Global disruptions of Earth's climate and biosphere are leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapses, depletion of fish and forests, loss of fresh water, ocean acidification and species extinctions. What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actually make a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope?

1. Appalachian Impacts of Global Warming:
Reasons For Hope
Robert Cahalan
Chief of NASA-Goddard Climate & Radiation Laboratory
Co-founder of Chesapeake Education, Arts, and Research Society
(CHEARS.org)
• Global disruptions of Earth's climate and biosphere are
leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapses,
depletion of fish and forests, loss of fresh water, ocean
acidification and species extinctions. What can be done to
address these challenges? Can individuals actually make a
difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope?

2. Heritage .. Science
“Global warming is
the first environmental forecast based on physical reasoning—the greenhouse effect and its
intensification as IR atmospheric opacity increases—rather than on extrapolating observed
patterns of past behavior.
Anthropogenic warming was not unambiguously detected until nearly the end of the 20th
century, well after most experts knew it was coming.
Interestingly, forecast meteorologists, despite their familiarity with weather and the
atmosphere, are at least as skeptical of global warming as the general public; so, to some
extent, are geologists.”
– Steven Sherwood, Physics Today, October 2011 2

3. Models ensure consistency of observations with basic physical laws,
And forecast future scenarios that depend on assumed human choices.

4. adapted from Lubchenco (2011)
Observations considered together form a convincing scenario of human-induced warming

5. Earthobservatory.nasa.gov
847 stories in 2011
~3.2/business day
1,139 images
54 blog entries
10 in-depth features

6. The Climate is Changing
• Temperatures are rising
• Ice is melting
• Sea levels are rising
• The ocean is acidifying
Temperature rise, indicated by color (red=higher
rate of increase). Earth’s surface temperature has
risen ~1.3˚ F since 1850.
Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere
& Ocean, U. of Washington.

7. Temperatures are rising
Earth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC,
GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 – 0.17°C (0.28 – 0.30°F) per decade since
satellite measurements began in 1979.
Departure from average of annual global
temperatures between 1950 – 2011,
classified by phase of the El Niño-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year
2011 was the warmest year on record
when a La Niña event was present. ENSO
is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea
surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña)
and the air pressure of the overlying
atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across
the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a
period of months to a few years, ENSO
fluctuates between warmer-than-average
ocean surface waters (El Niño) and
cooler-than-average ocean surface waters
(La Niña) in that region. Image credit:
National Climatic Data Center.

8. Temperatures are rising
Earth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC,
GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 – 0.17°C (0.28 – 0.30°F) per decade since
satellite measurements began in 1979.
Departure from average of annual global
temperatures between 1950 – 2011,
classified by phase of the El Niño-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year
E P 2011 was the warmest year on record
when a La Niña event was present. ENSO
is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea
surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña)
1957: IGY, SolarMax and the air pressure of the overlying
1967: Budyko GW atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across
the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a
period of months to a few years, ENSO
fluctuates between warmer-than-average
ocean surface waters (El Niño) and
cooler-than-average ocean surface waters
(La Niña) in that region. Image credit:
National Climatic Data Center.

9. Temperatures are rising
Quiz:
Approximately how
many of the top
10 hottest years on
E P record have occurred
in the past 10 years?
1957: IGY, SolarMax
1967: Budyko GW
(h) 0
(i) 1
(j) 5
(k) 10

10. Temperatures are rising
Quiz:
Approximately how
many of the top
10 hottest years on
E P record have occurred
in the past 10 years?
1957: IGY, SolarMax
1967: Budyko GW
(h) 0
(i) 1
(j) 5
(k) 10 (9)
The ten hottest years on record are,
in order 2010 and 2005 (tie), 1998,
2003, 2002, 2009, 2006, 2007, 2004,
and 2001.

11. & Precipitation
Temperatures are rising
^
Statewide ranks for the average March to August 2011 precipitation for the U.S.
States from Ohio to Vermont set new
records for the highest in 117 years, while
Texas and New Mexico set new records
for the lowest.
On the national scale in the U.S.,
entrenched political agendas are in denial
about our responsibility for global climate
change. However, in the northern New
England states, communities are adapting
to ongoing regional climate change,
because the change in the seasons, as well
as the increase in the frequency of
extreme precipitation events, are readily
apparent to state government and to
citizens with connections and roots in the
outdoors.
-- Alan K. Betts

12. Departures in temperature (deg C)
Sea Level ( mm) and Snow Cover (km2)
From the 1961 to 1990 average ^
& Sea Level
Temperatures are rising
^
IPCC 2007
& Snow is falling

