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1
Financial Protection Strategies
and the Role of CCRIF SPC
Seminar for Caribbean Development Bank
February 8 2018
Structure of Seminar
Understanding
Ex-Ante
Financing
Instruments
A Closer Look at
Catastrophe Risk
Insurance – The
Case of CCRIF
SPC
CCRIF’s
Parametric
Policies
Adequacy of
Coverage
Lessons
Learned
Scaling up
2
Impacts of natural hazards on the Caribbean and Central
America
3
• The frequency of
hazards and disasters is
increasing
• Mortality resulting
from disasters seems to
be decreasing
• Economic costs of
disasters are rising
precipitously
Linking Fiscal Policies with DRM
• Natural disasters and financial crises are typically exogenous events that represent
covariate shocks across a country and households
• Economic damages from natural hazards can jeopardize the health of national
economies at a level comparable to or greater than that of financial crises
• Natural disasters also destroy human and physical capital stocks of countries –
something that financial crises do not
4
Disaster Risk Management Strategies
5
Ex-Ante
Ex-ante risk financing instruments require
proactive advance planning and really
involves investing in national catastrophe
risk management prior to a natural disaster
occurring.
Ex-post strategies provide emergency
response, rescue and emergency relief
services in the aftermath of natural
disasters and really is an example of a pure
public good.
Ex-Post
Ex-post instruments are sources
that do not require advance
planning.
These instruments include budget
reallocation, domestic credit,
external credit, tax increase, and
donor assistance.
Disaster risk management strategies include risk reduction by
increasing investment in mitigation and prevention – commonly
referred to as disaster preparedness – but also include a series of
alternative instruments for loss financing – commonly referred to as
risk financing instruments
6
Integrated Disaster Risk Financing Strategies
Governments need to be encouraged to develop, make provision for, or
participate in integrated disaster risk financing strategies, as part of their
overall risk management strategy
Examples of Ex-Ante Financing
Instruments
ExamplesofEx-Ante
Instruments
Dedicated reserve fund
Contingent credit facility
Traditional Insurance
Catastrophe bond, other catastrophe-linked
instruments / alternative risk transfer
instrument
7
Reasons for Pursuing Ex-Ante Financing
Instruments
Three
reasons
govern-
ments
should
pursue
ex-ante
financing
strategies
Governments are typically responsible for large portfolios of public
infrastructure assets subject to risk
To guarantee sufficient capital for emergency relief and assistance to
affected households, businesses and communities. If governments
lack the necessary infusion of post-disaster capital to rebuild critical
infrastructure, restore homes and provide humanitarian assistance,
indirect costs can greatly surpass the direct losses of a disaster
Developing countries have a higher propensity for post-disaster
resource deficits. Governments of developing countries typically
must divert from their budgets or from already disbursed
development loans to finance post-disaster expenses, also relying on
new loans and donations from the international community
8
How CCRIF Got Started
Prompted by Hurricane Ivan and request for assistance
by Caribbean governments made to the World Bank
The world’s first multi-country risk pool providing
parametric insurance
Originally designed to limit the financial impact of
catastrophic hurricanes and earthquakes
Provides short-term funding to support relief in the
immediate aftermath of a natural disaster
9
10
36 payouts
totalling US$130.5 million to
13 member governments
In 2014, the facility was restructured into a segregated portfolio company (SPC) to
facilitate offering new products and expansion into new geographic areas and is now
named CCRIF SPC.
By establishing segregated portfolios, CCRIF is able to prevent the cross-subsidization
of risk from one region to another, ensuring that each region’s risk will be based on
the particular risk profiles of the countries in that region.
In April 2015, CCRIF signed an MOU with COSEFIN to enable Central American
countries to formally join the facility. Nicaragua is first Central American member.
Expansion of CCRIF
Demystifying CCRIF
• CCRIF is not intended to be a complete and comprehensive disaster
management strategy – it is not a silver bullet
• Since inception in 2007, CCRIF has made payouts totaling US$130.5 million
to 13 member governments – all made within 14 days of the event. These
monies usually represent the first injection of liquidity to countries
• For Tropical Cyclones Irma and Maria - CCRIF made payments totalling US$55
million to 10 member governments
• Payments are small compared to the overwhelming cost of rebuilding, but
the rapid infusion of liquidity can address immediate priorities, including
humanitarian needs
• CCRIF was not designed to cover all the losses on the ground – but rather
to allow governments to reduce their budget volatility and to guarantee
sufficient capital for emergency relief thereby reducing post-disaster
resource deficits
12
Climate Risk Insurance and Potential for Effective
Protection to Vulnerable Countries
• Over the last 10 years CCRIF demonstrated that disaster risk insurance
can effectively provide a level of financial protection for countries
vulnerable to tropical cyclones, earthquakes and excess rainfall
• G-7 commented that CCRIF will be effective in increasing the number
of people with access to direct or indirect climate risk insurance
coverage by up to 400 million by 2020
• Governments must consider the inclusion of disaster risk in fiscal
policy as a means of financial protection against events that cannot be
prevented
• CCRIF allows countries to increase their financial response capacity
in the aftermath of disasters and reduce their economic and fiscal
burden 13
Disaster Risk Financing
14
Governments should build a financial protection strategy that
combines a number of instruments that address different layers or
types of risk. Such a strategy incorporates budget allocations and
reserves, contingent credit, and risk transfer instruments.
CCRIF’s Parametric Policies
15
CCRIF Parametric Insurance Products
16
CCRIF Products
Tropical Cyclone
Earthquake
Excess Rainfall
TC and EQ available since
2007
XSR available since 2013
Parametric vs Indemnity Insurance
17
Parametric Insurance Indemnity Insurance
Lower Premiums Transaction and administrative costs are significantly
lower
Costs of assessing claims is
added to the premium
Faster Payouts Provides payments based on a pre-defined level of
hazard and impact
Need for on-the-ground
assessment adds lag time –
months or even years – to
payment
Objective &
Transparent
Allows the policyholder direct access to information
on which the payouts will be calculated.
Calculation of payouts is totally objective, based on a
few simple input parameters published widely in the
public domain from the globally-mandated bodies
responsible for estimating those particular parameters,
and a set of formulae which form part of the policy.
