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Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or constitutes any investment advice or recommendation of any security or other financial instrument.  BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK believes that the information herein was obtained from reliable sources but does not guarantee its accuracy.
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],List of speakers ,[object Object]
European bond pipeline ,[object Object],Utilities Autos Other EDP VW K+S E.on Peugeot BHP RWE Renault Xstrata Iberdrola Rio Tinto Gas de France Holcim
Raw data on potential new issuance
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],InBev
Stock borrowing in InBev Copyright: Data Explorers
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Details of the InBev Trade
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Infineon Copyright: Data Explorers
ArcelorMittal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Copyright: Data Explorers
Expected rights issue candidates Company Catalyst % stock on loan (change on week) Bilfinger Berger (NR) To fund acquisitions 2.15% (-2.19%) Immofinanz  Awaiting AGM results- first step towards merger with ImmoEast 8.57% (+9.0%) RSA Insurance Targeting AIG LatAM assets – leading shareholder expecting EUR 1bn deal 0.71 (+156%) Barratts EUR 500m deal expected- second wave of UK housebuilders exp end September- advisers appointed 5.30% (+18.5% ) Alstria Pitched - planning to cut debt without rights issue, could use proceeds for acquisitions. Not short term 0.47% (+3.2%)
[object Object],Predicting future rights issues The companies that would be hardest hit by the higher spread would be those with the highest net debt to equity or net debt to ebitda ratio.  Typically, a ratio of 3x net debt to ebitda is used as a rule of thumb to indicate trouble ahead.
Rights issues in the UK ,[object Object],The following tables show the net debt and equity position for a number of large nonfinancial companies in the DX research universe in UK,
Rights issues in Europe ,[object Object],[object Object],The following tables show the net debt and equity position for a number of large nonfinancial companies in the DX research universe in UK,
Investors’ risk appetite looking ahead Source: Data Explorers; FactSet The SPX is up 12% YTD and fund managers will be looking to lock-in profits. One of the best proxies for investor sentiment is the borrow level in the SPDR ETF (Ticker:  SPY ).  Since September 7 th ,  short interest in the SPDR as measured by the quantity of shares on loan has risen by 24% from 60.8m shares to 80.0m shares.  The USSI data which will be published later this week will back this up. Big new borrows in the SPY since 7 th  Sept.
Appendix 1 The DNS indicator is based on the normalized sum of the moving average of utilization (a DX measure of supply vs. demand in the securities lending market) and the change in utilization.  This indicator is based on a relative scale (normalized) from 0 to 100.  A relatively high DNS generally reflects negative sentiment (an increasing amount of shorts relative to longs) while a low number shows relatively less negative sentiment.  This measure is best viewed over a time series.  A rising DNS signifies an increase in negative sentiment for the security which represents a potential risk for long positions and may indicate a signal for going short or underweight.  A falling DNS signifies decreasing negative sentiment and may signal a move to close shorts or to go overweight. DNS (Data Explorers Negative Sentiment) Calculation  DNS = a1 *(Previous 8 working day moving average of Utilisation) + a2*(Absolute Change in Utilisation over previous 7 working days)  Where a1 = 1  a2 = 1 Example Utilization for previous 8 days = 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32, 33, 35 8 day Moving average = (25+26+27+29+30+32+33+35)/8 = 29.6 Current Utilisation = 36 Absolute Change = 36 – 26 = +10 Indicator = 1* 29.6 + 1*(+10) = 39.6 This is then normalized with the other indicators in the sample so that it lies in the range between 0 and 100. Calculation of the DNS Indicator
Appendix 2 List of companies which show signs of pre-borrowing We analysed DealReporters’ universe of 121 announced or potential rights issues candidates and compared cash equity volumes 1 month before the announcement date and 1 day before announcement.  If the cash equity volumes had not risen, but the quantity of stock on loan had risen, there was potentially pre-borrowing in these names.
Appendix 3: Global Long/Short Ratio
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Contact Details
Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or constitutes any investment advice or recommendation of any security or other financial instrument.  BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK believes that the information herein was obtained from reliable sources but does not guarantee its accuracy. Bloomberg Tradebook FX is offered in the U.S. by Bloomberg Tradebook Services LLC, a non-regulated entity. Communicated by Bloomberg Tradebook Europe Limited, registered in England & Wales No. 3556095, authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority No. 187492. This communication is directed only at persons who have professional experience in the investments which may be traded over the systems and certain high net worth organizations. Available in  all countries and is only offered where clearance been obtained. Bloomberg Tradebook LLC member of FINRA (www.finra.org)/ SIPC/NFA. Bloomberg Tradebook do Brasil is the representative of Bloomberg Tradebook LLC in Brazil registered with the BACEN. Bloomberg Tradebook Services LLC, Bloomberg Tradebook Australia PTY LTD ABN 36 091 542 077 ACN 091 542 077, Bloomberg Tradebook Do Brasil LTDA., Bloomberg Tradebook Canada Company Member of CIPF, Bloomberg Tradebook Limited, Bloomberg Tradebook Hong Kong Limited the first ATS authorized by the SFC–AFU 977, Bloomberg Tradebook Japan Limited member of JSDA/JIPF, Bloomberg Trading Services Japan LTD, Bloomberg Tradebook Singapore Pte Ltd Company No. 200104338R, Bloomberg Trading Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd Company  No. 200101232G. Bloomberg Tradebook Bermuda LTD, licensed to conduct Investment Business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG POWERMATCH  and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P.(“BFLP”), a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries. BLOCK HUNTER, BWAP, DEFINING LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY DOME and TRIGGER TRADING are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”), a Delaware limited partnership. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service (the “BPS”) is owned and distributed locally by BFLP and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the “BLP Countries”).  BFLP is a wholly- owned subsidiary of BLP. BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for these products and distributes the BPS either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in  the BLP Countries. Bloomberg Tradebook is provided by a BLP subsidiary, Bloomberg Tradebook LLC, and its affiliates and is available on the BPS. US  EUROPE  ASIA  +1 212 617 7070  +44 20 7330 7099  +65 6212 9798 bloombergtradebook.com

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Data Explorers Presentation, Bloomberg London Offices 15th September 2009

  • 1. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or constitutes any investment advice or recommendation of any security or other financial instrument. BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK believes that the information herein was obtained from reliable sources but does not guarantee its accuracy.
