Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.
The German “Energiewende”
General Assembly of the “Renewable Energy Club”
Brussels, 04.12.2014, Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz
Agenda
1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende
2 RES generation – high expansion speed
3
System balance – challe...
3 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
4 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
5 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
6 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
7 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
8 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
9 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ener...
10 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
11 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
12 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
13 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
14 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
15 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
16 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
17 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
18 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
19 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
20 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
21 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
22 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
23 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
24 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
25 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
26 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
27 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
28 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
29 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
30 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
31 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
32 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
33 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
34 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
35 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
36 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
37 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
38 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
39 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
40 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
41 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
42 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
43 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
44 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
45 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
46 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
47 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
Many thanks for your attention!
Boris Schucht
CEO 50Hertz
50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Eichenstraße 3A
12435 Berlin
www.50Her...
49 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Ene...
Physical flow vs. commercial flow 50Hertz <-> PSE
Stress on European neighbour grids due to
unplanned load flows – 50Hertz-measures
Grid expansion
− reduces SoS-relevant
fl...
Findings from vPST pilot phase
− helpful tool
− limitation of available redispatch capacity
− additional trading capacity ...
Growing distributed generation goes along with
increasing system complexity
380 kV
110 kV
30 kV
0,4 kV
Electricity supply ...
Principles for online data exchange and control
TSO
DSO 1 n
neighbour
TSOs
consumption
DSO 1 n
consumption
consumption
• E...
German market splitting is a realistic threat
- Without North-South grid extension,
congestion cannot be avoided (resp.
be...
Scenario for market splitting simulation 2023
NTCborderline
255 320
220
Electricity
Generation
Electricity
Demand
75
25070...
Results of market splitting simulation 2023
Energy only market, German Grid Development Plan, Scenario B2023
40GW
12,5 GW
...
Overview: Impacts of inner-german price zones
Power exchange
prices
Increasing Power exchange prices
(+6 €/MWh) due to mis...
Prochain SlideShare
Chargement dans…5
×

Ga renewable energy club - 4 dec 2014 - presentation boris schucht ceo 50 hertz

757 vues

Publié le

Ga renewable energy club - 4 dec 2014 - presentation boris schucht ceo 50 hertz

Publié dans : Environnement
  • Soyez le premier à commenter

  • Soyez le premier à aimer ceci

Ga renewable energy club - 4 dec 2014 - presentation boris schucht ceo 50 hertz

  1. 1. The German “Energiewende” General Assembly of the “Renewable Energy Club” Brussels, 04.12.2014, Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz
  2. 2. Agenda 1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende 2 RES generation – high expansion speed 3 System balance – challenges imposed by RES4 6 Outlook – challenges ahead 5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende
  3. 3. 3 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 50Hertz is a fully unbundled TSO and part of the Elia Group Our shareholders are the Belgian TSO Elia (60% of shares) and the Australian infra- structure fund IFM Investors (40% of shares) 50Hertz operates in eight German federal states: Berlin, Hamburg, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and Schleswig- Holstein We ensure the supply of electricity to over 18 million people in Germany 50Hertz – regionally rooted and part of an international group Amprion Transnet BW TenneT TenneT Energinet.dk Source: 50Hertz
  4. 4. 4 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ The history of 50Hertz 1995 2002 2010200119901964 20082006 Verbundnetz Elektroenergie VEAG Creation Electrical reunification VEAG bought by Vattenfall VE Transmission Set-up 50Hertz sale to Elia and IFM Asset Transfer von HH und B HV-Grids VE T Carve Out
  5. 5. 5 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 50Hertz’ core figures at a glance – a renewable energy TSO par excellence 109,360 km² (31%) 9,995 km (29%) ~98 TWh (20%) ~16 GW (21%) Surface area Total length of lines Maximum load Energy consumption (based on electricity supplied to final consumers acc. to EEG) Installed capacity: - Renewables - Wind Turnover - Grid Values 2013 (Share in GER) 44,539 MW (~24%) 22,727 MW (~28%) 13,408 MW (~40%) 8.6 billion € 0.9 billion € Workforce 821 Source: 50Hertz, as at 31.12.2013
  6. 6. 6 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 50Hertz‘ responsibility for the society includes secure system operations, RES integration and market development Market facilitator Trustee for RES processes Catalyst of the electricity market development, esp. in northern and central-eastern Europe Responsible for the financial management of the renewable energy processes Source: 50Hertz System operator Responsible for the control and balancing of the transmission system, 24/7: frequency and voltage control, congestion management Transmission grid operator Responsible for the operation, maintenance and expansion of ultra-high voltage lines and connection of offshore wind farms
  7. 7. 7 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ The main challenges of the “Energiewende” for the electricity system Energiewende Fossile Welt Rapid growth of renewable and decentralised generation Decreasing profitability of conventional generation within the current market design Legal and procedural framework must be further developed to keep pace with renewables expansion (first important steps have been made in 2014) Increasing gap between grid development and renewables development Limited public acceptance for the consequences of the “Energiewende” (Infrastructure, costs) Competitiveness of energy prices and inefficiencies in the former development
  8. 8. 8 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Agenda 1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende 2 RES generation – high expansion speed 3 System balance – challenges imposed by RES4 6 Outlook – challenges ahead 5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende
  9. 9. 9 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ RES generation in Germany is rapidly increasing, this trend is likely to continue in the future wind photovoltaics biomass Coloured area proportional to installed capacity 2000 2006 2013 Source: 50Hertz, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, Google Earth EEG figures end of 2013: Capacity: >83 GW Energy: ~125 TWh EEG figures end of 2013: Capacity: >83 GW Energy: ~125 TWh
  10. 10. 10 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Forecasted RES capacity in Germany Wind and photovoltaics remain dominant players in RES development. 34 39 42 45 48 51 1 2 3 5 6 732 35 37 39 41 42 6 6 6 6 6 7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 others biomass wind onshore wind offshore photovoltaics Installed capacity in GW Trend-Scenario to determine the RES-surcharge in 2014 Source: r2b
  11. 11. 11 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Photovoltaics Wind Biomass Other RE EEG generations units in the 50Hertz grid area: Installed capacity and feed-in Asat31/12/2013; Source:50Hertz Successful development in the 50Hertz grid area. Electricity production from renewable energies covers approx. 37 % (36,7 TWh) of electricity consumption. 11304 13395 15101 18008 21915 23309 22,8 23,7 24,8 28,2 35,0 36,7 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feed-in in TWh InstalledcapacityinMWFeed-ininTWh Asat:31/12/2013; Source:EEG-Anlagestammdaten
  12. 12. 12 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 others biomass wind onshore wind offshore photovoltaics Renewables energies in the 50Hertz grid area: Present situation and forecast of installed capacity Installed capacity in MW As at 31/12/2013 2013 EEG mid-term forecast scenario „trend“ Forecast Current situation Installed capacity late 2013* wind 13564 MW photovoltaics 7758 MW biomass 1707 MW others 280 MW Total 23309 MW 2100 8100 15130 26530 32650 37380 * As at July 2014, Source: 50Hertz
  13. 13. 13 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Agenda 1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende 2 RES generation – high expansion speed 3 System balance – challenges imposed by RES4 6 Outlook – challenges ahead 5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende
  14. 14. 14 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Grid extension projects at 50Hertz Projects since 2009 Completed 250 km Under construction 240 km Approval procedure ~ 290 km Existing grid Planning procedure Approval procedure Approved Under construction Completed Substation (construction) Substation (50Hertz) ApprovedApproved 240 km
  15. 15. 15 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Development of offshore projects in the Baltic Sea 2011: Start operation Baltic 1 2012: Start construction Baltic 2 2014: Grid link Baltic 2 shortly before completion 2014: Contracting of wind farm operators at „westlich Adlergrund“ Potential wind energy (Baltic Sea): Approximately 5,000 MW Grid link at planning stage Grid link under construction Operating grid link Grid connection under construction Operating grid connection Reduced offshore goals are compatible with a consistent extension in the Baltic Sea.