Opinions on level of loss can vary
by loss adjuster.
Also, traditional indemnity
insurance customarily has various
conditions, exclusions and
limitations that may introduce
uncertainty and delay for an insured
making a claim.
Uniformly Defined
Risk
All risk – which drives policy pricing – is defined using
the same specified parameters
There is often some
subjectivity in the definition of the
risk.
Reduction in Moral
Hazard
The cost of insurance can be immediately related to
the probability of an event, and the payout is
independent of any mitigation efforts put in place after
the policy is issued.
Policyholders may engage in
riskier actions if they have
purchased a policy against an
event.
Simplified Claims
Claims process is reversed. The insurer informs
policyholder of payment. Governments do not have to
provide detailed asset values and other information prior
Making a claim is a tedious
process and can often take
New Products being Developed
• CCRIF is working towards bringing at least three new products
to market based on stakeholder needs:
• Drought Product – for 2017/2018 policy year
• Product for the Fisheries Sector - COAST
• Agriculture Product
18
Drought Fisheries Agriculture
Microinsurance Products
• Coverage against high winds and heavy
rainfall for low-income individuals
• Available from local insurance companies
Livelihood Protection Policy (LPP)
• Protection against default for lender
institutions
Loan Portfolio Cover (LPC)
Implementing products that combine risk reduction and insurance
for low-income groups such as small-scale farmers and day
labourers
How CCRIF Policies Work
Parametric
insurance
disburses
funds
based on
the
occurrence
of a pre-
defined
level of
hazard and
impact
Policy triggered on the basis of exceeding a pre-
established trigger event loss
Estimated based on wind speed and storm surge
(tropical cyclones) or ground shaking
(earthquakes) or volume of rainfall (excess rainfall)
Hazard levels applied to pre-defined government
exposure to produce a loss estimate
Payout amounts increase with the level of
modelled loss, up to a pre-defined coverage limit
20
A note on the TC and XSR Products
21
The TC product is linked to wind and storm surge
damage in a defined tropical cyclone. Rainfall is not
covered by TC policies.
The XSR product is linked to damage from rainfall and
an XSR policy can be triggered due to a tropical cyclone
or to non-cyclonic systems such as trough systems.
The TC and XSR products operate independently and if
both policies are triggered by a given tropical cyclone
then payouts on both policies would be due.
22
The CCRIF models
Hazard
Module
Exposure
Module
Vulnerability
Module Loss Module
Each model includes four modules that collectively produce the
modelled loss for a given hazard event for a country with a particular
risk profile.
The modelled loss for a given hazard event is used in the Insurance
Module to determine the potential for a policy payout.
23
Elements of CCRIF Policies
CCRIF policy
premiums depend
on the selection by
Governments of 3
elements:
• Attachment Point
• Ceding
Percentage
• Exhaustion Point
These are informed
by the country’s risk
profiles
24
Elements of CCRIF Policies and Premium Costs
Original Policy
Scenario
Change in
Attachment Point
Change in
Exhaustion Point
Change in
Ceding Percentage
Attachment
Point ($) $120,158,789 $169,416,559 $120,158,789 $120,158,789
Attachment
Point (yrs) 10 15 10 10
Exhaustion
Point ($) $1,032,458,571 $1,032,458,571 $1,449,365,357 $1,032,458,571
Exhaustion
Point (yrs) 100 100 150 100
Ceding
Percentage 50% 50% 50% 75%
Coverage limit
(Maximum
payout) ($)
$456,149,891 $431,521,006 $664,603,284 $684,224,837
Premium ($) $713,391 $617,772 $841,498 $1,070,087
Is CCRIF Effective?
• CCRIF members consistently indicate that these rapid payouts
are an invaluable benefit of membership. Almost immediately
after an event, CCRIF is able to inform countries if their policies
were triggered and if so, the approximate payout amount
• This is a clear illustration that the parametric models work and
are fit for purpose
• A key concern - “Adequate” coverage level is about 25% of the
overall government exposure to earthquake and hurricane risk.
CCRIF believes that this is the level at which CCRIF coverage
would play its most effective role within an overall sovereign risk
management framework. Most countries in the region are well
below “adequate”, and a substantial increase in coverage levels
would be justified in many cases.
25
Is CCRIF Affordable and Sustainable?
• Cost of CCRIF coverage is a primary benefit to members. CCRIF aggregates
disaster risks across regions and keeps that risk segregated, achieving the
kind of risk diversification and spreading that its members are not able to
attain on their own. Studies undertaken by the World Bank illustrates that
insurance obtained through CCRIF could be as low as half the cost of
coverage a member country could obtain on its own
• Is it feasible for countries to self-insure? No. Why? The ability of countries
to effect financial risk transfer through affordable catastrophe insurance
in traditional international insurance and reinsurance markets is limited
by the high transaction costs that result from the limited volume of
business they could bring to these markets; high levels of government debt
will constrain access to credit in international capital markets and
domestic capital markets lack sufficient depth to meet country needs
following a catastrophe
• CCRIF is sustainable – and advancing sustainability will require
• development partners and donor support
• expansion –of product offerings, increasing membership in existing regions that
we work in and expanding CCRIF to new regions of the world
• scaling up coverage
26
Guidelines
Governing
the Use of
Payouts
• Currently, CCRIF policies with governments do not
stipulate what payouts provided to countries are to be
used for
• We know that our member governments employ a
range of governance principles in the management of
their economies – and as autonomous sovereign nations
– CCRIF believes that the governments are best able to
assess their priorities and determine how resources
from a payout are to be utilized
• However, we are currently working with the World
Bank to develop simple templates for countries to
report on use of payouts and how impacted
populations have benefitted
• We also believe that stakeholders’ interests must be
represented. For example, it is important that in the
spirit of transparency and accountability, financial
reports that document use of funds be provided to
donors and beneficiary governments, as contributions
are ultimately provided by taxpayers
Uses of CCRIF Payouts – Some Examples
28Source: Implementation Completion and Results Report of CCRIF, World Bank
TCI Temporary feeding stations for displaced
and other affected persons
Haiti Immediate reconstruction and
stabilization of government processes
and provision of civilian security
Anguilla Clearing of debris, repairing general
damage, capitalizing a special recovery
fund and purchasing upgraded weather
monitoring data-capture technology and
portable weather systems to improve
early warning
Barbados Recovery efforts under direction of the
environmental management agency and
emergency repairs of key infrastructure,
including a major road along the port
Uses of CCRIF Payouts – 2- Some
Exmaples
29
Saint Lucia Capital expenditures, e.g., clearing silty rivers,
unblocking major roads, stabilizing drinking
water plants, and repair of a key government
building
St. Vincent &
the Grenadines
Acquiring building and other materials for
persons whose homes or crops had been
damaged
Dominica Immediate repairs and recovery
Belize Immediate clean-up and recovery based on a
Damage Assessment and Needs Assessment
(DANA) Report
TCI (Irma and
Maria)
Repairs to 14 schools
Haiti
(Matthew)
1.4 million persons assisted including
medicines for children, repairs of roofs and
homes (with 50% of payout)
On New Ex-Ante Risk Financing Instruments and New
Parametric Products
• CCRIF recognizes that catastrophe risk insurance is only one item on a menu
of ex-ante policy instruments and been investigating other ex-ante financing
instruments including dedicated reserve funds, contingent credit facilities
and catastrophe bonds
• This policy year we introduced the Aggregate Deductible Cover which is
intended to operate as a dedicated reserve fund
• CCRIF will bring two new products to market in 2018 – drought and fisheries.
