1. The Climate analogues and its
online platform

2. The Climate Analogue Concept
• Compare locations based on similarities in precipitation
and temperature but designed to identify analogues based
on other features data (soil, social and economic
conditions)
• Williams et al. (2007) state that there is likely to be 30%
novel climates under climate change  That means that
there are 70% of already existing climates projected to
2100 for sites!
• We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds
– GCM projections
– Crop models, household models, farming system
models

3. Benefits of an analogue approach
• Still large uncertainties remain regarding future
projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on
farming systems, especially at the local level.
• Until now, the adaptive capacity of communities is a factor
rarely taken into account in the global/regional models on
which policy makers often rely
• The use of climate analogues for locating future climates
today can ground models in field-based realities,
significantly enhancing our knowledge of adaptation
capacity and supporting the identification of appropriate
interventions.

4. Possible analogues
BACKWARD s
Adaptat ion option
OTHER SITE (s)
MY SITE (current)
(future)
• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?

5. Possible analogues
FORWARD options
Adaptation
OTHER SITE (s)
MY SITE (future)
(current)
• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the
future?

6. Possible analogues
NONE options
Ada ptation
OTHER SITE (s)
MY SITE (current)
(current)
• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the
world currently?

7. The analogues online interface

8. Built upon stable platforms
• Our analogues R package
• And powered by ESRI
• Works under Firefox, Google Chrome and IE

9. http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues

10. 1. DEFINE SITE 2. DEFINE 3. DEFINE
AND CLIMATIC DIRECTION, SCENARIO, GCMs,
DATA ZONE METHOD, GS, VARIABLES,
LAG,NORM, WEIGHTS
THRESHOLD
4.

11. Depending on the settings… calculation time is
between 2 min and …

12. You can then…
• Continue by running a new analysis
• Download report & results
• Get a PNG file for your report, or
presentation
• Get the actual R code used
• … visually manipulate results

13. Let’s see an example online
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues
Reference site: Kagera Bassin, Uganda

14. Watch the video
The CCAFS climate analogue tool - new version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlWznCElKME