Presentation at CCAFS - FAO Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture
 16 - 17 July 2012


1. Developing Local Action Plans for land-based NAMA in Indonesia with LUWES
Sonya Dewi

3. REL and multiple schemes of emission reduction
Unilateral emission reduction – land- based NAMA
Internationally supported emission reduction – REDD+
C-trade emission transfer
Net emissions from Indonesia
26%
Reference Emission Level
15%
3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
1990 2000 2010 2020
Gt/y

4. Presidential Decree 61/2011
•Action plan to direct and indirect activities to reduce GHG emission appropriate to national development target -> regional development target
•Guideline for Ministry/Institution in planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluation
•Guideline for local government in setting up GHG regional action plan (RAD-GRK)
•Guideline for community and private sectors in planning and implementing emission reduction.
National Action Plan in reducing
GHG (RAN-GRK) (26% target)

5. NAMA to LAMA
•Strategy, program at the national level, implementation at subnational level
•Local contexts: needs, constraints, challenges, opportunities
•Fair and efficient: bottom up approach
•Integration between development and mitigation- adaptation
•BAU scenario to set REL
•Payment distribution, funding mechanism
•Planning capacity + authority -> accountability
•Nested system, including MRV

6. Developing Provincial/District land-based Action Plan (RAD-GRK)
1.Identification and quantification of sources and drivers of land-based emission
2.Identification of potential of emission reduction and low hanging fruit
3.Development of baseline scenarios of land use-land use changes, and Reference Emission Level
4.List of GHG Emission Reduction Action Plan (core and supporting activities)
5.Priority of proposed action plan
6.Identification of institutional setting, sources of funding, measuring and monitoring activities for province action plan, which is an aggregate of district action plans

7. Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Okt
Nov
RAD-GRK development
Team Building
Kick off meeting
Data Collection
BAU Baseline Calculation
Submission of the Action Plan
Determining priority
Determining emission reduction target
Developing implementation strategies
Governor draft of Action Plan
Meeting / Workshop
: milestone
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Government Agenda in Setting Up Province Action Plan (RAD-GRK) 2012

8. 8
Prioritization of GHG emission reduction activities from National Action Plan
Province may propose subset of activities as those outlined in the National Action Plan (what), with details of “where and how much” and “how”
Identification of development program/activities in regional strategies document (Renstra), regional development plan (RPJMD), regional budgeting (APBD), and vision of governor.
Propose new appropriate activities from public institution, private, and any other communities, also with the details of “where, how much and how”
Guidelines in Setting up Province/District Action Plan

9. How LUWES tool supports province/district action planning?
•Concrete action planning
•Away from project-to-project approach
•Integrated landscape approach
•What-if scenarios -> integrated decision making
•Trade-off analysis: emission reduction vs …
•Simple; capacity building is feasible
•Negotiation platform
•Bridging top-down and bottom-up -> refinement, feed back loop
•Integrated multiple schemes
•Green investment tools

10. LUWES in 6 steps
•Step 1: Integration of current socio-economic conditions, development and spatial planning, tenure regime, biophysical and functional zones to identify planning units (multistakeholder discussions, spatial analysis)
•Step 2: Estimation of Historical Land Use and Land Use Changes and their consequences to historic emission, (spatial analyses, C-stock appraisal, emission factor estimation)

11. LUWES in 6 steps
•Step 3: Baseline Scenario development of LULUC and estimation of Reference Levels of Emissions (stakeholder discussions, modelling Land use/cover changes)
•Step 4: Scenarios of emission reduction and projected emissions (ex-ante appraisal based on projected land use/cover)
•Step 5: Trade-off analysis, scenario selection (ex-ante appraisal of opportunity cost vs reduced emissions, negotiation process of multiple stakeholders)
•Step 6: Formulation of action plans including necessary instruments to implement the plans (multiple stakeholder process led by the local governments)

12. CASE STUDY: MERANGIN, JAMBI

13. Merangin watershed

14. •Multistakeholder discussions,
•Data compilation,
•Spatial analysis
Step 1
Integration of current socio- economic conditions, development and spatial planning, functional zones to identify planning units

