20131207 BH Report: Innovation - The Rate of Adoption

1. BH Report: Innovation – The Rate of Adoption
2013/12/7

2. Summary
•We live in the era of rapid adoption for innovative products and services – we hear about some cool new "thing", and the next thing you know, everyone is using it (including yourself)
•In this report, I tried to test if there has been an observable acceleration of innovation rate of adoption by comparing how "innovations" gained scale in the US
–I included following products in the comparison: Ford Model T, Television, Computer, Internet, Smartphone, Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, Tablets
–Since it is sometimes tough to define when certain products 'started' (e.g., Internet), I measured the growth of each product from the year in which the product reached 1 million in unit
•For the most part, it seems true that the rate of adoption for innovation has been accelerating, though there are some exceptions (as always)
–It used to take >5 years for innovative products to scale from 1 million to 10 million in units (adopting TVs in households was an exception to this – it only took ~3 years despite it being in late 1940's)
–Nowadays, innovative products can reach 10 million scale (~3% of US population) in <2 years, and 100 million scale (~1/3rd of US population) in <5 years
** I do have to caveat above statement that it is in a way nonsense to compare the rate of adoption for above examples due to the differences in population base, purchasing powers, and in ease of adoption (e.g., heck of a lot easier signing up to facebook than buying a car)... but I thought it would nonetheless give interesting comparative perspectives

3. Speed at which innovative products gain scale has been accelerating
1,000
100
10
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Million (log scale)
Approx # of years since reaching 1 million
Smartphone5
Television7
Internet6
Ford Model T9
Computer8
Twitter4
Facebook2
Tablet3
Youtube1
1. # US monthly unique visitors. # of years is not fully accurate as Youtube users reached 1 million and 10 million in less than a year. Source: comScore, "Youtube: The Company and Its Founders
(Technology Pioneers)"; 2. # US monthly active users Source: TechCrunch, Facebook, Triangulation 3. Refer to the generation of Tablet since 2010 (i.e., post iPad). # Tablet PC users in the US.
. # of years is not fully accurate as Tablet users reached 1 million and 10 million in less than a year. Source: Forrester; 4. # US monthly active users Source: eMarketer, Twitter; 5. # Smartphone
users in the US Source: Asymco; 6. # Internet users in the US Source: EIU; 7. # US households with TV Source: TV Facts; 8. # US households with Computer Source: US Census Bureau,
Compu-pedia; 9. Cumulative # of Ford Model T produced in the US Source: Ford
US only

4. Nowadays, innovation can achieve 10 million scale (~3% of US population) in <2 years, and 100 million scale (~1/3rd of US population) in <5 years
Product
When was the product introduced?
When did it reach
1 million?
Since 1 million, how long did it take to reach 10 million?
Since 1 million, how long did it take to reach 100 million?
Ford Model T9
1908
1916
~8-9 years
n/a
Television7
Unclear (~40's)
1948
~3 years
n/a
Computer8
Unclear (~70's)
1980
~6-7 years
n/a
Internet6
Unclear (~80's)
1989
~4-5 years
~10 years
Smartphone5
Unclear (~90's)
2003
~3-4 years
~8-9 years
Facebook2
2004
2004
~2-3 years
~5 years
Youtube1
2005
2005
<1 year
~3 years
Twitter4
2006
2008
~1-2 years
n/a
Tablet3
2010
2010
<1 year
n/a
US only
1. # US monthly unique visitors. # of years is not fully accurate as Youtube users reached 1 million and 10 million in less than a year. Source: comScore, "Youtube: The Company and Its Founders (Technology Pioneers)"; 2. # US monthly active users Source: TechCrunch, Facebook, Triangulation 3. Refer to the generation of Tablet since 2010 (i.e., post iPad). # Tablet PC users in the US. . # of years is not fully accurate as Tablet users reached 1 million and 10 million in less than a year. Source: Forrester; 4. # US monthly active users Source: eMarketer, Twitter; 5. # Smartphone users in the US Source: Asymco; 6. # Internet users in the US Source: EIU; 7. # US households with TV Source: TV Facts; 8. # US households with Computer Source: US Census Bureau, Compu-pedia; 9. Cumulative # of Ford Model T produced in the US Source: Ford
Impressive considering that the US population back in 1916 was ~100 million (10 million meant 10%)
Dramatic growth even from modern standards (translating to ~0.5% of HH owning TV in '48 to ~25% HH owning TV in '51)
Twitter grew quicker than Facebook getting to 10 million, but is sort of stagnating at least in the US (# US monthly active users ~50 million in 2013). Not quite sure when it exceeds 100 million mark...

5. Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.