6% 31.1% 32.2%
17.3%
15.1%
13.9% 14.9% 14.3%
14.9% 14.9%
13.4%
10.9%
9.3% 10.3% 9.8%
9.8% 9.0%
8.9% 6.9%
5.4% 5.4% 5.3%
4.1% 4.0%9.6% 9.5% 5.6% 4.5% 3.9%
2.3% 2.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
OccupiedHousingUnits
Boston Households by Number of People (1960-2015)
Total Occupied Units 1 person in unit 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons 5 persons 6 or more persons

34. 34
 A family or family household consists of a householder living with one or more other people related to the householder by birth,
marriage, or adoption
 The percentage of Boston households that are families has been consistently lower than the national average
 This trend corresponds with the falling percentage of Boston residents who are married, and the falling share of children as a
percentage of the population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
64.8%
53.3%
50.7%
48.1%
46.0%
77.4%
67.7%
64.0%
61.5%
60.0%
80.3%
73.2%
70.2%
68.1%
66.8%
47.2%
60.8%
66.4%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%ofTotalHouseholds
Family Households (1970-2013)
Boston Greater Boston area United States ACS Estimates
2013

35. 35
 The percentage of family households that were headed by a married couple fell from 1970 to 1990. Since 1990, a little over half of
family households have included a married couple
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
72.5%
63.0%
58.6% 58.6% 55.5% 56.4%
4.9%
6.6%
8.3% 8.3%
9.0% 10.1%
22.6%
30.4% 33.1% 33.1% 35.5% 33.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Family Households by Family Type ( 1970-2015)
Married Unmarried Male Householder Unmarried Female Householder

36. 36
 The percentage of Boston households that include at least one person under age 18 has been falling and remains below national and
regional levels
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
31.6%
27.0%
24.8% 25.6%
22.9%
41.5%
33.0%
29.1%
30.7% 30.3%
44.1%
37.9%
33.6%
36.0%
33.5%
23.6%
29.8%
32.9%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Households with Children under 18 (1970-2013)
Boston MAPC Region United States ACS Estimates
2013

37. 37
 Boston has a smaller percentage of households with a person over age 65 than either the Greater Boston region or the nation
 In 2013, 38.8% of Boston residents 65 and over lived in a single-person household
 52.7% of Boston seniors lived in family households in 2013 and 8.0% of them lived with a son or daughter
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
18.9% 19.0% 19.6%
24.1% 23.6%
25.2%
23.4% 24.0%
25.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2010 2013
%ofallhouseholds
Households with person over age 65
Boston Greater Boston region United States

38. BOSTON'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 – 2030
2030
PROJECTION
S

39. 39
667,137
617,594
589,141
574,823
562,994
641,071
697,197
801,444
770,816781,188
748,060
670,585
560,892
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Boston's Population (1900-2015)
Driven by immigration & increasing student
population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis
2015
Driven by annexation of land, immigration, & natural
change: births-deaths
Driven by lower international
migration and out-migration of
families (suburbanization)

40. 401930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis
50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
0-4 Years
5-9 Years
10-14 Years
15-19 Years
20-24 Years
25-29 Years
30-34 Years
35-39 Years
40-44 Years
45-49 Years
50-54 Years
55-59 Years
60-64 Years
65-69 Years
70-75 Years
75-79 Years
80-84 Years
85 Years or older
50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
Female Male
1980
50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
2010
Boston’s Population by Age and Sex
1950

41. 41
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
Deaths
Natural Change Migration
Population
Base
Births
Domestic
In-
Migration
Projected
Population
Domestic
Out-
Migration
Net
International
Migration
= + - + - +

42. 42
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
0-4 Years
5-9 Years
10-14 Years
15-19 Years
20-24 Years
25-29 Years
30-34 Years
35-39 Years
40-44 Years
45-49 Years
50-54 Years
55-59 Years
60-64 Years
65-69 Years
70-75 Years
75-79 Years
80-84 Years
85 Years or older
Boston -2010 Decennial Census
Female Male
 Population Base: Boston’s
2010 population of 617,594
POPULATION BASE
Population
Base Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis

43. 43
2.3%
4.6%
6.2%
7.9%
5.7%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
2.8%
4.3%
8.9%
6.9%
1.9%
0.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
MaternalBirthRate
Mother’s Age at Birth
Boston’s Age-Specific Annual Birth Rates
2006 to 2009 Average 2010 to 2014 Average
 Boston has averaged 7,900 births a year since 2000
 Overall fertility has declined slightly and shifted to older mothers
BIRTHS
Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Births to Boston Residents, 2006-2014 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2014 1-year American Community Survey, 2010 Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
Population
Base
Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -

