How addressing climate change may improve your health
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Climate change may have significant impacts on human health through various pathways. Addressing climate change could help reduce these health risks. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through measures like improving energy efficiency, expanding clean transport options, and adopting sustainable agriculture practices may also provide near-term health benefits by improving air quality and promoting active lifestyles. While climate change poses health challenges, timely action to reduce emissions and adapt to changes can help limit health risks and create healthier communities.
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How addressing climate change may improve your health
- 1. Why addressing climate change may be good for your health Paul Wilkinson London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
- 2. Paleo‐climate & CO2 record, Vostock ice cores, Antarctica Hoped for stabilization 550 10 Temperature (degrees Celsius) relative to today (CO2 equivalent) 500 450 CO2 concentrations, ppmv 5 400 Current CO2 350 0 300 Pre-industrial CO2 250 -5 200 150 -10 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 Thousands of years relative to present
- 3. IPCC scenario ‘projections’ 4‐5 °C Younger Dryas event (12.9 mya): sudden increase dramatic drop in temperature after warming (Europe summers 5‐8°C cooler, winters 10‐12 °C cooler). Then equally sudden increase. Source: WHO, 2003: Climate change and human health: risks and responses.
- 4. Responses Adaptation Mitigation “actions taken to help “implementing policies to communities and ecosystems reduce GHG emissions and cope with changing climate enhance sinks” conditions”
- 5. Reducing the impact on health of climate change
- 6. CLIMATE CHANGE & HEALTH Moderating influences HEALTH EFFECTS Temperature-related REGIONAL illness, death WEATHER Extreme weather- CHANGES: related health effects -temperature/ Air pollution-related CLIMATE heatwaves Contamination health effects pathways CHANGE - extreme Allergies weather Transmission dynamics Water- and food -precipitation Crop production borne diseases Air pollution Vector-borne and levels rodent-borne dis. Malnutrition Based on Patz et al. 2000 Adaptation measures
- 7. Mortality in Paris, 1999‐2002 v 2003 peak: 13 Aug
- 8. Epidemiological relationship: London London Slope 1.8 = 3.8% per oC RR 1.6 1.4 1.2 % of days 1.0 15 0.8 Threshold 10 = 24.8 oC 5 0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Temperature Source: JECH 2010
- 10. Mosquito Parasite Biting frequency Survival probability Incubation period 1 50 0.3 0.8 40 (per day) (per day) (days) 0.2 0.6 30 0.4 20 0.1 0.2 10 0 0 0 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 15 20 25 30 35 40 Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 Temperature (°C)
- 11. PREDICTED CHANGE IN MONTHS PER YEAR OF FALCIPARUM MALARIA TRANSMISSION BY 2080 Difference in months of transmission 2080s and baseline >+1 month +1 month -1 month <-1 month From Martens et al. 1999 [Climate change scenario developed by the UK Hadley Centre]
- 17. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions compared to 2.9‐6.9°C IPCC Marker scenarios used for climate projections 1.6‐3.4°C CO2 emissions (Pg C y‐1) 10 5 1980 2000 2020 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al (2009) Nature Geoscience, using Marker scenarios modified from Raupach et al. PNAS (2007)
- 18. Per capita energy use vs GDP (2007) Source: Gapminder database Qatar 10000 United States (kWh per year, log scale) Spain Per capita energy use China 1000 India 100 100 1000 10000 100000 Per capita GPD (year 2000 US$, log scale)
- 19. Per capita CO2 emissions vs GDP (2007) Source: Gapminder database Qatar 20 United States (tonnes per year, log scale) Spain Per capita CO2 emissions China 5 India .2 1 100 1000 10000 100000 Per capita GPD (year 2000 US$, log scale)
- 20. Mitigation • Requires reduction in GHG emissions by ~90% in high income countries by mid century • Major shifts in all sectors of the economy • Changes in technology, regulation, (fiscal) incentives, persuasion, cooperation… Efficiency alone is not a solution • Non‐linearities suggest it may already be too late (Lovelock): polar albedo, reversal of Amazonian carbon sink, gas hydrates etc • Rationale for change needs to be based on nearer‐term imperatives: ‘peak oil’, energy security, health
- 23. Study methods Scenarios • Interventions of the type and scale needed to achieve 2030 GHG abatement targets • Case studies from high‐ and low‐income countries • Health impact calculations based on comparative risk assessment approach (WHO) Sectors • Household energy • Transport • Electricity generation • Food and agriculture
