The U.S. Economic Outlook

Congressional Budget Office
Congressional Budget OfficeWebmaster at Congressional Budget Office à Congressional Budget Office
Presentation to Economic and Financial Counselors From the European Union
September 14, 2023
Richard DeKaser
Director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division
The U.S. Economic Outlook
1
Forecast for 2023 to 2025:
▪ Growth will be sustained but with a soft patch in the near term.
▪ Unemployment will rise slightly.
▪ Inflation will gradually return to prepandemic levels.
▪ Interest rates will decline as inflation comes under control.
Risks to the Outlook:
▪ The outlook for inflation presents the greatest uncertainty.
▪ The upside risks of lower inflation and faster growth are balanced with the
downside risks of higher inflation and slower growth.
The Congressional Budget Office’s Economic Outlook in Brief
2
See Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025 (July 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/59258.
CBO’s Outlook at a Glance
In CBO’s forecast, output
growth remains positive but
is too slow to prevent
unemployment from
rising—although only by
about 1 percentage point.
Inflation declines as a result
of increased slack in the
economy and an end to
supply chain disruptions.
Interest rates decline as
inflation declines and
monetary policy becomes
less restrictive.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2022 2023 2024 2025
1.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.4
3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 3.6 4.1 4.7 4.5
4.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 5.7 3.3 2.6 2.2
5.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 4.8 3.7 2.6 2.2
4.5 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.7 5.4 4.5 3.6
3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.5
Federal Funds
10-Year Treasury Notes
Inflation
Percentage Change (Annual Rate)
Percentage Change (Annual Rate)
Quarterly Average
Quarterly Average
Interest Rates (Percent)
Real Gross Domestic Product
Unemployment (Percent)
PCE Inflation
Core PCE Inflation
Percentage Change (Q4 to Q4)
Q4 Average
Percentage Change (Q4 to Q4)
Q4 Average
3
Data source: Congressional Budget Office, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Inflation
Broad measures of inflation
peaked in mid-2022—their
highest levels in decades. The
decline over the past year has
been dramatic, however.
CBO and other economic
forecasters have struggled to
determine the extent to which
those dynamics reflect
fundamental and persistent
supply constraints or
idiosyncratic and transitory
disruptions related to the
coronavirus pandemic.
4
See, for example, U. Devrim Demirel and Matthew Wilson, Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack, Working Paper 2023-05
(Congressional Budget Office, April 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/59056.
Inflation Determinants: Fundamental or Idiosyncratic?
Unemployment averaged
3.6 percent in 2022, well
below CBO’s estimate of the
noncyclical rate of 4.4 percent.
The unemployment rate was
also 3.6 percent in 2019, when
inflation (excluding food and
energy prices) was a modest
1.6 percent, suggesting that
labor constraints were not the
dominant inflationary
pressure.
Alternatively, supply
disruptions were severe in
2022 but have improved
dramatically since then.
1 sur 5

Recommandé

CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections par
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic ProjectionsCBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic ProjectionsCongressional Budget Office
1.6K vues12 diapositives
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections par
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections Congressional Budget Office
1.5K vues12 diapositives
Budget and economic outlook 2014 to 2024 par
Budget and economic outlook 2014 to 2024Budget and economic outlook 2014 to 2024
Budget and economic outlook 2014 to 2024Luis Taveras EMBA, MS
1.7K vues81 diapositives
Mortgage Rate Forecast (March 2023) par
Mortgage Rate Forecast (March 2023)Mortgage Rate Forecast (March 2023)
Mortgage Rate Forecast (March 2023)VickyAulakh1
48 vues2 diapositives
The Current Outlook for the Economy and the Budget par
The Current Outlook for the Economy and the BudgetThe Current Outlook for the Economy and the Budget
The Current Outlook for the Economy and the BudgetCongressional Budget Office
3.6K vues23 diapositives
CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230 par
CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230 CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230
CBO- ECONOMIC 2020 -230 fadliwiryawirawan
32 vues5 diapositives

