This is a case study analysis on the present pandemic "Coronavirus" and the facts and figures are as on date-25th may.2020.
I have made this case study which was is a semester examination project.Do check it out!
2. INTRODUCTION
THROUGHOUT HISTORY OF MANKIND, NOTHING HAS
KILLED MORE HUMAN BEINGS THAN AN INFECTIOUS
DISEASE. HUMANS, BEING THE APEX SPECIE WHO SITS ON
TOP OF THE ANIMAL KINGDOM HAVE FACED A LOT OF
DISASTERS WHICH HAVE POSED A SERIOUS THREAT TO ITS
EXISTENCE BUT THEY HAVE SURVIVED THROUGH IT ALL.
HOWEVER, PANDEMIC DISEASES HAVE SHOWN HOW
VULNERABLE WE REMAIN TO SUCH OUTBREAKS WHICH
HAVE DEVASTATED THE HUMANITY TO ITS ROCK
BOTTOM.
THE PHENOMENA OF PANDEMIC DISEASES HAVE BEEN
STRIKING THE HUMAN SPECIE SINCE A VERY LONG TIME
AND HAVE STRUCK IT TO ITS ROOTS.
BUT WHAT IS THIS WORD CALLED PANDEMIC?
A PANDEMIC IS THE WORLDWIDE SPREAD OF A NEW
DISEASE.
THERE IS ALSO A WORD KNOWN TO US WHICH IS
EPIDEMIC. LET US SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 2.
3. WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A PANDEMIC AND
AN EPIDEMIC?
AN EPIDEMIC IS AN OUTBREAK OF DISEASE THAT SPREADS
QUICKLY AND AFFECTS MANY INDIVIDUALS AT THE SAME TIME.
A PANDEMIC IS A KIND OF EPIDEMIC: ONE WHICH HAS SPREAD
ACROSS A WIDER GEOGRAPHIC RANGE THAN AN EPIDEMIC, AND
WHICH HAS AFFECTED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
POPULATION.
THE NOVEL CORONA VIRUS HAS TAKEN JUST A FEW MONTHS TO
MOP THE ENTIRE GLOBE IN SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
LET US TAKE A LOOK AT HOW PAST PANDEMICS HAVE
ANNIHILATED THE HUMAN GENERATIONS
THIS CUT OUT WAS PRESENTED VIA WASHINGTON POST.
HTTPS://WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM/GRAPHICS/2020/LOCAL/RETRO
POLIS/CORONAVIRUS-DEADLIEST-PANDEMICS/
4. FROM THE PLAGUE OF JUSTINIAN (30-50 MILLION
DEATHS) TO BLACK DEATH (75-200 MILLION DEATHS) TO
NEW WORLD SMALLPOX (25-55 MILLION DEATHS) TO THE
1918 FLU ( 50 MILLION DEATHS) TO HIV /AIDS ( 35
MILLION DEATHS) TO COVID19 (344,550 DEATHS).
THESE PANDEMIC SHOWS US THAT WE HUMANS ARE
HELPLESS AGAINST THEM UNTIL A VACCINE IS CREATED
FOR CURE.
SERIAL NO- 1
LET US BEGIN WITH LATEST PANDEMIC THAT HAS SHOOK
THE ENTIRE GLOBE- COVID-19.
A TYPE OF COMMON VIRUS THAT INFECTS HUMANS,
TYPICALLY LEADING TO AN UPPER RESPIRATORY
INFECTION (URI.) SEVEN DIFFERENT TYPES OF HUMAN
CORONAVIRUS HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED. MOST PEOPLE
WILL BE INFECTED WITH AT LEAST ONE TYPE OF
CORONAVIRUS IN THEIR LIFETIME
THE VIRUSES ARE SPREAD THROUGH THE AIR
BY COUGHING AND SNEEZING, CLOSE PERSONAL
CONTACT, TOUCHING AN OBJECT OR SURFACE
CONTAMINATED WITH THE VIRUS AND RARELY, BY FECAL
CONTAMINATION. THE ILLNESS CAUSED BY MOST
5. CORONAVIRUSES USUALLY LASTS A SHORT TIME AND IS
CHARACTERIZED BY RUNNY NOSE, SORE THROAT, FEELING
UNWELL, COUGH, AND FEVER.
TWO OF THE MOST WELL-KNOWN OF THE DEADLY TYPES ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SARS AND MERS. EACH OF THESE
DISEASES HAS CAUSED GLOBAL OUTBREAKS IN THE PAST. IN
DECEMBER 2019, ANOTHER VIRUS JOINED THESE DANGEROUS
COUSINS. SCIENTISTS ARE CALLING IT SARS-COV-2. THE
NAME REFLECTS THIS GERM‘S CLOSE SIMILARITY TO THE
ORIGINAL SARS CORONAVIRUS.
ORIGIN
A NOVEL STRAIN OF CORONA VIRUS SARS-COV-2 WAS FIRST
DETECTED IN DECEMBER 2019 IN WUHAN, A CITY IN CHINA‘S
HUBEI PROVINCE WITH A POPULATION OF 11 MILLION, AFTER
AN OUTBREAK OF PNEUMONIA WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS CAUSE.
COVID-19 IS THOUGHT TO HAVE ORIGINATED IN A SEAFOOD
MARKET WHERE WILDLIFE WAS SOLD ILLEGALLY.
SCIENTISTS HAVE POINTED TO EITHER BATS OR SNAKES AS
POSSIBLE SOURCES.
HOWEVER, RUMOUR ON SOCIAL MEDIA SUGGEST THAT THE
OUTBREAK WAS HUMAN-MADE.
SOME SAY THE VIRUS LEAKED FROM A CHINESE LAB STUDYING
CORONAVIRUSES. OTHERS SUGGEST THE VIRUS WAS
ENGINEERED TO SPREAD AMONG HUMANS WHICH WAS A DARK
6. MOTIVE OF CHINESE GOVT.
HOW DOES COVID-19 SPREAD?
