Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

Sismologia na era da comunicação digital

143 vues

Publié le

Comunicação apresentada pela Doutora Susana Custódio na Semana das Ciências, na Escola Secundária du Bocage

Publié dans : Formation
  • Soyez le premier à commenter

  • Soyez le premier à aimer ceci

Sismologia na era da comunicação digital

  1. 1. Sismologia na era da comunicação digital Susana Custódio susana@fc.ul.pt ESB, 22/Fev/2018 Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011
  2. 2. A nossa Terra ETHZ-HPCSED
  3. 3. Placas litosféricas que se movem NASA
  4. 4. O que é um sismo ISC, 1960 – present
  5. 5. O que é um sismo?
  6. 6. Geração de ondas sísmicas L. Matias, FCUL
  7. 7. [Hayes, Wald, et al.]
  8. 8. Destruição causada por sismos Sichuan, China, M7.9, 2008 Haiti, M7, 2010 Christchurch, New Zealand, M6.3, 2011 Lorca, Espanha, M5.1, 2011
  9. 9. Mega-sismos: Sumatra, 2004, M9.1
  10. 10. Mega-sismos: Sumatra, 2004, M9.1
  11. 11. Perdas humanas e económicas [Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado]
  12. 12. Como reduzir as perdas causadas pelos sismos? REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer) Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake
  13. 13. Estimar os impactos dos sismos Earthquake ferent time scales of the uake process re of by REAL- 1. Fonte 2. Propagação 3. Sítio 4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário REAKT
  14. 14. Sismologia em tempo real Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
  15. 15. Sismologia em tempo real com dados sísmicos Kanamori, Nature 1997
  16. 16. Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?
  17. 17. Localização do Hipocentro (< 1 min) SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008Guralp
  18. 18. Shakemaps (5-7 min) shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. • ‘Ground Motion Prediction Equations’ (propagação das ondas sísmicas) • Interpolação entre estações
  19. 19. Antecipar o movimento do solo Earthquake ferent time scales of the uake process re of by REAL- 1. Fonte 2. Propagação 3. Sítio 4. Vulnerabilidade & Inventário REAKT
  20. 20. Estimativa de danos PAGER M 7.8, IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER REGION Origin Time: Tue 2013-04-16 10:44:20 UTC (15:14:20 local) Location: 28.11 o N 62.05 o E Depth: 82 km PAGER Version 6 Estimated Fatalities Estimated Economic Losses Created: 7 hours, 31 minutes after earthquake Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking ESTIMATED POPULATION EXPOSURE (k = x1000) - -* - -* 135k* 2,600k* 1,682k 377k 2k 0 0 ESTIMATED MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY PERCEIVED SHAKING Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme POTENTIAL DAMAGE Resistant Structures Vulnerable Structures none none none none none none V. Light Light Light Moderate Moderate Moderate/Heavy Moderate/Heavy Heavy Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy *Estimated exposure only includes population within the map area. Population Exposure population per ~1 sq. km from Landscan Orange alert level for shaking-related fatalities. Significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Yellow alert level for economic losses. Some damage is possible. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Structures: Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with timber floor construction. Historical Earthquakes (with MMI levels): Date (UTC) Dist. (km) Mag. Max MMI(#) Shaking Deaths 1989-12-07 389 5.9 VIII(127) 0 1994-02-23 339 6.1 VII(508) 6 2003-12-26 386 6.6 IX(70k) 26k Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses. Selected City Exposure from GeoNames.org MMI City Population VII Khash 70k VI Zahedan 552k VI Iranshahr 131k VI Rudbar 11k
  21. 21. Sismologia em tempo real Long-term Hazard Mapping Long-term Forecasting Short-term Forecasting Early Warning ShakeMaps & Rapid Loss Aftershock Forecasting Decades Years Days to Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours Minutes to Days Earthquake REAKT (From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
  22. 22. Aviso Antecipado
  23. 23. Aviso Antecipado 1. As primeiras ondas (P) têm menor amplitude. 2. As primeiras ondas (P) contêm informação sobre a magnitude dos sismos. Allen et al, 2003
  24. 24. Aviso Antecipado JMA
  25. 25. Aviso Antecipado Allen et al, SRL 2009
  26. 26. REDES DE CIDADÃOS “CITIZEN EMPOWERED SEISMOLOGY” CROWDSOURCING
  27. 27. Did You Feel It? IPMA
  28. 28. Did You Feel It? Wald et al, AG 2012 M 4.2, VA M 4.4, CA
  29. 29. Detecção de sismos por acessos à página do EMSC
  30. 30. Detecção de sismos por acessos à página do EMSC Bossu et al, AG 2012
  31. 31. Detecção de sismos por Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012 “earthquake”, “gempa”, “temblor”, “terremoto”, “sismo”
  32. 32. Redes de MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems) Quake Catcher Network
  33. 33. O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al
  34. 34. O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al
  35. 35. O que é que vamos ver com redes muito densas? Clayton et al, AG 2012
  36. 36. E em Portugal?
  37. 37. As magnitudes dos sismos Zoback and Gorelick, 2012
  38. 38. Fast Earthquake W arnings Email SMS Radio Fax Telefone Civil Protection W arnings [ operator validation] Delay after Origin Time: 3m40s Delay after 1º record: 3m31s Delay after minimum set of records (10): 2m43s SeiscomP 2.6, SEISAN 8.1 (modified) and in-house software Portugal: Hipocentro e Magnitude Imagem cedida por F. Carrilho, IPMA
  39. 39. Shakemap: Portugal
  40. 40. Sentiu um sismo?
  41. 41. Alguns links… • IPMA: – https://www.ipma.pt/pt/geofisica/sismologia/ • EMSC: – http://www.emsc-csem.org – http://www.citizenseismology.eu/index.html#materials • USGS: – http://earthquake.usgs.gov
  42. 42. Webpages • PAGER: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/
  43. 43. Aviso Antecipado
  44. 44. Aviso Antecipado
  45. 45. Ondas sísmicas
  46. 46. Um século de sismos Ammon et al., SRL 2010