Contenu connexe

Similaire à The U.S. Economic Outlook

Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020 par
Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020
Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020Preggie Moodley
728 vues6 diapositives
A Presentation on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 par
A Presentation on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033A Presentation on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
A Presentation on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033Congressional Budget Office
1.5K vues12 diapositives
EP_2022Q4.pdf par
EP_2022Q4.pdfEP_2022Q4.pdf
EP_2022Q4.pdfGeorgeMutasa1
3 vues42 diapositives
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook par
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic OutlookCBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic OutlookCongressional Budget Office
4.7K vues30 diapositives
Morgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics Outlook par
Morgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics OutlookMorgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics Outlook
Morgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics OutlookInvestoida
142 vues36 diapositives
Due an upgrade? What to expect in the Spring Statement par
Due an upgrade? What to expect in the Spring StatementDue an upgrade? What to expect in the Spring Statement
Due an upgrade? What to expect in the Spring StatementResolutionFoundation
458 vues17 diapositives

Similaire à The U.S. Economic Outlook(20)

Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020 par Preggie Moodley
Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020
Statement of the monetary policy committee 19 november 2020
Preggie Moodley728 vues
Morgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics Outlook par Investoida
Morgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics OutlookMorgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics Outlook
Morgan Stanley - 2023 US Economics Outlook
Investoida 142 vues
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx par CRFBGraphics
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFBGraphics1.1K vues

Plus de Congressional Budget Office

Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment par
 Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of UnemploymentCongressional Budget Office
363 vues14 diapositives
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook par
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCongressional Budget Office
769 vues24 diapositives
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an... par
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Congressional Budget Office
490 vues23 diapositives
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress par
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCongressional Budget Office
361 vues13 diapositives
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020 par
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Congressional Budget Office
966 vues35 diapositives
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office par
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeCongressional Budget Office
474 vues11 diapositives

Plus de Congressional Budget Office(20)

Dernier

Support Girl students with Education par
Support Girl students with EducationSupport Girl students with Education
Support Girl students with EducationSERUDS INDIA
6 vues6 diapositives
Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ... par
Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ...Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ...
Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ...India Water Portal
7 vues12 diapositives
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx par
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxMs. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
10 vues18 diapositives
AABS project overview par
AABS project overviewAABS project overview
AABS project overviewWorldFish
23 vues17 diapositives
2023 Q1-Q2 Newsletter - First Tee Puerto Rico par
2023 Q1-Q2 Newsletter - First Tee Puerto Rico2023 Q1-Q2 Newsletter - First Tee Puerto Rico
2023 Q1-Q2 Newsletter - First Tee Puerto RicoFirst Tee Puerto Rico
35 vues15 diapositives
How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey? par
How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey?How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey?
How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey?OECD CFE
104 vues7 diapositives

Dernier(20)