This will be followed by agriculture based on demand from members
• Potential for products in utilities – water and wastewater and electricity for
similar products
• Bringing new products to market cannot be based solely on demand but
will require support from the donor community
30
Adequacy of Coverage
31
Coverage Limits for CCRIF members - EQ
• The overall coverage limit for the portfolio increased by US$148m from 2007/08
to the current policy year.
• Trinidad and Tobago has continually held the majority of the portfolio with a
coverage limit over US$90m for the last 10 years.
• Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago are the only countries to have purchased
policies with a coverage limit over $22m. The earthquake portfolio is weighted by
these two policies.
• For the 10-year period, 6 countries have purchased coverage over US$10m.
• Barbados, Haiti Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago have increased
earthquake coverage over this period.
• The Turks and Caicos Islands discontinued coverage in 2009 and Belize
discontinued in 2016.
• The Bahamas and Bermuda have never purchased coverage for this peril.
The coverage limit is the maximum payout under the policy
Coverage Limits for CCRIF members - TC
• The overall coverage limit has increased by US$3.8m from 2007 to the current
policy year.
• From inception of CCRIF coverage, Jamaica has continually purchased the
majority. Currently, Jamaica accounts for 20% of the total tropical cyclone
coverage purchased.
• 13 countries maintained a coverage limit below US$40m.
• Two countries have increased significantly since inception: Jamaica has increased
coverage by US$24.6m and Barbados by US$18.7m.
• Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis and St. Vincent and the
Grenadines have steadily increased coverage over 11 years while maintaining
coverage limits under US$11m.
• The Cayman Islands, Dominica and Trinidad and Tobago have decreased coverage
over the years, with the Cayman Islands showing a downward trend.
• Belize and Bermuda have discontinued tropical cyclone coverage and The
Bahamas interrupted its TC coverage when it did not purchase policies for
2014/15 and 2016/17.
Coverage Limits for CCRIF members - XSR
• CCRIF launched the Excess Rainfall product in 2014/15
• 8 countries purchased coverage for this peril in the first year
• Currently 13 countries have excess rainfall policies enforced.
• The overall coverage limit for the portfolio increased by US$68.6m from 2014/15
to the current policy year.
• Jamaica has the highest coverage limit in 2017/18 of US$34m.
• All countries except Haiti, Jamaica and Trinidad have maintained a coverage limit
under US$12m.
• Barbados, Jamaica and Haiti have increased coverage for each policy year.
• Within this period, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize and the Cayman Islands have
discontinued XSR polices for at least one policy year.
Examination of Ceding Percentages
Members should have a ceding percentage of at least 25% on each of their policies
• In general – there has been an upward trend in the ceding percentage values for
each country and each product between 2007/08 (2014/15 for XSR) and 2016/17
• The only country that has a ceding percentage that meets the “adequate
coverage” level for all its 2017/2018 policies is Barbados.
• The peril that is at the least “adequate” level of coverage is excess rainfall.
The ceding percentage is the fraction of risk transferred to CCRIF
Examination of Ceding Percentages - 2
Country 2017/18 CCRIF Policy with Ceding Percentage
at least 25%
EQ TC XSR
Anguilla Y N Y
Antigua & Barbuda N (24%) N NP
Barbados Y Y Y
Belize NP NP N
Cayman Islands Y N NP
Dominica N N N
Grenada Y Y N
Haiti Y N N
Jamaica Y N N
St. Kitts & Nevis Y N N
Saint Lucia Y Y N
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Y Y N
The Bahamas N/A N N
Trinidad & Tobago N Y Y
Turks & Caicos Islands N/A Y N
N/A – not
applicable; this
policy not
recommended
based on country’s
risk profile
NP – No policy
purchased
although it is
recommended
Examination of Ceding Percentages - 3
• For 2017/18 policy year, Saint Lucia has the highest ceding percentage for each policy (at
97.5% for EQ, %97.6 for TC and 11.8% for XSR).
• This country has increased the percentages for TC and EQ significantly since the 2007/08
policy year by selecting different attachment and exhaustion points, the premium costs for
2017/18 TC and EQ policies have remained less than twice those in 2007/08.
• Belize shows a country changing the composition of its catastrophe insurance portfolio.
Belize had greatly increased its ceding percentage for EQ between the 2010/11 and
2013/14 policy years (2.3% and 86.5%, respectively) but then discontinued its EQ policy
and explored different options for its TC and XSR policies, purchasing only XSR for the
most recent year – 2017/18.
• Based on requests from certain member countries, excess rainfall policies have been
developed for sub-national units. The Bahamas is divided into 4 zones for XSR coverage.
The ceding percentages for all 4 policies range from 1.7% (extreme north) to 88.4%
(southeast). The southeast XSR policy was triggered by Hurricane Irma in September 2017.
