Presentation from the CCAFS Farm-household Modeling workshop - Amsterdam, 23-35 April 2012

1. A novel methodology for ex ante assessment of
climate change adaptation strategies: examples
from East Africa
Lieven Claessens
John Antle, Jetse Stoorvogel, Roberto Valdivia,
Philip Thornton, Mario Herrero

2. Research methodology:
Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD)
 Bio-economic model for integrated assessment of agricultural systems
 Assessing environmental and economic sustainability of technologies and policies.
 Linking stakeholders with research teams.
 Using quantitative impact assessment tools and models.
 Population of farms (variation), not a ‘representative farm’
 Simulates CC impacts and benefits of adaptation.

3. TOA-MD for climate change impact assessment
farmers, extension workers, local community leaders
Income (poverty)
• Public stakeholders Malnutrition
• Policy makers
• Scientists Technologies: e.g. dual-purpose sweet potato,
drought resistant potato,
improved livestock breeds/management,…
Identify indicators and scenarios
Policies: e.g. investment in irrigation, infrastructure,
fertilizer subsidies, greenhouse gas mitigation
Coordinated Disciplinary Research policies,..
• Downscale GCM and RCM output
• Prepare crop and livestock models
• Prepare economic data and models
• Prepare environmental data and models
• Set up scenarios for simulation
• Implement analysis using TOA software
Evaluate results with stakeholders

4. Disciplinary research:
Global Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) data
 Downscaled GCM + emission scenarios (150 - 300 km to 25 - 10 km)
 RCM: REMO model for East Africa (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg)
Daily data,1950 – 2050, 2 IPCC emission scenarios (A1B and B1)
 Downscaled data as inputs for crop growth, livestock and pest models

5. Disciplinary research:
Crop and livestock models
 Crop growth simulation models for simulating CC impacts
 Parameterization of crop models with existing or prospective technologies
 Development and inclusion of pest related model components (late blight, potato
tuber moth,..) + vector population parameters sensitive to CC
 CC effects on livestock productivity

6. Disciplinary research:
Economic models
 Economic model uses distribution (variability) of economic data from the farm
population (resource and land allocation, prices of inputs and outputs, net returns,…)
 Changes in crop and livestock productivity drive economic models, ‘adoption’
(economic feasibility) and poverty rates.

7. Disciplinary research:
Scenario construction and TOA-MD software
 Scenarios: current system with perturbed climate and adaptation strategies
 Evaluation of stakeholder defined impact indicators - changes in farm income
- poverty measures
- nutrition and food security indicators
- environmental indicators

8. Results from completed and ongoing work
 Project study sites in East Africa:
Kenya: Embu, Mbeere,
Machakos, Makueni,
Vihiga
Uganda: Soroti, Kabale, Pallisa,
Nakaseke
Ethiopia: Holetta, Shashemene

9. Results from completed and ongoing work
 Some results for Kenya:
Mixed (crop-livestock) semi-subsistence agricultural systems, high poverty rates:
VIHIGA, western province Kenya
MACHAKOS-MAKUENI, eastern province Kenya

10. Study areas

11. Materials and Methods:
SURVEY DATA
- Survey data (quantities and prices) on inputs (such as seeds, labor, fertilizer,
manure), outputs (crop yields, milk production and land areas), and farm management.
- 120 farms for each study area.
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS & EFFECTS ON PRODUCTIVITY
- 2050, IPCC 4AR, WorldCLIM, combinations of GCMs HadCM3 & ECHam4 with
SRES scenarios A1FI & B1 (very high and low emissions).
- Projections from RCM (REMO, MPI-M) currently being analyzed.
- DSSAT crop growth models for maize and beans. Estimations for other crops.
- Livestock: decline in milk yield due to increased heat stress and decreased farm
produced feed.

12. Materials and Methods:
EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TESTED
- Improved, drought tolerant maize variety.
- Introduction of dual-purpose sweet potato with varying yield levels.
- Improved livestock breeds and feed quality (high crude protein content sweet potato
vines).

13. TOA-MD Model setup:
• Stratify population if useful (e.g. dairy, farm size, irrigation,…)
• Systems characterized by different activities (crops, livestock, aquaculture)
• Parameterize base and alternative systems with survey and simulation results
• CC effects on productivity in alternative system
• Simulate impacts of different adaptation strategies
• Socio-economic scenarios: Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs)

14. TOA-MD Model setup:

15. TOA-MD results: CC impact and adaptation

16. TOA-MD results: CC impact and adaptation

17. Some TOA-MD results for Vihiga and Machakos:
• 82% of farms in Vihiga and 60% in Machakos negatively impacted by CC
• Poverty rates from 62% to 69% for Vihiga, from 73% to 78% for Machakos
• Introduction of improved maize very limited effect in Vihiga but reducing
negatively affected farms to 49% in Machakos
• Low yielding DP sweet potato offsets CC effects in Machakos
• Vihiga needs high yielding DP sweet potato and improved livestock breeds
to offset CC effects
• Dairy farmers have highest incomes and benefit most from adaptation

18. Discussion & Conclusion
• Assumptions had to be made in climate change and adaptation scenarios.
• Uncertainty in GCMs, SRES scenarios, downscaling and crop growth and
livestock simulation models.
• Climate variability and pests and diseases not yet included in analysis.
• Adoption rates based on economic feasibility, providing upper bound for real
adoption.
• The TOA-MD approach offers a rapid integrative analysis for exploring options
and timely advice to farmers and policymakers.

19. THANK YOU!
www.tradeoffs.oregonstate.edu