  • 2.  
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Raw data on potential new issuance
  • 6.
  • 7. Stock borrowing in InBev Copyright: Data Explorers
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Expected rights issue candidates Company Catalyst % stock on loan (change on week) Bilfinger Berger (NR) To fund acquisitions 2.15% (-2.19%) Immofinanz Awaiting AGM results- first step towards merger with ImmoEast 8.57% (+9.0%) RSA Insurance Targeting AIG LatAM assets – leading shareholder expecting EUR 1bn deal 0.71 (+156%) Barratts EUR 500m deal expected- second wave of UK housebuilders exp end September- advisers appointed 5.30% (+18.5% ) Alstria Pitched - planning to cut debt without rights issue, could use proceeds for acquisitions. Not short term 0.47% (+3.2%)
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Investors’ risk appetite looking ahead Source: Data Explorers; FactSet The SPX is up 12% YTD and fund managers will be looking to lock-in profits. One of the best proxies for investor sentiment is the borrow level in the SPDR ETF (Ticker: SPY ). Since September 7 th , short interest in the SPDR as measured by the quantity of shares on loan has risen by 24% from 60.8m shares to 80.0m shares. The USSI data which will be published later this week will back this up. Big new borrows in the SPY since 7 th Sept.
  • 16. Appendix 1 The DNS indicator is based on the normalized sum of the moving average of utilization (a DX measure of supply vs. demand in the securities lending market) and the change in utilization. This indicator is based on a relative scale (normalized) from 0 to 100. A relatively high DNS generally reflects negative sentiment (an increasing amount of shorts relative to longs) while a low number shows relatively less negative sentiment. This measure is best viewed over a time series. A rising DNS signifies an increase in negative sentiment for the security which represents a potential risk for long positions and may indicate a signal for going short or underweight. A falling DNS signifies decreasing negative sentiment and may signal a move to close shorts or to go overweight. DNS (Data Explorers Negative Sentiment) Calculation DNS = a1 *(Previous 8 working day moving average of Utilisation) + a2*(Absolute Change in Utilisation over previous 7 working days) Where a1 = 1 a2 = 1 Example Utilization for previous 8 days = 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32, 33, 35 8 day Moving average = (25+26+27+29+30+32+33+35)/8 = 29.6 Current Utilisation = 36 Absolute Change = 36 – 26 = +10 Indicator = 1* 29.6 + 1*(+10) = 39.6 This is then normalized with the other indicators in the sample so that it lies in the range between 0 and 100. Calculation of the DNS Indicator
  • 17. Appendix 2 List of companies which show signs of pre-borrowing We analysed DealReporters’ universe of 121 announced or potential rights issues candidates and compared cash equity volumes 1 month before the announcement date and 1 day before announcement. If the cash equity volumes had not risen, but the quantity of stock on loan had risen, there was potentially pre-borrowing in these names.
  • 18. Appendix 3: Global Long/Short Ratio
  • 19.
  • 20. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or constitutes any investment advice or recommendation of any security or other financial instrument. BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK believes that the information herein was obtained from reliable sources but does not guarantee its accuracy. Bloomberg Tradebook FX is offered in the U.S. by Bloomberg Tradebook Services LLC, a non-regulated entity. Communicated by Bloomberg Tradebook Europe Limited, registered in England & Wales No. 3556095, authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority No. 187492. This communication is directed only at persons who have professional experience in the investments which may be traded over the systems and certain high net worth organizations. Available in all countries and is only offered where clearance been obtained. Bloomberg Tradebook LLC member of FINRA (www.finra.org)/ SIPC/NFA. Bloomberg Tradebook do Brasil is the representative of Bloomberg Tradebook LLC in Brazil registered with the BACEN. Bloomberg Tradebook Services LLC, Bloomberg Tradebook Australia PTY LTD ABN 36 091 542 077 ACN 091 542 077, Bloomberg Tradebook Do Brasil LTDA., Bloomberg Tradebook Canada Company Member of CIPF, Bloomberg Tradebook Limited, Bloomberg Tradebook Hong Kong Limited the first ATS authorized by the SFC–AFU 977, Bloomberg Tradebook Japan Limited member of JSDA/JIPF, Bloomberg Trading Services Japan LTD, Bloomberg Tradebook Singapore Pte Ltd Company No. 200104338R, Bloomberg Trading Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd Company No. 200101232G. Bloomberg Tradebook Bermuda LTD, licensed to conduct Investment Business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG POWERMATCH and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P.(“BFLP”), a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries. BLOCK HUNTER, BWAP, DEFINING LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY DOME and TRIGGER TRADING are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg L.P. (“BLP”), a Delaware limited partnership. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service (the “BPS”) is owned and distributed locally by BFLP and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the “BLP Countries”). BFLP is a wholly- owned subsidiary of BLP. BLP provides BFLP with all global marketing and operational support and service for these products and distributes the BPS either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. Bloomberg Tradebook is provided by a BLP subsidiary, Bloomberg Tradebook LLC, and its affiliates and is available on the BPS. US EUROPE ASIA +1 212 617 7070 +44 20 7330 7099 +65 6212 9798 bloombergtradebook.com