Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference. The federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2015 equaled 2.5 percent of GDP, the smallest deficit since 2007. But, over the next 10 years, federal spending is projected to rise relative to the size of the economy because of the growth in health care and retirement programs and escalating interest costs. If federal tax and spending policies remained generally unchanged, revenues would not keep pace with spending, and within a few years, the deficit would begin to rise again relative to GDP.

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