38
39
40
Factors that determine coverage levels
• Level of resources available within the national budget
• Uncertainty about appropriate or best level of coverage
• Level of discounts or special incentives provided by CCRIF
• Need for enhanced understanding among governments of
different risk financing instruments and the best way of applying
each to maximize benefits to countries (e.g. parametric insurance
such as CCRIF and CAT DDOs must be seen as complimentary
instruments)
Decisions regarding coverage levels are based on:
Understanding the role of country risk
profiles
AIM
 Provide information to the Country Risk Managers with simplicity, accuracy and
robustness about the demographical, geological, economic characteristics of their
territories.
 Assess the impact of historical losses which may have caused damages, both to
the infrastructure, population and economics.
 Illustrate and facilitate the risk transfer decisions.
 Help decision-making process, but not substitute it. A country risk manager has
to decide what is best for the country, given the combination of exposure to risk,
risk proneness and also considering budgeting restrictions.
CONTENT
 Hazard Profile
 Exposure Profile
 Risk Profile
 Most severe historical events and their estimated economical loss
Link between Country Risk Profiles and
Country Policy Characteristics
43
The aim of the country risk profiles is to provide information to the Country Risk
Managers with simplicity, accuracy and robustness about the demographic,
geological, economic characteristics of their territories. It also assesses the impact of
historical losses which may have caused damages, both to the infrastructure,
population and economics.
The document also indicates the likely economical losses the country may confront
whether such historical and probabilistic scenarios should occur. It is not a substitute
for the decision making process, it is properly an instrument to illustrate and
facilitate the risk transfer decisions. At the end of the day, a country risk manager has
to decide what is best for the country, given the combination of exposure to risk, risk
proneness and also considering budgeting restrictions.
The country risk profile will provide particularly the three most severe historical
scenarios and their estimated economical loss, so a country risk manager can have at
least a range of amounts by peril to help make the decision.
Lessons Learned from CCRIF’s 10 years
44
Lessons Learned
over the 10 years
2007 - 2017
46
Lessons Learned
Much of the success of CCRIF has
not been by chance. We have
based our operation on learning
lessons and on a culture of
continuous improvement as well
as projecting needs and
recognizing the dynamic and
ever-changing global
environment of which we are
part. There have been many
lessons learned that countries,
organizations and donors should
take into account in pursuance of
a similar facility. I will share the
main lessons with you.
Lessons Learned over the 10 years
2007 – 2017
• Risk pooling
• Providing discounts and bundling products when possible bearing
in mind fiscal constraints of members
Keeping premiums low
• Developing new products
• Providing preferable policy options (e.g. lower attachment points)
due to expectations of payouts
Being flexible and responsive to members’ needs
• Leads to informed decision making
Increasing understanding of CCRIF products
• Frequent interaction
• Sourcing funding for new products
• Premium Support for most disadvantaged countries
Engagement with donors
47
Lessons Learned over the 10 years
2007 – 2017
Consultations aid project
development and underpin
continuous improvement
Donor support is invaluable
Success depends heavily on
the relevant knowledge and
experience of decision
makers
Stakeholders’ interests
must be represented
Stakeholder engagement is
a continuing objective
Minimize non-essential
bureaucracy to lower
overhead costs and product
price
Third-party monitoring and
evaluation can help to
broaden or streamline
organizational focus as
necessary
Know your limitations
Building capacity through
training, technical
assistance programmes to
enhance understanding of
CCRIF, DRM and risk
transfer in general
Final Words on
Lessons Learned
• Financial mechanisms such as CCRIF must not
be seen as a panacea but rather a
complementary tool in addressing the much
broader issue of disaster management within
the state.
• An important theme in the sustainability of
such an innovative tool for risk management is
the avoidance of complacency and stagnation.
Constant communication, accountability,
evaluation and evolution are necessary to
maintain the relevance and reliability of the
mechanism. Decision makers must remain
creative in their desire to grow and expand the
worth of the tool to stakeholders while
remembering its initial mission and purpose.
49
Scaling up of CCRIF
50
51
A Snapshot of a Scaled-up CCRIF – Key Strategies and
Instruments for Expanding Scope – to 2030
Products
• TC
• EQ
• XSR
• Drought
• Agriculture
• Tourism
• Tsunamis
• Public Utilities
including
telecommunications
and water and
wastewater
Services
• Increasing coverage
of members
• Direct insurance to
individuals and
institutions
• Vehicle to access
donor resources to
support CCA in
member countries
• Supports
vulnerability
assessmetns and
the development
of building codes in
member countries
• Expand economics
of climate
adaptation study
Members
• Caribbean
• All CDB BMCs
• Central America
• British and Dutch
Overseas Territories
• South America
• Caribbean Basin to
include Guyana,
Suriname, Colombia
CCRIF - The
Organiation
• Increased capacity
for R & D - models,
market research,
new products
• Expanded technical
experts and service
providers in
organization
• Expanded CCRIF
Secretariat
Based on the findings of A Study of Scaling-UP CCRIF undertaken in January/February
2018 and recommendations from stakeholders, the following depicts a snapshot of what
an expanded or scaled-up CCRIF could look like by 2030.
Views and
Perceptions
of Member
Governments
on Scaling Up
CCRIF
• Increase coverage levels of countries
that are below adequate
• Add to its existing products
• Add to its membership – within the
Caribbean and in Central America
• Determine how CCRIF can provide
support in-country and within
strengthening national CDM strategies
Views and
Perceptions of
Donors/Developm
ent Partners on
Scaling Up CCRIF
Increase the level of coverage within existing countries
– within the context of analyzing what the appropriate
level of coverage is for a given country. CCRIF should
help countries determine the appropriate level
Expand to cover economic sectors such as agriculture
and tourism
Expand to other countries to spread risk. Increased
membership should spread the risks more which could
lead to reduced premiums. Consider non-homogenous
pool of countries which are not all affected by the
same risks.
CCRIF needs to expand membership in Central America
which has started.
