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tradingfootball.eu: The Nugget Green Book

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tradingfootball.eu: The Nugget Green Book

  1. 1. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />A handy guide for those trading football nuggets<br />
  2. 2.
  3. 3. CONTENTS<br />12<br />3<br />9<br />6<br />
  4. 4. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />1<br />Player injured<br />There are key moments during the 90` of a football match, the most defining of all, of course, being a goal scored.<br />A red card given to a player also counts as a key moment. <br />Both of the above occurrences lead to the SUSPENDED sign flash across our Betfair screens and 15-20 seconds later the market reforms as the odds change to reflect these events<br />How about this moment, though, that can have an effect of the odds movement. A player, normally a key attacker like Ronaldo, Messi or Rooney, for example, suffers a bad injury and is forced to take no further part in the game. <br />Notice particularly the Under/Over 2.5 goals market and see how many ticks the price drops as the market reacts to this event.<br />As with many of the nuggets contained in this book, you need to be quick to react yourself in order to make the trade successful<br />
  5. 5. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />2<br />We have talked earlier about how key moments in a match effect the odds movements to a greater or lesser degree depending on precisely what has occurred. <br />A free kick just outside the penalty area or a corner even falls into the above category. <br />As Messi or Ronaldo are lining up to take the freekick (and the defence are lining their wall) the layers on the exchanges are twitching just a little bit more nervously. As a backer you can jump in smartish before the kick has been taken.<br />The result? <br />A goal is scored! Fabulous, you`re in trader`s paradise.<br />Nothing resulted from the attack, no great damage has been done.<br />The odds that have one minute ago dropped will now drift back to where they were.<br />You can buy back the bet you sold for pretty much the same price.<br />Of course, you don`t want to jump in the market in this way and lose out every time as those 1 or 2 losses will mount up over a ninety minute period. <br />The advice would be to use this tactic on short price favourites only<br />On the attack<br />
  6. 6. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />3<br />38`<br />If the game is 0-0 at around the 38 minute mark the price on the that score in the HT market and the Under 2.5 goals market will be roughly the same - about 1.30. <br />So, we LAY 0-0 in the HT market for £50 <br />and BACK Under 2.5 around for £250. <br />The odds on Unders from 38 mins to HT will drop 10 ticks.<br />Dangers: If a goal goes in in say 43rd minute the odds will shoot from 1.30 to 1.75, so using a £250 stake we will be red £65 but win £50 on laying the 0-0 score. <br />Of course we have half time break in which the odds will fall further in our favour.<br />12<br />3<br />9<br />6<br />
  7. 7. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />4<br />Half Time whistle<br />If the game is still 0-0 at HT and it looks to be a pretty drab affair, then backing that score at HT with a view to laying 15 mins later can produce some small, yet easy profits.<br />To maximise your profit as much as you can, back the 0-0 as many mins/seconds as your thumping heart will allow before the first half is over thereby securing the best odds possible.<br />It is not uncommon to see 0-0 trading @ 4.0 with the referee poised to blow his whistle and 15 minutes later as the teams come out for the second half, that price is now 3.55. A nine tick drop which if you had backed for £100 @ 4.0 and then layed @ 3.55 for £113 would give you a payout of roughly £1 per minute.<br />Nice work f you can get it!<br />
  8. 8. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />5<br />Under/Over 2.5 goals<br />Here is a pre-match trend on under 2.5 goals market that can often appearLook for a falling market (for instance 1.93 to 1.81) about 30 mins before kick-off. BACK as high as you can20-25 mins later people who backed high start greening up.<br />Then LAY for twice your back stake.2-3 mins before kick-off, or when you believe the price has reached it's peak BACK again with your initial stake<br />At kick-off you hedge.<br />
  9. 9. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />6<br />Under/Over 2.5 goals Pt 2<br />BACK Under 2.5 goals after a goal isscored. Crazy, huh?<br />Not reallywhenyouconsiderthat in the Premiership, 75% of all goals scoredoccurbetween 30 – 90 minutes<br />Trythistactic if youexpect an early goal or if youbelieve the price on Undersistoolow. <br />After the goal has been scored let the marketreform and wait a few minutes to avoidthose quick equalizers. Thentry to ride the decrease in odds for a 15-20% profit, get out and hedge.<br />
