‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.

1. Sustainable Food Wedges:
A portfolio of solutions for sustainably feedin
the planet
Tim Searchinger, Technical Director, WRI
Associate Research Scholar, Princeton University
(tsearchi@princeton.edu)
September 2012
Photo: Espen Faugstad

2. INPUT TO
World Resources Report
Core collaborators: INRA, CIRAD
Historic Collaborators: World Bank, UNDP,
UNEP
Photo: Espen Faugstad

3. AAgriculture-related emissions
could be 15 gigatons in 2050
Sources: Food
increases from
Bruinsma 2009
(FAO);
Various sources
other

4. “Wedges” framing ILLUSTRATIVE
MtCO2e / year from agriculture
Business as usual
Demand control
- Reduce losses & waste?
- Diet?
- Population?
More land efficient
Production
CO2 -Yield gains?
- Intensify pasture?
- Aquaculture?
Reduce methane, nitrous
oxide emissions
4-5 Ton CO2 target
for agriculture and land
use change

5. FAO Estimated Global Food Waste is 33% of Tons
In 1000 tonnes but 23% of Calories
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000 Developed World
150,000
Developing World
100,000
50,000
0
Cereals Roots And Oilseeds and Fruits and Meat Fish and Milk
Tubers Pulses Vegetables Seafood
in trillions of kcals
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500 Developed World
2,000
1,500 Developing World
1,000
500
0
Cereals Roots And Oilseeds and Fruits and Meat Fish and Seafood Milk
Tubers Pulses Vegetables
Source: WRI calculations based on food balance sheet data from FAOSTAT 2009 and waste PRELIMINARY
percentages from Gustavsson et al. 2011.

6. But where it is wasted differs regionally
Estimated waste of meat
throughout the life cycle
20%
18%
16%
14%
Percent wasted
12%
10%
8% Europe (incl. Russia)
6% Sub Saharan Africa
4%
2%
0%
Agricultural Postharvest Processing & Distribution Consumption
production handling & packaging
storage
Stage in food life cycle
Source: Global Food Losses and Food Waste, FAO. 2011.

7. Gstavvson, FAO 2011

8. Purdue Cowpea Storage Project
https://ag.purdue.edu/ipia/pics/Pages/home.aspx

9. 4. Historically, with increased wealth typically comes a
shift in diet toward more meat
Changing consumption of meat in relation to GNI*, 1961-2007
*Gross National Income
Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.” Government Office for Science, London.

10. FEED EFFICIENCY FOR DIFFERENT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS
Wirsenius et al., Ag Systems. 2010

11. FAO ESTIMATED PER PERSON LIVESTOCK
CONSUMPTION GROWTH (Bruinsma 2009)
Livestock kcal per Beef kcal per
person/day person/day
Region 2005/07 2050 Increase 2005/072 2050 increase
World 375 454 21% 39 49 26%
US & Canada 892 1011 113 114
Other OECD 508 624 56 66
China 531 790 24 59
India 158 291 6 11
Sub-Saharan
Africa 106 140 26 34

12. Some Projections to Feed World by
2050
Globiom FAO
• 266 million additional • 120 million hectares
hectares cropland increase in cropland in
• 121 million hectares tropics
grassland • 50 million hectare decrease
• 343 million hectares decline in developed countries
unmanaged forest (offset by
103 million hectares of • Effective increase of 93
plantations) million hectares through
• 168 million hectare decline higher cropping intensity
“other” natural vegetation

13. Can We Boost Yields Enough to
Avoid Cropland Expansion?

14. “Guinea Savanna” is not generally low environmental cost
reserve land.
Carbon
loss/yield
ratio is high
relative to
world
average 21
tC/ton of
maize yield
Analysis by Thornton, Notenbaert in
Searchinger et al, submitted PNAS

15. Feeding Ruminants Uses Enormous Quantities
of Forage and Other Non-Crop Feeds
2030
Reproduced
from
Wirsenius
2010,
Agricultural
Systems

16. FAO Data
Predicted 2000-2010
suggests
Pasture
& Cropland Expansion
pasture has
in Latin America
been 2/3 Net
Wassenaar et al., Global Env. Change
17:86-104 (2007)
Ag Expansion