53
Views and
Perceptions of
Regional
Organizations
on Scaling Up
CCRIF
• Increase the level of coverage within
existing countries
• Expand to cover other types of events
(for example, tsunami, volcanoes,
health-related, agriculture (pests,
livestock, marine)
• Expand to other countries; spreading
risk (thus reducing risk to CCRIF) would
be good and may drive down cost of
premiums
The CCRIF Story is a powerful way to demonstrate the linkages between
country DRM strategies and risk transfer and the linkages between risk
transfer, poverty reduction and economic growth and we share the UN 2030
goals for sustainable development and the importance of “leaving no one
behind in development” – we effectively support the goals of promoting
sustainable economic growth, ensuring environmental, social and fiscal
sustainability and reducing poverty – as evidenced by CCRIF’s mission
statement: “A resilient Caribbean region and beyond with optimised
disaster risk management and climate change adaptation practices
supporting long-term sustainable development”. 55
Is it time for CCRIF+
Thank You
CCRIF SPC
pr@ccrif.org
www.ccrif.org
Follow @ ccrif_pr
CCRIF_SPC
56

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Financial Protection Strategies and the Role of CCRIF SPC

  • 1. 1 Financial Protection Strategies and the Role of CCRIF SPC Seminar for Caribbean Development Bank February 8 2018
  • 2. Structure of Seminar Understanding Ex-Ante Financing Instruments A Closer Look at Catastrophe Risk Insurance – The Case of CCRIF SPC CCRIF’s Parametric Policies Adequacy of Coverage Lessons Learned Scaling up 2
  • 3. Impacts of natural hazards on the Caribbean and Central America 3 • The frequency of hazards and disasters is increasing • Mortality resulting from disasters seems to be decreasing • Economic costs of disasters are rising precipitously
  • 4. Linking Fiscal Policies with DRM • Natural disasters and financial crises are typically exogenous events that represent covariate shocks across a country and households • Economic damages from natural hazards can jeopardize the health of national economies at a level comparable to or greater than that of financial crises • Natural disasters also destroy human and physical capital stocks of countries – something that financial crises do not 4
  • 5. Disaster Risk Management Strategies 5 Ex-Ante Ex-ante risk financing instruments require proactive advance planning and really involves investing in national catastrophe risk management prior to a natural disaster occurring. Ex-post strategies provide emergency response, rescue and emergency relief services in the aftermath of natural disasters and really is an example of a pure public good. Ex-Post Ex-post instruments are sources that do not require advance planning. These instruments include budget reallocation, domestic credit, external credit, tax increase, and donor assistance. Disaster risk management strategies include risk reduction by increasing investment in mitigation and prevention – commonly referred to as disaster preparedness – but also include a series of alternative instruments for loss financing – commonly referred to as risk financing instruments
  • 6. 6 Integrated Disaster Risk Financing Strategies Governments need to be encouraged to develop, make provision for, or participate in integrated disaster risk financing strategies, as part of their overall risk management strategy
  • 7. Examples of Ex-Ante Financing Instruments ExamplesofEx-Ante Instruments Dedicated reserve fund Contingent credit facility Traditional Insurance Catastrophe bond, other catastrophe-linked instruments / alternative risk transfer instrument 7
  • 8. Reasons for Pursuing Ex-Ante Financing Instruments Three reasons govern- ments should pursue ex-ante financing strategies Governments are typically responsible for large portfolios of public infrastructure assets subject to risk To guarantee sufficient capital for emergency relief and assistance to affected households, businesses and communities. If governments lack the necessary infusion of post-disaster capital to rebuild critical infrastructure, restore homes and provide humanitarian assistance, indirect costs can greatly surpass the direct losses of a disaster Developing countries have a higher propensity for post-disaster resource deficits. Governments of developing countries typically must divert from their budgets or from already disbursed development loans to finance post-disaster expenses, also relying on new loans and donations from the international community 8
  • 9. How CCRIF Got Started Prompted by Hurricane Ivan and request for assistance by Caribbean governments made to the World Bank The world’s first multi-country risk pool providing parametric insurance Originally designed to limit the financial impact of catastrophic hurricanes and earthquakes Provides short-term funding to support relief in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster 9
  • 10. 10 36 payouts totalling US$130.5 million to 13 member governments
  • 11. In 2014, the facility was restructured into a segregated portfolio company (SPC) to facilitate offering new products and expansion into new geographic areas and is now named CCRIF SPC. By establishing segregated portfolios, CCRIF is able to prevent the cross-subsidization of risk from one region to another, ensuring that each region’s risk will be based on the particular risk profiles of the countries in that region. In April 2015, CCRIF signed an MOU with COSEFIN to enable Central American countries to formally join the facility. Nicaragua is first Central American member. Expansion of CCRIF
  • 12. Demystifying CCRIF • CCRIF is not intended to be a complete and comprehensive disaster management strategy – it is not a silver bullet • Since inception in 2007, CCRIF has made payouts totaling US$130.5 million to 13 member governments – all made within 14 days of the event. These monies usually represent the first injection of liquidity to countries • For Tropical Cyclones Irma and Maria - CCRIF made payments totalling US$55 million to 10 member governments • Payments are small compared to the overwhelming cost of rebuilding, but the rapid infusion of liquidity can address immediate priorities, including humanitarian needs • CCRIF was not designed to cover all the losses on the ground – but rather to allow governments to reduce their budget volatility and to guarantee sufficient capital for emergency relief thereby reducing post-disaster resource deficits 12
  • 13. Climate Risk Insurance and Potential for Effective Protection to Vulnerable Countries • Over the last 10 years CCRIF demonstrated that disaster risk insurance can effectively provide a level of financial protection for countries vulnerable to tropical cyclones, earthquakes and excess rainfall • G-7 commented that CCRIF will be effective in increasing the number of people with access to direct or indirect climate risk insurance coverage by up to 400 million by 2020 • Governments must consider the inclusion of disaster risk in fiscal policy as a means of financial protection against events that cannot be prevented • CCRIF allows countries to increase their financial response capacity in the aftermath of disasters and reduce their economic and fiscal burden 13
  • 14. Disaster Risk Financing 14 Governments should build a financial protection strategy that combines a number of instruments that address different layers or types of risk. Such a strategy incorporates budget allocations and reserves, contingent credit, and risk transfer instruments.
