The document discusses development in the Nile River Basin and the complex hydro politics between countries that share the river. It notes that most of the Nile's water comes from Ethiopia but Egypt has claimed most rights to the river's water based on historical agreements. Efforts over the past few decades to develop the river basin through the Nile Basin Initiative have faced challenges in renegotiating water allocations and gaining agreement on a new cooperative framework from all countries. The future of cooperation over development and water rights in the basin remains uncertain.

1. [Potential] Regional Development in the Nile River Basin Ana Elisa Cascão Presentation to TWM Global Programme Stockholm – 2 nd June 2010

2. The River(s) Contribitution to Nile flows Annual (average) Flood period (average) Eastern Nile Basins (from Ethiopia) Blue Nile 59% 68% Tekezze/ Atbara 14% 5% Baro-Akobo/ Sobat 13% 22% Total Ethiopia 86% 96% Equatorial Nile Basin White Nile 14% 5%

3. The Hydrology The Topography Blue Nile source White Nile source Ethio-Sudan border Egypt’s territory

4. The land/waterscapes Ethiopia Sudan Egypt Uganda

6. The Water availability/utilisation 84 bcm / average Little utilisation Little utilisation How much water is Egypt and Sudan utilising?

7. The 1959 Agreement Current water utilisation of the Nile waters Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters ?

8. The Basin countries

9. EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA + Equatorial states Geography Geography Geography Material power Material power Material power Bargaining power Bargaining power Bargaining power Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Power asymmetries

10. The enduring conflict Control Contribution Utilisation Donwstream Upstream Allocation

11. Equitable utilisation Development Benefits- Sharing Towards Cooperation Donwstream Upstream

12. Hydropolitics Past Since mid-1990s (HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY COOPERATION: Development opportunities Basin-wide approach Investment projects Legal negotiations Donors support CONFLICT: Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments Securitisated hydropolitics

13. The cooperation process since 1999 1997-2007 2011!?

15. Nile Basin Initiative GOAL Benefit-Sharing Paradigm

16. NBI Operational Structure

17. NBI ‘philosophy’

18. NBI Programs

19. NBI Donors

20. NBI Time framework NBI, 2009

21. NBI: successes and failures SHARED VISION INVESTMENT PROJECTS

22. NBI: successes and failures GOVERNANCE

23. The legal negotiations  New Agreement  Renegotiation of volumetric allocations  Prior use  Acquired rights  Prior Notification  “ New water”  No-harm Principle River Basin Organisation  STATUS QUO  New Agreement  Renegotiation of volumetric allocations  New uses  Acquired rights  Prior Notification  Investment  Equitable and reasonable utilisation Principle  River Basin Organisation  STATUS QUO ? DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANS

24. 2007-2010: The deadlock NILE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT [...] Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State ." Egypt/Sudan proposal: “ (...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.” [...] No water allocations included in the agreement

25. 2010: The big challenge! POTENTIAL Collective bargaining power Challenge/Pressure Balance of power Changes in the status quo Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation) LIMITS Agreement without Egypt? Implementation challenges Egypt’s response Geopolitics Donors behaviour Access to investment

26. Meanwhile...

27. Meanwhile...

28. Meanwhile...

29. Meanwhile...

30. What next? Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Cascão 2009

31. Thanks! [email_address]