Presentation on the challenges of climate change to agriculture and the types of breeding strategies required. Delivered in the EUCARPIA meeting in Malmo, Sweden on 12th june 2013.

1. EUCARPIA: Pre-Breeding: Fishing in the genepool, Sweden June 2013
Genetic resources and traits to
address climate change

2. The
Challenge

3. The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability

4. No matter what, change is upon us

5. Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact
for wheat
Observed changes in growing season
temperature for crop growing
regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)

6. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Crop suitability is changing

7. In order to meet
global
demands, we will
need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk

8. Message 1:
In the coming decades, climate change
and other global trends will endanger
agriculture, food security, and rural
livelihoods.

9. CO2 Fertilisation
• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great
potential for some crops

10. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Crop suitability is changing

11. Message 2:
With new challenges also come
new opportunities.

12. Why do we need breeding?
• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the
world will experience novel combinations of climate

13. And also non-linear responses of crops
to climates
•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed
to temperatures >30˚C
•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

14. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

15. Potato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00
Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50
Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

16. Potato Current Suitability and Presence

17. Potato Current Climatic Constraints

18. Potato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B

19. Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative
Heat and drought?

20. Potato Impacts by Countries
Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa
BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe
CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania
CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America
CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia
CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe

21. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

22. It evaluates on monthly basis if there
are adequate climatic conditions
within a growing season for
temperature and precipitation…
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…
What will this mean for cassava?
Growing season (days) 240
Killing temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute
temperature (°C)
15.0
Minimum optimum
temperature (°C)
22.0
Maximum optimum
temperature (°C)
32.0
Maximum absolute
temperature (°C)
45.0
Minimum absolute
rainfall (mm)
300
Minimum optimum
rainfall (mm)
800
Maximum optimum
rainfall (mm)
2200
Maximum absolute
rainfall (mm)
2800

23. Current suitability

24. Current climatic constraint

25. What will this mean for cassava in 2030?

26. Heat and drought?
Not for cassava
Drought tolerance will
push adaptation up
into Sahel
Big gains also from
cold tolerance –
despite climate
change, this continues
to be the major
constraint globally

27. The Rambo root!

28. But what about other staples?
The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

29. Cassava suitability change compared
with other staples
• Cassava consistently outperforms other
staples in terms of changes in suitability

30. Drought and heat?

31. Message 3:
Different breeding challenges for different
crops, in different countries – no silver
bullet!

34. Outlook for Genetic Resource
• Increased demand:
looking beyond current
crop genetic base
• Greater GR
interdependence
between countries:
Future climate for a
given country more
similar to other
countries

35. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change
Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives
project
Fishing in the genepool
with the NET!

36. Major biodiversity loss predicted

37. CWR supporting adaptation but also
threatened by climate change

38. First strategy: mitigate emissions!

39. Second strategy: Safeguard!

40. Consideration in breeding for CC
• Inherent uncertainty in futures, BUT, temperatures will
increase, rainfall likely to change, greater variability in many parts of
the world
• Climate affects multiple factors, all need to be considered:
– Growing season timing, length of growing season
– Pests and disease patterns (big gap in knowledge)
– Crop distribution, affecting other non-climate related traits and
constraints – e.g. soil-related constraints
– Crop physiology, crop development phases speed up etc.
• Models can help priority set, but not provide final answers. Data
and analysis can set a context – real biological scientists then need
to decide!
• Genetic resources: Yet more reason to conserve them, outlook for
more use

41. http://www.slideshare.net/ciatdapa/
http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org
http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org
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