15. Analysis, discussions with stakeholders

16. Planning Units

17. Planning Units

18. •Spatial analyses
•C-stock appraisal and emission factor estimation
•Historic emission estimation using ABACUS Step 2 Estimation of Historical Land Use Changes and their consequences to Multiple Environmental Services (carbon storage, watershed function, biodiversity)

20. Land use/cover maps:1990-2010

21. ΔC Landscape
Emission Factor
Activity Data
Annual changes in C-stocks in the landscape
(ton C yr-1)
ACTIVITY DATA Area of changes between each pairwise of landcover types (ha y-1)
Changes in time-averaged C-stock between each pairwise of landcover types (ton C ha-1y-1)
Stock-difference to estimate emissions

22. ID
Land cover
C-stock (ton/ha)
1
Undisturbed Forest
261.52
2
Logged over forest-high density
192.81
3
Logged over forest-low density
129.97
4
Timber Plantation
58
5
Agroforest
62.87
6
Estate
46.28
7
Shrub
43
8
Cropland
5.245
9
Grass
3.35
10
Bareland
3.35
11
Settlement
4.14

23. Carbon Density Maps of Batang Merangin Watershed
• Total historic emissions
• Emission shares of each planning unit
• Emission shares of each land use changes and drivers

24. •Stakeholder discussions
•Choices of linear projection, adjusted historic, forward looking scenarios
•Projection can be done using ABACUS through:
odriver modelling (spatially and non-spatially explicit),
oexisting land use and development plan
o or applying historic rate of changes Step 3 Baseline Scenario development of LULCC and estimation of Reference Levels of ES

25. Planning Unit
Baseline scenario: Historical Projection
Baseline scenario: Forward Looking
Protected Forest
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Protection Forest
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Production Forest, non- permit
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Production Forest, HTI
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Clear cut ALL and plant mono tree in the next five years
Production Forest, HPH
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Logging in the next 10-15 years caused forest degradation
Baseline Scenarios

26. Planning Unit
Baseline Scenario: Historical Projection
Baseline Scenario: Forward Looking
Production Forest, Hutan Desa/HTR
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
planting mono/Mixed tree(50:50) in low stock, low economical value
APL, permit
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Clear cut and plant mono tree in the next ten years
APL, non-permit, downstream
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
APL, non-permit, upstream, crop suit
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Clear cut and plant crop (increase the rates significantly from previous TPM)
APL, non-permit, upstream, tree suit
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Baseline Scenarios (cont’d)

27. 15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
Cummulative net-emission (ton CO2- eq/ha)
Historical Projection
Forward looking
To be negotiated, Under REL guideline
Projected emissions based on BAU Scenarios

28. •Stakeholders discussions on emission reduction scenarios for each planning unit
•ex-ante ES appraisal based on projected land use/cover using ABACUS
•cost-benefit analysis using ABACUS
•other valuation – multiplier effects
Step 4
Emission reduction scenario development, estimation of ex-ante emissions and trade-offs

29. Planning Unit
Scenario1: REDD+Moratorium
Scenario2: REALU
Protected Forest
Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest
Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest, log low to high, high to UF 10%
Protection Forest
Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest
Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest
Production Forest, non-permit
Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest
Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest
Production Forest, HTI
Stop clear cut, only planting to mono tree
Stop clear cut, only planting
Production Forest, HPH
Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD, LOF HD to LOF LD, LOF LD to Shrub)
Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD, LOF HD to LOF LD)
Emission Reduction Scenarios

30. Planning Unit
Scenario3: REDD+Moratorium
Scenario4: REALU
Production Forest, Hutan Desa/HTR
Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD to LOF LD), planting mono tree in low stock
Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD to LOF LD), planting mono tree in low stock
APL, permit
Clear cut and plant mono tree in the next five years
Clear cut (except UF) and plant mono tree in the next five years
APL, non-permit, downstream
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to economical with higher C_stock
APL, non-permit, upstream, crop suit
Clear cut and plant crop land (increase the rates significantly from rates of the previous period)
Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to economical crop with higher C_stock
APL, non-permit, upstream, tree suit
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to tree-based economical with higher C_stock
APL, non-permit, upstream, not suit
Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010
Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to reforestation
Emission Reduction Scenarios

31. 15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
Cummulative net-emission (ton CO2- eq/ha)
Historical Projection
Forward looking
REDD
REALU
Assumed as Agreed REL
Ex-ante emission based on Scenarios
Emission Reduction?