17. Results Analysis & slide by B. Strassburg, GAEA
• Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units;
• Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units;
 Current productivity only 32-34% of potential
Current Productivity Potential Productivity

18. Do Higher
Yields Spare
Forests?
v.
Borlaug Angelsen & Kaimowitz
Brazil

19. High yields in tropics will reduce cropland/ton of food
but will help shift world crop production into the tropics

20. FAO 2011 Forest Remote Sensing Survey (Initial Results) (2011):
2000-2005: 15.2 Mha/y gross forest loss offset by 8.8 Mha reforestation
1990-2000: 14.2 Mha/y gross loss offset by 10.1 reforestation

21. Solving the Paradox?
• Integrate ag efforts with REDD
• Focus export ag on high-value,high-
labor labor intense products – NOT
cereals, oilseeds, beef
• Help small farmers
• Carefully plan road network

22. How much energy could ALL the world
crops and timber produce?

23. Crop Yields Needed 2006-2020 to Provide Food and 10.3% of World
Transport Fuel (E4Tech Scenario) With and Without Biofuels Without Land
6.0%
use Change Compared To 1996-2006 Trend and FAPRI Projections
5.0%
2.6%
Compound Annual Growth Rate in Yield
4.0%
3.0%
0.9% 3.8%
2.0% 0.8%
3.1%
1.0% 2.0%
1.6% 1.8%
1.2% 1.2% 1.4%
0.6% 0.8%
0.5%
0.0% -0.1%
Cereals Cereals Cereals Oilseeds Oilseeds Oilseeds Sugar Sugar Sugar Palm Palm Palm
Crops Crops Crops
-1.0%
1996-2006 Trend Non Biofuel food demand
Biofuel, adjusted for by products FAPRI 2006-2019 Projection

24. 24

25. Carbon Payback Times for Biofuels from Perennial Grasses in “Guinea Savanna”
Searchinger et al. PNAS submitted (modeling by Tim Beringer, Potsdam Institute)

26. Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050:
Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to 1.96 billion
(medium estimate UN) – 165% calorie growth FAO)
Current 2050 - Current 2050 - FAO projection
consumption and &10% imports n (2830
% of Imports kcal)
Cropland needed at 154 million 357 million 440 million
current yields for domestic
food consumption
(hectares)
Cereal yield needed to 1.23 t/ha 2.81 t/ha 3.9t/ha
avoid new land clearing

27. Most of the World Has Lower Fertility Fertility
Low infant
mortality
Access to
family
planning
Education, job
opportunities
for women
World Bank data through
http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/compare#country=bd:br:sv:
pe:uz:vn

28. Sub-Saharan Africa Total Birth Rates Still 5.5
< 2.1
2.2–3.1
3.2–4.1
> 4.2
n/a
With birth rate of 2.1 instead of 3 in 2050, can hold population to 1.6
rather than 1.96 and 2100 to close to same Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2010 revision
If SSA total fertility rate remains at 5.5, its population will reach 2.7
billion by 2050 & 14.5 billion by 2100

29. Boosting Girls’ Lower Secondary
Education in Sub-Saharan Africa is Key
< 20
20–40
40–60
60-80
> 80
n/a Countries with TFR 2.1 have
Source: Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
100% of girls in at least lower
secondary education
Countries with 2.2-3 have 60-80% girls in lower
secondary education

30. Agroforestry is starting to take off in Africa
Niger – 5 Million Hectares
• Ethiopia (1,000,000 ha); Mali (400,000 -
500,000 ha); Burkina Faso (200,000 ha);
Zambia and Malawi (280,000 households)
Source: McGahuey, M. “Africa’s Regreening: Its Integral Role in Increasing Agricultural Productivity and Strengthening
Resiliency”, presentation at WRI Symposium on Regreening, March 1, 2012.

31. The potential for expanding this approach is vast
Source: Mahamane, L. (AFF). Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration in Niger.
Presentation to the United Nations, February 2011.
PRELIMINARY

32. An approach for maximizing dryland agricultural productivity
+ then
Water harvesting Agroforestry Micro-dosing
Source: C. Reij, personal communication

33. IPCC 2007 MITIGATION REPORT WAS ALL ABOUT CARBON
SEQUESTRATION

34. The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains
• No Till?
– Depth
• Baker et al. (2007);
• Blanco-Canqui & Lal (2008)
– Nitrous Oxide
• Developing world
– Alternative uses of residues
– Mulches transfer carbon rather
than add carbon
but agroforestry . . .

