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Business... at a glance March 2021

In this monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international company, we talk about the labor cost in Spain, international trade in services, the state of hotel overnight stays in Spain, where is the German PMI and the industrial production of China , in addition to what are the prices of raw materials.

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Business... at a glance March 2021

  1. 1. 0 10 20 30 40 50 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Million Total Residents in Spain Non-residents 5 10 15 20 4Q 2014 4Q 2015 4Q 2016 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 4Q 2019 4Q 2020 Exports Imports -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2Q 2017 4Q 2017 2Q 2018 4Q 2018 2Q 2019 4Q 2019 2Q 2020 4Q 2020 Salary costs Other costs Labor costs, Spain In Q4 2020, labor costs per worker and month fell -0.1% year-on-year to €2,752.26, a slight decrease against the 8.3% of Q2 2020. By components, salary costs fell 0.7% year-on-year to €2,061.30. “Other costs” grew 1.7%, as a result of the increases in Social Security contributions (1.4% year-on-year to €634.57) and non-wage payments (3.2% to €72.76). By contrast, subsidies and allowances fell 2.2% year-on-year to €16.38. By sectors, salary costs only increased in construction (+1.5% year-on-year). In industry, they fell 1%, although other costs grew 3.2%, due to the increase in severance payments. In services, salary costs fell 0.8%, while other costs increased 1.4%, mainly due to social security contribution increases. Internationalservicestrade In Q4 2020, services exports fell 8% year-on-year to €19.2 billion, and imports decreased 5% to €13.4 billion. The balance was €5.8 billion, 14.1% lower in year-on-year terms. By type of service, the sectors that contributed most to the fall in exports were telecommunications, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.2% (to €2.8 billion) and transport with -6% (€4.7 billion). By contrast, exports of financial services, and insurance and pensions increased 7.5% and 4.6%, respectively. Overnighthotelstays,Spain In February 2021, overnight hotel stays fell 86% year-on-year to 2.3 million (with figures similar to December 2020 and January 2021). This decrease represents 12 consecutive months of losses in the sector. By country of origin, overnight traveler stays by residents in Spain, 72.9% of the total in February, fell 75.2% year-on-year, while those of non-residentsfell 93.9%. Business… at a glance March 2021 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2021. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2021. Overnight hotel stays, Spain Millions of overnight stays Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2021. International services trade, Spain Billions € Labor costs (ETCL), Spain Annual (%) change
  2. 2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning. www.circulodeempresarios.org -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 Services sector PMI Manufacturing PMI 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Nominal Real PMI, Germany In March 2021, Germany’s PMI registered a substantial upturn in business activity, marking a Q1 evolution that is better than initially expected. The manufacturing PMI rose 5.8 points compared to February to 66.6 points, the highest level since recording began. The services sector PMI rose to 50.8 points (compared to 45.7 in February), its highest level in seven months. Industrial production, China In January and February 2021, China’s industrial production grew 35.1% year-on-year, 5.1pp higher than initially forecast by analysts. This development can be mostly explained by the increase in external demand and because movement restrictions imposed during the Chinese New Year brought about by Covid-19 flare-ups allowed the pace of manufacturing to continue for longer than usual during this period. By comparison, in the same period of 2020, production fell 13.5% as a result of pandemic. By goods type, increases in production centered on the manufacturing sector (+39.5%), followed by energy supply, heating and water (+19.8%), and mining (+17.5%). Raw materials prices Global economic recovery and with it the increase in demand and the supply side decoupling as a result of economic hibernation could generate an upward “super cycle” in the prices of raw materials, according to some analysts. In this context, a prolonged upturn in prices could affect the future of global economic recovery, hampering company operating margins. The price of copper is at the maximum levels of 2011, and cereals and other key crops have reached their highest level since 2014, according to the United Nations index. At the same time, the price of a barrel of Brent, the international reference price in energy markets, has increased 82% since the end of October, although the International Energy Agency has forecast that world demand for crude will not reach levels prior to the pandemic until 2023. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on the National Bureau Statistics, 2021. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg and United Nations, 2021. Industrial production index, China Year-on-year (%) change Food Prices Index (FAO) 2014-2016 index =100 PMI, Germany Points Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Markit, 2021.