The document provides information on the geographical location and topography of Bangladesh that makes it prone to flooding. Some key points:
- Bangladesh's location at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers and its low-lying delta plains mean many areas are below sea level.
- Major floods in 1988, 1998 and 2004 caused widespread damage and affected millions of people.
- Both structural (embankments, shelters) and non-structural (forecasting, preparedness) measures have been implemented to reduce flood impacts, though large areas remain vulnerable due to the country's natural geography.
10. Flood in Bangladesh
River Flood
Flash Flood
Rain-fed Flood
Tidal Flood
Unique geographical locations
Excess runoff from U/S
Low topography , River siltation
Sea swell during monsoon
Low gradients of major rivers; Gan – 3cm/km, BPutra –
8cm/km and Meg- 3cm/km
11. Floods in Bangladesh
Every year about 20 % of the cultivable
area is inundated more than one meter
about 4 to 6 months period
Situation deteriorates during floods of
higher magnitude
Catastrophic floods: 1987,1988, 1998, 2004
Casualties in 1998 floods
•
•
•
•
•
•
Over 60% area inundated
Over 30 million people affected
Over 4300 km of roads damaged
Food grain loss 2.2 million tons
270 thousands fish farms washed away
More than 3000 industries were affected
Flooding reduces economical activities and
enhances poverty
12. Major 3 Floods in Bangladesh
Bahadurabad on the Jamuna River
Water level comparable with
those of 1998 in Ganges and
Jamuna
20.5
2004
20.0
19.5
Water Level (mPWD)
1998
19.0
1988
18.5
18.0
Hardinge Bridge on the Ganges River
17.5
15.5
17.0
2004
1998
14.5
16.5
13.5
31-May
15-Jun
1988
Bhagyakul on the Padma River
12.5
30-Jun
11.5
15-Jul
30-Jul
14-Aug
13-Sep
28-Sep
2004
7.5
10.5
7.0
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
16-May
29-Aug
8.0
Date
31-May
15-Jun
Water Level (mPWD)
15.5
16-May
Water Level (mPWD)
16.0
6.5
6.0
1998
5.5
5.0
30-Jun
4.5
1988
15-Jul
30-Jul
14-Aug
29-Aug
30-Jun
15-Jul
13-Sep
28-Sep
30-Jul
14-Aug
Date
4.0
3.5
3.0
Water Level Comparison
(1988, 1998, 2004)
2.5
16-May
31-May
15-Jun
Date
29-Aug
13-Sep
28-Sep
13. Flood in 2004
Niketon area, Gulshan-1
Motijheel Area
Pump Drainage
Houses beside Hatirjheel
16. Comparison of Losses Resulting from Recent Floods
Damage to infrastructure goes higher even with flood of lower
magnitude
17. Risk Factors with respect of Water Induced Disaster
Low lying area, 80% area below 9.0m
Flat topography, mild to low slope (10-20cm/km)
Located at the outfall of 3 mighty rivers
Large coastal exposures, east to west along the south
High population density
Infrastructure development and rapid urbanization
Limited coverage of flood forecasting
Limited disaster preparedness capability, e.g limited
flood shelters
18. The geographical location
and average land levels of
Bangladesh are conducive
to Flood, Erosion, Storm
Surge
Average inundation 22%
68% area inundated in 1998
Over 3000 km river bank
will be eroded by 2025
Water scarcity in 7
months a year
About 1/4 th of the country
susceptible to tidal surges
19. How to cope with the new challenges
Sea level rise
Increase in salinity intrusion
Increase in evaporation
Increase in snow melt in the Himalayas
Drought
Decrease in precipitation in dry season
Increase in precipitation in monsoon
Impact on agriculture
Prolonged monsoon
& fisheries
Increase in flooding intensity
Submergence of coastal areas
Cyclone
20. Because of geographical
location, low topography, deltaic
plain, complex river system,
high population, agriculture
dominated economy, huge
losses due to flood, present
level of preparation etc
International bodies including
UNDP has identified
Bangladesh to be the most
vulnerable country in the
world with respect to climate
change and disaster
Joint probability of flood and
cyclone surge…
Bangladesh
The land of
intricate river
Systems
21. National Plans and Policies:
Travelling a long way
1964, IECO Master Plan
1972, IBRD Plan
National Water Plan 1, 1986
National Water Plan 2, 1991
Flood Action Plan, 1989-95
There is no shortage of
national policies, plans