COVID-19 SPREADS MAINLY BY DROPLETS PRODUCED AS A
RESULT OF COUGHING OR SNEEZING OF A COVID-19 INFECTED
PERSON. THIS CAN HAPPEN IN TWO WAYS-
DIRECT CLOSE CONTACT: ONE CAN GET THE INFECTION
BY BEING IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH COVID-19 PATIENT
(WITHIN 1MTR OF THE INFECTED PERSON), ESPECIALLY IF THEY
DO NOT COVER THEIR FACE WHEN COUGHING OR SNEEZING. Š
INDIRECT CONTACT: THE DROPLETS SURVIVE ON
SURFACES AND CLOTHES FOR MANY DAYS. THEREFORE,
TOUCHING ANY SUCH INFECTED SURFACE OR CLOTH AND THEN
TOUCHING ONE‘S MOUTH, NOSE OR EYES CAN TRANSMIT THE
DISEASE. THE INCUBATION PERIOD OF COVID 19 (TIME
BETWEEN GETTING THE INFECTION AND SHOWING SYMPTOMS)
IS 1 TO 14 DAYS. SOME PEOPLE WITH THE INFECTION, BUT
WITHOUT ANY SERIOUS SYMPTOMS CAN ALSO SPREAD THE
DISEASE.
THE STATISTICS OF ITS REPORTED CASES SHOWS MORE THAN 80 % OF
INFECTED HAD A MILD CASE OF DISEASE, WHILE AROUND 14 % OF
INFECTED EXPERIENCED A SEVERE ONE, SUFFERING FROM
BREATHLESSNESS AND PNEUMONIA. AND ABOUT 5 % ARE
CATEGORIZED AS CRITICAL DISEASE PATIENTS, THEIR SYMPTOMS
7. INCLUDE SEPTIC SHOCK, RESPIRATORY FAILURE, AND THE FAILURE OF
MORE THAN ONE ORGAN
MOST-AFFECTED COUNTRIES
USA-1.68 MILLION CASES
BRAZIL-365K CASES
RUSSIA-353K CASES
SPAIN-282K CASES
UK-259K CASES
ITALY-229K CASES
FRANCE-182K CASES
GERMANY-180K CASES
QUESTION-1: WRITE THE ORIGIN AND SPREADING
OF COVID-19 TO THE WORLD ELABORATELY.
COVID-19 HAS SPREAD IN ALL THE NATIONS, SENDING
BILLIONS OF PEOPLE INTO LOCKDOWN AS HEALTH SERVICES
STRUGGLE TO COPE WITH THIS PANDEMIC AT PRESENT. EVERY
ORGANIZATION IS TRYING TO INVENT A VACCINE FOR THIS
VIRUS UNDER GUIDANCE OF WHO.
8. IT ALL STARTED WHEN IN NOVEMBER 2002, THE FIRST
ATYPICAL PNEUMONIA CASE WAS REPORTED IN GUANGDONG,
CHINA. WHO OFFICE IN BEIJING RECEIVED INFORMATION
ABOUT A ‗STRANGE CONTAGIOUS DISEASE‘ THAT KILLED 100
PEOPLE. IN THOSE 3 MONTHS FROM NOVEMBER TO FEB, SARS
INFECTED ABOUT 8000 PEOPLE AND KILLED 774 PEOPLE
BEFORE ENDING IN JULY 2003.
17 YEARS LATER, ON 30TH DECEMBER 2019, LI WENLIANG, A
CHINESE OPHTHALMOLOGIST WHO WORKED AT WUHAN
CENTRAL HOSPITAL HAD CONFIRMED 7 CASES OF SARS. THE
MOST ASTONISHING FACT IS THAT PUBLIC SECURITY BUREAU
IN WUHAN CALLED HIM IN AND GOT HIM TO SIGN A
STATEMENT SAYING HE WAS LYING AND DISTURBING PUBLIC
ORDER.
AFTER THIS INCIDENT, LI TOOK THIS UPTO WEIBO(CHINESE
BLOGGING WEBSITE) AND STATED-
‘I STARTED HAVING COUGH SYMPTOMS ON 10 JANUARY, FEVER ON
11 JANUARY AND HOSPITALISATION ON 12 JANUARY’.
ON 23RD
JAN, WUHAN SHUT DOWN ITSELF AND REPORTED 700
POSITIVE COVID PATIENTS BUT THE TRUTH WAS NO ONE KNEW
ABOUT THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO GOT AFFECTED.
IN FEB, LI ISSUED HIS FINAL STATEMENT-
9. ‘TODAY THE NUCLEIC ACID TEST RESULT IS POSITIVE, THE DUST
HAS SETTLED AND THE DIAGNOSIS HAS FINALLY BEEN
CONFIRMED.’
WITHIN A WEEK, HE WAS REPORTED DEAD FALLING SICK DUE
TO COVID-19 OF WHICH HE WAS TRYING TO CREATE
AWARENESS ABOUT TO THE WHOLE WORLD BUT WAS
RESTRAINED FROM THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT.
THIS MARKED THE ORIGIN OF ONE OF THE MOST DEADLIEST
PANDEMIC WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
THE OUTBREAK WAS DECLARED A GLOBAL PANDEMIC BY THE
WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO) ON 11 MARCH.
10. LETS SEE HOW THE VIRUS PAVED ITS WAY ACROSS THE GLOBE
NOTE- RED DOTS DEPICT CONFIRMED CASES AND SHADED AREA
SHOWS NEW CASES IN THE REGION.