13. How has Earth’s sea ice responded?
Rapid warming in the Arctic particularly has led to the opening up of sea routes in the
area. Both the Northern Sea Route (above Russia and Scandinavia) and the Northwest Passage
(above Alaska and Canada) have seen substantial increases in shipping over the past few years.
The Northern Sea route in particular is being targeted as a route for tanker and bulk traffic.
Shipping through the Northern Sea Route increased by three times between 2010 and 2011.
Due to procedural objections by mostly non-polar states and the industry lobby, the
International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations body tasked with developing
shipping regulations, shelved the development of the environmental section of the Polar Code
until 2013, increasing the risk of harm to both the Arctic and Antarctic.
–World Wildlife Foundation

14. Quiz: Of the
total surface
area of Earth,
the 48 contiguous
states of the USA
has an area that is
closest to
what percentage?
(h) 1%
(i) 5%
(j) 10%
(k) 20%

15. Quiz: Of the
total surface
area of Earth,
the 48 continuous
states of the USA
has an area that is
closest to
what percentage?
(h) 1% (1.6%)
(i) 5%
(j) 10%
(k) 20%
Go to URL:
wolframalpha.com
Enter
“area of usa/world”
“area of (contiguous usa)/world”

16. Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?

17. Solar Energy Input to Earth has an 11-year cycle, but no detectable trend :

18. Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?
All regions warmed at
& near the surface.
Yet the
stratosphere cooled the
most at highest altitude:
This is not consistent with solar warming,
but is predicted by greenhouse warming. IPCC 2007

19. Heritage .. Denial
News headline –> “Global Warming - Sorry Al, it's the Sun!”
“According to Robert Cahalan, climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight
Center ‘For the last 20 to 30 years, we believe greenhouse gases have been the dominant
influence on recent climate change.’ This may not come as such a big surprise to those who
weren't so ready to swallow the Al Gore theory.” … blah, blah, blah! …
– Ian Brockwell, News Blaze, June 07, 2009
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20. The Role of Human Beings
Causes of Climate
Change
• It is very likely that most of the
climate change in the current era
is the result of human activities.
– Human activities have increased
concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere.
Figure adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
– These gases trap heat and cause Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the 4th Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Figure SPM.5.
the Earth to warm. Cambridge University Press.
During pre-industrial Holocene, CO2 remained within 10% of 280 ppm.
Since 1850, CO2 rapidly increased more than 30%, & forecast to double by 2100.
Doubling might be avoided if humans choose not to pursue “business as usual.”

21. Carbon isotopes show that new atmospheric CO2 is from fossil fuels.
Carbon from fossil fuels returned to the atmosphere in combustion is depleted in both 13C and 14C.

22. Atmospheric CO2 doesn’t “rain out” like aerosols.
Once emitted, 50% remains in atmosphere for centuries,
the other 50% is absorbed by oceans, and trees.

23. Deep Time: Human Forced Changes are Rapid
Small human population
2000 generations ago
… Ice Ages … We are here.
Past 10,000 years: global temperature relative to peak pre-industrial Holocene.
Prior to 1850, Holocene was cooler than the Eemian interglacial.
Post-industrial Holocene – the Anthropocene – is warmer than the Eemian.
During the Eemian, Greenland melted, global sea level rose more than 20 feet.
An additional 1°C warming could push us over a “tipping point.”
adapted from Hansen & Sato (2011)

24. Rising Ocean CO2  Falling pH
• Oceans acidify • Corals and Shells Dissolve

25. "Bottom line: The ocean -C life support system
our
-- is in trouble; therefore so are we. Tipping points
are imminent, but there is time to reverse the
decline and secure an enduring place for
humankind within the systems that sustain us -- our
economies, health, security and most importantly,
life itself. Knowing is the key."
Sylvia Earle
at The Economist's World Oceans Summit

29. Survival of Species
“The Bog Turtle”
Formerly common throughout the Chesapeake Watershed.
Now one of the 25 most endangered turtles in the world.
This hand-sized turtle inspired our CHEARS logo.
“Maryland darter”
Only endemic vertebrate in Maryland.
Last seen in Deer Creek in 1988.
The IUCN has declared this fish species extinct.
The United States Fish and Wildlife Service has not,
and keeps it on the Endangered Species List.