and frameworks – there
is shortage of their
proper application and
integration/implementat
ion
BWFMS, 1995
National Water Policy, 1999
Guidelines for PWM, 2000
NWMP, 2004
National Flood Workshop, 2004
Coastal Zone Policy
Coastal Zone Plan, 2005
Climate Change Strategy 2008
22. Chronological Development of Water Management
Krug Mission Report
1957
Disastrous floods of 1954, 1955 and 1956 focused world attention
on the importance and the need for flood control and water
management in Bangladesh (the then East Pakistan). The report
stressed that water resources development was essential for
higher agricultural production and flood control as central
issue
Recommendation of the Mission Report led to the formulation
of the EPWAPDA Master Plan, 1964
23. Chronological Development of Water Management
EP WAPDA Master Plan
1964
EPWAPDA 1964 Master Plan emphasized to meeting
agricultural demand of water through large scale public
sector development for both dry season (irrigation) and
wet season (flooding) water management.
The Plan identified 63 water development projects.
This initiated the implementation of large scale Flood
Control Drainage (FCD), Flood Control, Drainage &
Irrigation (FCDI) projects including the protection of
most of the Coastal zone against tidal flooding and
Hydropower generation..
24. Chronological Development of Water Management
Land & Water Sector Strategy
1972
The proposed strategy emphasized the need for
quick results from water development efforts in
order to achieve food grain self-sufficiency. It
attached high priority to small and medium sized,
simple, low cost, labour intensive projects.
Although, Government did not accept the study as
a whole but the strategy of the government in the
water development sector was greatly influenced
by the study report.
25. Chronological Development of Water Management
MPO National Water Plan-1
MPO National Water Plan-2
1986
1991
NWP marks the systematic planning practice in Bangladesh
NWP -I , 1987 has set the following investment priorities:
(i)
Minor irrigation schemes, LLP, STWs and DSSTWs
(ii)
Major irrigation schemes (FCDI)
(iii)
Deep tubewells (DTW)
(iv)
Flood Control and Drainage Scheme (FCD).
In NWP-II, a detailed investment programme were prepared. The 20
year (1991-2010) public investment programme gave more emphasis to
FCD than NWP Phase-1. Both NWP's made important contributions to
the knowledge and understanding of the water resources of
Bangladesh. However the report was not accepted by the Government..
26. Chronological Development of Water Management
Flood Action Plan
1989-95
After the disastrous floods of 1987 and 1988, Government as well
as development partner's attention were once again focused to the
flood problem which initiated the Flood Action Plan. Noteworthy
features of FAP are : 26 Studies were conducted.
Attention was paid to urban FCD and non-structural flood
proofing, though agriculture remained the main focus of
regional plans;
Social, environmental and fisheries impacts and people's
participation were given particular emphasis.
Emphasized formulation of National Water Strategy
27. Chronological Development of Water Management
Bangladesh Water & Flood Management Strategy-1995
The BWFMS was the major strategy follow-up to FAP and
became the working policy document for the water sector.
It recommended a 5 year programs involving:
Preparation of National Water Policy
Preparation of a National Water Management Plan.
Strengthening of water sector organizations responsible
for planning, construction, operation and maintenance
28. Policy Statement in NWPo - Related to Disaster Management
Develop early warning and flood-proofing systems to manage natural
disasters like flood and drought
Designate flood risk zones and take appropriate measures to provide
desired levels of protection for life, property, vital infrastructure
agriculture and wetlands.
Guidelines for Protection
Regions of economic importance will be fully protected against floods.
Other critical areas, will be gradually provided reasonable degree of
protection against flood.