22 January
Daily cases 555 | Total cases 555
New cases in Thailand, Japan,
China, South Korea, Taiwan and
US
26 January
Daily cases 684 | Total cases
2,118
New cases in Australia and
Canada
31 January
Daily cases 1,693 | Total cases 9,927
New cases in Italy, Sweden, Russia
and United Kingdom
11. 19 February
Daily cases 503 | Total
cases 75,639
New cases in Iran
26 February
Daily cases 982 | Total cases
81,395
New cases in Pakistan, Brazil,
Georgia, Greece, North
Macedonia, Norway and Romania
3 March
Daily cases 2,534 | Total cases
92,840
New cases in Argentina, Chile,
Jordan and Ukraine
12. 9 March
Daily cases 3,766 | Total cases
113,561
New cases in Albania, Cyprus and
Brunei
13 March
Daily cases 16,850 | Total cases
145,193
New cases in Kazakhstan,
Ethiopia, Sudan, Guinea, Kenya
and Antigua and Barb.
22 March
Daily cases 31,431 | Total cases
335,955
New cases in Dominica, Grenada,
Mozambique and Syria
14. Confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Europe, Middle East and North
Africa
Data as on 23 May
15. India reported the first confirmed case of the coronavirus infection on 30
January 2020 in the state of Kerala. The affected had a travel history
from Wuhan, China. As of 23 May 2020, the Ministry of Health and
Family Welfare have confirmed a total of 125,101 cases, 51,784
recoveries (including 1 migration) and 3,720 deaths in the country.
India currently has the fourth largest number of confirmed cases in Asia
with number of cases breaching the 100,000 mark on 19 May 2020. The
highest single day surge in new cases was recorded on 22 May 2020,
when 6,088 cases were reported.
Map of the pandemic in India as of 24 May 2020
16. Serial no- 2
Table mentioning Growth/Spread of COVID-19 across the
world (10 nations which are badly affected) as on 25th
may
2020.
Country Confirmed Deaths Recovered
USA 1,689,581 99381 451,745
Brazil 365,213 22,746 149,911
Russia 353,427 3,633 118,798
Spain 282,852 28,752 196,958
UK 259,559 36,793 N/A
Italy 229,858 32,785 140,479
France 182,584 28,367 64,617
Germany 180,505 8,382 161,200
Turkey 156,827 4,340 118,694
India 141,228 4,057 58,727
17. Question-2: What are the top 10 nations badly affected with
COVID-19? Mention the reasons for spreading COVID-19.
The top 10 nations badly affected with covid-19 are as follows-
USA
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
SPAIN
UK
ITALY
FRANCE
GERMANY
TURKEY
INDIA
Covid-19 spreads majorly due to a close contact with a covid
positive patient via the droplets produced by a sneeze or cough
from that person. This can happen via 2 ways which are direct
close contact and indirect contact(objects).
18. Serial no-3
Finding Case Fatality Rate (Take last 8 weeks data, make
it week wise total and calculate fatality rate for each
week)
CFR Confirmed
Death
Its very important and also very difficult to calculate the
CFR of this covid-19 because the data is fluctuating
rapidly day by day.
WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
said that about 3.4% of people reported to have COVID-
19 around the world have died.
India's case fatality rate is relatively lower at 3.09%,
against the global 6.63% as of 20 May 2020.
let us calculate the CFR of India since the beginning of
covid -19 in the nation.
India reported its first coronavirus case on 30th
Jan, 2020
20. Question-3: What is the fatality rate of highly
affected top 10 nations in the world? Mention the
reasons for more fatality in these nations elaborately.
Case Fatality Rate = Deaths/Case confirmed
Following is the CFR of highly affected top 10
nations in the world as per 25th may, 2020.
USA - 99381/1689581 = 0.058
Brazil – 22746/365213 = 0.062
Russia – 3633/353427 = 0.010
Spain – 28752/282852 = 0.101
UK – 36793/259559 = 0.141
Italy – 32785/229858 = 0.142
France – 28367/182584 = 0.155
Germany – 8382/180505 = 0.046
Turkey – 4340/156827 = 0.027
India – 4057/141228 = 0.028
21. USA
The US now has the world's highest number of deaths from
Covid-19, with at 99381 losing their lives to the virus as of
now and 1689581 confirmed cases. The simple reason for
these much casualties is because of the failure of taking
necessary precautions beforehand by the Trump
administration. President Donald Trump has failed utterly.
The US still lacks even a basic plan for controlling the
epidemic and restarting the economy. The alarm bells were
ringing from late December onward and still trump failed
to put up a plan to tackle this pandemic head on and
ignored all the warning signs and gave false hopes the
citizens that everything is in control.
Medical supply shortages
Testing delays
22. Brazil
Brazil is the hardest-hit country in Latin America .Brazil overtook
Russia for the 2nd spot behind to US in world in COVID cases.
The South American country has now registered 365213 cases and
22746 deaths as of now. Though the experts say that the number
may be 15 times more due to under testing.
The surge came as the World Health Organization declared South
America "a new epicenter" of the pandemic.
The country‘s public hospital capacity is already strained
Brazil has everything for a quick spread of the disease-
poor healthcare
poor hygiene and sanitation
lack of medical equipments
Graves of people who died in the past 30 days fill a new section of the Nossa
Senhora Aparecida cemetery in Manaus, Brazil
23. RUSSIA
As the deadly coronavirus pandemic continues to spread
across the globe, Russia has gradually become the world's
3rd
most-infected country. There have
been 353427 cases of coronavirus infections reported
in Russia so far and 3633 deaths.
Experts say that one of the main cause for spike in cases in
Russia was due to late implementation of lockdown in the
nation as the virus had already taken over Moscow and
turned it into countries Hot spot.
Shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE)
equipment.
lack of specialists, placing healthcare workers under
enormous pressure to handle thousands of patients.
Scenes at a cremation ground inSaint Petersburg.
