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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by CIAT

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Presentation at a workshop convened by CCAFS Learning Platform 1 in Rome, Italy, on 19-20 February 2019.

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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by CIAT

  1. 1. Foresight for Tropical Forage Breeding Some ideas from CIAT An Notenbaert, John Mutua, Valheria Castiblanco CCAFS learning platform 1 19-20 February, 2019 Bioversity, Rome
  2. 2. BACKGROUND 2
  3. 3. Importance of Livestock For PEOPLE • Employment, income • Economy • Food and nutrition • Cultural value • Resilience and risk management And the PLANET • Biggest land user • Natural resources: • Manure, SOC, biodiversity, energy, … • GHGe, water use and pollution, fishmeal 3FAO 2016; Gerber et al. 2007; Herrero et al. 2008; Herrero et al. 2013; LID 1999; Thornton et al. 2002; Thornton and Herrero 2008; Rosegrant et al 2009; Worldbank 2009 17 billion domestic animals 1.3 billion people employed in livestock VCs 600 million poor livestock keepers (2/3 women) 70% demand increase 2005-2030 Sector value >1.4 trillion USD; growth rate 2.5% Constitutes about 40% of agricultural GDP Food for at least 830 million food insecure people 17% of kilocalorie and 33% of protein consumption Vitamin A, B-12, riboflavin, calcium, iron and zinc 26% = rangeland, 33% of cropland for fodder 32% of global water consumption 60% of cropping area receives manure application 14.5% of human-induced GHG emissions
  4. 4. Impacts of CC on Livestock • Hazards/stresses: • Δ CO2, temperature, precipitation • Variability and extreme events • Direct impact • Heat stress • Indirect impact • Water • Diseases • Biodiversity, Soil • Feeds and forages • Livelihoods and systems 4
  5. 5. Feeds and forages Feeds and forages • Crop residues • Planted forages • Grassland/Rangeland • Grains • Additives • Climate change and variability! • Indirect effects e.g. pests • Quantity • Quality • Composition 5 Herrero et al, 2013 Bovine dairy Bovine meat Shoat dairy Shoat meat 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Grain Stover Other Grass 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Grain Stover Other Grass Sub-SaharanAfricaLatin-America
  6. 6. Feed as a true triple-win (CSA) intervention • Current potential of mixed crop-livestock systems in e.g. SSA remains largely underexploited • Feed availability generally cited as one of the biggest risks of climate change • Improved feeding offers the potential to improve productivity & reduce GHG emissions Photos by ILRI Main production constraint: sufficient quantity and quality of feeds all year round 0 100 200 300 400 500 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 11.50 methane-kgCO2/kg proteinproduced metabolisable energy (MJ/kg DM) developed developing Maass et al, 2013 Herrero et al, 2012 Gonzalez et al, 2016 MitigationAdaptationProduction
  7. 7. Brachiaria grasses (i) are of high nutritional value, (ii) are well adapted to drought and low fertility and (iii) contribute to soil carbon accumulation / BNI Mechanisms Water spenders Maintaining water uptake Napier grass Cayman Water savers Reducing water loss • Deep roots • Rapid growth • Increased root length density at depth • Increased root growth at expense of shoots • Greater root length to foliar area ratio • Closing of stomata • Slow growth • Leaf senescence • Reduced leaf area • Smaller root length to leaf area ratio Both mechanisms Terminal drought Intermittent drought Productivity Targeting of Brachiaria grasses to areas with different patterns of drought New ecotypes, hybrids?cv. Paiaguas?700mm annual precipitation -Piata -Mulato II -Toledo -Marandu -Cobra -Mulato -Cayman -Rhodes grass -Basilisk -Llanero -Tully -Tupi Cultivars Fertility -Napier grass High Low
  8. 8. ON-GOING • Heat stress mapping • Suitability mapping and targeting • Breeding site selection • Environmental ex-ante impact assessments 8
  9. 9. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/99219 A bit of exploratory work on Heat Stress • Behavioral and metabolic changes, e.g. reduced feed intake, increased energy requirement, decreased conception rates, … • Influenced by species, genetic potential, life stage and nutritional status 9
  10. 10. Heat Stress – next steps • Explore shorter timescales: heat load index and daily data. • Expand to other species and regions • Some kind of hotspot mapping? Link to early warning? 1
  11. 11. Suitability change mapping 1 • Suitability change – 2000-2020 (A2): Pennisetum purpureum (Napier grass) Brachiaria brizantha (Signal grass) Desmodium ovalifolium Gliricidia sepium Ecocrop modeling based on LGP, Temperature and Rainfall parameters (Hymann et al.)
  12. 12. Targeting tool • Updated forage suitability maps for Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda - https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/FNEGDP ; https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ESK6BB • ESRI Story Map - https://csi.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=9b82b57f8a144da5871d0abd9d5f93fe • User-friendly web-based tool for creating suitability and similarity maps - http://targetingtools.ciat.cgiar.org/app/ (still under development) 1
  13. 13. Feasibility mapping: Feed constraints Feed quantity Feed scarcity Targeting
  14. 14. Feasibility mapping: Adoption factors Water availability Land availability
  15. 15. NEXT STEPS • Suitability change mapping  quantitative impact on yield, nutritional value, etc (crop modelling?) • Refined targeting info and tools 1
  16. 16. 17.08.2018 CIAT (Oliphant et al) Breeding site selection • New breeding programme for East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda & Tanzania) • Forage needs to exhibit „cut and carry“ and drought tolerance characteristics • Need to test first selection cycles of breeding programme near to CIAT HQ in Colombia Site selection close in Colombia need to represent those of conditions and stresses in East Africa
  17. 17. 17.08.2018 CIAT (Oliphant et al) Inputs Tmin Precipitation Tmax Soil Pasture and Crop area Tmax_filter Tmin_filter Prec_filter Soil_filter Step 1 Inputs 1 Characterization of environmental zones in East Africa Step 2 Calculate index drought stress Step 3 Multivariate DTW for calculating similarity The distance is calculated by reference pixels of East African clusters Ouput Map of Colombia delineating similar sites to East Africa FILTER Cluster Analysis of East Africa Step 4
  18. 18. 17.08.2018 CIAT (Oliphant et al)
  19. 19. Both
  20. 20. NEXT STEPS • Site selection for breeding  Narrow E-Africa analysis to mixed C-L systems and add climate projections ; expand to SEA  Characterise for abiotic stresses (e.g. different types of drought)  Refined targeting info and tools • Develop product profile 2
  21. 21. CLEANED X: minimum-data environmental ex-ante assessment tool 1. Production (absolute and per ha) 2. Land requirement for feed production (ha, ha/kg product) 3. GHG emissions (absolute, per ha, per kg product, per protein) 4. Soil health (Erosion, NUE, % area leached, % area mined) 5. Water use (absolute, per ha, per kg product, per protein) + simple Cost/Benefit calculations
  22. 22. • Productivity increases go hand-in-hand with increased resource-use and GHG emission efficiency. • Absolute increases in natural resource use point to the need for effective management of stocks and quality of these resources (e.g. appropriate manure management to prevent nutrient mining). • An overall rise in GHG emissions is expected. CLEANED X: Case study in Lushoto, Tanzania