In the remaining rural areas, with the exception of those already covered by
existing flood control infrastructure, the people will be motivated to develop
different flood proofing measures such as raising of platform for homesteads,
market places, educational institutions, community centers, etc., and
adjusting the cropping pattern to suit the flood regime.
29. Policy Statement in NWPo - Related to Disaster Management
A system of cost recovery, pricing, and economic incentives/disincentives is
necessary to balance the supply and demand of water.
Cost recovery of services such as flood control, drainage, irrigation, and
wastewater treatment has not been considered adequately
Cost recovery for FC and FCD projects is not envisaged in this policy. In case of
flood control, drainage, and irrigation (FCDI) projects water rates will be charged
for O&M as per Government rules.
Investigate thoroughly important flood control and management issues, such as
the efficacy of coastal polders, for guiding future policy on structural
interventions.
Undertaking any special study, as may be required, for fulfilling the objectives
and programmes envisaged in the NWPo and the Bangladesh Water and Flood
Management Strategy (BWFMS).
30. National Water Management Plan, December 2001
Agriculture & Water Management
8 Programmes
Environment & Aquatic Resources
10 Programmes
Major Cities
17 Programmes
Disaster Management
6 Programmes
Main Rivers
12 Programmes
Towns & Rural Areas
8 Programmes
Institutional Development
10 Programmes
Enabling Environment
13 Programmes
Total
84
Programmes
31. BWDB, WARPO,
JRC, RRI,IWM, CEGIS
BUET, DU,
IWM,CEGIS
WB, ADB
RNE, DFID
etc.
Universities, NGO,
Pvt Organisations
Development
Partners
RHD
Ministry of
Ministry of
Water
Resources Environment
Ministry of
& Forest
LGRD
Communication
Management
and Relief
Ministry of
Ministry of
Defence
Ministry of
Works
LGED, DPHE,
DWASA , CWASA
Ministry of
Disaster
Key
Organizations
Ministry of
Agriculture
DoE, DoFo
Ministry of
Shipping
Ministry of
Fisheries &
Live Stocks
BARC, BADC,
BARI, SRDI
DoF
BMD,
SPARRSO,
SoB,
RAJUK
BIWTA
DMB
32. BWDB
entrusted with the task of
Organizations under the Ministry ofisWater Resources
Bangladesh Water
Development Board (BWDB)
Water Resource Planning
Organization (WARPO)
River Research Institute (RRI)
Joint Rivers Commission (JRC)
Bangladesh Haor & Wetlands
Development Board (BHWDB)
Center for Environmental &
Geographic Information Services (CEGIS)
Institute of Water Modelling (IWM)
managing the country’s water
resources through implementation of
WARPO is an apex organization
flood control, drainage & irrigation
under river erosion, dredging, land
(FCDI), the Ministry of Water
Resources, dealing with nationwide
reclamation,
coastal
zone
water resources development The
management, GW planning. and
Waterallied project for Planning Act
other Resources socio-economic
development
the country. Its main
1992 and theofNational Water Policy
principalGovernment ofis Bangladesh
IWRM and
of the of operation
active beneficiary participation.. various
mandated and assigned
important responsibilities
33. Organizations under the Ministry of Water Resources
Bangladesh Water
Development Board (BWDB)
Water Resource Planning
Organization (WARPO)
River Research Institute (RRI)
Joint Rivers Commission (JRC)
Bangladesh Haor & Wetlands
Development Board (BHWDB)
Center for Environmental &
Geographic Information Services (CEGIS)
Institute of Water Modelling (IWM)
A research institute that conducts
A research institute that conducts
tests (physical models) & research in
tests (physical models) & research in
the fields of River, Estuarine &
the fields of River, Estuarine &
Coastal Hydraulics at local level
Coastal Hydraulics at local level
including Soil Mechanics, Material
including Soil Mechanics, Material
Testing & Sediment Technology.
Testing & Sediment Technology.
Performs integrated environmental
analysis using technology such as
GIS, RS, databases and IT and
provides solutions to challenges
Provides services in theresources
field of
related to natural
Water Modelling, Computational
management.
