Quantifying the impact of micro vehicles on trips, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and the present value of transportation. Presentation at the second Micromobility Summit, Techfestival, Copenhagen, September 5, 2018.

1. micromobility
when
attacks

2. US National Household Travel Survey 2017
VEHICLE TRIPS 220,430,000,000
VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL (VMT) 2,105,882,000,000 mi
PERSON TRIPS 371,152,000,000
PERSON MILES OF TRAVEL (PMT) 3,970,287,000,000 mi
2.1
Trillion miles
3.9
Trillion miles

3. Car Trip Distance Distribution (US) (n=748,918)
OneWayTrips(%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
Trip Distance (miles)
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79
One-way Trips (%)
Lognormal approximation
𝝻 Location parameter 1.65
𝞂 scale parameter 0.95
Arithmetic Mean 8.2
Median 5.2
Mode 2.1
Arithmetic Std. Dev. 7.8
Geometric Mean 5.21
Geometric Std. Dev 2.59
2/3 Min 2.01
2/3 Max 13.46
95% Min 0.78
95% Max 34.81
US Car

4. Miles/trip
(MEASURED)
TripsProbability
0
5
10
15
20
0 1.5 3 4.5 6 7.5 9 10.5 12 13.5 15 16.5 18 19.5
Trip Distance Probability
Log-normal Approximation
NYC Taxi

5. New York CITI Bike n = 42.7 million
Miles/trip
TripsProbability
Probability Density Functions
0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
Log-normal Approximations
0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
Miles/trip
(MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)

6. New York CITI Bike n = 42.7 million
(MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)
TripsProbability
0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
Miles
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
TripsProbability0
0.024
0.048
0.072
0.096
0.12
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
0
0.024
0.048
0.072
0.096
0.12
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
ln(Distance)

7. Boston Hubway n = 3.3 million
Miles/trip
TripsProbability
Miles/trip
(MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)
Probability Density Functions
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
Log-normal Fit
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6

8. Chicago Divvy n = 11.5 million
Miles/trip
TripsProbability
Miles/trip
(MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)
Probability Density Functions
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
Log-normal Fit
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6

9. DC Capital Bike Share n = 5.7 million
Miles/trip
TripsProbability
Miles/trip
(MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)
Probability Density Functions
0
0.023
0.045
0.068
0.09
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
Log-normal Approximations
0
0.023
0.045
0.068
0.09
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6

10. Zürich E-Bike Sharing
Miles/trip
TripsProbability
Miles/trip
(MEASURED, EUCLIDEAN)
0
0.018
0.035
0.053
0.07
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.5
8.9
9.3
9.7
PDF
0
0.018
0.035
0.053
0.07
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.5
8.9
9.3
9.7
Log-Normal Approximation Z Bikes

11. -0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2017-07-NE
2017-06-NE
2017-05-NE
2017-04-NE
2017-03-NE
2017-02-NE
2017-01-NE
2016-12-NE
2016-11-NE
2016-10-NE
2016-09-N
2016-08-N
2016-07-NE
2016-06-N
2016-04-NE
2016-03-N
2016-02-N
2016-01-NE
2015-12-NE
2015-11-NE
2015-10-NE
2015-09-N
2015-08-N
2015-07-NE
2015-06-N
2015-05-N
2015-04-NE
2015-03-N
2015-02-N
2015-01-NE
2014-12-NE
2014-11-NE
2014-09-N
2014-08-N
2014-07-NE
2014-06-N
2014-05-N
2014-03-N
2014-02-N
2014-01-NE
2013-12-NE
2013-11-NE
2013-10-NE
2013-09-N
2013-08-N
2013-07-NE
<𝝻, 𝞂> parameters Seasonal variance Boston v. NYC
𝞂
𝝻
Boston
NYC
NYC
Boston