30. Survival of Species
Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment,
www.millennium
assessment.org
“Business As Usual” scenario for 2100:
Global warming ~ 3°C, Likely extinctions ~ 50%
“Alternative” scenario for 2100:
Global warming ~ 1°C, Likely extinctions ~ 10%

32. What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actually
make a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope?
Goddard Climate & Radiation Laboratory
branch CS roles, issues & concerns
Strengths
Challenges
Opportunities
Threats
Ash Wednesday Storm, March 6-8, 1962
--------------------
50 years ago, Ocean City was washing away
--------------------
– Baltimore Sun, March 5, 2012
Visit baltimoresun.com at http://www.baltimoresun.com

33. What are our chances?
My personal reason for hope:
• Known Unknown – 96% of all mass/energy
• Sensitivity to initial conditions – The ubiquity of chaos
• Resiliance – Nature’s remarkable ability to heal and adapt
• Peak oil and gas – The Power of Community, urban permaculture
• The Japanese Cedar – For 7000 years it clung to the soil, protected birds
• Our Elders – Pete Seeger (Calipso), Jane Goodall (Roots and Shoots)
• Our Children – Adapting to and changing the world they have inherited
• Our Tree of Life – Relearning our interconnectedness
• Non-Coal Alternatives – Solar, Wind, Geothermal, monitor their impacts
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34. What are our chances?
The Power of Community:
How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
http://www.powerofcommunity.org/
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35. What can we do?
My personal “to do” list:
• Think Globally, Act Locally – http://pumas.nasa.gov on “learning to think
globally”
• Change our home – Manage to work with nature in your own life
• Carbon Footprint - Calculate and control our energy/carbon –> mindfulness
• Talk to our neighbors – Help our community work with nature
• Shop local – Give local businesses our feedback
• “Cradle to Cradle” (McDonough and Braungart) –
Redesign businesses& institutions, work with nature
• Consume wisely – Find products that do less harm, or do good
• The Bog Turtle – Our Adopted Species - help it pull back from extinction
• Educate Our Children – To adapt to and change the world they inherit
• Support Non-Coal Alternatives – Solar, Wind, Geothermal, monitor their impacts
“Little things lead to bigger things – that’s what seeds are all about.
… Who knows where some good little thing you’ve done may
bring results years later that you never dreamed of.” 35
– Pete Seeger (“Democracy Now” on 5/4/2009)

36. What can we do?
Maggie’s List:
• 1. Have vegan diet
• 2. Use public transportation--live close to work
• 3. Turn off air conditioning--open windows
• 4. Invite others to share house with you---use less space and less energy
• 5. Spend time outside every day and walk everyday to stay healthy
• 6. Be kind to others and share what we have
• 7. Grow some of our own food--eat local and with the seasons
• 8. Develop new ways of work –build new economy not dependent on exploiting
--be creative in encouraging green work
• 9. Adopt a species and work for its health
• 10. Build the beloved community that includes all creatures
What is your “top 10” list of changes?
36

37. A possible future
• Montreal Protocol has already improved our Ozone Layer
• Now need new international cooperation for:
– Renewable energy development.
– Energy conservation/efficiency.
– Energy system transitions, land use change patterns, sea-level rise mitigation.
– Regional responses tuned to regional changes.
– Water quality, conservation, and distribution
– …
• A Sustainable Alternative: Human society taking coordinated action to
adapt to and mitigate expected climate changes.
“Above all, reducing the risk of climate change requires collective action.
It requires cooperation between countries, through international
frameworks that support the achievement of shared goals. It requires a
partnership between the public and private sector, working with civil
society and with individuals. It is still possible to avoid the worst impacts
of climate change, but it requires strong and urgent collective action.
Delay would be costly and dangerous.” [emphases added]
- The Stern review (2007)

38. Emergent Species
Hiding in Plain Sight, a New Frog Species With a 'Weird' Croak Is Identified in New York City
– ScienceDaily (Mar. 14, 2012)
Catherine E. Newman, Jeremy A. Feinberg, Leslie J. Rissler, Joanna Burger, H. Bradley Shaffer.
A new species of leopard frog (Anura: Ranidae) from the urban northeastern US. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 2012;
63 (2): 445 DOI: 10.1016/j.ympev.2012.01.021

39. Let us ask the right questions, and
begin to listen to Nature in a new way.
“How do we love all the children of all species for all time? …Consider a tree.
Design something that makes oxygen, sequesters carbon, fixes nitrogen, distills
water, accrues solar energy as fuel, builds complex sugars as food, creates
microclimates, changes colors with the seasons, and self replicates.”
– William McDonough
Author of “Cradle to Cradle” (with M. Baumgardt)
Talk at www.ted.com in Feb 2005.