  47. 47. Detecção de sismos por Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012
  48. 48. W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
  49. 49. W-phase Lockwood and Kanamori, G3 2006
  50. 50. W-phase W phase source inversion group http://wphase.unistra.fr/ Onda de longo período (100 – 1000 s)
  51. 51. W-phase Seth and Wyssession, Blackwell Publishing 2003
  52. 52. Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões Source
  53. 53. Source Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
  54. 54. Source Propagação das ondas Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
  55. 55. Source Propagação das ondas Modelado Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
  56. 56. Source Propagação das ondas Modelado Dados Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
  57. 57. Source Propagação das ondas Modelado Dados Modelação de Fontes Sísmicas: Inversões
  58. 58. W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
  59. 59. W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Duputel et al, preliminary results for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
  60. 60. Redes de MEMS QCN
  61. 61. Mwp Tsuboi, GRL 2000
  62. 62. W phase: CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor)
  63. 63. Actualização dos Shakemaps e dos danos previstos Mapas de velocidade de pico cumulativa Terashake
  64. 64. Human and economic losses [Roger Bilham, Univ Colorado] This is how much we borrowed from Troika
  65. 65. Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?
  66. 66. Portugal: Factores de Amplificação Teves-Costa et al, 2010
  67. 67. Determinação de Magnitudes Bobby Motwani
  68. 68. Determinação de Magnitudes SeisComp3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008
  69. 69. Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento Source Propagação das ondas
  70. 70. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  71. 71. Modelos de Fonte Finita Hayes et al., SRL 2011
  72. 72. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  73. 73. Aviso Antecipado Project REAKT, FP7
  74. 74. Aviso Antecipado http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33JI929aCS8 Courtesy of Aldo Zollo T0 PRESTo PLUS Eqk Epicenter Vulnerable Site S-Waves Station Alert Level Magnitude Accelerograms P- and S-wavesWindows Depth Courtesy of Aldo Zollo
  75. 75. Aviso Antecipado Aldo Zollo
  76. 76. Did You Feel It? Wald et al, AG 2012 Did You Feel It 1999 – 2011 1.6 million responses USA Hazard Map 10%, PGA, 50 yrs
  77. 77. Wald et al, AG 2012
  78. 78. Did You Feel It? Wald et al, AG 2012
  79. 79. A Terra por dentro Wiley
  80. 80. Energy Released in Earthquakes IRIS
  81. 81. Tectónica de placas USGS J. Renner
  82. 82. How much energy does a mega-earthquake release?
  83. 83. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? Did You Feel It? Wald et al., AG 2012 3. Porque avança a ciência
  84. 84. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? 4. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência. Global CMT
  85. 85. Localização do Hipocentro Guralp STA LTA • Ondas P • Picks automáticos
  86. 86. Localização do Hipocentro • Ondas P • Picks automáticos • Agregação de picks • Actualização automática SeisComP3 Hanka et al, ORFEUS Newsletter 2008
  87. 87. Shakemaps Input
  88. 88. Shakemaps GMPE (Groud Motion Prediction Earthquakes)
  89. 89. Shakemaps Factores de Amplificação
  90. 90. Shakemaps • Mapas de: – PGA – PGV – PGD – SA – Intensidade shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control.
  91. 91. Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento Domingues et al., GJI 2012
  92. 92. Detecção de sismos por Tweets Earle et al, AG 2012
  93. 93. Redes de MEMS Micro Electro Mechanical Systems
  94. 94. Sismologia na era da comunicação digital Susana Custódio susana@fc.ul.pt Kanamori,Nature1997 ESB, 23/Fev/2017
  95. 95. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? 1. Porque reduz os danos materiais e humanos. es ties receive the warnings them with public address Docomo, AU, Softbank) receive them (47%) iders serve earthquake location and hazard estimated shaking in your area Aviso antecipado, Japão Tohoku 2011 Courtesy of Richard Allen, UC Berkeley Shakemap, M4.3 LA Worden et al., BSSA 2010 Shakemap Aviso Antecipado
  96. 96. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011 2. Porque queremos (e esperamos) saber rapidamente o que se está a passar.
  97. 97. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real? Ellsworth and Beroza Science, 1995 3. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência.
  98. 98. Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real? Ammon et al., SRL 2010
  99. 99. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min 30 min 1 hr15 min
  100. 100. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min
  101. 101. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  102. 102. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  103. 103. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  104. 104. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr W-phase 20-50 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
  105. 105. Mecanismo Focal: Inversões do Tensor Momento Domingues et al., GJI 2012
  106. 106. Sismo TO Tempo Redes Globais Mecanismo Focal Estimativa de danos Sismo TO Redes Regionais Portugal 3 min 5 min Falha finita 2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min Hipocentro 5-15 min < 1 min Magnitude 5-20 min 2-3 min 30 min 1 hr15 min 5-7 min 5-20 min Shakemaps ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06 shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity. ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have substantially better station control. TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps W-phase 20-50 min >20 min > 2 hr 5-10 min 20 min – 10 hr
  107. 107. Aviso Antecipado 1. As primeiras ondas (P) têm menor amplitude. 2. As primeiras ondas (P) contêm informação sobre a magnitude dos sismos. Allen et al, 2003
  108. 108. Qual a informação que temos disponível em tempo real?

×