A complexity approach to market research has been derived from the science of Complex Adaptive Systems, where the nature of a complex system is such that there is no one right answer. There are range of possibilities and options due to the myriad of factors that could determine cause and effect. Complex systems are by their very nature emergent, and the challenge with market research in this environment is be able to understand the emergent properties of complex systems that allow decision makers to make informed decisions and monitor impact over time.

1. Market Research
A complexity approach using
SenseMakerTM
FEBRUARY 2010

2. “There
is
nothing
like
looking,
if
you
want
to
5ind
something.
You
certainly
usually
5ind
something,
if
you
look,
but
it
is
not
always
quite
the
something
you
were
after.”
- J.R.R. Tolkien
A complexity approach to market research
The
business
environments
of
the
21st
Century
are
shaping
up
to
be
radically
different
to
those
many
of
us
have
experienced
previously.
Recent
market
shaping
events
such
as
the
Global
Financial
Crisis
were
not
widely
foreseen
and
who
is
to
say
that
an
unprecedented
events
such
as
these
will
not
happen
again?
As
we
enter
the
second
decade
of
a
new
century,
the
pace
of
change
will
only
conJnue
to
accelerate
with
the
scale
and
scope
of
informaJon
available
to
assist
decision
makers
only
growing
in
defiance
of
comprehension.
Market
Research
in
this
environment
needs
to
embrace
a
toolkit
that
allows
companies
and
business
alike
to
understand
the
complexity
that
they
deal
with
on
a
daily
basis
in
order
to
make
effecJve
decisions.
A
complexity
approach
to
market
research
has
been
derived
from
the
science
of
Complex
AdapJve
Systems,
where
the
nature
of
a
complex
system
is
such
that
there
is
no
one
right
answer.
There
are
range
of
possibiliJes
and
opJons
due
to
the
myriad
of
factors
that
could
determine
cause
and
effect.
Complex
systems
are
by
their
very
nature
emergent,
and
the
challenge
with
market
research
in
this
environment
is
be
able
to
understand
the
emergent
properJes
of
complex
systems
that
allow
decision
makers
to
make
informed
decisions
and
monitor
impact
over
Jme.
“Changing
the
way
we
measure
things
is
vital.
So
is
decompartmentalising
society
-­
making
sure
that
economics
and
politics
are
not
divorced
from
other
crucial
areas
of
life”
- David Attenborough
Page 2

3. SenseMakerTM - designed to support narrative-based research
and decision making
A
natural
and
intuitive
approach
to
gaining
multiple
perspectives
and
new
insights
into
complex
problems
that
have
until
now
proved
to
be
intractable
for
both
strategic
management
methods
and
software
The
CogniJve
Edge
SenseMaker
SoNware
Suite,
is
fully
integrated
with
a
body
of
facilitated
processes,
is
the
outcome
of
several
years
of
research
into
human-­‐based
organizaJonal
complexity,
sensemaking,
decision-­‐making,
knowledge
sharing
and
impact
evaluaJon
by
CogniJve
Edge.
It
provides
a
natural
and
intuiJve
approach
to
gaining
mulJple
perspecJves
and
new
insights
into
complex
problems
that
have
hitherto
proved
intractable
for
both
strategic
management
methods
and
soNware.
The
SenseMaker
SoNware
Suite
has
been
used
to
address
complex
issues
associated
with:
•
Making
decisions
in
inherently
complex
environments;
•
Assessing
the
intelligence
available
on
compeJJve
actors
and
their
strategies;
•
Developing
leaders
who
can
adapt
to
constant
change;
•
Managing
knowledge
that
is
criJcal
to
their
business;
•
EvaluaJon
of
impact
of
iniJaJves
and
•
Assessing
customer
saJsfacJon
and
employee
morale.
Large
amounts
of
unstructured
data
are
used,
such
as
peoples
experiences
and
responses
to
prompJng
material,
news
arJcles,
blog
entries,
and
pictures,
where
the
way
in
which
these
are
tagged
enables
the
idenJficaJon
and
analysis
of
paWerns.
TradiJonal
staJsJcal
analysis
is
also
available.
Current
esJmates
are
that
the
cost
is
in
the
range
of
20-­‐25%
of
more
tradiJonal
survey
approaches.
AddiJonal
benefits
are
that
the
source
data
remains
the
property
of
the
client
organisaJon,
the
skills
for
analysis
and
interpretaJon
are
transferred,
and
the
date/Jme
stamping
enables
tracking
of
trends
and
changes
-­‐
small
and
large.
“There
is
no
difference
between
a
terrorist,
a
citizen,
an
employee
and
a
consumer
–
all
represent
the
problem
of
asymmetry
in
which
an
organisation
has
to
understand
multiple
interactions
and
decision
from
large
populations
which
cannot
be
predicted
or
controlled
by
that
organisation.”
- Cognitive Edge
Page 3