Hydraulics & allied sciences for
integrated
water
resource
management to enhance the quality
of planning, implementation &
monitoring activities.
34. DDM is mandated to implement the objectives of Disaster Management Act by
reducing the overall vulnerability from different impacts of disaster by
undertaking risk reduction activities;
DDM conducts humanitarian assistance programs to enhance the capacity of
poor and disadvantaged, coordinates programmers of various GO and NGOs
related to disaster risk reduction and emergency response.
DDM is responsible to execute the principles, plans, directions and
recommendations of GoB related to disaster management.
DDM conducts research, organizes workshops and training programs,
publishes its reports and documents and provide various policy advisory
services to the concerned Ministry of the Government of Bangladesh.
36. What has been done to reduce the huge
losses of lives and properties?
Flood Mitigation
Structural measures
•
•
Embankments
Hydraulic Structures
Non-structural measures
• Flood forecasting and dissemination
• Flood preparedness, etc.
• Flood relief
Since flood can not avoided in Bangladesh then what can
be done to compensate the flood losses, properties and
to minimize the sufferings?
• Flood Insurance
37. What has been achieved so far?
Structural measures:
Flood protection – over 10,000 km flood protection
embankment
Flood and Cyclone Shelters
39. What has been achieved so far?
Non-structural measure
Established a Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre
Flood Forecasting Model (Super Model) has been
re-calibrated 2007-08 conditions
Forecast, using Super Model, is generated for
up to 5 days (24 hrs, 48 hrs,72 hrs .. ) on regular
basis during monsoon, Apr- Spt
10 days also during monsoon (CFAN), AprSept, not widely circulated
Dissemination of warning through Government and
NGO initiatives
DMB plays a great role for Disaster Management
40. Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh
Chronological development
In the initial stage of the establishment of FFWC in 1972, there was 10
real-time flood monitoring points where forecast information was based
on the correlation analysis and Muskingum-Conge flood routing model.
During the period of 1989-94, through UNDP assistance project and
DANIDA funded Flood Action Plan 10 (FAP10) project, hydrological/
hydraulic approach utilizing MIKE11 was employed and forecast was
made at 16 locations.
During the time of 1995-99, through extension of FAP10, expansion of
Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS) using MIKE11 with GIS
facilities was made and forecast was increased at 30 locations.
In 2000 to 2005 period, the model area (super model) was extended,
and forecast stations were increased to 38 no. under another DANIDA
funded project.
A project funded by CDMP-II is on going under FFWC, which is being
conducted to increase forecast lead-time from 3 days to 5 days
including generation of flood forecast at three selected projects.
41. Flood Forecasting & Warning System in Bangladesh
Water Level Forecast: 1-5days & 10days (probabilistic)
Forecasting Output
Forecast bulletin
Flood hydrograph
Thana status map
Flood map
Role of IWM in Flood Forecasting
IWM with DHI developed &
updated the FFWC model
Provides modelling and technical
support to FFWC
Training to BWDB staff
Future flood Forecasting
10 days/ Seasonal Forecasting
Low Flow Forecasting
46. Location Specific FF
At 3 key Locations
Brahmaputra Right
Embankment
Irrigation Project
- PIRDP
- MDIP
National Highway
- Dhaka – Mawa Road
47. Location Specific FF
Brahmaputra Right
Embankment
BRE (mid sixties) is an Earthen
Embankment, 220km from
Gaibhanda
The river Jamuna is morphologically
very active and erosion prone
Along the BRE, from Gaibandha to
Eneatpur, there are 18 nos of Spurs
& Groyane to protect the important
Townships
Forecasting are at 4 locations;
Gaibandha, Sariakandi, Sirajganj &
Enaetpur
and also forecast profile from
Gaibanga to Enaetpur
48.
49.
50. Location Specific FF
Dhaka- Mawa Highway
Dhaka-Mawa road connects
Dhaka with Mawa Ferry Ghat of
the Padma river stretching
through Munshiganj district.
It is a two lane national
highway having length of 36 km.
Highway is stretched through
a low lying floodplain between
the Padma and the Dhaleswari
river which, Figure attached
Further details of the road will
be given in next progress.
