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Atul Bagga
(accompanying blog-post at aplusgame.blogspot.com)
Return Annualized
Ticker                  IPO Date         IPO Price Current Price since IPO     return
P                         Jun-11           $16.00         $7.95      -50%       -34%
GRPN                      Nov-11           $20.00         $4.41      -78%       -70%
ZNGA                      Dec-11           $10.00         $2.45      -76%       -76%

FB                       May-12            $38.00        $27.98      -26%       -45%

Average                                                              -58%       -56%

NASDAQ Peak-tough performance (May-00 to Sep-01)                     -70%       -62%
$45.00                                                                   3500
              P            GRPN        ZNGA      FB       NASDAQ (RHS)
$40.00
                                                                         3000

$35.00
                                                                         2500
$30.00


$25.00                                                                   2000


$20.00                                                                   1500

$15.00
                                                                         1000
$10.00

                                                                         500
 $5.00


 $0.00                                                                   0
     Jun-11       Sep-11      Dec-11    Mar-12   Jun-12    Sep-12
$1,200

                        Advertising revenue           Payment & Other

$1,000




 $800




 $600




 $400




 $200




   $0
     3Q10       4Q10    1Q11            2Q11   3Q11          4Q11       1Q12   2Q12   3Q12


         Source: Company Reports
1100                                                                                                650

                       MAU (Million, LHS)                 DAU (Million, RHS)
                                                                                                    600
1000


                                                                                                    550
900

                                                                                                    500
800

                                                                                                    450

 700
                                                                                                    400

600
                                                                                                    350


500
                                                                                                    300


400                                                                                                 250
         3Q10   4Q10          1Q11          2Q11   3Q11          4Q11          1Q12   2Q12   3Q12

       Source: Company Reports
5.50                                                                                     2.90
                        US & Canada                 Europe

                                                                                         2.70
5.00

                                                                                         2.50


4.50
                                                                                         2.30



                                                                                         2.10
4.00


                                                                                         1.90

3.50
                                                                                         1.70



3.00                                                                                     1.50
          3Q10   4Q10      1Q11       2Q11   3Q11            4Q11   1Q12   2Q12   3Q12



       Source: Company Reports
1.30

                        Asia                 ROW
1.20


1.10


1.00


0.90


0.80


0.70


0.60


0.50
          3Q10   4Q10          1Q11   2Q11         3Q11   4Q11   1Q12   2Q12   3Q12

       Source: Company Reports
2.70                                                                                 65%

                         ARPDAU                 Mobile DAU/Total DAU
                                                                                     60%
2.50


                                                                                     55%
2.30

                                                                                     50%

2.10

                                                                                     45%

1.90
                                                                                     40%


1.70
                                                                                     35%



1.50                                                                                 30%
          3Q10   4Q10   1Q11      2Q11   3Q11     4Q11        1Q12     2Q12   3Q12




       Source: Company Reports
350                                                                                         350%
                  Revenue ($ Million, LHS)          Revenue Growth (%, RHS)
                                                                                            300%
300


                                                                                            250%
250

                                                                                            200%
200

                                                                                            150%

150
                                                                                            100%

100
                                                                                            50%


 50
                                                                                            0%


 0                                                                                          -50%
      3Q09      1Q10              3Q10       1Q11           3Q11              1Q12   3Q12




      Source: Company Reports
350                                                                                                                80


                                                                                                                   70
300


                                                                                                                   60
250

                                                                                                                   50
200

                                                                                                                   40

150
                                                                                                                   30

100
                                                                                                                   20


 50
               Monthly Active User of MAU (Million, LHS)          Daily Active User or DAU (Million, RHS)          10


 -                                                                                                                 -
       3Q09       1Q10               3Q10                  1Q11      3Q11                1Q12               3Q12

      Source: Company Reports
40.00                                                                                                             4.50


35.00                                                                                                             4.00


                                                                                                                  3.50
30.00

                                                                                                                  3.00
25.00

                                                                                                                  2.50
20.00
                                                                                                                  2.00

15.00
                                                                                                                  1.50

10.00
                                                                                                                  1.00

 5.00                                                                                                             0.50
          Average Revenue Per Paying User or ARPPU ($/Month, LHS)   Monthly Paying Users or MPU (Million, RHS)


   -                                                                                                              -
        3Q09             1Q10             3Q10              1Q11       3Q11              1Q12              3Q12

   Source: Company Reports
7.00                                                                                   0.5

                                                                                       0.45
6.00
                                                                                       0.4

5.00                                                                                   0.35

                                                                                       0.3
4.00

                                                                                       0.25

3.00
                                                                                       0.2


2.00                                                                                   0.15
               ARPDAU (LHS, Cents)   Mobile DAU/Total DAU (RHS)
                                                                                       0.1
1.00
                                                                                       0.05

  -                                                                                    0
        3Q09              1Q10           3Q10             1Q11    3Q11   1Q12   3Q12



       Source: Company Reports

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Were mayans right

  • 1. Atul Bagga (accompanying blog-post at aplusgame.blogspot.com)
  • 2. Return Annualized Ticker IPO Date IPO Price Current Price since IPO return P Jun-11 $16.00 $7.95 -50% -34% GRPN Nov-11 $20.00 $4.41 -78% -70% ZNGA Dec-11 $10.00 $2.45 -76% -76% FB May-12 $38.00 $27.98 -26% -45% Average -58% -56% NASDAQ Peak-tough performance (May-00 to Sep-01) -70% -62%
  • 3. $45.00 3500 P GRPN ZNGA FB NASDAQ (RHS) $40.00 3000 $35.00 2500 $30.00 $25.00 2000 $20.00 1500 $15.00 1000 $10.00 500 $5.00 $0.00 0 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
  • 4.
  • 5. $1,200 Advertising revenue Payment & Other $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 6. 1100 650 MAU (Million, LHS) DAU (Million, RHS) 600 1000 550 900 500 800 450 700 400 600 350 500 300 400 250 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 7. 5.50 2.90 US & Canada Europe 2.70 5.00 2.50 4.50 2.30 2.10 4.00 1.90 3.50 1.70 3.00 1.50 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 8. 1.30 Asia ROW 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 9. 2.70 65% ARPDAU Mobile DAU/Total DAU 60% 2.50 55% 2.30 50% 2.10 45% 1.90 40% 1.70 35% 1.50 30% 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 10. 350 350% Revenue ($ Million, LHS) Revenue Growth (%, RHS) 300% 300 250% 250 200% 200 150% 150 100% 100 50% 50 0% 0 -50% 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 11. 350 80 70 300 60 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 Monthly Active User of MAU (Million, LHS) Daily Active User or DAU (Million, RHS) 10 - - 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 12. 40.00 4.50 35.00 4.00 3.50 30.00 3.00 25.00 2.50 20.00 2.00 15.00 1.50 10.00 1.00 5.00 0.50 Average Revenue Per Paying User or ARPPU ($/Month, LHS) Monthly Paying Users or MPU (Million, RHS) - - 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  • 13. 7.00 0.5 0.45 6.00 0.4 5.00 0.35 0.3 4.00 0.25 3.00 0.2 2.00 0.15 ARPDAU (LHS, Cents) Mobile DAU/Total DAU (RHS) 0.1 1.00 0.05 - 0 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports