The document summarizes the results of a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The poll shows State Senator Donna Mercado Kim leading with 30% support, followed by State Representative Mark Takai at 24% and State Senators Will Espero and Stanley Chang each polling in the single digits. It also provides crosstabs of support for the candidates by demographics like gender, age, ethnicity, income and other variables. The primary will decide which Democrat will run for the 1st District seat currently held by Colleen Hanabusa.
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for Justice
First Congressional District Democratic Primary Poll
1. Page
1 First
Congressional
District
Democratic
Primary
Sample:
First
Congressional
District
Registered
Voters
=
416
May
18
–
19,
2014
Margin
of
Error
=
+/-‐
4.8%
70%
Landlines,
30%
Cell
Phones
With
that
in
mind,
what
are
you
most
likely
to
do
in
August?
Democratic 62%
Republican 23%
Other/None 2%
Not
sure 13%
In
the
upcoming
Republican
primary,
Cam
Cavasso
will
run
for
the
Republican
Senate
nomination,
Duke
Aiona
will
run
for
Governor,
and
Charles
Djou
will
run
for
Congress—each
with
at
least
one
other
Republican
primary
opponent.
In
the
upcoming
Democratic
primary,
Brian
Schatz
and
Colleen
Hanabusa
will
face
each
other
for
the
U.S.
Senate
nomination,
Neil
Abercrombie
and
David
Ige
will
run
for
Governor,
and
a
number
of
Democrats
will
run
for
Congress.
This
coming
August,
Hawaii
will
hold
its
political
primaries.
In
Hawaii,
if
you
decide
to
vote
in
a
primary,
you
may
choose
between
voting
in
either
the
Democratic
or
Republican
primary—but
not
in
both.
2. Page
2 First
Congressional
District
Democratic
Primary
Sample:
First
Congressional
Districut
Likely
Democratic
Primary
Voters
=
259
Margin
of
Error
=
+/-‐
6.1%
Overall
Kim 30%
Takai 24%
Chang 9%
Anderson 7%
Espero 6%
Manahan 1%
Unsure 23%
Male Female
Kim 33% 26%
Takai 27% 23%
Chang 6% 11%
Anderson 8% 5%
Espero 8% 4%
Manahan 1% 1%
Unsure 16% 30%
If
you
do
vote
in
the
Democratic
Congressional
primary,
what
would
you
do?
The
Democratic
primary
in
August
will
also
include
a
contest
for
the
First
District
Congressional
seat
currently
held
by
Colleen
Hanabusa.
The
candidates
include
State
Senator
Will
Espero;
State
Senator
Donna
Mercado
Kim;
State
Representative
Mark
Takai,
Honolulu
Councilman
Ikaika
Anderson;
Honolulu
Councilman
Stanley
Chang,
and
Honolulu
Councilman
Joey
Manahan.
3. Page
3 First
Congressional
District
Democratic
Primary
Under
50 50+
yrs
old
Kim 11% 35%
Takai 24% 26%
Chang 11% 8%
Anderson 14% 4%
Espero 8% 6%
Manahan 0% 2%
Unsure 31% 20%
Democrat Republican Independent Unsure
Kim 31% 7% 22% 0%
Takai 27% 39% 14% 0%
Chang 9% 9% 11% 0%
Anderson 8% 0% 5% 0%
Espero 4% 27% 11% 0%
Manahan 1% 6% 1% 0%
Unsure 20% 12% 35% 100%
Military
Family Non-‐Military
Family Refused
Kim 31% 26% 8%
Takai 25% 25% 34%
Chang 5% 17% 0%
Anderson 9% 4% 0%
Espero 5% 8% 0%
Manahan 1% 1% 0%
Unsure 23% 19% 58%
4. Page
4 First
Congressional
District
Democratic
Primary
Union
Family Non-‐Union
Family Refused
Kim 26% 29% 48%
Takai 32% 22% 2%
Chang 10% 9% 0%
Anderson 4% 9% 0%
Espero 8% 4% 14%
Manahan 0% 2% 0%
Unsure 20% 24% 36%
Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unusre
Kim 29% 28% 27% 31%
Takai 26% 24% 20% 33%
Chang 16% 8% 3% 2%
Anderson 0% 6% 25% 10%
Espero 5% 6% 4% 10%
Manahan 1% 1% 4% 0%
Unsure 23% 27% 16% 13%
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
Kim 32% 18% 33% 41% 42% 0% 36%
Takai 24% 33% 0% 11% 13% 0% 33%
Chang 13% 11% 0% 0% 15% 0% 5%
Anderson 15% 1% 0% 24% 0% 100% 6%
Espero 7% 4% 24% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Manahan 1% 1% 3% 3% 0% 0% 1%
Unsure 8% 31% 40% 8% 30% 0% 18%
$50,000
or
less $50,000
-‐
$100,000 $100,000
or
more Refused
Kim 38% 35% 16% 19%
Takai 16% 16% 46% 29%
Chang 3% 12% 11% 8%
Anderson 10% 9% 2% 7%
Espero 11% 1% 5% 14%
Manahan 2% 1% 1% 0%
Unsure 20% 27% 19% 23%
5. Page
5 First
Congressional
District
Democratic
Primary
First
District
Likely
Democratic
Primary
Voter
Demographics
Gender
Male 46%
Female 54%
Age
Under
50 26%
50
or
older 74%
Politics
Liberal/Progressive 35%
Moderate 39%
Conservative 13%
Unsure 13%
Party
Democrat 79%
Republican 4%
Independent 16%
Unsure 1%
Military
Family
Yes 63%
No 34%
Refused 2%
Union
Family
Yes 39%
No 57%
Refused 3%
6. Page
6 First
Congressional
District
Democratic
Primary
Ethnicity
Caucasian 25%
Japanese 37%
Filipino 9%
Hawaiian 5%
Chinese 6%
Hispanic 0%
Other/Mixed 17%
Income
Less
than
$50,000 20%
$50,000
-‐
$100,000 40%
$100,000
or
more 27%
Refused 13%