Proposed WL Measurement
Locations
51.
52. Location Specific FF
Irrigation Project PIRDP
PIRDP is located in Northwest region
bounded by Baral-Hurasagar river on the
north, the Ganges on the South, the Jamuna
on the East Abdulpur on the west.
Project area is in 8 Upazila: Pabna
Sadar, Ishurdi, Sujanagar, Faridpur, Bera,
Catmohar, Santhia and Atgharia of Pabna,
2Upazila: Lalpur and Baraigram of
Rajshahi & 1upazila of Sirajganj district.
Project area is 196,680 ha of which
184,534 ha FC, Net irrigable area is
145,263 ha. The project comprises FC of
157.55 km, drainage K of 145.21 km, DR
23 nos & irrigation K of 254.76 km.
RT WL are proposed at Bera PS
53.
54. FCDI project
management using
Flood Forecast
•
Pump operation
•
Emergency
maintenance of
embankment
•
Evacuation of people
in the event of
embankment failure
• Total area under FCDI is
17,584 ha.
• The project comprises of
FC Emb of 60.7km, 4
Pump Stations, Drainage
K of 125.5 km, Irri. K of
218km & 69 Regulators
Meghna Dhonagoda FCDI Project
55.
56.
57. Flash Flood in Northeast Region
Major Activities
Physical understanding of Northeast Region
Review past attempts for flash flood model
development in Bangladesh and elsewhere
Develop Flash Flood Model of the Northeast region
using the Northeast Region Model
Investigate the possibility of using of Radar data
from Moulvibazar Radar installed recently
Investigate the possibility of using 3-day shortduration rainfall forecast provided by ADPC (WRF),
BMD(WRF) and NCMWRF (WRF)
Model Performance checking for hindcast period
66. Detection Range of
the Proposed
Radar System
New Doppler Radar in
Moulvibazar (JICA
fund)
Covers most part of
Meghna basin
Calibration of RADAR
against ground measured
data is needed
Digital form of data
67. Atomization of Data Processing
A computer based Software System
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
http://www.imdguwahati.gov.in/rf24.htm
http://121.241.116.157/dynamic/weather/delhiregion.html
http://www.imdkolkata.gov.in/maxminrf.php
http://amssdelhi.gov.in/dynamic/weather/wxtable.html
http://imdguwahati.gov.in/dwr.htm
http://imdnagpur.gov.in/dwr.php
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/today.htm
http://www.nepalhomepage.com/hotlinks/weather/index.php
Key Activities
o Data Acquisition
o Data Processing for Model Input
o Data Processing Output dissemination
68.
69. The overall picture
Climate Change Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Global warming will hit through water:
Through climate change :
- changes in the hydrological cycle
- sea level rise
- increased water temperatures
Through increased climate variability:
- more serious and frequent extremes,
such as floods, droughts, typhoons
70.
71. Impact of Climate Change on Flood
Dhaka Flood Protection Embankment
AT MIRPUR
Water Level (mPWD)
11
10
9
Crest Level = 10m
CC2080 (FL = 8.36m)
8
7
6
5
Design FL = 7.8m
CC2050 (FL = 8.14m)
C/S
R/S
4
3
2
Drainage congestion in Dhaka City
due to CC would be a serious issue.
72. Inundation of the coastal area due combined effect of SLR
and increase of precipetation
19981998 Flood to SLR 60cm & increase of precipitation
Flood due due to SLR 120cm & increase of precipitation (ECHAM
1998 25% increase of SLR
(ECHAMScenario):Flood due to flooding
A2 A2 Scenario): 18% increase of flooding
73. Adaptation
Height of the ground floor should be determined considering the inundation
risk map of that area
9.5 m PWD (for worst scenario 2050)
Additional Height= 3.5 m
6.0 m PWD
Existing Height= 4.0 m
2.0 m PWD
Kutubdia Island
Flood Shelter of Bangladesh Red
Crescent Society (BDRCS)
74. Climate Change Impact on Water logging
Existing No. of Structure
Affected Polder
(Water Logging)
[meter]
No. of Structure
Adaptation of Drainage System
No. of Vent
Additional No.