  • 16. CCRIF Parametric Insurance Products 16 CCRIF Products Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Excess Rainfall TC and EQ available since 2007 XSR available since 2013
  • 17. Parametric vs Indemnity Insurance 17 Parametric Insurance Indemnity Insurance Lower Premiums Transaction and administrative costs are significantly lower Costs of assessing claims is added to the premium Faster Payouts Provides payments based on a pre-defined level of hazard and impact Need for on-the-ground assessment adds lag time – months or even years – to payment Objective & Transparent Allows the policyholder direct access to information on which the payouts will be calculated. Calculation of payouts is totally objective, based on a few simple input parameters published widely in the public domain from the globally-mandated bodies responsible for estimating those particular parameters, and a set of formulae which form part of the policy. Opinions on level of loss can vary by loss adjuster. Also, traditional indemnity insurance customarily has various conditions, exclusions and limitations that may introduce uncertainty and delay for an insured making a claim. Uniformly Defined Risk All risk – which drives policy pricing – is defined using the same specified parameters There is often some subjectivity in the definition of the risk. Reduction in Moral Hazard The cost of insurance can be immediately related to the probability of an event, and the payout is independent of any mitigation efforts put in place after the policy is issued. Policyholders may engage in riskier actions if they have purchased a policy against an event. Simplified Claims Claims process is reversed. The insurer informs policyholder of payment. Governments do not have to provide detailed asset values and other information prior Making a claim is a tedious process and can often take
  • 18. New Products being Developed • CCRIF is working towards bringing at least three new products to market based on stakeholder needs: • Drought Product – for 2017/2018 policy year • Product for the Fisheries Sector - COAST • Agriculture Product 18 Drought Fisheries Agriculture
  • 19. Microinsurance Products • Coverage against high winds and heavy rainfall for low-income individuals • Available from local insurance companies Livelihood Protection Policy (LPP) • Protection against default for lender institutions Loan Portfolio Cover (LPC) Implementing products that combine risk reduction and insurance for low-income groups such as small-scale farmers and day labourers
  • 20. How CCRIF Policies Work Parametric insurance disburses funds based on the occurrence of a pre- defined level of hazard and impact Policy triggered on the basis of exceeding a pre- established trigger event loss Estimated based on wind speed and storm surge (tropical cyclones) or ground shaking (earthquakes) or volume of rainfall (excess rainfall) Hazard levels applied to pre-defined government exposure to produce a loss estimate Payout amounts increase with the level of modelled loss, up to a pre-defined coverage limit 20
  • 21. A note on the TC and XSR Products 21 The TC product is linked to wind and storm surge damage in a defined tropical cyclone. Rainfall is not covered by TC policies. The XSR product is linked to damage from rainfall and an XSR policy can be triggered due to a tropical cyclone or to non-cyclonic systems such as trough systems. The TC and XSR products operate independently and if both policies are triggered by a given tropical cyclone then payouts on both policies would be due.
  • 22. 22 The CCRIF models Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Loss Module Each model includes four modules that collectively produce the modelled loss for a given hazard event for a country with a particular risk profile. The modelled loss for a given hazard event is used in the Insurance Module to determine the potential for a policy payout.
  • 23. 23 Elements of CCRIF Policies CCRIF policy premiums depend on the selection by Governments of 3 elements: • Attachment Point • Ceding Percentage • Exhaustion Point These are informed by the country’s risk profiles
  • 24. 24 Elements of CCRIF Policies and Premium Costs Original Policy Scenario Change in Attachment Point Change in Exhaustion Point Change in Ceding Percentage Attachment Point ($) $120,158,789 $169,416,559 $120,158,789 $120,158,789 Attachment Point (yrs) 10 15 10 10 Exhaustion Point ($) $1,032,458,571 $1,032,458,571 $1,449,365,357 $1,032,458,571 Exhaustion Point (yrs) 100 100 150 100 Ceding Percentage 50% 50% 50% 75% Coverage limit (Maximum payout) ($) $456,149,891 $431,521,006 $664,603,284 $684,224,837 Premium ($) $713,391 $617,772 $841,498 $1,070,087
  • 25. Is CCRIF Effective? • CCRIF members consistently indicate that these rapid payouts are an invaluable benefit of membership. Almost immediately after an event, CCRIF is able to inform countries if their policies were triggered and if so, the approximate payout amount • This is a clear illustration that the parametric models work and are fit for purpose • A key concern - “Adequate” coverage level is about 25% of the overall government exposure to earthquake and hurricane risk. CCRIF believes that this is the level at which CCRIF coverage would play its most effective role within an overall sovereign risk management framework. Most countries in the region are well below “adequate”, and a substantial increase in coverage levels would be justified in many cases. 25
  • 26. Is CCRIF Affordable and Sustainable? • Cost of CCRIF coverage is a primary benefit to members. CCRIF aggregates disaster risks across regions and keeps that risk segregated, achieving the kind of risk diversification and spreading that its members are not able to attain on their own. Studies undertaken by the World Bank illustrates that insurance obtained through CCRIF could be as low as half the cost of coverage a member country could obtain on its own • Is it feasible for countries to self-insure? No. Why? The ability of countries to effect financial risk transfer through affordable catastrophe insurance in traditional international insurance and reinsurance markets is limited by the high transaction costs that result from the limited volume of business they could bring to these markets; high levels of government debt will constrain access to credit in international capital markets and domestic capital markets lack sufficient depth to meet country needs following a catastrophe • CCRIF is sustainable – and advancing sustainability will require • development partners and donor support • expansion –of product offerings, increasing membership in existing regions that we work in and expanding CCRIF to new regions of the world • scaling up coverage 26
  • 27. Guidelines Governing the Use of Payouts • Currently, CCRIF policies with governments do not stipulate what payouts provided to countries are to be used for • We know that our member governments employ a range of governance principles in the management of their economies – and as autonomous sovereign nations – CCRIF believes that the governments are best able to assess their priorities and determine how resources from a payout are to be utilized • However, we are currently working with the World Bank to develop simple templates for countries to report on use of payouts and how impacted populations have benefitted • We also believe that stakeholders’ interests must be represented. For example, it is important that in the spirit of transparency and accountability, financial reports that document use of funds be provided to donors and beneficiary governments, as contributions are ultimately provided by taxpayers