  16. 16. 16 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ The Federal Requirement Plan as foundation for the grid expansion - Basis: 2012 Grid Development Plan of the TSOs - 36 projects confirmed - 3 HVDC corridors - Current Grid Development Plan confirms FRP - Law of FRP about to be updated in 2016 2012 Federal Requirement Plan Act adopted by German Bundestag in June 2013
  17. 17. 17 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ RESULTS 2. DRAFT NEP 2014 In spite of an intensive public consultation and a clear agreement to the grid extension of all federal states in Germany in 2013, the grid development plan is now put into question in principal ! ... AND SOME MEDIA HEADLINES
  18. 18. 18 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Congestion Management / Bidding Zones Studies show that price differences between Germany North and Germany South of 6 €/MWh could be expected. Germany North Germany South Austria If structural congestions persist and redispatch volumes exceed certain limits (>5% of load), market splitting could be an option. While reducing redispatch costs, this can have significant drawbacks in the market: − Higher costs for RES integration due to lower market prices in areas with high RES infeed. − Inefficient dispatch and higher overall system costs − Lower liquidity and higher risk premiums − Higher costs for balancing due to missing portfolio effects and lower liquidity. Advantages are a better international coordination due to market coupling and better price signals to include all possible market options. Activities Finish ENTSO-E Bidding Zone Study 2016 Committee work on market design continuous Coordination with Elia on market design issues continuous
  19. 19. 19 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Agenda 1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende 2 RES generation – high expansion speed 3 System balance – challenges imposed by RES4 6 Outlook – challenges ahead 5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende
  20. 20. 20 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ High speed of RES development imposes significant challenges on system balance RES forecasts inaccuracy, very short-term PV forecast changes Steeper RES power ramps in the future RES trading errors because of RES trading on an hourly basis Price spikes in the intraday market High frequency volatility and challenging frequency control 1h ¼h ..
  21. 21. 21 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Frequency control is getting more and more challenging due to steep RES power ramps and RES forecasts inaccuracy Source: 50Hertz 49,92 49,94 49,96 49,98 50 50,02 50,04 50,06 50,08 ~0,07Hz ~0,09Hz Average intraday frequency volatility October – December 2013 Hz
  22. 22. 22 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Frequency control is getting more and more challenging especially at hour change Source: 50Hertz Extreme frequency spikes on 17th October 2013 49,90 49,95 50,00 50,05 50,10 50,15 Maximum Minimu Critical frequency spikes (50.13 Hz) at hour change Hz
  23. 23. 23 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Fluctuating wind power Feed-in wind energy (01/12/2013 – 07/12/2013)Data feed-in of wind energy at 50Hertz (2013) Maximum feed-in 11,064 MW Minimal feed-in 0 MW Biggest increase within ¼ hour +1,431 MW Biggest decrease within ¼ hour -901 MW Biggest difference between Min and Max within one day 9,675 MW 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 Feed-ininMW Time in h Prognose HochtrechnungForecast Extrapolated feed-in
  24. 24. 24 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Fluctuating photovoltaics Data feed-in of pv at 50Hertz (2013) Maximum feed-in 5.346 MW Minimal feed-in 0 MW Biggest increase within ¼ hour 1.594 MW Biggest decrease within ¼ hour 752 MW Biggest difference between Min and Max within one day 5.346 MW pv-feed-in (01/06/2013 – 07/06/2013) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 Feed-ininMW Time in h Prognose HochrechnungForecast Extrapolated feed-in
  25. 25. 25 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Challenge Increasing gradients in short timeframes are getting more and more relevant, due to: 1) Stronger gradients from superposition of load, wind and solar generation 2) Short term adjustments due to forecast changes Position 50Hertz 1) Strengthen incentives for generators to be balanced by Imbalance Settlement Prices and create more efficient balancing markets 2) Enforce intraday trading by liquid markets and 15min products Challenges regarding System Balance – example Solar eclipse SolarInfeed(DE) Time Historical max. (wind + solar) at 9 Nov 2013: 10.5 GW / 90min Clear sky – no eclipse Clear sky – eclipse Cloudy sky – no eclipse Cloudy sky – eclipse Example: Solar eclipse on March 20th 2015 19,2 GW / 90min
  26. 26. 26 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 -10 -7,5 -5 -2,5 0 2,5 5 7,5 10 12,5 Last Last - Wind Last - Wind - PV Power ramps Germany 2013 – load still dominating but this will change with further RES increase As at 31/12/2013 GW/h Negative max. power ramp Positive max. power ramp Load Load – Wind Load – Wind – PV Frequency
