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Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet the SDGs

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Keynote presentation by Philip Thornton, CCAFS Flagship Leader on Priorities and Policies for CSA, at the 3rd Conference on Agriculture and Climate Change in Budapest on 25 March 2019.

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Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet the SDGs

  1. 1. Philip Thornton 3rd Conference on Agriculture and Climate Change, Budapest, 25 March 2019 Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet the SDGs Photo: G. Smith (CIAT)
  2. 2. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security • Are we on track to meet the challenge? • Transforming food systems • Contributing to the SDGs Outline
  3. 3. http://www.csiro.au/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Sustainable-Agriculture-Feeding-the-World.aspx
  4. 4. Steffen et al. Science (2015); updated from Rockstrom et al. (2009) Current status of key planetary boundaries … but what of the future?
  5. 5. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Fooddemand(kcal/yearx1015) Balancing food supply and demand Reducing the Demand Filling the Production Gap Sustaining productive capacity Keating et al. (2014)
  6. 6. FAO, 2018, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World
  7. 7. FAO, 2018
  8. 8. Smith & Myers, Nature Climate Change, 2018 Risk of inadequate nutrient intake from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm • CO2 fertilisation in C3 crops: more carbohydrates produced at the expense of other nutrients • 175 million more people zinc deficient (122 million protein deficient) by 2050 owing to rising CO2 • Similar for forages: 60% of grasses globally are C3 and susceptible to CO2 effects on nutritional quality
  9. 9. Rural labour capacity loss due to extreme heat exposure: change in 2006-2016 relative to the 1986–2008 average Watts et al., The Lancet (2018)
  10. 10. Rural labour capacity loss due to extreme heat exposure: change in 2006-2016 relative to the 1986–2008 average Watts et al., The Lancet (2018) • Increased morbidity, mortality associated with heat stress • Increased incidences of chronic kidney disease in agricultural populations (Central America, southern Africa): due to heat stress / dehydration, also toxic exposure to agrochemicals? • Many impacts not well understood • Early warning systems, shade and potable water provision, education and health care facilities
  11. 11. Boone et al., GCB (2018) Spatial distribution of percentage change by 2050s and RCP8.5 in relation to 1971-1980 Mean changes for 2 emissions pathways: intermediate (RCP4.5, blue) and high-end (RCP8.5, orange) Projected changes in Aboveground Net Primary Productivity (ANPP) in Africa’s rangelands
  12. 12. Mean annual total standing dry matter (A) and animal stocking rates (B) under different imposed drought intensities and durations Godde et al., submitted
  13. 13. Godde et al., submitted Variance explained by the mean, seasonal variability (CVP-inter) and annual variability (CVP-intra) of imposed drought intensities and durations Impacts of increasing seasonality and intra-annual variability of rainfall on animal stocking rates: • Considerably greater than shifts in means • Understudied, under-appreciated
  14. 14. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security • Are we on track to meet the challenge? • Transforming food systems • Contributing to the SDGs Outline
  15. 15. 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089 20 40 60 80 100 PERCENTAGEOF YIELDPROJECTIONS 0 2090-2109 0 – -5% -5 – -10% -10 – -25% -25 – -50% -50 – -100% 50 – 100% 25 – 50% 10 – 25% 5 – 10% 0 – 5% Range of Yield Change Increase in Yield Decrease in Yield Projected impact of climate change on crop yields over the 21st century Different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels Porter et al. (2014), AR5, IPCC
  16. 16. 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089 20 40 60 80 100 PERCENTAGEOF YIELDPROJECTIONS 0 2090-2109 0 – -5% -5 – -10% -10 – -25% -25 – -50% -50 – -100% 50 – 100% 25 – 50% 10 – 25% 5 – 10% 0 – 5% Range of Yield Change Increase in Yield Decrease in Yield Projected impact of climate change on crop yields over the 21st century Different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels Porter et al. (2014), AR5, IPCC • Climate change causes crop yield losses; losses to increase with time • Tropics are more vulnerable than temperate regions • Poor are more vulnerable • Climate change is impacting crop yields already; we have already lost 1-10% crop yields • Climate variability has large impacts on crop yields
  17. 17. Is enough adaptation happening? A new global meta-analysis of crop-climate change impact studies published in last 40 years 27,930 data points • Time slice: 9115 for 2020s; 9662 for 2050s and 9153 for 2080s • Spatial scale: 25667 for global; 1551 for regional and national; 712 for site • Publication year: 4781 pre-2000; 23149 post-2000 • Adaptation: 1808 without adaptation; 26122 with adaptation (optimal planting, variety, irrigation and nutrient management,…) • CO2 effects: 26992 with CO2; 11598 without CO2 Aggarwal et al. (2019)
  18. 18. Climate change impacts on cereals: national level, 2020s, and the role of technology (adaptation) with adaptation (blue bands) without adaptation (orange bands) Aggarwal et al. (2019) Latitude Percentagechange
  19. 19. Climate change impacts on cereals at different time slices and the role of technology (adaptation) with adaptation (blue bands) without adaptation (orange bands) Aggarwal et al. (2019)