40. “..When I was less than a year old, before I could talk, …, I was in
a pram outside the grocery store. … A dragonfly began swooping
around me, and I screamed – so a well-intentioned passerby hit the
dragonfly to the ground with his newspaper, and crushed it with
his foot. I continued to scream all the way home. … But being
afraid of something did not mean I wanted it killed. If I close my
eyes I can see, with almost unbearable clarity, the glorious
shimmering and still quivering wings, the blue ‘tail’ gleaming in
the sunlight, the head crushed on the sidewalk…Perhaps the
dragonfly was part of some plan, to bring a message to a little
child, all those years ago. If so, all I can say is: ‘Message received
and understood.’ ”
– Jane Goodall
Reason For Hope – A Spiritual Journey

44. Alarming ‘dead zone’ grows in the Chesapeake
By Darryl Fears, July 24, 2011
…expanding area of oxygen-starved water is on track to become the
bay’s largest ever.
This year’s Chesapeake Bay dead zone covers a third of the bay,
stretching from the Baltimore Harbor to the bay’s mid-channel region in
the Potomac River, about 83 miles, when it was last measured in late
June. It has since expanded beyond the Potomac into Virginia, officials
said.

45. THE DISMAL DECLINE OF THE BAY HAS LED THESE PROUD SMITH ISLAND WATERMEN
AND WOMEN TO GIVE UP WORK ON THE BAY, LEAVE THEIR ISLAND HOMES, AND GO
TO WORK AT THE STATE PISON IN PRINCESS ANNE, MD ENDING GENERATIONS OF
THEIR FAMILIES MAKING A LIVING FROM THE BAY’S ONCE BOUNTEOUS
RESORUCRCES, ESPECIALLY OYSTERS AND CRABS. THE POLLUTION OF THE BAY HAS
DESTROYED THEIR ANCIENT LIVELIHOODS.
Photo: National Geographic Magazine, June 2005, Why Can’t We Save the Bay? By Tom Horton

46. What are our chances?
How To Build Community:
The Syracuse Cultural Workers
Turn off your TV*Leave your house
Know your neighbors
Look up when you are walking Start A Tradition*Ask A Question
Greet people*Sit on your stoop Hire Young People for Odd Jobs
Organize a Block Party
Plant Flowers Bake Extra and Share
Use your library*Play together Ask For Help When You Need It
Buy from local merchants Open Your Shades*Sing Together
Share what you have Share Your Skills
Help a lost dog Take Back the Night
Take children to the park Turn Up The Music
Garden Together Turn Down The Music
Listen Before You react To Anger
Support Neighborhood Schools Mediate A Conflict
Fix it even if you didn't break it Seek To Understand
Have Pot Lucks*Honor Elders Learn From New And
Pick Up Litter* Read Stories Aloud Uncomfortable Angles
Dance in the Street Know That No One is Silent
Talk to the Mail Carrier Though Many Are Not Heard
Listen to the Birds* Put up a Swing Work To Change This
Help Carry Something Heavy
Barter For Your Goods
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http://syracuseculturalworkers.com

47. What are our chances?
Turning around:
• One billion persons turning out a lightbulb …
– …for 1 hour a day for a year, can power a medium sized city in the USA for a year.
– See http://pumas.nasa.gov and search for “think globally.”
– Human population increased by 1 billion in the past 12 years !!!
• A‘Moore’s Law’ is rapidly making solar cheaper than fossil fuels
– Fossil fuels lose after 2020
• Is there enough solar energy to fill the increasing needs?
– Humans use 15 TW,
– Land and Oceans take in 90,000 TW solar, or 2000 X human usage.
– Coal & Oil doesn’t need to be replaced by a single renewable, just new coal by > 10 renewables.
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48. What are our chances?
Turning around:
“We are made of water, flowing water, Sun and salt, winds that blow. Though my bones were
formed in the mountain, it’s through my blood this river flows.” – Tom Wisner, song lyrics
48

49. Holocene Lasted 10,000 Years. Will the Anthropocene?
Adapt, Mitigate, Observe – Persist!
Great Basin National Park, Nevada, USA
Proposed Site for “Clock of the Long Now”
Bristlecone Pine
Do We Have the Persistance of Our Ancestors?
Passage Grave, Newgrange, Ireland, c5000 Years Before Present
Continues to keep accurate time to date.

50. Oh my children, where air we going on this mighty river of earth,
a-borning, begetting, and a-dying, the living and the dead riding
the waters? Where air it sweeping us? – James Still, “River of Earth”

51. Heritage
I shall not leave these prisoning hills
Though they topple their barren heads to level earth
And the forests slide uprooted out of the sky.
Though the waters of Troublesome, of Trace Fork,
Of Sand Lick rise in a single body to glean the valleys,
To drown lush pennyroyal, to unravel rail fences;
Though the sun-ball breaks the ridges into dust
And burns its strength into the blistered rock
I cannot leave. I cannot go away.
Being of these hills, being one with the fox
Stealing into the shadows, one with the new-born foal,
The lumbering ox drawing green beech logs to mill,
One with the destined feet of man climbing and descending,
And one with death rising to bloom again, I cannot go.
Being of these hills I cannot pass beyond.
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– James Still (1906-2001), Knott County, Kentucky

52. Thank you!
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