  • 28. Uses of CCRIF Payouts – Some Examples 28Source: Implementation Completion and Results Report of CCRIF, World Bank TCI Temporary feeding stations for displaced and other affected persons Haiti Immediate reconstruction and stabilization of government processes and provision of civilian security Anguilla Clearing of debris, repairing general damage, capitalizing a special recovery fund and purchasing upgraded weather monitoring data-capture technology and portable weather systems to improve early warning Barbados Recovery efforts under direction of the environmental management agency and emergency repairs of key infrastructure, including a major road along the port
  • 29. Uses of CCRIF Payouts – 2- Some Exmaples 29 Saint Lucia Capital expenditures, e.g., clearing silty rivers, unblocking major roads, stabilizing drinking water plants, and repair of a key government building St. Vincent & the Grenadines Acquiring building and other materials for persons whose homes or crops had been damaged Dominica Immediate repairs and recovery Belize Immediate clean-up and recovery based on a Damage Assessment and Needs Assessment (DANA) Report TCI (Irma and Maria) Repairs to 14 schools Haiti (Matthew) 1.4 million persons assisted including medicines for children, repairs of roofs and homes (with 50% of payout)
  • 30. On New Ex-Ante Risk Financing Instruments and New Parametric Products • CCRIF recognizes that catastrophe risk insurance is only one item on a menu of ex-ante policy instruments and been investigating other ex-ante financing instruments including dedicated reserve funds, contingent credit facilities and catastrophe bonds • This policy year we introduced the Aggregate Deductible Cover which is intended to operate as a dedicated reserve fund • CCRIF will bring two new products to market in 2018 – drought and fisheries. This will be followed by agriculture based on demand from members • Potential for products in utilities – water and wastewater and electricity for similar products • Bringing new products to market cannot be based solely on demand but will require support from the donor community 30
  • 32. Coverage Limits for CCRIF members - EQ • The overall coverage limit for the portfolio increased by US$148m from 2007/08 to the current policy year. • Trinidad and Tobago has continually held the majority of the portfolio with a coverage limit over US$90m for the last 10 years. • Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago are the only countries to have purchased policies with a coverage limit over $22m. The earthquake portfolio is weighted by these two policies. • For the 10-year period, 6 countries have purchased coverage over US$10m. • Barbados, Haiti Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago have increased earthquake coverage over this period. • The Turks and Caicos Islands discontinued coverage in 2009 and Belize discontinued in 2016. • The Bahamas and Bermuda have never purchased coverage for this peril. The coverage limit is the maximum payout under the policy
  • 33. Coverage Limits for CCRIF members - TC • The overall coverage limit has increased by US$3.8m from 2007 to the current policy year. • From inception of CCRIF coverage, Jamaica has continually purchased the majority. Currently, Jamaica accounts for 20% of the total tropical cyclone coverage purchased. • 13 countries maintained a coverage limit below US$40m. • Two countries have increased significantly since inception: Jamaica has increased coverage by US$24.6m and Barbados by US$18.7m. • Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis and St. Vincent and the Grenadines have steadily increased coverage over 11 years while maintaining coverage limits under US$11m. • The Cayman Islands, Dominica and Trinidad and Tobago have decreased coverage over the years, with the Cayman Islands showing a downward trend. • Belize and Bermuda have discontinued tropical cyclone coverage and The Bahamas interrupted its TC coverage when it did not purchase policies for 2014/15 and 2016/17.
  • 34. Coverage Limits for CCRIF members - XSR • CCRIF launched the Excess Rainfall product in 2014/15 • 8 countries purchased coverage for this peril in the first year • Currently 13 countries have excess rainfall policies enforced. • The overall coverage limit for the portfolio increased by US$68.6m from 2014/15 to the current policy year. • Jamaica has the highest coverage limit in 2017/18 of US$34m. • All countries except Haiti, Jamaica and Trinidad have maintained a coverage limit under US$12m. • Barbados, Jamaica and Haiti have increased coverage for each policy year. • Within this period, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize and the Cayman Islands have discontinued XSR polices for at least one policy year.
  • 35. Examination of Ceding Percentages Members should have a ceding percentage of at least 25% on each of their policies • In general – there has been an upward trend in the ceding percentage values for each country and each product between 2007/08 (2014/15 for XSR) and 2016/17 • The only country that has a ceding percentage that meets the “adequate coverage” level for all its 2017/2018 policies is Barbados. • The peril that is at the least “adequate” level of coverage is excess rainfall. The ceding percentage is the fraction of risk transferred to CCRIF
  • 36. Examination of Ceding Percentages - 2 Country 2017/18 CCRIF Policy with Ceding Percentage at least 25% EQ TC XSR Anguilla Y N Y Antigua & Barbuda N (24%) N NP Barbados Y Y Y Belize NP NP N Cayman Islands Y N NP Dominica N N N Grenada Y Y N Haiti Y N N Jamaica Y N N St. Kitts & Nevis Y N N Saint Lucia Y Y N St. Vincent & the Grenadines Y Y N The Bahamas N/A N N Trinidad & Tobago N Y Y Turks & Caicos Islands N/A Y N N/A – not applicable; this policy not recommended based on country’s risk profile NP – No policy purchased although it is recommended
  • 37. Examination of Ceding Percentages - 3 • For 2017/18 policy year, Saint Lucia has the highest ceding percentage for each policy (at 97.5% for EQ, %97.6 for TC and 11.8% for XSR). • This country has increased the percentages for TC and EQ significantly since the 2007/08 policy year by selecting different attachment and exhaustion points, the premium costs for 2017/18 TC and EQ policies have remained less than twice those in 2007/08. • Belize shows a country changing the composition of its catastrophe insurance portfolio. Belize had greatly increased its ceding percentage for EQ between the 2010/11 and 2013/14 policy years (2.3% and 86.5%, respectively) but then discontinued its EQ policy and explored different options for its TC and XSR policies, purchasing only XSR for the most recent year – 2017/18. • Based on requests from certain member countries, excess rainfall policies have been developed for sub-national units. The Bahamas is divided into 4 zones for XSR coverage. The ceding percentages for all 4 policies range from 1.7% (extreme north) to 88.4% (southeast). The southeast XSR policy was triggered by Hurricane Irma in September 2017.