24. Spain
One of the most darkest moments in Spanish history has
happened when Spain overlooked what happened to Iran
and Italy and eventually due to negligence became a
hotspot at 4th
spot globally of coronavirus -282852, Deaths-
28752.
The main reason for this heavy rise in cases in Spain is
completely mundane.
Experts say large elderly population, social behavior and
weak healthcare system have contributed to high fatalities.
Poor manoeuvre to handle this pandemic by Spanish Govt.
A man wearing a protective face mask and a Spanish flag marches and
bangs saucepan lids as he attends a protest against the Spanish
government's handling of the coronavirus crisis in Madrid.
25. United Kingdom
Uk sits on 5th
position globally on most affected
nations by coronavirus.Cases-261184, Deaths-
36914.Uk‘s PM Boris Johnson got corona positive
though he is out of danger now.
Experts say the U.K.‘s strategy for combating
COVID-19 was muddled
Delays in purchasing essential equipment and tests.
Critical Shortages of medical supplies.
Abandonment of mass testing.
Pre-dug graves for COVID-19 deaths are seen in
Maker Cemeteryin Maker, England
26. Italy
Italy, a popular tourist destination, joined the list of
coronavirus-most affected countries with cases-230158,
Deaths-32877 and sits on 6th
position right now.
The country has the second-oldest population on earth
which implies weaker immune system and its youngsters
love to mingle with old aged people which is highly risky.
Expanding air travel with China.
Absence of wider measures.
Close proximity within the community, they are the people
who very physically affectionate people: Hugs and cheek-
kisses are common not just among family members but also
friends and even work colleagues.
Dense population with as compared to the countries area.
Empty restaurant tables are seen in St. Mark's Square , Venice, Italy
27. France
France currently is on the 7th
most affected countries from
coronavirus with cases-182584, deaths-28367.
Lack of Financial stability for health care/research purpose
leisure response towards the virus.
Closure of all public attractions in Paris.
28. Germany
Germany has about 180602 cases with 8395 deaths and is
on 8th
spot on most affected countries from coronavirus.
However, Germany still held up as an example of great
coronavirus management amongst all of the nations.
Germany has one of the most advanced medical facilities in
the world.
Early testing and a healthcare system that is well-run and
well-funded has made Germany an exception in the world.
The government has tried to cushion the blow with a range
of measures, including a 750-billion-euro ($822.23 billion)
stimulus package.
Signs in the Munich airport warn travelers about the new
coronavirus.
29. Turkey
Turkey has the highest acceleration rate for cases
@157814 with deaths of 4369 people in the nation
The reason because social mobility wasn't prevented.
Shortage of protective gear such as masks and gloves.
Late announcement of curfews ordered by
government.
Workers spray disinfectant at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul,
Turkey to prevent the spread of the coronavirus
30. India
According to official figures, there are about 144868 confirmed
cases and 4172 deaths in the nation.
The COVID-19 pandemic has put India‘s economic growth path
under scrutiny.
Lack of testing kits
India has just over took Iran for the 10th
position with 154
deaths in last 24 hrs and is expected to overtake Turkey too,
in another four days, if the current pace remains. However,
the case fatality rate in India, at 2.9%, is more half that of
Iran‘s, and of the global average of 6.3%.
Lack of proper Crisis communication Strategy. The
Indian media is just broadcasting news on the pandemic
without even knowing and studying the facts properly. The
government needs to think of media as an ally and use this
opportunity to create factual awareness about coronavirus
and remove fake misleading news.
Lack of Sufficient tests to be carried out in all the
areas of the nation. As of now we don‘t know the
actual number of corona virus positives because we
don‘t have the facility to carry out tests at a large
scale.
31. Recently the government decided to open up its liquor shops
in its states to compensate the loss incurred throughout the
pandemic. The next thing which we saw was hundreds of
people gathering in a line about 2km long in front of liquor
outlets. This just defied the most precautionary measure
which is social distancing.
It was also said that the states were earning about rs30000
crore and more from liquor.
32. The biggest blow from this virus was took by the
poor migrant labor community who got nowhere
to go in the midst of this lockdown.
They got stranded on highways without a roof
over their head and food to eat.
Thousands of migrant workers are waiting at Delhi's
Anand Vihar Bus Terminal to go to their respective
home.
To tackle the ongoing pandemic, Indian
Government has launched a package of 1.7
trillion rupee for the poor.
33. Serial no-4
Table mentioning age and gender wise affected with
COVID-19
Country
Confirmed Recovered Death
Male Female Male Female Male Female
Canada 45% 55% 47% 53%
Australia 51% 49% 57% 43%
IRAN 57% 43% 59% 41%
Spain 43% 57% 57% 43%
UK 46% 54% 59% 41%
ITALY 46% 54% 60% 40%
CHINA 51% 49% 64% 36%
Germany 48% 52% 56% 44%
34. CFR GENDER WISE – DEATH/CONFIRMED
Canada
Total cases-82892
Male death rate- 47% *82892=38959
Female death rate- 53%*82892=43932
Male confirmed rate- 45%*82892 =37301
Female confirmed rate- 55%*82892= 45590
CFR male = death/confirmed = 38959/37301=1.044
CFR Female = 43932/45590 = 0.963
Australia
Total cases-7076
CFR male = 4033/3608 = 1.117
CFR Female = 3042/3467 = 0.877
Spain
Total cases-282,852
CFR male = 161225/121626 = 1.32
CFR Female = 121626/161225 = 0.75
35. UK
Total cases-259,559
CFR male = 153139/116177 =1.31
CFR Female = 103549/136381 = 0.75
Italy
Total cases- 229,858
CFR male = 137914/105734 = 1.30
CFR Female = 91943/121123 = 0.75
China
Total cases- 82,974
CFR male = 53103/42316 = 1.25
CFR Female = 29870/40657 = 0.73
Germany
Total cases-180,328
CFR male = 100972/86547 = 1.16
CFR Female = 79335/93760 = 0.84
36. Question-4: What is the gender wise fatality rate
of highly affected top nations? Which gender
was most affected, explain the reasons
elaborately.
