How Competitive and Market Intelligence will Shape Business Strategy in the Next 20 Years

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The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
How Market and Competitive
Intelligence will Shape
Business Strategy in the
Next 20 Years
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 4 February 2015
~ featuring ~
Derek JohnsonArik Johnson

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After stepping aside as CEO in late 2009, today Arik serves as Managing
Director and lead architect at Aurora's R&D lab, think tank and
intelligence policy institute, the Centers for Organizational
Reconnaissance (COR). Arik directs hypothesis development on
seemingly intractable intelligence problems and works with organizations
of all kinds to develop a performance-driven organizational
reconnaissance apparatus to monitor, detect, interpret and anticipate
changes in the business environment that could help them outperform
their peers.
Email: Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-
world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
Arik Johnson

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Questions, Commentary & Content

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4
STOCHASM
The difference between
what you think you know and
what you actually know.
Intelligence lives in this chasm, creating new knowledge
AND
disputing false assumptions.

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Strategy should be a
Response to Intelligence
Not the other way around…

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U.S. Intelligence Community
Failed to Evolve
Unexpected new threats from
non-traditional enemies like
al Qaeda emerged on the
geopolitical stage in the
vacuum of America's return
to international economic,
political and cultural
hegemony after the end of
the Cold War.

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Three Key Business Trends Driving Business Strategy Evolution
Human Capital & Enterprise Collaboration
Everyone in the Firm becomes a Virtual Member of the
Intelligence Apparatus, Better Engagement by Rank & File,
Shared Visibility of Issues & Actions
Corporate Governance & Risk Oversight
Board-level Priority Ensuring Reliability of Management’s
Earnings Forecast & Assessing Risks to Status Quo
Business Model Disruption & Value Innovation
Predicting the Outcome of Competitive Battles by
Anticipating Changes in Product/Strategy Dynamics

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Managers caught in this kind of competition almost
universally say they dislike it and wish they could find
a better alternative. They often know instinctively
that innovation is the only way they can break free
from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to
begin.
Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne
Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat
especially when markets are flat or growing
slowly.

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Knowing Why They Buy
“Companies may know a
good deal about their
customers. They know
nothing, as a rule, about their
non-customers -- the people
who should be their
customers but buy from
someone else. Why do they
do that? And yet it is the non-
customer where important
changes always start first.”
Look Beyond the Current Business

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Success Breeds Complacency
“It is a classic conundrum for business
titans: How much money and attention
should be focused on a new, but growing,
operation that is far less profitable than the
core business?”
- Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma

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Customers “Hire” Products to Do
“Jobs” for Them
Concentrate Less on
What Customers “Want” and
More on What Customers “Need”

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Disruptive Technology

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Disruptive Innovation Strategy
Sustaining Innovations
Better Products Brought to
Established Markets
Low-End Disruptions
Target Overshot Customers with a
Lower Cost Business Model
New-Market Disruption
Compete Against Nonconsumption
Difference
Performance
Measure
Time
Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts
Performance

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Customer Demand & Signals of Change
1. Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics,
etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation
2. Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining
Innovations
3. Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting
Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence
of Rules
4. Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth
Established Companies almost always
Lose to Disruptive Innovators

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Reconnaissance Roles in Value Chain of Every Customer Offer
Pricing
Buy, Build
or Partner
Operational
Metrics
Business
Model & Case
Sales
Process
Thought
Leaders
Market
Requirements
Market
Sizing
Marketing
Plan
Product
Roadmap
Awareness
Bldg. Plan
Market
Research
Market
Problems
Distinctive
Competence
Product
Performance
Customer
Acquisition
Positioning
Customer
Retention
Launch
Plan
Product
Contract
Innovation
Market
Messaging
Channel
Training
Win/Loss
Analysis
Competitive
Battle Cards
Event
Support
Collateral &
Sales Tools
Presentations
& Demos
White
Papers
User
Personas
“Special”
Calls
Release
Milestones
Answer
Desk
Technology
Assessment
Competitive
Analysis
Lead
Generation
Buyer Personas
Win-Loss
Market
Analysis
Product
Strategy
Program
Strategy
Product
Planning
Quantitative
Analysis
Channel
Support
Sales
Readiness
Strategic
Tactical
Channels
Analysis
Life Cycle
Strategy
Capabilities &
Resources
Supplier
Analysis
Sales Training
Sales
Automation
Market
Segments
Sell Against

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Era of Asymmetric Interpretation [Reconnaissance]
Asymmetric Interpretation Depends on Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing
Incisive
Scanning for Trends, there may be
no Decision made
Historical Patterns & Anomalies
Implications for the Reader
Bottom-Up Exposition
Driven by Trends
Product is Observation/Commentary
Emergent & Skeptical
Open Source
Decisive
Frame of Reference is the
Decision
Compares Options & Outcomes
Recommendations & Trust
Top-Down Imposition
Driven by Issues
Product is Decision/Action
Factual & Hypothetical
Confidential & Proprietary

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Asymmetric Interpretation Engages the Entire Workforce in Collaborative
Sensing to Anticipate and Act on Industry Change
Signals
of
Change
Strategic Choices
Influencing
Success
Likely Outcome of
Competitive
Battles
Why Reconnaissance?

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RECON
 RISK
 EFFICIENCY
 CUSTOMERS
 OUTLOOK
 NOVELTY
Intelligence Should Concentrate on
Five Domains of Business Problem Solving

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RISK
Ensuring against risk to the core business is critical to making
sure there is time for investments in new growth to start paying
off. Maintaining a positive status quo by protecting the core is
the chief role for managers in every business, with one caveat:
good businesses can often be the foremost enemy of great
businesses.
Cannibalization of a company’s current market share should not
exclude innovative ideas that might be foreign to the corporate
immune system.