35. Comparative Emissions from Dairy Cows
Gerber et al., FAO (2010)
Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram
per kilogram of milk of milk
Accessible improvements – cut emissions
per unit of milk by ½ to 2/3.
High protein shrub
Improved pasture
Increased stover digestibility
Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS

36. Trials of nitrogen fertilizer reductions in Shaanxi
resulted in no loss of crop yield
Fertilizer reduction
• Wheat: 30%
• Maize: 50%
• Cucumbers under plastic: >60%
Source: China-UK project, 2007-2010, Shaanxi Province, northwest China

37. Strategies for reducing impacts (e.g., GHG) from
paddy rice
1. Removal of rice straw
2. Use sandier soils
3. Potassium
4. Right varieties
5. Avoid flooding in off-season
6. Rotations
7. Mid-season draw downs
8. System of rice intensification (SRI)?

38. AQUACULTURE MUST PROVIDE ALL FUTURE FISH
GROWTH
World Fish Production
Million tons
160
140
120
Aquaculture (outside of China)
Aquaculture (China)
100
Capture fisheries (food)
80 Capture fisheries (non-food uses)
60
40
20
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Note: Assumes all farmed fish were for food.
Source: FAO. 2012. State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, Food Balance Sheets,
FishStatJ.

39. The aquaculture industry is becoming more efficient
Fish-in-fish-out ratios for major aquaculture species groups, 1995-2020
Salmon
Trout
Eel
Marine fish
Shrimp
Freshwater crustaceans 1995
Tilapia 2006
2020 predicted
Catfish
Milkfish
Non-filter-feeding carp
Total major fed species
Total all aquaculture
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Source: Tacon and Metian 2008. PRELIMINARY

40. Feed Efficiency of Aquaculture is High (like chicken)
% of all protein Kcal Protein
Species group production efficiency efficiency
Fed aquaculture 76.57%
Catfish 6.58%
Channel catfish 0.94% 31.43% 18.56%
Pangasius catfish 2.86% 26.38% 21.18%
Carps (fed) 37.43% 33.60% 17.37%
Eels 1.15% 39.43% 18.44%
Salmonids 5.15%
Atlantic salmon 3.05% 45.58% 35.59%
Rainbow trout 1.56% 36.56% 32.37%
Shrimps and Prawns 8.89%
Giant tiger prawn 1.44% 32.06% 20.22%
Whiteleg shrimp 4.96% 31.37% 22.35%
Tilapias 7.47% 21.17% 16.06%
Other fed finfish 8.58%
Milkfish 1.73% 43.69% 20.11%
Other aquatic animals 1.30%
Unfed aquaculture 23.43%
Mollusks 6.41% N/A N/A
Carps (filter-feeding) 14.31% N/A N/A
Other unfed freshwater fish 2.71%
PRELIMINARY
Sources : WRI calculations from data provided by World Fish Center

41. Example of Aquaculture Growth Scenario to 2050
World Fish Production
Aquaculture
Million tons Capture fisheries
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year Total aquaculture Wild fish converted
production (Mt) to feed (Mt)
2008 53 16.5
2020 (proj.) 80 14.4
2050 (proj.) 140 25.2
Source: FAO FishStatJ. 2012, author’s calculations
Assumptions to 2050: 1) capture fisheries production constant at 90 Mt/year, 2) aquaculture production grows at 2
Mt/year, 3) same aquaculture species mix as 2010, 4) fish-in-fish-out ratios predicted for 2020 (Tacon and Metian
2008) remain unchanged to 2050.

42. INCREASED LAND USE EFFICIENCY
IMPORTANT
Inland ponds 11.5 million hectares
Direct land use for pond aquaculture: 0.66 tonnes/ha
total land use for chicken & pork ~ 1 tonne/hectare
Our
calculatio
ns from
Hall et a.
(World
Fish
Center)
2011 data

43. Sum Up
• Diet
• Losses & waste
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Pasture intensification & livestock feeding
efficiency
• Couple with natural area protection (not just
forests but savannahs & wetlands)
• Bioenergy
• Aquaculture