  20. 20. LAC-Latin America & Caribbean SSA-Sub-Saharan Africa MENA-Middle East & North Africa Aggarwal et al. (2019) High income Upper- middle income Lower- middle income Low income Impacts of climate change with adaptation for different geopolitical, economic and climate groups Average of all crops and time slices NA-North America EAP-East Asia & Pacific ECA-Europe & Central Asia SA-South Asia
  21. 21. Hotspots of climate change based on assessments of its net impacts on crop yield at country scale for the 2050s and the food production gap Food production gap: difference between 2050 food demand and current food supply. Countries with high food gap and high impacts of climate change are most vulnerable. Countries with cropped area <10,000 hectares not shown Aggarwal et al. (2019)
  22. 22. What can be concluded from this meta-analysis? • At country level, some of the impact of climate change on wheat, rice and maize yields to the 2050s can be handled with adaptation • Even with adaptation, there are still country “hotspots” where the food gap is large (difference between 2050 food demand and current food supply) AND impacts of climate change are projected to be large • These country hotspots are cause for serious concern (e.g. India, wheat and maize; several countries in SSA, maize): massive investment, policy and institutional support needed to facilitate adoption • At the country level, some adaptation has been occurring, but …
  23. 23. Aggarwal et al. (submitted) Estimated global crop yield growth rates per year FAOSTAT data (current) and a meta-analysis of integrated assessment projections
  24. 24. At the household level? Global network of CCAFS sites 5 regions, 21 countries, 45 sites, 315 villages, 6300 households
  25. 25. Proportion of four household types from baseline data: 45 sites in 5 regions, 21 countries, 315 villages, 6300 households Region No. sites Proportion of households of each type Food insecure Hanging in Stepping up Stepping out East Africa 8 32.0 42.5 13.6 12.1 Latin America 7 5.7 60.0 20.8 14.1 South Asia 22 9.2 57.7 16.5 16.7 South-East Asia 3 10.2 63.4 11.9 14.5 West Africa 5 13.8 69.6 11.0 5.6 All 45 13.3 57.1 15.7 14.1 • Food insecure: food insecure hhs (> 5 food deficit months per year) • Stepping up: practice changes in the last 10 years involving some intensification • Stepping out: no practice changes, increased off-farm income • Hanging in: none of the above Thornton et al. (2018)
  26. 26. • Globally, annual growth rates in crop yields are less than they need to be • Several countries are facing large food gaps AND large climate change impacts on the major cereals • At local level, in some regions there are too many food- insecure households, and too few households are intensifying their production Are we on track to meet the food production challenge?
  27. 27. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security • Are we on track to meet the challenge? • Transforming food systems • Contributing to the SDGs Outline
  28. 28. “The ultimate goal: to remake Africa in a decade” “Transforming global agriculture and food systems” “Data could inspire agricultural transformation in Africa” “Research and dialogue for a climate-smart and just transformation” “Seeks to promote a paradigm shift to low-emission and climate-resilient development” “We can identify and scale solutions to transform sectors” “Fostering inclusive rural transformation” “Our overarching goals are …… agricultural transformation………” Incremental adjustments in agri-food systems may not be enough: is more drastic action required?
  29. 29. Different food system activities and actors Zurek (2019)
  30. 30. DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Environmental DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. nutrition, business, political stability Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food Security Social,Political,Business,andBiophysicalEnvironments Finding appropriate intervention points in a complex adaptive system Zurek (2019)
  31. 31. Six key elements for transforming food systems under a changing climate Loboguerrero et al. (2019)
  32. 32. Reshaping supply chains, food retail, marketing and procurement Consumer behaviour and the retail sector are driving the food system today more than farmers Many options • New models of business to-business coordination • New diets and consumer choices (e.g. urbanisation, supermarkets) • Managing food loss and waste Challenges • Effects of interventions not easy to envisage • Interactive socioeconomic and environmental outcomes • Wide range of power and vested interests, and fragmented governance • Avoiding marginalisation of the poorest
  33. 33. • Cattle and goat numbers fell by 70% across northern Kenya during the drought of 2005/06 Reshaping supply chains: shifting to camels in arid northern Kenya • Widespread adaptation response: switch from cattle to camels (need less water, eat arid shrubs, generate more milk): camel population has >tripled in 15 years • Initially big market constraints (animals, hides, no value chain) • Increased government support via restocking programmes, extension services, veterinary care and infrastructure
  34. 34. Communications and banking systems have been transformed Utilise innovations in other sectors to reach tens of millions of smallholders Mobile telephony in Africa → 2005 cell phone penetration in developing countries was 23% Digitalisation of agriculture 2017 there were 960 million mobile subscriptions across Africa, with 80% penetration
  35. 35. Digitalisation of agriculture
  36. 36. Technology options: making better use of the “back catalogue” from 50+ years of research for development Rosenstock et al. 2019 Compendium of Climate Smart Agriculture practices: >12,500 data points comparing conventional with CSA practices in eastern and southern Africa