4. Emerging
OpJons
uses
SenseMakerTM
to
capture
large
volumes
of
narraJve
with
respect
to
the
specific
area
under
consideraJon.
Literally
thousands
of
stories,
anecdotes,
pictures,
arJcles,
verbal
records
and
much
more,
can
be
captured
at
a
minimal
cost.
Those
who
provide
the
stories
or
submit
other
sense
making
material
answer
a
number
of
quesJons
that
provide
the
indexing
criteria,
and
subsequent
reporJng.
Indexing
is
customised
to
meet
the
needs
of
the
research,
and
central
to
the
CogniJve
Edge
Sense
Making
soNware’s
ability
to
shown
paWerns
that
could
uncover
emerging
trends,
issues
or
insights
that
are
not
readily
apparent
with
tradiJonal
methods
of
data
interrogaJon.
SenseMakerTM
will
allow
for
the
uncovering
of
paWerns
in
the
complex
issue
being
invesJgated.
The
dataset
collected,
will
also
form
the
basis
for
the
ongoing
benchmarking
of
idenJfied
insights
and
drivers
moving
forward.
The
kind
of
complex
organic
database
created,
can
help
you
find
out
who
is
saying
what,
and
how
a
challenge
or
project
is
being
handled.
For
example,
six
clicks
of
a
mouse
buWon
can
tell
you
all
the
stories
told
by
an
experienced
staff
member,
facing
a
crisis,
involving
deep
conflict
and
emoJons,
told
from
their
point
of
view,
with
the
intenJon
of
teaching.
Depending
on
the
number
of
queries
you
look
at,
you
can
narrow
or
expand
your
potenJal
insight
about
what
might
be
relevant
and
what
might
not.
Benefits
of
SenseMakerTM:
• Ability
to
allow
mul-ple
perspec-ves
to
be
visible
and
recognized
-­‐
to
make
the
“invisible
voices
visible”
• Ability
to
value
dissent
without
requiring
a>ribu-on
of
blame
• Providing
perspec-ves
and
frameworks
that
enable
people
to
take
ac-on
in
addressing
complex
issues
• Compliment
and
work
in
conjunc-on
with
exis-ng
research
tools
and
processes
• The
use
of
narra-ve
as
a
key
component
of
collec-ng
and
understanding
knowledge
in
context
• A
founda-on
for
benchmarking
• A
bo>om-­‐up
approach
to
iden-fying
issues
masked
through
organisa-on
hierarchy
• A
near
real
-me
view
of
the
organisa-on
and
how
it
manages
complex
issues
• Making
key
decisions
where
to
invest
scarce
research
or
marke-ng
budgets
• Gaining
compe--ve
advantage
through
deep
insights
from
real
people.
• Know
how
customers
and
compe-tors
talk
about
the
issues
under
considera-on
• Iden-fy
customer
segments
and
context
within
which
they
talk
about
issues
being
researched
• Formulate
targeted
marke-ng
messages
that
most
resonate
with
target
audience
Page 4