  27. 27. 27 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Power ramps caused by RES already amount to > 5 GW/h and are expected to increase to max. ~15 GW/h in 2023 [GW] 2012 2023 2033 Maximum power ramps caused by wind and PV Consequences for the energy system Very high volatility of RES feed-in Extremely steep RES power ramps (>1,000 MW in 15 min in 2012) Only limited feed-in stabilisation via geographical distribution of RES facilities Flexible, non-volatile power plants required High requirements on RES forecasts, controllability of RES generation facilities and system operations Maximum ramps per ¼ hour Maximum ramps per hour Source: 50Hertz
  28. 28. 28 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Trading of RES on an hourly base is a serious problem because of steep power ramps Source: 50Hertz Load and trading products Trading errors
  29. 29. 29 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 P P - Wind P - Wind - PV GW/h Power ramps Germany 2013 Calculated based on 100% hourly RE-trading (no ¼-h-products used) As at 31/12/2013 Marketing of PV via One-hour-products would have become a big problem at the end of 2013 already. Frequency
  30. 30. 30 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ RES Forecasts Rather inaccurate day-ahead forecasts for wind and solar, improving intraday An up-to-date database and online availability of feed-in data is crucial German TSOs still rely much on estimates because of missing real time data There are only few service providers for online data and forecasts in the German market that supply all TSOs and market participants Enhanced RES forecasts are key for secure system operations and a well functioning German market! Plant DatabaseWeather Forecast Feed-in calculation Feed-in forecast Sophisticated RES forecasts in place, further improvements are needed
  31. 31. 31 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Day-ahead PV forecasts can be highly inaccurate in case of adverse weather conditions 0 5 10 15 20 3. Apr. 4. Apr. 5. Apr. 6. Apr. Day-ahead PV forecast Last intraday PV forecast GW Situation beginning of April 2013 (05/04/2013) Consequences of forecast errors Major errors in the day-ahead PV forecast (up to 8800 MW in Germany) Reasons for errors: dense fog Last intraday forecast similar to PV extrapolation PV extrapolation Source: 50Hertz
  32. 32. 32 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ TSOs have to deal with very short-term PV forecast changes which amount to several GW 6:00 9:00 12:00 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 MW 3,1 GW 1,2 GW Source: 50Hertz Intraday PV forecasts Intraday forecast changes for 12 pm
  33. 33. 33 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Inaccuracy of PV forecasts and very short-term PV forecast changes lead to price spikes in the intraday market 0 100 200 300 400 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr ID-Min ID-Max ID-Average Day-ahead €/MWh Intraday pices, situation beginning of April 2013
  34. 34. 34 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Agenda 1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende 2 RES generation – high expansion speed 3 System balance – challenges imposed by RES4 6 Outlook – challenges ahead 5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende
  35. 35. 35 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Three control power types exist to keep frequency of 50Hz Reserve Regelung durch ÜNB Reserve 30 s 15 min 60 minT0 Reserve by suppliers Inertia aFRR mFRRPC 5 min PC: Primary control aFRR : Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve = secondary control mFRR: Manual Frequency Restoration Reserve = tertiary control (minute reserve) Control by TSOs Source: 50Hertz So far there has been no need for significant changes in control power products, as control power prices have been steadily decreasing in recent years. This might change as the Energiewende is gaining pace.
  36. 36. 36 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Despite a slight downward trend in the recent years, control power volumes are expected to increase in the future - 2 4 6 8 10 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GW MRL_NEG MRL_POS SRL_NEG SRL_POS PRL Development of control power volumes Grid Control Cooperation (GCC) made it possible to reduce control power volumes in the recent years. Despite GCC we expect an increase of control power in the future as RES share will continue to rise. Source: 50Hertz
  37. 37. 37 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Increase of RES share has a strong impact on balancing energy demand 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 20 40 60 80 100 Installed RES capaity, [GW] Balancing energy, [GW] today Increase of installed RES capacity by 1 GW leads to increase of balancing energy demand by 50-60 MW Model: Normally distributed load forecast mistakes, normally distributed RES forecast mistakes Source: 50Hertz Impact of RES on balancing energy demand
  38. 38. 38 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Integration of renewable energies in control power markets Reduction of conventional must run capacity Challenges regarding Renewables – Market integration 29.01.2011 31.01.2011 02.02.2011 04.02.2011 06.02.2011 -4.000 -2.000 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 Leistung[MW] Windeinspeisung Lippendorf Reuter Preilack Boxberg Schkopau Schwarze Pumpe Rostock PSW Goldisthal PSW Hohenwarte PSW Markersbach Wind Powerinfeed[MW] Coal Water Thermal generation during a winter storm