Several studies have shown that more men are dying from
COVID-19 than women.
Experts say part of the reason is women tend to have
stronger immune systems than men.
They add that men also tend to engage in more risky
behavior such as ignoring physical distancing, and they
don‘t take symptoms as seriously.
37. Experts say biology as well as behavior may be among the
reasons more men than women are developing COVID-19
and dying from the disease.
A study published on May 10 reported that men men have
higher concentrations of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2
(ACE2) in their blood than women.
Since ACE2 enables the coronavirus to infect healthy cells,
this may help to explain why men are more vulnerable to
COVID-19 than women, the researchers reported.
The immune system may also be a factor.
Males are culturally conditioned to think of themselves as
strong, Giorgianni told Healthline, but ―women are not the
‗weaker sex‘ when it comes to immunity.‖
Moreover, he noted, men have higher rates in 9 out of 10 of
the leading causes of death in the United States.
That means they‘re more likely to have preexisting
conditions that can make COVID-19 more dangerous.
Behaviors that impact lung health, such as smoking, also
may play a role in the disease‘s deadly impact on men.
Male behavior during the pandemic also could be
increasing their exposure to the novel coronavirus.
―It‘s possible that men are more at risk because they tend
to expose themselves more to larger crowds and social
exchanges, including things like handshaking and sporting
events,‖ Berger said.
38. Women made up 61 percent of confirmed infections in
South Korea. But then again, the majority fatalities were
male – with 54 percent of those who died from the virus
being men
India‘s Union Health Ministry on Monday, 6 April, said
that 76 percent of coronavirus patients in India are men
while 24 percent are women, among the 4,000-odd people
who have tested positive for the virus.
39. Of the over 100 deaths recorded, 73 percent of the deaths
due to virus have been reported in men, while 27 percent of
those have been in women. According to the ministry, 47
percent of the those infected are under the age of 40 while
34 percent of patients in India fall in the age group of 40 to
60. 19 percent of the patients are 60 years of age and above
– a possible reason that India‘s death rate is relatively low.
A similar pattern of fatality was observed during the SARS
outbreak in 2003 and the MERS outbreak, which were also
caused by coronavirus.
40. Serial no-5
Question-5: What is the position of hospitality industry in the
highly affected top 10 affected nations‘ Pre and Post COVID-
19?
The impact of the novel coronavirus on worldwide hospitality
sector is nothing short of severe.Governments across the world
have sealed international border and cancelled all domestic and
international modes of transport in their respective nations.
Together this as whole is bound to bring an unmatched phase in
the hospitality sector of the globe.
Adding to the misery, in the days to come it is going to be
nothing but fear to travel which only means that the tourism and
hospitality and aviation business is bound to feel the heat
because they are interdependent on each other
Many experts worldwide have admitted that the coronavirus
pandemic is the most challenging crisis the world has faced
since the second world war.
The industry has already faced mass-scale cancellations for
travel bookings and hotel accommodations and this wont stop
for a while in the coming days.
Hotels will lose $215.5 billion in sales
Global hotel industry total retail value- 600.459 bn us$
Airlines are projected to lose the most at $218 billion
41. The coronavirus outbreak is likely to cause $1 trillion in losses for the global
tourism industry as well as around 50 million job cuts,
USA
Waitresses, hotel housekeepers and casino dealers are among the
more than 15 million hospitality jobs in U.S. cities. Already
thousands of these employees are getting fired daily by the
companies.
The U.S. hotel industry reported unprecedented lows during
April 2020.
In a year-over-year comparison with April 2019, the industry
recorded the following:
Occupancy: -63.9% to 24.5%
Average daily rate (ADR): -44.4% to US$73.23
Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -79.9% to
US$17.93
The absolute occupancy and RevPAR levels were the
lowest for any month on record in the U.S., while the ADR
value was the lowest since December 1997
US hotel industry was responsible for 1 in 25 jobs in
the US in 2018
42. In 2018, the revenue of the hotel industry in the U.S.
reached 218 billion U.S. dollars.
Economic impact of COVID-19 on hospitality:
the US economy will lose $84 billion by end of
May
The U.S. leisure and hospitality industry in April lost 7.7
million jobs, a 47 percent drop, and was the worst-hit sector
among non-farm payrolls for the second month in a row, according
to the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly report out Friday.
The bureau
stated that
restaurants
43. and bars lost 5.5 million jobs in April, or 71 percent of the total
decline in leisure and hospitality employment.
Brazil
UBS estimated on Wednesday that Brazil's GDP will
expand by just 0.5% in 2020 because of the pandemic. Last
week, they had forecast Brazil‘s GDP growth to come in at
1.3%, much lower than their initial forecast of 2.1%.
China, Europe and the U.S. are Brazil‘s largest export
markets. Brazil has a solid domestic consumer market, but
44. fears of the pandemic hitting there, with doubt that the
following years may be in recession and thus wont attract
any investor or even the Brazilians for that matter of fact.
Since the COVID-19 outbreak, financial conditions have
deteriorated sharply.
In São Paulo state, which represents 32% of the country's
economy and 22% of its population, most schools and
universities have been closed, as have most cultural, travel
and leisure activities. The nation‘s travel industry has
basically been put in time out.
Their current second quarter 2020 forecast is -4.4%
contraction quarter over quarter. It was -1.3% a few weeks
ago.
Rio de Janeiro‘s stately Copacabana Palace hotel, among
the Brazilian city‘s few five-star hotels, closed its doors for
the first time since its inauguration 96 years ago as a result
of the coronavirus
pandemic.
