Domestic tourism trends and implications over the next decade
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This document outlines trends that are likely to impact domestic leisure tourism in the UK over the next decade. It identifies trends in demographics, economics, consumer behavior, technology, and tourism. Key trends include an aging society, economic stagnation, increased importance of leisure spending, and a shift towards active and skills-based tourism. Businesses are advised to consider these trends to successfully adapt to emerging consumer demands and priorities over the coming years.
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Domestic tourism trends and implications over the next decade
- 1. Domestic Leisure Tourism Trends: The Next Decade Paul Flatters, Chief Executive, Trajectory Partnership
- 2. Project objectives • Overall, identify the trends, influences and behaviours that are likely to impact domestic leisure tourism in the next decade • Explore the extent to which some changes seen in recent years are a short-term response to the economic environment rather than a more permanent shift • What are the implications of the emerging trends for different industry sectors, destination and business types • Identify how businesses can respond to / take advantage of these emerging trends to be more successful in future? • Enable VE to advise businesses about trends and market developments that will affect their future performance
- 5. The Demographic Trends Ageing society Increasing numbers of older people Vertical family Families with more, smaller generations Baby boom Spike in the birth rate Untraditional families Divorces, step-families, gay parents Changing ethnic profile Larger proportion of BME in the UK Squeezed middle generation Decreasing numbers of 35-49 year olds Multispeed demography Sharply varying regional trends
- 6. The ‘Squeezed Middle’ Generation UK population change 2013-2020 Under 18s +10% 18-34s +1.2% 35-49s -3.4% 50-64s +10.5% 65-79s +11.2% 80+ +19.2% Source: ONS Population prospects More younger people Fewer ‘squeezed middle’ More older people
- 7. The Economic Trends Economic stagnation Modest growth over next 5 years Complicated downturn Income, financial habits and life events Consumer confidence Expectations and willingness to buy Funding climate Tough climate in private and public sector Discretionary thrift Saving when they don’t need to Mercurial consumption Less loyalty to brands Value hunters Value for money absolutely central Self preservation society Looking out for yourself – less altruism
- 8. The sheer duration of the UK downturn is unprecedented…. 2.0% Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Q3 2015! -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% 80s recession 90s recession -8.0% Great Depression Current downturn OBR Forecasts -9.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 ……and so the long-term impact on consumer attitudes and behaviours is as yet unknown Source: ONS
- 9. Discretionary Thrift 80% 70% 69% 66% • Consumers are looking to cut back across all areas of spending – even when they don’t strictly need to • ‘I like to find bargains, even when I don’t need to save the money’ Consumers are employing a range of money saving strategies – from vouchers to comparing prices 71% 60% 50% “This is habit forming, rather than just a blip. For younger people, a significant proportion of their life has been spent in this climate it’s seen as weird to pay over the odds” Gavin Flynn, IHG 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18-34 35-54 Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 55+
- 10. The Consumer Trends Play society Increasing importance of leisure Demand for control High levels of control lead to greater satisfaction Demand for simplicity Access to information creates complexity Time poverty & work-life balance Busier lives creates perception of time pressure Individualocracy Desire for curated, bespoke activities Cultural capital Ostentatious spending fallen out of favour Decline of deference New sources of information CSR: from green to clean Changing ethical priorities
- 11. The Play Society Household final consumption expenditure Spending on recreation and culture as a % of all spending 25000 225000 23000 220000 21000 215000 19000 210000 17000 205000 15000 Source: ONS, Consumer Spending 2012 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 2005 Q1 2005 Q3 2006 Q1 2006 Q3 2007 Q1 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 27000 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 Household final consumption expenditure (£million) 230000 Recreation and culture spending (£milllion) Spending on recreation and culture
- 12. The Tourism Trends VFR leisure Turning family visits into leisure breaks Active tourism Desire to be active and healthy Skills tourism Driven by cultural capital and desire to acquire new skills Health tourism Driven by increased pressures at work and home Rural tourism Threatened by increasing urbanisation Seaside tourism Perceived as in decline Urban tourism Significant growth area
- 13. And finally…..the future of the Staycation • Economic conditions that boosted the staycation will largely remain in place into the medium term • Industry experts split on longer term prospects: – Some predict a prompt return to sunnier climates – Others feel we have ‘discovered’ England • We believe that England will retain a place in wider holiday port – value for time a key part of staycation’s appeal
- 14. Time for you to join the debate: Online think tank runs from 6th December Go to: www.visitenglandtrends.com Paul Flatters Chief Executive Trajectory Ltd Enterprise House 1-2 Hatfields London SE1 9PG T 020 3567 5801 #TrajectoryTweet paul@trajectorypartnership.com www.trajectorypartnership.com