44. 44
16.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
less than
1
1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60- 64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94
One-yearDeathRate
Boston Gender Specific One-Year Death Rates by Age, 2010-2013
Male average 1-year Death Rate Female average 1-year Death Rate
DEATHS
Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Deaths 2010-2013 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2013 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 Boston deaths have been declining from an average of 4,496 a year from 2000 to 2002 to an average of 3,692 a year from 2010 to 2013
Population
Base
Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -

45. 45
NATURAL CHANGE IN POPULATION
Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Births and Deaths 2000-2013, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 Births outnumber deaths in Boston by about 3,500 to 4,000 a year
 In the absence of migration, Boston’s population would have grown by this amount through natural change
3,567 3,644 3,587 3,528
3,653
3,477
4,042 4,040 4,137
4,272 4,158
4,447
4,269
4,037
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BirthsminusDeaths
Natural Change in Boston's Population, 2000-2013
Population
Base
Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -

46. 46
 The BPDA migration methodology measures three types of migration
 Domestic in-migration: people who move to Boston from elsewhere in the United States
 Domestic in-migration rate is the percentage of the U.S. population outside of Boston that moves to Boston
 Domestic out-migration: people who move from Boston to elsewhere in the United States
 Domestic out-migration rate is the percentage of the Boston population that moves elsewhere in the United
States
 Net international migration: net movement of people to Boston from other countries and from Boston to other
countries
 Net international migration rate is the net percentage of Boston residents who moved internationally
Population
Base
Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -

47. 47
NET MIGRATION
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Survey, PUMS, BPDA Research Division Analysis
 From 2007 to 2014, Boston had a net gain on average of 2,376 people per year due to migration. This positive net migration is due
to the large influx of 17 to 24 year olds
-1,310
-413
9,046
2,873
-1,736
-2,404
-1,310 -1,101
-204 -199 -36 -224 -271 -186 -34 -12 -103
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0-4 5-16 17-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
AverageAnnualNetMigration
Age
Average Annual Net Migration 2007 to 2014
Population
Base
Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -

48. 48
 Natural change explains the U.S. population pyramid well: births replenish the 0-4 cohort and deaths gradually diminish the older cohorts
 However, migration is a more important factor in Boston’s population, creating a bulge in the young adult years and making projections
much more difficult
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, 2010, U.S. Decennial Census , BPDA Research Division Analysis
15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
0-4 Years
5-9 Years
10-14 Years
15-19 Years
20-24 Years
25-29 Years
30-34 Years
35-39 Years
40-44 Years
45-49 Years
50-54 Years
55-59 Years
60-64 Years
65-69 Years
70-75 Years
75-79 Years
80-84 Years
85 Years or older
United States - 2010 Decennial Census
Female Male
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
0-4 Years
5-9 Years
10-14 Years
15-19 Years
20-24 Years
25-29 Years
30-34 Years
35-39 Years
40-44 Years
45-49 Years
50-54 Years
55-59 Years
60-64 Years
65-69 Years
70-75 Years
75-79 Years
80-84 Years
85 Years or older
Boston - 2010 Decennial Census
Female Male
Domestic
Out-migration
Domestic
& International
In-migration
Domestic
Out-migration
Deaths
Births

49. United States
Average annual migration flows to and from
Boston (2007-2014):
 Domestic In-migration = 54,407
 Domestic Out-migration = 58,101
 Net International Migration = 6,070
Boston
Greater
Boston
-5,138Massachusetts
+ 350
+1,095
World
United States
MIGRATION FLOWS
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Surveys, BPDA Research Division Analysis

50. 50
BPDA population projection methodology yields a
projected Boston population of 723,500 in 2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2010-2030 Population Projections, BPDA Research Division Analysis
Population
Base
Births Deaths
Domestic
In-Migration
Domestic
Out-Migration
Net International
Migration
Projected
Population - + += + -
560,892
670,585
748,060
781,188
770,816
801,444
697,197
641,071
562,994
574,823
589,141
617,594617,594
676,000
723,500
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Decennial Census BPDA Projection

51. COMPARISON TO OTHER POPULATION PROJECTIONS
51
Source: Reardon, Tim & Hari, Meghna, “Metro Boston 2030 Population and Housing Demand Projections,” MAPC, 2014.
Renski, Henry & Strate, Susan “Long-Term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities,” UMDI, 2014.
BPDA Research Division Analysis
562,994
574,823
589,141
617,594
709,500
723,500
752,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Decennial Census MAPC Projection BPDA Projection Donahue Projection

52. 52
THE PROJECTIONS DATABASE AND MODEL CAN BE UPDATED
AS NEW DATA BECOME AVAILABLE
BPDA PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON MOST UP-TO-DATE DATA:
 2010 Census from U.S. Census Bureau (Population
Base)
 2010-2014 birth and death data from Massachusetts
Department of Public Health (Natural Change)
 2007-2014 migration data from U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community Surveys (Migration)