  10. 10. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />7<br />Taking the Poisson<br />Perhaps some of you wondered how the market reacts to a goal and how the new odds are set up after the suspension is lifted. <br />You have noticed those hectic backs and lays flying around for <br />20-30 seconds until the market settles. <br />The question is how can we extract some profit from that situation?<br />There are two restrictions though:<br /><ul><li> You can fairly safely apply this formula to goals scored between 5 and 50 minutes into the game.
  11. 11. Only apply this to the favorite team.</li></ul> <br /> ............continue<br />
  12. 12. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />7<br />Taking the Poisson<br />Here is an example from an Italian Serie A game between Siena and Napoli.<br />Siena started the game trading at 2.40 and in the 11th minute they scored. <br />What next? The market settles in such a way that you get paid roughly 3 times less if you back a team after they scored.<br />Therefore the new odds for Siena to win the game should be (2.40-1)/3 +1 = 1.47, or British odds divided by 3.<br />What we do after the suspension is lifted is immediately place a back bet at the new odds (1.47) +5~10 ticks and a lay bet at 1.47 -5~10 ticks and wait for a few seconds. Usually at least one of the bets, or some of them, get matched and then we close our position at the expected odds of 1.47. The whole process should take 10-20 seconds.<br />  ………..continue<br />
  13. 13. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />7<br />Taking the Poisson<br />BACK @ 1.53 €266<br />LAY @ 1.47 €277<br />PROFIT €10.40<br />
  14. 14. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />8<br />65`<br />The 65 minute frenzy as the sharks and fish really begin to scrap it out<br />Just follow the markets, especially the current score, U/O goals and Match Odds.<br />The tick rate drop decreases by double its previous rate<br />  <br />12<br />3<br />9<br />6<br />
  15. 15. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />9<br />Only costs a pound<br />If you`re becoming frustrated being caught out by those last minute goals that put the scuppers on your trade, then think about<br />the expediency of spending just £1.....with the chance to win £10<br />Yep, you know all those big hitters who lump on the 1.1 odds as the clock ticks down slowly (more slowly at Old Trafford it seems), well, they need layers to take their bets. Why not oblige them?<br />  <br />
  16. 16. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />10<br />2-0 & Heavy fav<br />In the Correct Score market, the odds on all 17 scorelines change according to the events on the pitch....and to some extent if there is enough money to force prices one way or the other (keep your eye out for unusual liquidity patterns that occur when there is clearly something “corrupt” going on – without wishing to cause any diplomatic incident here, a few matches from the Bulgarian league come to mind)<br />When there is a heavy favourite in the Match Odds market - < 1.6 – the odds on 2-0 particularly fall quite quickly after KO. With a sizeable bank (& your cojones are roughly the same dimensions) then backing this score early and exiting 15 mins into the match can be profitable<br />  <br />
  17. 17. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />11<br />Value anyone?<br />Much is said and talked about “value” in betting circles. Most of it is hot air, frankly. A 50/1 isn`t value just because the odds are so long. Often a 50/1 should actually be closer to 100/1.<br />Value is also in the eye of the beholder – one person`s subjective opinion against another.<br />Value can be found when clearly the odds complier has got it wrong. Doesn`t occur that often but the guy is working out percentages for his living 8 hours a day and.....well, mistakes can happen.<br />No, the value we`re talking about here is when the market pushes a price above or below its proper market value. <br />A classic case of this is what one could call the patriotic bet. Watch out for the World Cup or Euro Championships and back England in the morning of their fixture later that day. As the late “patriotic” money comes piling in to back the Three Lions, you are left with an easy lay and an easy profit<br />  <br />
  18. 18. The Nugget<br />Green Book<br />12<br />Lie back and think of a Nugget<br />If you got this far in reading the book, now it`s your turn.<br />Believing the best form of education is by encouraging the student to use his own imagination, we ask you to come up with your own football trading strategy .<br />Being the thoroughly decent chaps we are, a prize will be offered for what is, in our opinion, to be the most ingenious tactic submitted<br />The Prize?<br />Well, an evening out with our secretary Doreen at a kebab restaurant of your choice. Marvellous<br />  <br />

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