- 24. HOUSEHOLD ENERGY Setting Intervention Time course Principal Main exposures outcomes Changes to: fabric, Particles Cardio‐ ventilation 2010, with and Radon respiratory control, fuel without ETS disease UK source, intervention Mould Lung cancer temperature Temperature Cold‐related setting (cold) death Improved (clean ALRI (children) 150 million Indoor exposure burning) IHD India stoves over 10 to combustion cookstove COPD years products programme
- 25. RADON PM CO Indoor air VENTILATION quality ETS VOCs Altered ventilation Mould Cardio- growth respiratory illness Winter morbidity/ Temperature mortality Energy WINTER WARMTH/ efficiency control SUMMER COOL Thermal comfort Use of space Social interaction Psycho-social Sense of control well-being Lower fuel use & cost Increased Nutrition ENERGY USE disposable income Local and global Reduced environmental emissions impacts
- 26. … in Indian – replacing traditional with modern stoves Per meal ~15‐fold reduction in black carbon and other particles ~10‐fold reduction in ozone precursors ~5‐fold reduction in carbon monoxide Gasifier Stove with Electric Blower (battery recharged with Traditional Biomass Stove cell phone charger)
- 27. GHG benefits of Indian stove programme • Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone precursors could amount to the equivalent of 0.5‐1.0 billion tonnes of CO2 eq over the decade • Because they are short lived (days), reductions in the emissions would immediately benefit climate, unlike CO2 • Cost <$50 per household every 5 years
- 28. Impact per million of UK household India programme 2010 population in 1 energy efficiency of improved year (combined cookstoves* improvements) DALYs saved 850 12,500 Deaths averted 90 990 Mt‐CO2 (CO2e) saved 0.7 0.1 ‐ 0.2 * Results based on comparison of 2010 population with and without full implementation of programme
- 29. Pathways linking transport and health Climate change Road injuries Chronic disease Vehicle Physical transport inactivity Overweight/ Mental well‐ obesity being Environmental pollution Promotion of active transport Noise/QoL
- 31. Health effects by disease (London) Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths Ischaemic heart 10‐19% 1440‐2210 disease Cerebrovascular 10‐18% 870‐1270 disease Dementia 7‐8% 200‐250 Breast cancer 12‐13% 200‐210 Road traffic crashes 19‐39% 50‐90
- 32. Air pollution impacts vs CO2 emissions Cases of serious illness from air pollution /TWh Deaths from air pollution and accidents/TWh A B 40 30 lignite 0 lignite 30 coal 200 coal oil 20 oil 100 10 biomass biomass gas gas nuclear 0 nuclear 0 0 500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500 Equivalent CO2 emissions g/kW.hr-1 Source: Markandya A, Wilkinson P. Lancet 2007
- 33. Food and Agriculture Sector • Source of 10‐12% of global greenhouse‐gas emissions • Change in land‐use (eg. deforestation) significant contributor to global emissions (adds further 6‐17%) • Total emissions from sector set to rise by up to 50% by 2030 • Four‐fifths (80%) of total emissions in sector arise from processes involved in livestock production
- 35. Recent and projected (to 2050) consumption of livestock products Projections Industrialised Ex‐Soviet bloc countries ‐in‐transition East Asia Latin America, Near East, N Caribbean Africa South Asia Sub‐Saharan Africa Year Source: Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 2007.
- 36. Estimates of total greenhouse‐gas emissions for livestock products in the UK Tonnes of CO2e per tonne of carcass mass Not including emissions resulting from global change in land use
- 37. Case studies: health effects • Case studies: UK and the city of São Paulo, Brazil • Assumed: 30% reduction in livestock production and animal source saturated fat consumption • Outcome: substantial benefits from decreased IHD: – UK: ~15%↓ (~ 18,000 premature deaths averted) – São Paulo: ~16%↓ (~ 1000 premature deaths averted)
- 38. 12500 DALYs saved per million 2010 population in 1 year Delhi, sustainable 10000 transport India, clean cookstove (2010 calculation) 7500 London, sustainable transport 5000 UK, food (IHD) 2500 India, electricity, full trade China, electricity, full Delhi, lower C trade driving 0 UK, housing, combined London, lower C driving efficiency EU, electricity, full trade ‐.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 Mt CO2e saved per million 2010 population in 1 year
- 39. Conclusions • Adaptation to the evolving risks of climate change will be needed irrespective of mitigation measures • There are potentially substantial dividends for health of a transition to a low carbon economy, which provides an added rationale for acceleration of mitigation actions • Policies that address both public health and climate change are more attractive than focusing on either in isolation