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EFFICIENCY
The ruthless cutting away of unnecessary costs in the value
chain is essential for a new market innovation strategy to work.
Create or build up that which is not yet good enough and
diminish or destroy that which is unnecessary.
Most of the unnecessary elements in the incumbent value
chain have long-since outlived their usefulness or were never
very important to customers in the first place.

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CUSTOMERS
Companies become too dependent on their best customers’
input for signals about how they should innovate, but new
forms of competition usually present themselves at the current
consumption market.
The day your customers begin complaining about how
complicated or expensive or difficult your product is, you
should ask, “why was it good enough for them yesterday” and
who has offered an alternative?

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OUTLOOK
Traditional market segmentation based on demographic,
geographic or sociographic data are fleeting at best and illusory
at worst and many decisions have been based on flawed
definitions of the fastest growing markets.
Defining the market by the “jobs” customers wish to
accomplish is more helpful in defining fast growing target
markets. Focus groups are often the worst mechanism of
market testing.

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NOVELTY
Differentiation is mandatory for all organizations to master and
new market or “novel” solutions to customer problems are often
ecosystems of providers working together to produce sought-
after value.
Companies must build a business model designed to test
breakthroughs in the market more regularly but kill off those
that do not work early on, so support and development
resources can be allocated to those that do.

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Observer Collaborator Provocateur
TASKING COLLECTION DISSEMINATIONANALYSIS
People
Process
Products
Priorities
Intel Team Audit
Delphi Interviews with Key
Executive Clients
Enterprise-wide Recognition
of Intel Value by the
Workforce
SME Profiling / OSINT Intel Fitness Assessments,
Team Fundamentals &
TrainingHUMINT / Willingness to
share/contribute
Ability to Protect Confidential
IP, Elicitation Across the
Workforce
Market Research Derivative /
Ad-Hoc
Client-Driven / Defined
Systematic / Initiative /
Metrics
Stick-fetching / Service
Bureau / Responsive
More Intuitive, KIT &
KIQ-driven
“Consigliere” / G2
Strategic Advisor
Competitor Activity & Plans
(Reactive)
Market & Industry
Trends (Defensive)
Scenarios, Futures,
Disruptions (Offensive)
OSINT Self-Service (Email,
Google)
SME Nets, Ad-Hoc Field
HUMINT, Portals
(Intranet/SharePoint)
Crowdsourcing, Mobile, SME
Nets Formalized
Free Subscriptions, Google
Alerts, SharePoint
Network Hub,
Hand-Off to Execs
Invited to Decision Forums,
Ability to Tap SME Nets “at
will” with Success
Unstructured Known Needs
Convenient, Limited Clients
Internal / External Mix of
Some Key SBU’s
Systematic, Real-time
Problem-Solving,
Enterprise-wide
Asking Better Questions
Intel Community, Internal &
External
SWOT, Industry, Five Forces,
Competitor Financials -
Reactive
Benchmarking, Win/Loss,
STEEP, 4Cs - Proactive
Scenarios & Simulations, Value
Chain & Business Model -
Predictive
Reports / Alerts / Profiles
Summarized Situational,
Market & Industry Analyses
Interactive, Business
Performance Focused, Drives
Problem-Solving
Situational Assessment
Early Warning, Strategic
Issues, Key Players
Balanced Scorecard, and
Other BPM-driven
Applications
Client Definition, Push-
Demand Generated
Client Fitness
Pull-Demand Action
Email, Asynchronous
Intranet / Portal
Real-Time, Two-Way Persistent
Apps
Newsletters, Key Players
Events, Issues & Decision
Support
Early Warning, Detection &
Anticipation of Industry
Change
Mostly Push, Basic Reporting
Push / Pull “Balancing Act”
Client-Pull, Customized to
Individual Preferences and
Needs
Who?
How?
What?
Why?
What? So What? Now What?
Roadmap 3-Phases of Readiness

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Dr. Craig S. Fleisher

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Collaborative
Insights Team

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Performance-Driven Organizational Reconnaissance Engages the Workforce in
Collaborative Intelligence and Analytics to Anticipate and Act on Industry Change to
Ensure Good Governance for Stakeholders
Signals
of
Change
Strategic Choices
Influencing
Success
Likely Outcome of
Competitive
Battles

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What’s Next?
Leadership to Act is
Based on Confidence
Intelligence Combats the Paralysis that
Accompanies Uncertainty
Reconnaissance Transforms Your Workforce
into a Force to be Reckoned With
Feel free to ask for help:
 Email: Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com
 Phone: +1 (608) 630-4242
 Twitter: @ArikJohnson
 LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/ArikJohnson
 Skype: ArikJohnson
 Web: http://IntelCollab.com & http://AuroraWDC.com

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Training
Research
Systems
Three (3)
Keys to
Unlock
Intelligence
Potential
Key Intelligence
Topics &
Questions
Development
Scenarios,
Simulations, &
Early Warning
Professional &
Program
Development
Roadmaps
Technology,
Industry,
Competitor, &
Customer
Analysis
Profiling
Engine of
Key Players
Storage &
Retrieval of
Historical
Intelligence
External
Secondary
Awareness &
Monitoring
Map &
Manage
Internal Source
Networks
Human
Source
Universe for
Elicitation
Analytical
Methodology
& Tool
Selection
Intelligence
Project
& Program
Design
Business
Problem
Diagnostics

How Competitive and Market Intelligence will Shape Business Strategy in the Next 20 Years

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