  37. 37. Technological change can generate: 1. Very rapid sea changes in social and cultural systems 2. Transformation in agriculture and food systems Current agricultural technology options will not be able to feed 9 billion people and reach the sustainable development goals simultaneously Some examples Robotics in agriculture Alternative protein sources Robotics in agriculture Drones Artificial intelligence Biofortified crops Genetic modification assisted domestication of new crops Vertical agriculture Biologicals replacing artificial inputs Molecular printing → Near-ready and blue-sky technology Impact on SDGs IMPLEMENTATION Technology as an ingredient of food-systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs (CSIRO & CCAFS, 2019)
  38. 38. Global costs of adaptation per annum could range from: ✓ US$140 billion to US$300 billion by 2030; and ✓ US$280 billion to US$500 billion by 2050 The financing gap for adaptation in agriculture in Africa is $20-30 billion per year by 2030 Financing is available to meet adaptation / mitigation targets: some from public institutions like the Green Climate Fund, but most from the private sector • De-risking private finance • Insurance incentivizing technology uptake Millan (2019), World Bank & UNEP (2016) Innovative finance to leverage public & private investments
  39. 39. Climate change affects all sectors of the economy and agriculture in particular key trends and unforeseen developmentsScenario-based approach for forward- looking assessments can be critical for a “default future” and to adopt new strategies Important to identify Transition risks may affect their portfolios. Resulting from the transition to low-carbon and resilient global food systems Innovative finance • Developing business cases for private sector investments • Developing innovate financing mechanisms – e.g. the Climate Smart Lending Platform for making lending deals between local lenders and smallholder farmers who adopt sustainable and climate resilient agricultural practices
  40. 40. Gender considerations of different CSA-sensitive practices Adapted from World Bank, FAO and IFAD, 2015; modified by Nelson & Huyer 2016 Requirements for adoption of practice Relative amount of time until benefits are realized Potential for women to benefit from increased productivity Female and youth labour availability Female access to and control of land Female access to water for agriculture Female access to cash and ability to spend it Gender impact: women’s control of income from practice Conservation agriculture High Low-medium High Low Low High Low Improved home gardens High High High High High Low High Empowerment and social inclusion
  41. 41. Gender considerations of different CSA-sensitive practices Adapted from World Bank, FAO and IFAD, 2015; modified by Nelson & Huyer 2016 Requirements for adoption of practice Relative amount of time until benefits are realized Potential for women to benefit from increased productivity Female and youth labour availability Female access to and control of land Female access to water for agriculture Female access to cash and ability to spend it Gender impact: women’s control of income from practice Conservation agriculture High Low-medium High Low Low High Low Improved home gardens High High High High High Low High Empowerment and social inclusion Relative scores for 6 dimensions of the enabling environment
  42. 42. Making agriculture an attractive livelihood option for young people in rural areas • Strategies used to engage with the private sector can also help bring in young people to agribusiness • Innovative ways to overcome the constraint of access to credit • Massive opportunities in the food system, such as: ▪ equipment manufacturing and sales ▪ ag input supply ▪ processing and value addition ▪ nutrition education ▪ food vending
  43. 43. Global to local policies for transformational food systems Rawe et al. (2019)
  44. 44. Country-level leverage points: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement Updated from Richards et al. (2015)
  45. 45. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security • Are we on track to meet the challenge? • Transforming food systems • Contributing to the SDGs Outline
  46. 46. Relationships of climate change actions in the food system to the SDGs (Campbell et al.,2018)
  47. 47. Impact of fertiliser nitrogen (N) use on the achievement of SDGs and for situations where too little, too much or optimal levels of fertiliser N are consumed (Campbell et al., COSUST, 2018)
  48. 48. Transforming developing-country agriculture: which development pathways? Alston & Pardey, J Economic Perspectives (2014)
  49. 49. Transforming developing-country agriculture: which development pathways? • Intensification and land consolidation? Farming in 2030: more inequality in farm incomes, sizes, technologies, market linkages • 30% of most food commodities in SSA & Asia produced on farms ≤2 ha; 75% on farms <20 ha • 560 million farms today, maybe 700 million? by 2030 (most increases in Africa, Asia). How to enable the sustainable intensification needed? Herrero et al. (2017), Campbell & Thornton (2014) Alston & Pardey, J Economic Perspectives (2014)
  50. 50. Transforming developing-country agriculture and food systems • … to feed a billion more people in Africa and Asia in the face of climate change, while reducing the carbon cost of farming (but not via more land: not enough for which the economic and environmental costs of conversion would be acceptable) • … to achieve desired outcomes of the SDGs, like ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture, by 2030 (only 11 years away)
  51. 51. p.thornton@cgiar.org www.ccafs.cgiar.org Thank you

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