Support Girl students with Education par SERUDS INDIA
Support Girl students with EducationSupport Girl students with Education
Support Girl students with Education
SERUDS INDIA6 vues
Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ... par India Water Portal
Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ...Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ...
Managing drinking water infrastructure in West Bengal Gram Panchayats_Sujata ...
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx par AKADEMIYA2063
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxMs. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
AKADEMIYA206310 vues
AABS project overview par WorldFish
AABS project overviewAABS project overview
AABS project overview
WorldFish23 vues
How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey? par OECD CFE
How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey?How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey?
How can the social and solidarity economy help refugees along their journey?
OECD CFE104 vues
Social behavioural change to drive community ownership_ Divyang Waghela_Tata ... par India Water Portal
Social behavioural change to drive community ownership_ Divyang Waghela_Tata ...Social behavioural change to drive community ownership_ Divyang Waghela_Tata ...
Social behavioural change to drive community ownership_ Divyang Waghela_Tata ...
ΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΚΟΜΙΣΙΟΝ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑ par ssuser9e6212
ΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΚΟΜΙΣΙΟΝ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΚΟΜΙΣΙΟΝ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑ
ΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΚΟΜΙΣΙΟΝ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑ
ssuser9e6212170 vues
Dr Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference .pptx par AKADEMIYA2063
Dr Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference .pptxDr Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference .pptx
Dr Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference .pptx
AKADEMIYA20639 vues
A terrorist threat originating from Qatar. par fasurijobaf
A terrorist threat originating from Qatar.A terrorist threat originating from Qatar.
A terrorist threat originating from Qatar.
fasurijobaf7 vues
Mukhya Mantri Gramin Peyjal Nishchay Yojana (MGPNY) – Bihar_Pankaj Kumar_AKRS... par India Water Portal
Mukhya Mantri Gramin Peyjal Nishchay Yojana (MGPNY) – Bihar_Pankaj Kumar_AKRS...Mukhya Mantri Gramin Peyjal Nishchay Yojana (MGPNY) – Bihar_Pankaj Kumar_AKRS...
Mukhya Mantri Gramin Peyjal Nishchay Yojana (MGPNY) – Bihar_Pankaj Kumar_AKRS...
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx par AKADEMIYA2063
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
AKADEMIYA20638 vues
2023 First Tee - Greater Richmond Holiday Gift Guide par bill151498
2023 First Tee - Greater Richmond Holiday Gift Guide2023 First Tee - Greater Richmond Holiday Gift Guide
2023 First Tee - Greater Richmond Holiday Gift Guide
bill15149880 vues

The U.S. Economic Outlook

  • 1. Presentation to Economic and Financial Counselors From the European Union September 14, 2023 Richard DeKaser Director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division The U.S. Economic Outlook
  • 2. 1 Forecast for 2023 to 2025: ▪ Growth will be sustained but with a soft patch in the near term. ▪ Unemployment will rise slightly. ▪ Inflation will gradually return to prepandemic levels. ▪ Interest rates will decline as inflation comes under control. Risks to the Outlook: ▪ The outlook for inflation presents the greatest uncertainty. ▪ The upside risks of lower inflation and faster growth are balanced with the downside risks of higher inflation and slower growth. The Congressional Budget Office’s Economic Outlook in Brief
  • 3. 2 See Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025 (July 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/59258. CBO’s Outlook at a Glance In CBO’s forecast, output growth remains positive but is too slow to prevent unemployment from rising—although only by about 1 percentage point. Inflation declines as a result of increased slack in the economy and an end to supply chain disruptions. Interest rates decline as inflation declines and monetary policy becomes less restrictive. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2022 2023 2024 2025 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 3.6 4.1 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 5.7 3.3 2.6 2.2 5.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 4.8 3.7 2.6 2.2 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.7 5.4 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.5 Federal Funds 10-Year Treasury Notes Inflation Percentage Change (Annual Rate) Percentage Change (Annual Rate) Quarterly Average Quarterly Average Interest Rates (Percent) Real Gross Domestic Product Unemployment (Percent) PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation Percentage Change (Q4 to Q4) Q4 Average Percentage Change (Q4 to Q4) Q4 Average
  • 4. 3 Data source: Congressional Budget Office, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation Broad measures of inflation peaked in mid-2022—their highest levels in decades. The decline over the past year has been dramatic, however. CBO and other economic forecasters have struggled to determine the extent to which those dynamics reflect fundamental and persistent supply constraints or idiosyncratic and transitory disruptions related to the coronavirus pandemic.
  • 5. 4 See, for example, U. Devrim Demirel and Matthew Wilson, Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack, Working Paper 2023-05 (Congressional Budget Office, April 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/59056. Inflation Determinants: Fundamental or Idiosyncratic? Unemployment averaged 3.6 percent in 2022, well below CBO’s estimate of the noncyclical rate of 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was also 3.6 percent in 2019, when inflation (excluding food and energy prices) was a modest 1.6 percent, suggesting that labor constraints were not the dominant inflationary pressure. Alternatively, supply disruptions were severe in 2022 but have improved dramatically since then.