5. SenseMakerTM - a look under the covers
Key
to
SenseMakerTM
is
the
removal
of
the
role
of
the
“expert”
as
far
as
possible.
Experts
will
not
give
opinions
as
to
what
people
think
-­‐
this
is
gathered
from
real
people
in
the
target
research
audience.
By
recognising
that
each
individual
understands
their
experiences
beWer
than
experts,
and
allowing
them
to
interpret
their
own
material,
SenseMakerTM
is
able
to
provide
in-­‐depth
quanJtaJve
analysis
in
research
areas
typically
only
quanJfied
in
a
superficial
manner,
or
covered
by
qualitaJve
research
alone.
SenseMakerTM
avoids
pre-­‐hypothesis,
categorisaJon
or
pre-­‐determined
demographic
definiJons.
The
use
of
emergent
research
allows
the
groups
to
be
discovered
based
on
actual
characterisJcs.
TradiJonal
survey
techniques,
focus
groups
or
standard
quesJonnaires
are
not
used.
By
using
indirect
quesJoning
and
gathering
responses
in
a
narraJve
format,
we
are
able
to
probe
to
a
deeper
level.
The
material
gathered
contains
not
only
the
respondents
experiences,
but
nuanced
insights
into
their
views
in
the
context
of
real
experiences.
These
details
enable
the
content
of
the
responses
to
be
understood.
The
result
is
a
staJsJcal
analysis
of
the
paWerns
of
responses,
which
can
be
drilled
down
into
to
examine
the
qualitaJve
narraJve
underneath
the
numbers.
Summary Statistics for graph: In this story people feel they are
-- Lacking choice X The people in this story could be
described as -- Old ways
But everything else is great..
Number of items: 36
If your lucky you'll get a competent supervisor. If
~~~~~ X axis (In this story people feel they are -- Lacking
choice) not you can end up with someone who doesn't do
Frustrated &" their job but will always appear to others that they
Mean: 68.6667 powerless! are helpful and hard working. They will take credit
Median: 79.5
25th percentile: 36.25
for your hard work and even put their name to it.
75th percentile: 97.75 They will quietly and without witnesses bully you all
Standard deviation: 31.9616 the while justifying why they need you to do as
they say. If your not good at dealing with this type
Skewness: -0.6409 (skewed to the left)
Skewness standard error (SSE, sqrt(6/n)): 0.4082 of conflict you often feel angry and frustrated.
Skewness Z score (skewness / SSE): -1.5699
Dominant Attitude!
Skewness indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes
Kurtosis: -1.1866 (platykurtic or heavier in the tails)
Standard error for kurtosis (KSE, sqrt(24/n)): 0.8165
Kurtosis Z score (Kurtosis / KSE): -1.4533
Kurtosis indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes
~~~~~ Y axis (The people in this story could be described as
-- Old ways)
Mean: 65.8056
Median: 79.0
25th percentile: 24.0
75th percentile: 99.0
Standard deviation: 33.0427
Going through !
Skewness: -0.4929 (skewed to the left) the motions!
Skewness standard error (SSE, sqrt(6/n)): 0.4082
Skewness Z score (skewness / SSE): -1.2074
Skewness indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes Unnecessarily"
Non existent! Leadership!
Interfering!
Kurtosis: -1.4432 (platykurtic or heavier in the tails)
Standard error for kurtosis (KSE, sqrt(24/n)): 0.8165 Restrictions
Kurtosis Z score (kurtosis / KSE): -1.7676
Kurtosis indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes
We're under staffed, under resourced, aging
Correlation demographic.
Use parametric correlation test? yes
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient: 0.4346
Pearson correlation significance: 0.0081
Significance threshold: 0.05
Correlation is significant? yes
Whose "increased selfishness"?? Litigators?? That will hinder many volunteers, regardless of
time, attitudes, and generations. Who can seriously afford to be sued for any perceived wrong
doing while do gooding?? Like everything in our highly dynamic society today, volunteering
attitudes and experiences are shifting. Some more positive, some negative, and many
traditional volunteer beliefs and services need to mirror these changes to move with the times to
survive the times.
!Who killed the Volunteer?
Frustrated &"
powerless!
Dominant Attitude!
Going through !
the motions!
Unnecessarily"
Non existent! Leadership!
Interfering!
Page 5

6. SignificaJon
of
experiences
provided
by
respondents
occurs
in
two
primary
forms
-­‐
Triads
and
Opposing
Opposites.
Triads: Assessing the relationship between three competing
Interests!
Triads
are
a
visual
form
of
gecng
parJcipants
to
indicate
the
relaJonship
that
exists
between
three
compeJng
interests
within
an
issue
under
consideraJon.
To
respond,
the
parJcipant
will
move
the
ball
within
the
triad
to
where
they
think
it
best
sits
in
relaJon
to
the
the
three
areas
of
interest
(one
at
each
apex).
SenseMaker
in
its
analysis,
will
then
use
the
aggregate
of
these
responses
to
build
“heat
maps”
of
paWerns
of
responses
provided.
Where
interesJng
paWerns
appear,
we
can
drill
down
into
the
experiences
to
understand
the
paWern
and
context
of
responses.
Triad Interpretation: How three competing themes relate!
Work environment open to new initiatives:! Area of the business most impacted:!
Encouraged use of! Team!
new learnings!
Risk! Too much else!
Averse! going on! Me! Organisation!
Difference to the business:!
Process!
Money! Clients!
Page 6