  39. 39. 39 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Control power prices are highly volatile and their development is difficult to predict 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 m€ MRL_NEG MRL_POS SRL_NEG SRL_POS PRL - 50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 T€/MW*a PRL SRL_POS SRL_NEG MRL_POS MRL_NEG Development of control power costs Development of control power prices Source: 50Hertz
  40. 40. 40 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ In situations with major imbalances available control power can be fully exhausted 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Area Control Error (ACE) IGCC imbalance netting SRL MRL Notreserven Grenze der Regelfähigkeit von Deutschland Control not possible any more Control possible ACE peaks (primary control energy of neighbour countries used)MW Secondary control Emergency reserve Primary control Limit of control capability in Germany Source: 50Hertz Activation of control power in Germany on 5th April 2013
  41. 41. 41 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ New providers of control power are very welcome: Electric boilers and a steel mill prequalified in the 50Hertz control area Electric boilers Stadtwerke Schwerin Three electric boilers prequalified for secondary control (aFRR) provision Up to 10 MW aFRR Start of aFRR marketing in December 2013 Steel mill Hamburg Electric furnace 3 of ArcelorMittal Hamburg GmbH prequalified for tertiary control provision (mFRR) Up to 70 MW mFRR Start of mFRR marketing in 2010 Sources: Stadtwerke Schwerin, ArcelorMittal Hamburg GmbH
  42. 42. 42 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ New providers of control power are very welcome: Batteries prequalified in the 50Hertz control area Source: YOUNICOS Battery Berlin-Adlershof Power: 1 MW Capacity: 6.2 MWh Technology: Lithium-Ion Sodium-Sulphur Commissioning: 01/2012 Usage: primary control Battery Schwerin Power: 5 MW Capacity: 5 MWh Technology: Lithium-Ion Commissioning: 09/2014 Usage: primary control
  43. 43. 43 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ New providers of control power are very welcome: aluminium electrolysis and Zuhausekraftwerke in the 50Hertz control area Lichtblick pilot (Zuhausekraftwerke) Joint project of LichtBlick Energie und Innovation GmbH and German TSOs Start in 2014 with 5 MW secondary control (aFRR) Potential of up to 100 MW control power Utilisation of storage potentials of the so-called Zuhausekraftwerke (Home power plants) Trimet project (aluminium electrolysis) Provision of 30 MW primary control by TRIMET Aluminium AG via aluminium electrolysis Start of primary control marketing in 2011 Thanks to technology applied best control quality in the 50Hertz control area Sources: LichtBlick Energie und Innovation GmbH, TRIMET Aluminium AG
  44. 44. 44 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Integration of balancing markets to foster competition and promote exchange of balancing services Network code on Electricity Balancing Integration, coordination and harmonisation of electricity balancing rules Harmonisation of products Move from balancing on a national level to larger markets allowing effective resources usage Code submitted to ACER in December 2013 Pilot projects with 50Hertz participation International Grid Control Cooperation (IGCC) for imbalance netting in DE, BE, AT, DK, NL, SH, CZ Joint procurement of primary control with Switzerland (25 MW) and Netherlands (35 MW) Source: ENTSO-E; network codes.eu, Wikipedia
  45. 45. 45 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Agenda 1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende 2 RES generation – high expansion speed 3 System balance – challenges imposed by RES4 6 Outlook – challenges ahead 5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende
  46. 46. 46 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Operational challenges ahead The quality of RES and load forecasts has increased, but still should be further developed. Online data exchange between TSOs and their customers is to be further improved, controllability of generators and loads in underlying grids should be ensured. Large gradients of RES and changing weather forecasts are drivers for intraday markets and ¼ hour products. Trading of ¼ hour products should be strengthened, liquidity is to be further increased. Source: 50Hertz Those responsible for balancing groups should be motivated to improve balancing group management. Higher penalties should ensure that balancing group deviations are significantly reduced or are supporting a current situation.
  47. 47. 47 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Strategic challenges ahead RES generators should participate in provision of control power and other ancillary services. To further promote decarbonisation of the electricity supply, new options for ancillary services and flexibility tools must be made available. Source: 50Hertz Necessary preconditions should be established to increase demand flexibility, especially in industrial and business customers segment. Tendering of control power should be further developed towards new products and market-oriented solutions. Value of flexibility needs to be increased and supported by future market design.