( BDT. million)
(1.52m X 1.83m) of Vent Required
Time Series Water Level (SWV_98-99_HD-Base-Modify-2.res11)
[meter]
3.2
3.1
P3
30
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
51
Outfall River
3.0
P10-12
920
Polder-3
2.1
15
25
23
200
36
720
41
1.9
460
10
2.0
820
1.8
2.4
2.2
46
2.2
2.5
2.3
Time Series Water Level (SWV_98-99_HD-Base-Modify-2.res11)
2.3
P17/1
11
11
1.7
1.6
2.1
1.5
2.0
1.4
1.9
1.8
P24
11
40
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.5
1.3
P25
13
45
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.2
Base
1.1
P36
22:00:00
8-9-1998
00:00:00
9-9-1998
02:00:00
P39/2
04:00:00
SLR 2050
06:00:00
08:00:00
10:00:00
20
12:00:00
SLR 2100
14:00:00
4
16:00:00
18:00:00
Base
0.7
20:00:00
22:00:00
144
00:00:00 02:00:00
10-9-1998
33
0.6
25-7-1998
43
4-8-1998
10
SLR 2050
14-8-1998
24-8-1998
SLR 2100
860
3-9-1998
13-9-1998
200
23-9-1998
75. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
Loss of Crop Production due to MSL rise
76. Impact of Climate Change on Salinity Intrusion
(5ppt Salinity line)
Khulna
Barisal
95 km
Patuakhali
Bhola
Barguna
55 km
Sundarbans
Hiron Point
0 SLR
60 cm SLR
120 cm SLR
77. Impact of SLR(120 cm) on Drinking Water in the
Halda River
Mohora
Base
Condition
Increase of Salinity with No Kaptai
Release+120 cm SLR
( Worst Scenario)
78. Impact of SLR(120 cm) on Fish Habitat in the
Halda River
Mohora
Increase of Salinity with No Kaptai
Release+ 120 cm SLR
(Worst Scenario)
Base
Condition
79. Way forward
People’s participation specially in the flood prone areas by
providing information, awareness development and
increasing resilience
More emphasis to given on adaptation in the agricultural
sectors, seed variety, cropping pattern, management
practice etc.
Disaster risk incorporated town planning to be introduce for
reduction of urban flooding, water congestion etc.
Reassess and redesign of the flood embankments including
submergible embankments in NE region considering climate
change impacts.
80. Way forward
Redesign the National Highways, Railways and other key
infrastructures etc considering the climate change impacts
Development of early warning of storm surge inundation
forecasting covering entire Bangladesh.
Reengineering of the coastal polders by phases for Sea level
rise and storm surge for the safety of life and livelihood of
coastal community.
There are need of new cyclone shelters in the newly defined
high risk areas specially in the Barisal and Khulna division.
81. Way forward
Reassess and redesign of the flood embankments including
submergible embankments in NE region considering climate
change impacts.
Redesign the National Highways, Railways and other key
infrastructures etc considering the climate change impacts
Development of early warning of storm surge inundation
forecasting covering entire Bangladesh.
Reengineering of the coastal polders by phases for Sea level
rise and storm surge for the safety of life and livelihood of
coastal community.
There are need of new cyclone shelters in the newly defined
high risk areas specially in the Barisal and Khulna division.
82. Way forward
There are knowledge gaps right from downscaling of the
climate model to the considerations of glacial melt or
blending of meteorological science with the hydrology.
Capacity building in these areas will be of prime importance.
Regional cooperation at the basin level for prediction of
climate change impacts and adaptation measures, sharing of
knowledge and development of resources (conservation of
water through upstream reservoirs, flood moderation and
forecasting, navigation, hydro-power etc.)
The existing Bay models are capable of forecasting storm
surge induced flooding. These models extend from Indian to
Myanmar coast. These models can for the basis for regional
cooperation
83. Cost of doing nothing..…. retreat to the top of the Embankment
Thank You
qayyum1958@gmail.com