7. Polarities: Opposing opposites to uncover layers of meaning!
Opposing
opposites
are
an
addiJonal
form
of
signifier
used
by
SenseMakerTM.
TradiJonal
surveys
will
oNen
use
a
scale
running
from
a
negaJve
posiJon
to
a
posiJve
end,
with
the
desirable
outcome
usually
posiJve
and
obvious
to
the
parJcipant.
This
is
done
for
two
reasons
-­‐
to
“mask”
the
ideal
outcome
and
deny
a
simple
answer
and
to
provide
an
addiJonal
dimension
for
sensemaking.
By
asking
the
respondent
to
rate
their
response
between
two
extremes
we
get
a
deeper
understanding
of
the
response.
Page 7

8. Impact Dashboard: Measurement of Impact over time!
An
Impact
Dashboard
can
be
developed
based
upon
the
areas
where
deep
insight
is
sought
in
the
domain
area
of
enquiry,
using
the
polariJes
that
parJcipants
have
responded
to.
The
parJcipant
would
have
moved
the
ball
in
the
slider
bar
to
the
the
extent
that
they
feel
the
issue
under
consideraJon
is
present.
SenseMakerTM
will
then
aggregate
these
responses
into
an
overall
distribuJon.
In
a
perfect
world
we
would
see
a
normal
distribuJon
centered
around
the
ideal
state.
In
reality
this
rarely
happens
and
we
are
looking
to
see
the
deviaJon
of
the
mean
of
the
distribuJon
(red
line)
from
the
Ideal
State
(blue
shaded
area).
By
drilling
down
into
the
narraJve
we
can
find
the
context
as
to
why
the
deviaJon
from
the
ideal
state
is
occurring.
Furthermore,
intervenJons
can
be
developed
to
shiN
the
mean
back
towards
the
ideal
state
which
can
be
monitored
over
Jme.
What interventions might be required to shift the mean back towards the Ideal
State of “participants having the ability to experiment in an environment where
it is safe to fail”?!
Safe learning environment!
Ideal State!
Too scared to! Over protected!
try anything new!
Role management!
Learning! Engaging with colleagues!
Being often the leader on projects, I took less of a
variety of skills, approaches and thinking I would share my positive thoughts on the
leading role to help others. I was able to observe the
in the business - evident from working interaction with colleagues, the challenge
project management leadership and role definition
together in teams. Insight from watching in delivering an outcome in a short time
process and the impact of these in reaching an
colleagues present as a client - increased frame. Would also suggest that the
outcome. This was very educational to see from the
awareness of how a customer might see classroom learning and activity were
outside and the positive (consensus) attributes and
us when we pitch to them.! disconnected but it didn't undermine the
adverse impact of not having clear roles which I will
overall value of the course. !
use in my role. !
Page 8

9. MulJple
Choice
QuesJons
provide
a
second
level
of
significaJon,
allowing
analysis
to
be
further
segmented
based
upon
responses
to
each
mulJple
choice
quesJon
Signification: The person who provides the experience decides
what it means!
Page 9

10. About us:
Emerging Options are a consulting network specialising in
complexity and ways of helping organisations and groups
understand the world in which they participate in order to act.
Vivien Read is a founder of Emerging Options. Viv has over 30 years
experience as a consultant and manager in organisational strategy,
change management, industrial relations, leadership development, and
action learning. She has co facilitated 4 Cognitive Edge accreditation
programs, in Australia and South East Asia. She is currently involved in
projects using the Cognitive Edge tools and processes in Australia and
Singapore.
Viv is a frequent presenter at conferences, seminars and professional
groups including knowledge management societies, facilitator networks,
and training and development groups.
Chris Fletcher is a co-founder of Emerging Options. Prior to starting
Emerging Options, Chris was the Asia Pacific Director for Knowledgement
Management at Deloitte. He has over 20 years experience working
in Marketing, Business Development, Strategy and Knowledge Management -
predominantly in the professional services sector. His current focus is on using
Cognitive Edge tools and processes to help organisations and groups
understand complex issues, connect people and develop networks.
Chris is a regular speaker at conferences and seminars in the Asia Pacific
region.
For more information on this project or to express interest in participating, please contact:
Viv Read
email: viv@emergingoptions.com.au
Phone: +61 414 294 339
Chris Fletcher
email: chris@emergingoptions.com.au
Phone: +61 402 308 403
Page 10