  48. 48. Many thanks for your attention! Boris Schucht CEO 50Hertz 50Hertz Transmission GmbH Eichenstraße 3A 12435 Berlin www.50Hertz.com
  49. 49. 49 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“ Back up
  50. 50. Physical flow vs. commercial flow 50Hertz <-> PSE
  51. 51. Stress on European neighbour grids due to unplanned load flows – 50Hertz-measures Grid expansion − reduces SoS-relevant flows − ensuring efficiency and cost effectiveness = challenge − reduces SoS-relevant flows − investment required − ensures SoS in entire system − enables integrated European market Redispatch („virtual PST“) Phase shifters (physical PST) short-term middle-term long-term
  52. 52. Findings from vPST pilot phase − helpful tool − limitation of available redispatch capacity − additional trading capacity was used − installation of Phase Shift Transformers at the German-Polish border Charge by unplanned power flows Discharge by virtual PST measures Change of power plant output Trigger Power Flow Limit PowerFlow vPSTMeasure vPST – first activation and main conclusions
  53. 53. Growing distributed generation goes along with increasing system complexity 380 kV 110 kV 30 kV 0,4 kV Electricity supply system – tomorrow 500 kV HVDC • 149 DSOs in 50Hertz area • More than 1400 wind farms on different voltage levels • Other RES generators (mainly solar) with limited availability of data • Changing load flow patterns with bi-directional flows • New IT and communication tasks among a huge number of players 50Hertz control area is an example for such challenging environment
  54. 54. Principles for online data exchange and control TSO DSO 1 n neighbour TSOs consumption DSO 1 n consumption consumption • Each network operator responsible for his network • Full transparency across networks and voltage levels needed • Online interaction between network operators via connection points • Data aggregation at connection points possible in order to reduce complexity • Intense coordination necessary to avoid counter productive actions • Support from German Regulator based on a common data list and a stepwise approach Common understanding of German market participants (BDEW consensus)
  55. 55. German market splitting is a realistic threat - Without North-South grid extension, congestion cannot be avoided (resp. between 50Hertz and Tennet). - Enduring congestion would call for German market splitting: - BNetzA and German TSOs are investigating German-Austrian market splitting. - Science and also EU are discussing market splitting within Germany (see ENTSO-E report). - Swedish infringement case: Outcome has been a market splitting in 4 areas according to a EC decision. - Strongest counter argument up to now has been the planned grid extension. Source: ENTSO-E Technical Report 2011/2012 Bottlenecks in German grid 2012 A German market splitting would make further grid extension across different bidding areas extremely difficult.
  56. 56. Scenario for market splitting simulation 2023 NTCborderline 255 320 220 Electricity Generation Electricity Demand 75 25070 Electricity Generation Electricity Demand RES –Generation Conventional Generation TWh TWh TWh TWh Generation 2023 Base: NEP Scenario B2023; NTC 12,5 GW 12,5 GW NTC RES –Generation Conventional Generation - Market Splitting North-South as widely discussed* - German Grid Development Plan (scenario B2023) assumed, leaving out South East DC line. - In order to avoid major redispatch volumes, an NTC of 10 to 15 GW is needed - Rather low NTC needed to reduce also lignite generation in 50Hertz area with lowest variable costs - Not necessarily the most efficient bidding area cut. * See ENTSO-e Bidding-Zone-Study, APG-Study 2012, Bettzüge 2014
  57. 57. Results of market splitting simulation 2023 Energy only market, German Grid Development Plan, Scenario B2023 40GW 12,5 GW Average spot market price 40€/MWh 46€/MWh electricity price increase in Southern Germany. NTC at about 600 m€ p.a. additional costs because of less efficient generation dispatch. less production in Northern German, lower profitability of plants and CHP. More reduction of wind power in the North.
  58. 58. Overview: Impacts of inner-german price zones Power exchange prices Increasing Power exchange prices (+6 €/MWh) due to missing production capacity and expensive technologies (Gas, Hydro, PS, PV, ) Capacity markets Significant higher capacity prices due to need of new plants/capacity deficit (+2-3 €/MWh) Market split for different types of control power/Ancillary services leading to higher prices in North and South. Markets for Ancillary Services Slightly decreasing power exchange prices due to cheap exceeding production (wind, lignite); Conventional and CHP are used more seldom Lower capacity prices due to over capacity in South-Germany in North-Germany EEG Costs for EEG-support grow in North and South due to decreasing power exchange prices leading to lower wind electricity value. Higher production costs in North and South due to inefficiencies from about 600 Millionen Euro per year.

×