Presentation to the CIAT Cassava team of CIAT on our (DAPA) work on climate change and cassava.

1. CIAT’s work on Cassava and Climate Change
Julian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis / Patricia Moreno
• Earlier work: Could cassava be the
answer for climate change
adaptation?
• Our workplan

2. Earlier work
• Jarvis et al. in press
• Ceballos et al. 2011
• Herrera et al. (2011)

3. Is cassava the answer for climate
change adaptation?
• Using the EcoCrop model, calibrated with
expert knowledge and CIAT cassava program
data
Ceballos et al. 2011
Jarvis et al. in press

4. Our 2012 workplan
(objective)
Improve existing estimates of
climate change impacts on
cassava and set up breeding
priorities for climate change
adaptation

5. Our 2012 workplan
1. Realise that we need a mechanistic model!
2. James Cock and his old 70’s model
3. Model development Component Status
Canopy development (LAI)
Phenology
Biomass
Root biomass and yield
Water balance
Drought response
CO2 response
Soil nutrient response
Pests
Diseases
YGP
In process
2012
>2012

6. Our 2012 workplan
4. GLAMorize the cassava model
General Large Area Model (GLAM)
Large-area models
are able to reproduce
large-scale historical
yield responses to
climate and inter-
annual variability

7. AgTrials.org (929 cassava trials)
• 5. Calibrate and evaluate the model using multi-
site trial / historical yield data

8. Our 2012 workplan
6. Run the model and improve current estimates
Liu et al. (2008)
What I am sure of is that
cassava is far more
plastic than this map
suggests
J. Cock (2011)

9. A way beyond
• First reputable cassava process-based model
with all key components
• To be coupled with socio-economic data and
models
• Also useful for evaluating other technologies
and a base for incorporating other
components