45. The contribution of the tourism sector to Brazil's GDP
in 2020 was estimated to decrease 38.9 percent in
relation to the previous year. In Brazilian reals, this
could mean a decline from the recorded 270.8 billion
in 2019 (around 51.5 million U.S. dollars based on
April 15, 2020 exchange rates) to 165.5 billion
(around 31.5 million U.S. dollars) by the end of 2020.
46. Russia
Russia has gone into tourism lockdown to combat
coronavirus, including closing state-run recreational
areas and hotels and halting all international flights.
But the country‘s other problem is that a majority of
its residents do not believe government figures, which
show the number of coronavirus cases within Russia
has only just surpassed 1,000.
Russia ordered its vast network of state-run hotels,
resorts and recreational facilities to shut down from
March 28 until June 1, as its number of confirmed
coronavirus cases rose past 1,000.
President Vladimir Putin has declared next week a
non-working week, and Moscow, the country‘s worst-
affected area, will this weekend close all cafes,
restaurants and shops apart from those selling food
and medicine, until April 5.
47. In February, Russian airlines lost 1.7 billion rubles ($22.6
million) owing to suspension of flights to China
It estimated at the time that the Russian Airlines could
sustain major losses and even bankruptcy.
Russia's flagship airline Aeroflot said Monday it was under
"enormous financial pressure" and suggested that its staff
take vacation days.
The Ritz Carlton, Moscow
48. Spain
Even before Spain went into a strict lockdown, the
hotel and tourism sector had already been through a
lot.
First the World Mobile Congress was cancelled,
depriving the city of the estimated €500m (£460m)
that the delegates would usually spend. During the
four-day event it is virtually impossible to get a bed or
a restaurant reservation.
Spain, the pandemic has led to the cancellation of the
famous Holy Week parades across Andalucía and the
abandoning of the festival of Las Fallas in Valencia.
The Spanish government approved a range of
measures to support the tourism sector, which include
a €400m, state-guaranteed credit line for the transport,
tourism and hospitality industries.
Tourism accounts for over 12% of Spain‘s economic
output. Even with borders reopening in late June, the
industry‘s revenues will fall by 93 to 124 billion euros
($100 to $134 billion).
49. Due to the crisis of the coronavirus COVID-19, in March
2020 the Spanish hotel chain Meliá Hotels International
decided to temporarily close 45 of its hotels in Spain.
Exceltur, an industry association, estimates that in this case,
the Spanish tourist sector would forfeit some 80 per cent of
its 2019 income more than €120bn.
In the case of the aviation industry,about 750 thousand
professionals could potentially lose their jobs. In addition,
it is estimated that the revenues of this sector will decrease
by approximately 11 billion euros due to a decrease in
traffic of around 100 million passengers.
50. UK
Sales in restaurants and bars in London were down 7%
in the past week according to trade body UK
Hospitality.
100 Billion Euros is said to be the worth of Uk
hospitality sector.
―There has been a significant drop in casual trade and
footfall in city centres,‖ said Kate Nicholls, chief
executive of UK Hospitality. She, said bookings for
hotels and big events were down by 50%.
P&O Ferries transport a good amount of people and
goods in and out of the Uk. But due to the lack of
passengers and goods the company has to stop its
operations and has told the BBC that the company
needs £257m to keep going.
Meanwhile, several airlines, including British Airways
and Virgin Atlantic, have suspended flights to and
from mainland Chinawhich has taken a heavy toll on
the company.
Apart from the United States, China is the UK‘s
largest trading partner outside of the European Union.
According to HMRC trade data, China accounted for
51. 6.4% of total UKexports in 2019, and 8.6% of total
imports and now due to this pandemic, the financial
circulation has started to block.
Italy
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Hotel Industry
in Italy can not the same with any other country.
189.1 billion is the net worth of Italian tourism
industry.
Italian tourism is expecting the catastrophic year
2020 due to the coronavirus crisis, and the
industry estimates the possible losses at 120
billion EUR. Until now, the industry has
provided jobs to 4.2 million people and
represented 13% of the GDP.
Italian tourism makes up 12-13% of the country‘s
GDP.
On March 22, 2020, due to the coronavirus
outbreak, passenger traffic at Italian airports
decreased by 98 percent compared to the same
day in 2019.
Italy saw a 22% drop in flights coinciding with
the announcement of a national lockdown on
March 9, 2020.
52. Up to 90 percent of hotel and travel agency
bookings for March cancelled in Rome and up to
80 percent in Sicily.
53. France
Tourism in France directly contributed 79.8 billion euros to
gross domestic product, 30% of which comes from
international visitors and 70% from
domestic tourism spending. The total contribution of travel
and tourism represents 9.7% of GDP and supports 2.9
million jobs (10.9% of employment) in the country.
France is one of the most visited countries in the world, and
tourism accounts for nearly 8% of its GDP.
Tourism Revenues in France averaged 3881.75 EUR
Million from 2008 until 2020, reaching an all time high of
7921 EUR Million in July of 2019.
France has seen a 30% to 40% fall in tourists following the
coronavirus outbreak
France announced measures worth 18 billion euros (15.9
billion pounds) to support its tourism sector.
54. "Tourism is facing what is probably its worst challenge in
modern history," Prime Minister Edouard Philippe told a
news conference. "Because this is one of the crown jewels
of the French economy, rescuing it is a national priority."
The prime minister said that with 95 percent of hotels
closed, the government's priority was to avoid bankruptcies
and job cuts.
55. Germany
This statistic shows the revenue of
the restaurant and hotel
industry in Germany from 2009 to 2018. In
2018, the revenue amounted to almost
90 billion euros.
Domestic and international travel
and tourism combined directly to contribute over
EUR43. 2 billion to the German GDP. Including
indirect and induced impacts,
the industry contributes 4.5% of German GDP
and supports 2 million jobs (4.8% of total
employment).
Germany only relies on 18 percent of its tourism
to come from international countries, according
to STR.
Since 1 March 2020, hotel occupancy in
Germany has decreased by more than 36%
compared to the previous year, the hotel industry
56. in particular is struggling with dramatic declines
in sales.
According to a survey conducted in
Germany in March 2020, 45 percent of hotel
and hospitality businesses have declared
revenue losses between 10,000 to 50,000
euros.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak of
2020 in Germany has hit the hotel and
hospitality industries particularly hard.
57. German airline group Lufthansa on Tuesday said
it was shutting down its low-cost German wings
unit and getting rid of dozens of planes to survive
the impact of the coronavirus on its business.
Turkey
Turkey enjoyed an all-time high in 2019 with more
than 45 million foreign visitors, but its tourism
industry is bracing for a heavy hit during the
upcoming travel season due to the novel coronavirus,
which brought along waves of travel restrictions and
cancellations.
58. The statistical data revealed that turkey generated
more than USD 1 billion from the hospitality
industry. The country has more than 900 hotels
that are providing more than 1.7 lakh rooms
across the country.
Turkish tourism revenues hit $34.5 billion in
2019, a new record high, the country's statistical
authority said Friday. The figure jumped 17% last
year, up from $29.5 billion in 2018.
National flag carrier Turkish Airlines recently
said ticket cancellations were up 50% since mid-
January.
Tourists visiting the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul‘s
historic Sultanahmet district have already fallen
50% due to COVID-19.
59. INDIA
The market size of hotel industry in India(including
unorganized market) is estimated at $22 Billion in
2019, growing at 8.6% till 2025. The share of
organized sector is expected to increase from 32% in
2019 to 37% in 2025.
The Tourism and Hospitality industry is one of the
largest service industries in India.
India‘s ranking in the Travel and Tourism Competitive
Index (TTCI) of World Economic Forum is at 34th in
2019.
By 2028, Tourism & Hospitality is forecasted to earn
$50.9 bn as visitor exports compared to $28.9 bn
earned in 2018.
The World Travel and Tourism Council calculated
that tourism generated ₹16.91 lakh
crore (US$240 billion) or 9.2% of India's GDP in
2018 and supported 42.673 million jobs, 8.1% of its
total employment.
60. The average occupancy rate at the group's hotels has
fallen by 90 percent.
The cascading effect of the coronavirus will cost the
Indian hospitality industry to loose about ₹620 crore.
The hotel chain and standalone hotel segment is staring
at losses over ₹130-155 crore, whereas the alternate
accommodation segment is likely to make losses of
over ₹420-470 crore.
"The impact is disastrous. The hotels are businesses which are
very capital intensive and also have very high fixed costs,"
Lemon Tree Hotels Chairman and MD Patanjali G Keswani said.
61. The Aviation sector in India currently contributes $72
bn to GDP.
Indian aviation industry could face Rs 24k crore
revenue loss
Hotel industry revenue likely to fall by Rs 90k cr in
2020 due to COVID-19.
62. Serial no-6
Table mentioning the effect on hospitality industry in the top 10
affected nations due to COVID-19.
Country Total turnover of
hospitality
industry
Share of
Hospitality
industry in GDP
USA US$51,282m 7.8%
Brazil US$8,958m 8.1%
Russia US$3,664mn 4.8%
Spain US$3,691m 14.6%
UK US$11,101m 11%
Italy US$4,902m 13.2%
France US$5,742m 10%
Germany US$9,625m 8.6 %
Turkey US$2,835m 12.1 %
India US$4,022m 9.2%
63. Question-6: What is the share of hospitality industry in the GDP
of the badly affected top 10 nations? Give a detailed analysis on
it.
USA hospitality industry contributes about 7.8% in the
GDP of its economy. Total contribution by travel and
tourism sector to India's GDP is expected to increase from
Rs 15,24,000 crore (US$ 234.03 billion) in 2017 to Rs
32,05,000 crore (US$ 492.21 billion) in 2028. Total earning
from the sector in India stood at US$ 28.6 billion in 2018
and is targeted to reach US$ 50 billion by 2022.
Brazil hospitality industry contributes about 8.1% in the
GDP of its economy. With a gross domestic product of
$2.26 trillion, Brazil is the world‘s ninth-largest economy
and the largest economy in Latin America.
Russia Hospitality Industry accounts for 4.8% in the GDP
of its economy. The Russian Ministry of Economic
Development has laid out a roadmap for developing a
strategy for the tourism industry over the next six years,
which proposes up to 100 billion rubles ($1.53 billion) in
funding until 2024.
Spain Hospitality Industry accounts for 14.6% in the GDP
of its economy. The contribution of tourism reached
147,946 million euros in 2018, representing 12.3%
64. of GDP. The branches concerning tourism generated 2.62
million jobs, 12.7% of the total employment.
UK Hospitality Industry accounts for 11% in the GDP of
its economy. n a September 2015 report for the British
Hospitality Association (BHA), the UK industry paid around
£41bn in tax; around half of this is VAT.
The UK tourist industry is the 8th largest touris destination
in the world. Visit Britainis responsible for tourists to the
UK. In 2014 there were around 30m overseas visitors to the
UK.It is not one of the larger industries, by GDP, in the
UK.
Italy Hospitality Industry accounts for 13.2% in
the GDP of its economy.
The contribution of tourism to the Italian
economy has been constantly growing and it is
predicted to reach roughly 268 billion euros in
2028.
France Hospitality Industry accounts for 10% in
the GDP of its economy. The travel and
tourism industry contributed to
the French Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
total with approximately 204.3 billion euros in
65. 2017. The source predicted that
this contribution will increase in the coming ten
years, reaching an expected total of around 248.1
billion euros in 2028.
Germany Hospitality Industry accounts for 8.6
% in the GDP of its economy. 2 billion to
the German GDP. Including indirect and
induced impacts, the industry contributes 4.5%
of German GDP and supports 2 million jobs
(4.8% of total employment).