32. •negotiation process of multiple stakeholders Step 5 Trade-off analysis, strategy development

33. ID
Land cover
NPV ($/ha)
1
Undisturbed Forest
0.00
2
Logged over forest-high density
0.00
3
Logged over forest-low density
0.00
4
Timber Plantation
4392.33
5
Agroforest
1040.00
6
Estate
4948.67
7
Shrub
0.00
8
Cropland
25418.00
9
Grass
0.00
10
Bareland
0.00
11
Settlement
5787.00

34. Abatement cost curve 2005-2010

35. -5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Historical Projection
REDD+
REALU
Average number of people/year
Labor
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Historical Projection
REDD+
REALU
Cumulative ($/ha)
Opportunity Cost
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Historical Projection
REDD+
REALU
Cumulative (tCO2-eq)
Emission Reduction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Historical Projection
REDD+
REALU
Cumulative ($/tCO2-eq)
OppCost/Emission Reduction

36. •multiple stakeholder process led by the local governments
Step 6
Formulation of action plans including necessary instruments to implement the plans

37. Planning Unit
Emission reduction activities
Potential emission reduction
Issues
Implementation strategy
Forest Concession (HTI)
Avoiding primary forest conversion to Acacia
1.63
Company Concession
Suggest concession holder to preserve primary forest and disseminate Spatial Plan of Plantation Concession (Kepmenhut No. 70/KPTS- II/95), with reference to HCVF.
Raw material for company
Restrict any uses of raw material from primary forest
Community to open forest area
Strengthen monitoring and control activity in primary forest
Preserve smallholders plantation from conversion to acacia
1.01
Limited community’s administation document of land tenure
Implementing MOU betwen govenment, company, and community on forest border
Plant acacia in shrub and grass area immediately
1.16
Limited company capacity to plant acacia as soon.
Diseminate Act No. 7/ 1990 section 12

38. Planning Unit
Emission reduction activities
Potential emission reduction
Issues
Implementing strategy
Oil Palm Concession
Avoid conversion of primary forest and high density logged over forest to oil palm
3.36
Concession company (under authority of company)
Oil palm concession holder to halt conversion of primary and logged over forest high density to oil palm as company’s participation in government’s emission reduction program, HCVF, market-based instrument (premium price), RSPO, ISPO
Need of land to achieve company’s production target
Land swap; partnerships with local people, intensification
Protected Forest Management Unit (KPHLG)
Preserve remaining forest
4.68
Community need of land in surrounding area
Awareness raising of community on forest management
Limited number of forest guards
Increase the number of forest guards under Ministry of Forestry
Plant Dyiera sp in the area
4.84
Limited understanding (technical and marketing) of Dyiera sp
Technical assistance to community on Dyiera sp
Limited budget to support Dyiera sp’s planting material.
Involve the community on dyera sp planting
Explore and Extent market
HP
Preserve primary forest
5.08
People need to land
Campaign to community on forest management

39. Planning Unit
Emission reduction activities
Potential emission reduction
Issues
Implementing strategy
Production Forest
Preserve primary forest
5.08
The need for agricultural land
Awareness raising on forest management to the community
Limited number of forest guards
Increase the number of staff
Granting permit in the zone
Propose to Ministry of forestry to halt other permit in the zone
Facilitate establishment of forest management unit
Law enforcement
Plant rubber in non- forested area
People preference to cultivate the land with commodity which is lower is C retention
Make available rubber planting material
Disseminate Production Forest management plan to the community
Allocate land for village’s forest and other community based forest.
Limited Production Forest
Preserve primary forest
5.49
Encroachment
Disseminate Limited Production Forest management plan to the community
Limited number of forest guards
Increase number of staff
Mining permit within the panning unit
Propose to Ministry of Forestry to halt other permit
Facilitate establishment of forest production management unit
law enforcement
Plant rubber in non-
5.48
People preference to cultivate the land with commodity which is lower is C
Promote rubber planting

40. Software and Tools
•LUWES (Dewi et al., 2012)
•http://ptf.com/download/redd_abacus_sp/6170299/ (Harja et al.)
•http://www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/genriver_download (van Noordwijk et al.)
•IDRISI Taiga
•ArcGIS 10
•Fragstat 3

41. Thank you