13. Swiss Modal Distributions
0%
8%
15%
23%
30%
0.01.0
3.04.0
6.07.0
9.010.0
12.013.0
15.016.0
18.019.0
21.022.0
24.025.0
27.028.0
30.031.0
33.034.0
36.037.0
39.040.0
42.043.0
45.046.0
48.049.0
51.052.0
54.055.0
57.058.0
60.061.0
63.064.0
66.067.0
69.070.0
72.073.0
75.076.0
78.079.0
81.082.0
84.085.0
87.088.0
90.091.0
93.094.0
96.097.0
99.0100.0
CH 1 CHWalking CH 1
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0.01.0
3.04.0
6.07.0
9.010.0
12.013.0
15.016.0
18.019.0
21.022.0
24.025.0
27.028.0
30.031.0
33.034.0
36.037.0
39.040.0
42.043.0
45.046.0
48.049.0
51.052.0
54.055.0
57.058.0
60.061.0
63.064.0
66.067.0
69.070.0
72.073.0
75.076.0
78.079.0
81.082.0
84.085.0
87.088.0
90.091.0
93.094.0
96.097.0
99.0100.0
2 CHCycling 2
0%
1%
3%
4%
5%
0.01.0
3.04.0
6.07.0
9.010.0
12.013.0
15.016.0
18.019.0
21.022.0
24.025.0
27.028.0
30.031.0
33.034.0
36.037.0
39.040.0
42.043.0
45.046.0
48.049.0
51.052.0
54.055.0
57.058.0
60.061.0
63.064.0
66.067.0
69.070.0
72.073.0
75.076.0
78.079.0
81.082.0
84.085.0
87.088.0
90.091.0
93.094.0
96.097.0
99.0100.0
3 CHSmall moped 3
0%
1%
2%
2%
3%
0.01.0
3.04.0
6.07.0
9.010.0
12.013.0
15.016.0
18.019.0
21.022.0
24.025.0
27.028.0
30.031.0
33.034.0
36.037.0
39.040.0
42.043.0
45.046.0
48.049.0
51.052.0
54.055.0
57.058.0
60.061.0
63.064.0
66.067.0
69.070.0
72.073.0
75.076.0
78.079.0
81.082.0
84.085.0
87.088.0
90.091.0
93.094.0
96.097.0
99.0100.0
5 CHMotorcycle driver 5
0%
1%
2%
2%
3%
0.01.0
3.04.0
6.07.0
9.010.0
12.013.0
15.016.0
18.019.0
21.022.0
24.025.0
27.028.0
30.031.0
33.034.0
36.037.0
39.040.0
42.043.0
45.046.0
48.049.0
51.052.0
54.055.0
57.058.0
60.061.0
63.064.0
66.067.0
69.070.0
72.073.0
75.076.0
78.079.0
81.082.0
84.085.0
87.088.0
90.091.0
93.094.0
96.097.0
99.0100.0
7 CHCar driver 7
0%
1%
2%
2%
3%
0.01.0
3.04.0
6.07.0
9.010.0
12.013.0
15.016.0
18.019.0
21.022.0
24.025.0
27.028.0
30.031.0
33.034.0
36.037.0
39.040.0
42.043.0
45.046.0
48.049.0
51.052.0
54.055.0
57.058.0
60.061.0
63.064.0
66.067.0
69.070.0
72.073.0
75.076.0
78.079.0
81.082.0
84.085.0
87.088.0
90.091.0
93.094.0
96.097.0
99.0100.0
8 CHCar passenger 8

15. Addressable Market in Trip Distances for Various Modes
0.1mi.
1mi.
10mi.
100mi.
1000mi.
10000mi.
WalkUK
ZHWalking
ikes(NYCCitiBike)
-bike(NereZurich)
ZHschoolbus
ZHCycling
ZHTram/metro
NYCTaxi
CHWalking
CHTaxi
PersonalBicycle
etransport(Uber?)
BusinLondon
ZHCardriver
ZHCarpassenger
rlocalbusEngland
Taxi/minicabUK
USCar
CHMicromobility
ZHTrain
ublictransportUK
vanpassengerUK
CardriverUK
MotorcycleUK
ndonUnderground
CHCycling
ike(max.25km/h)
CHTram/metro
CHSmallmoped
CHOther
CHschoolbus
SurfaceRailUK
ar/Funicular/skilift
otorcycle(<50cc)
late(max45km/h)
Motorcycledriver
CHCardriver
torcyclepassenger
CHBus(Postauto)
CHCarpassenger
CHBoat
CHTruck
Bus(longdistance)
CHTrain
Non-localbusUK
assengerAirTravel
CHAircraft
2/3 Min
2/3 Max
Median
95% Min
95% Max
MICROMOBILITY

16. Car Trip Distance Distribution (US) (n=748,918)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79
Lognormal approximation
US Car

17. US Car Trips <31, >30mi. Vehicle Trips Distribution (US) (n=748,918)
OneWayTrips(count)
0
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
70,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

18. US Car VMT VMT Distribution (US) (n=748,918)
VehicleMilesTraveled
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

19. US Car VMT Buckets VMT BUCKETS (US) (n=748,918)
VehicleMilesTraveled
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
900,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,100,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1,067,622,603,274
612,861,811,859
425,397,584,867
VMT Distribution (US) (n=748,918)
VehicleMilesTraveled
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

20. US Car VMT Buckets VMT BUCKETS (US) (n=748,918)
VehicleMilesTraveled
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
900,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,100,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1,067,622,603,274
1,038,259,396,726
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1.1
Trillion miles
1.0
Trillion miles

21. How Much Does a Mile Cost?
PRICING VMT IN NYC
$0.00
$3.00
$6.00
$9.00
$12.00
$15.00
$18.00
TRIP DISTANCE
0.5 1 1.5 2 3
$0.50
IRS DEDUCTION
Taxi
Citibike
MICROMOBILIT Y
$0.00
$0.75
$1.50
$2.25
$3.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

22. US Revenue Buckets Dollar BUCKETS (US) (n=748,918)
PersonDollar-Miles
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
900,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,100,000,000,000
1,200,000,000,000
1,300,000,000,000
1,400,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
$1,111,051,834,588
$1,408,549,860,197
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
Trip Distance (miles)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
$1.1
Trillion
$1.4
Trillion

23. SMALL DISTANCES IN SMALL
VEHICLES
ELECTRIC EARLY,
AUTONOMOUS LATE
AUTONOMOUS EARLY,
ELECTRIC LATE
2026: 40 million units/yr
Micromobility market will grow fastest
LARGE DISTANCES IN
LARGE VEHICLES
The Unbundling is Coming