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  • 41. Factors that determine coverage levels • Level of resources available within the national budget • Uncertainty about appropriate or best level of coverage • Level of discounts or special incentives provided by CCRIF • Need for enhanced understanding among governments of different risk financing instruments and the best way of applying each to maximize benefits to countries (e.g. parametric insurance such as CCRIF and CAT DDOs must be seen as complimentary instruments) Decisions regarding coverage levels are based on:
  • 42. Understanding the role of country risk profiles AIM  Provide information to the Country Risk Managers with simplicity, accuracy and robustness about the demographical, geological, economic characteristics of their territories.  Assess the impact of historical losses which may have caused damages, both to the infrastructure, population and economics.  Illustrate and facilitate the risk transfer decisions.  Help decision-making process, but not substitute it. A country risk manager has to decide what is best for the country, given the combination of exposure to risk, risk proneness and also considering budgeting restrictions. CONTENT  Hazard Profile  Exposure Profile  Risk Profile  Most severe historical events and their estimated economical loss
  • 43. Link between Country Risk Profiles and Country Policy Characteristics 43 The aim of the country risk profiles is to provide information to the Country Risk Managers with simplicity, accuracy and robustness about the demographic, geological, economic characteristics of their territories. It also assesses the impact of historical losses which may have caused damages, both to the infrastructure, population and economics. The document also indicates the likely economical losses the country may confront whether such historical and probabilistic scenarios should occur. It is not a substitute for the decision making process, it is properly an instrument to illustrate and facilitate the risk transfer decisions. At the end of the day, a country risk manager has to decide what is best for the country, given the combination of exposure to risk, risk proneness and also considering budgeting restrictions. The country risk profile will provide particularly the three most severe historical scenarios and their estimated economical loss, so a country risk manager can have at least a range of amounts by peril to help make the decision.
  • 44. Lessons Learned from CCRIF’s 10 years 44
  • 45. Lessons Learned over the 10 years 2007 - 2017
  • 46. 46 Lessons Learned Much of the success of CCRIF has not been by chance. We have based our operation on learning lessons and on a culture of continuous improvement as well as projecting needs and recognizing the dynamic and ever-changing global environment of which we are part. There have been many lessons learned that countries, organizations and donors should take into account in pursuance of a similar facility. I will share the main lessons with you.
  • 47. Lessons Learned over the 10 years 2007 – 2017 • Risk pooling • Providing discounts and bundling products when possible bearing in mind fiscal constraints of members Keeping premiums low • Developing new products • Providing preferable policy options (e.g. lower attachment points) due to expectations of payouts Being flexible and responsive to members’ needs • Leads to informed decision making Increasing understanding of CCRIF products • Frequent interaction • Sourcing funding for new products • Premium Support for most disadvantaged countries Engagement with donors 47
  • 48. Lessons Learned over the 10 years 2007 – 2017 Consultations aid project development and underpin continuous improvement Donor support is invaluable Success depends heavily on the relevant knowledge and experience of decision makers Stakeholders’ interests must be represented Stakeholder engagement is a continuing objective Minimize non-essential bureaucracy to lower overhead costs and product price Third-party monitoring and evaluation can help to broaden or streamline organizational focus as necessary Know your limitations Building capacity through training, technical assistance programmes to enhance understanding of CCRIF, DRM and risk transfer in general
  • 49. Final Words on Lessons Learned • Financial mechanisms such as CCRIF must not be seen as a panacea but rather a complementary tool in addressing the much broader issue of disaster management within the state. • An important theme in the sustainability of such an innovative tool for risk management is the avoidance of complacency and stagnation. Constant communication, accountability, evaluation and evolution are necessary to maintain the relevance and reliability of the mechanism. Decision makers must remain creative in their desire to grow and expand the worth of the tool to stakeholders while remembering its initial mission and purpose. 49
  • 50. Scaling up of CCRIF 50
  • 51. 51 A Snapshot of a Scaled-up CCRIF – Key Strategies and Instruments for Expanding Scope – to 2030 Products • TC • EQ • XSR • Drought • Agriculture • Tourism • Tsunamis • Public Utilities including telecommunications and water and wastewater Services • Increasing coverage of members • Direct insurance to individuals and institutions • Vehicle to access donor resources to support CCA in member countries • Supports vulnerability assessmetns and the development of building codes in member countries • Expand economics of climate adaptation study Members • Caribbean • All CDB BMCs • Central America • British and Dutch Overseas Territories • South America • Caribbean Basin to include Guyana, Suriname, Colombia CCRIF - The Organiation • Increased capacity for R & D - models, market research, new products • Expanded technical experts and service providers in organization • Expanded CCRIF Secretariat Based on the findings of A Study of Scaling-UP CCRIF undertaken in January/February 2018 and recommendations from stakeholders, the following depicts a snapshot of what an expanded or scaled-up CCRIF could look like by 2030.
  • 52. Views and Perceptions of Member Governments on Scaling Up CCRIF • Increase coverage levels of countries that are below adequate • Add to its existing products • Add to its membership – within the Caribbean and in Central America • Determine how CCRIF can provide support in-country and within strengthening national CDM strategies
  • 53. Views and Perceptions of Donors/Developm ent Partners on Scaling Up CCRIF Increase the level of coverage within existing countries – within the context of analyzing what the appropriate level of coverage is for a given country. CCRIF should help countries determine the appropriate level Expand to cover economic sectors such as agriculture and tourism Expand to other countries to spread risk. Increased membership should spread the risks more which could lead to reduced premiums. Consider non-homogenous pool of countries which are not all affected by the same risks. CCRIF needs to expand membership in Central America which has started. 53
  • 54. Views and Perceptions of Regional Organizations on Scaling Up CCRIF • Increase the level of coverage within existing countries • Expand to cover other types of events (for example, tsunami, volcanoes, health-related, agriculture (pests, livestock, marine) • Expand to other countries; spreading risk (thus reducing risk to CCRIF) would be good and may drive down cost of premiums
  • 55. The CCRIF Story is a powerful way to demonstrate the linkages between country DRM strategies and risk transfer and the linkages between risk transfer, poverty reduction and economic growth and we share the UN 2030 goals for sustainable development and the importance of “leaving no one behind in development” – we effectively support the goals of promoting sustainable economic growth, ensuring environmental, social and fiscal sustainability and reducing poverty – as evidenced by CCRIF’s mission statement: “A resilient Caribbean region and beyond with optimised disaster risk management and climate change adaptation practices supporting long-term sustainable development”. 55 Is it time for CCRIF+