Turkey Hospitality Industry accounts for 12.1 %
in the GDP of its economy. Tourism Sector
Contribution to Turkey's
GDP. Turkey generated $31.5 billion from the
tourism industry in 2015.
The sector's direct contribution to Turkey's
GDP was 6.2% in 2015. The
direct contribution of the industry to the
economy is expected to exceed $45 billion in
2023, according to the official figures.
India Hospitality Industry accounts for 12.1 % in
the GDP of its economy. A whooping share of
$460 bn contribution to India's GDP by 2028
66. According to The World Travel and Tourism
Council (WTTC), tourism generated $240 bn or
9.2% of India's GDP in 2018 and supported
42.67 mn jobs which is 8.1% of its total
employment.
67. Serial no-7
Question-7: Draw the detailed conclusions on the
above observations and suggest appropriate
measures to be taken to strengthen the hospitality
industry as well as economy of the above mentioned
badly affected nations.
The hotel industry in India, partially organized and majorly
unorganized caters to ~1.8 Billion domestic travelers and 9-9.5
Million foreign travelers. About 55% of organized hotels in
India belong to 3-star or higher categories
Travel and Hospitality being the largest
service industry in India was worth $234 bn in 2018 and
provides job to millions of people.
The corona virus will affect the entire hospitality industry at all
levels but not at the same capacity for a 5 star hotel and Dhaba.
A big hotel can sustain in these kind of hardships due to
financial stability but its will be battle of survival for small
restaurants to stay put long enough till the disease is gone for
good and they can start their respective businesses again.
Unfortunately this has been the biggest blow for the hospitality
industry in India because there are no people out on roads, no
tourist. Without this factor there is no way tourism can run.
68. From hotels to restaurants to public places to malls, everything
is closed in India as a safety precaution from covid-19.The
surprising part is everything in our surroundings including us
has started to adapt to this.
Overview of important steps that a hotel has to perform
Stay Up-to-date with Government policies and relief
Provide discount offers
Start 100% home delivery to the customer
Work on the management, policies, procedures, renovation
of the hotels / restaurants(Flexibility)
Ensure 100% maintenance of hygiene and sanitization ,
safety measure for the employees working.
Keep contact with your supplies and investors.
Ensure that you have urgent medical and assistance
supplies as and when required.
This time of pandemic is temporary in nature and shall pass
until a vaccine is invented to cure the disease.
Promote and emphasize general health and safety
techniques.
69. Since, Most of the operations are going to be Digital, it is
very important to develop a Anti virus software to prevent
from cyber attacks.
Lockdown doesn‘t mean that it‘s a day off for the hotels.
This might the best time to innovate and redefine the hotel.
There is always a scope for improvement. All sorts of long
due repairs can be completed, the hotel pool can be cleaned
thoroughly, the whole ventilation system can be cleaned, all
the kitchen items including from the chimney to utensils to
machines to slabs/ utensils, etc can be cleaned. Like this
there are many activities that can be performed daily
instead of doing nothing and waiting for the end of this
pandemic.
Those restaurants who do not PMS/RMS(Property
Management System/Revenue Management System) can
equip themselves with the technology and can interact with
their customers online without can physical interaction.
70. The shock to the global economy from COVID-19 has been
both faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial
crisis (GFC) and even the Great Depression. In those two
previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50% or more,
credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed,
unemployment rates soared above 10%, and GDP contracted
at an annualized rate of 10% or more. But all of this took
around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly
dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have
materialized in three weeks.
71. Macroeconomic and financial outcomes of the coronavirus
have materialized in just three weeks, in comparison to the
three years this took for the 2008 financial crisis.
Markets are down 35%, credit markets have seized up, and
credit spreads have spiked to 2008 levels.
Not even during the Great Depression and World War II
did the bulk of economic activity literally shut down, as it
has in China, the United States, and Europe today.
In order to save the economies, The govt need play the role
of barrier between getting sucked up into recession and
ploughing back itself in state of balance.
India has launched Coronavirus relief package worth Rs 1.7
lakh crore package to deal with impact of deadly virus. The
benefits of the economic package will be released through
direct cash t/f and food security measures aimed at giving
relief to millions of poor
United States President Donald Trump o signed a massive
$2.2 trillion economic rescue bill to help lift the economy
and address the coronavirus pandemic.
UN released US$15 million to help vulnerable countries
battle the spread of the coronavirus.
72. These measures are intended to provide greater security for
those affected by the pandemic by limiting the spread of the
virus, combating the effects on businesses and jobs and
providing financial security and transition opportunities for
those who become unemployed. They are also intended to
create the conditions for recovery after the crisis.
We have adjusted our lives according to this pandemic.
In the past few months, individual lives have changed
almost across the globe due to the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic.From maintaining social distancing and adopting
73. personal hygiene to using social media for circulating
serious and authentic news about the novel coronavirus,
people have started following several practices. Some of
these practices will become part of life even after the
pandemic ends, says Rajya Sabha leader of All India
Trinamool Congress Derek O‘Brien.
Coronavirus has also made a significant change On the
nature itself.
Empty Streets
We can see wild animals moving freely on roads.
Lockdown measures have brought wildlife into cities
around the world .
Cleaner air, There has been so much improvement in
the air quality in all the nations because there has been
a huge drop in daily commute by motor vehicles.
74. CITY SOUNDSCAPES ARE CHANGING
With so many people staying home—and public-transit agencies
cutting service as a result—there‘s significantly less noise from
cars, buses, trains, and other transportation. Its been a lot
quieter.
The virus has taught us that we as a species can change real fast,
if nudged sufficiently. We have learnt that as communities and
as individuals, we change best when we are affected as
individuals, when our sense of freedom and our quality of life is
on stake.
