Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.
PV	Manufacturing in	Europe	Conference
19	&	19	May	2017	– BIP,	Rue	Royale	2-4,	Brussels
Program
• Global	PV	Market and	Industry status
• Gaëtan	Masson,	Becquerel	 Institute,	ETIP	PV	Vice-Chairman
• Solar	Photov...
Program
• Silicon Solar	Cells – Current Production	 and	Future	Concepts
• Martin	Hermle,	Fraunhofer	ISE
• Epitaxial Wafers...
PV Markzttan Masson, Director
Becquerel Institute
Global PV Markets &
Industry Status
Ir Gaëtan Masson
Director, Becquerel...
2
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
2
BECQUEREL INSTITUTE
• Research oriented Institute and
consulting company for Solar PV...
3
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
3
DYING UTILITIERevolution
Dead technologies
Dying utilities
4
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
4
FROM 1.1 TO 75 GW IN 12 YEARS ?
75 GW
5%
PV Market Alliance 2017
303 GW
5
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
5
75 GW INSTALLED IN 2016
IEA-PVPS 2017
6
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
6
FROM 2015 TO 2016
- China grew 15 to 34 GW
- US grew from 7 to 14,7 GW
- Japan went d...
7
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
7
QUARTERLY INSTALLATIONS 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 - Q1 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - ...
8
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
8
PV PENETRATION
IEA-PVPS 2017
9
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
9
PERSPECTIVES
Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016
75
10
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
10
PERSPECTIVES
>>> The cheapest source of electricity
Source: PV Market Alliance – Be...
11
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
11
MARKET DRIVERS
PV market developments in …
- China ?
- Japan – stable or decreasing...
12
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
12
TECHNOLOGIES
13
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
13
TECHNOLOGIES
14
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
14
COMING SOON
15
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
15
COSTS AND PRICES
16
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
16
ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE
Source: Becquerel Institute 2016
What about the costs ?
17
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
17
PV PRICE LEARNING CURVE
0,4 USD/Wp
97%
production
37% LC
20% LC
0,45 USD/WP – 275 G...
18
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
18
4.2. THIN FILM LEARNING CURVES
Source: Becquerel Institute 2016
19
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
19
PRICE EVOLUTION OF PV COMPONENTS
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
PV Grade Polysilicon
(9N...
20
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
20
PRICE AND MARKET SITUATION
- Low module prices reflect uncertainty and
overcapaciti...
21
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
21
FOOD FOR THOUGHTS
22
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
22
SENSITIVITY OF LCOE
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
Contribution to the LCOE per com...
23
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
23
TECHNOLOGY VIEW
Evolution of efficiencies change the market
conditions: from nov 20...
24
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
24
GAME CHANGER?
Evolution of efficiencies change the market
conditions: thin film CdT...
25
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
25
CONCLUSIONS
Will we reach more than 75 GW ? Yes but when?
China is the key market t...
26
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
26
ENJOY THE SUN EVEN IF…
g.masson@becquerelinstitute.org
Becquerelinstitute.org
www.pvmarketalliance.com
Thank you for
your attention
Joint Research Centre
the European Commission's in-house science service
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting...
JRC’s Mission and Role
Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation
Vision:
"To play a central role in ...
The Joint Research Centre
€ 386 million Budget
annually,
plus € 62 million
earned
income
125
instances of support
to the E...
Contents
• Why Decarbonisation of Electricity
• Technology Trends
• PV Manufacturing
• Capacity Expansion
• Report on Asse...
Why
Decarbonisation of
Electricity
Electricity Demand Projection
Data source: IEA WEO 2106
2014: ~ 23,800 TWh
2040: ~ 39,000 TWh
Electricity Demand in Buildings
Data source: IEA WEO 2106
Carbon Intensity of Electricity
Data source: NPS IEA WTO 2106
Carbon Intensity of Electricity
Data source: NPS IEA WTO 2106
BUT
Needed for 1.5ºC Scenario:
Below 65g/kWh
GHG emissions of Electricity
Data source: IEA WTO 2106
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2040
NPS
2040
450ppm
GHGemissions[Gt]
tota...
Technology Trends
PV Value Chain
Thin Films
Commercial CdTe modules
Q1/2012 (12.4%)
Q1/2017 (16.7%) +34.7%
Commercial CIGS modules
2010: between 7 and 11%
...
Crystalline Silicon
Polysilicon
Siemens Process 2016: 65 –125 kWh/kg
FBR 2016: 20 – 50 kWh/kg
Power Output per Wafer
mc : ...
Crystalline Silicon
Average Cell Efficiency
mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2016(18.9%) +11.2%
mono: 2012 (18.6%) 2016(20.9%) +12.4%
Ave...
Crystalline Silicon
New Production Technologies
• Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC)
• 4 and 5 busbar solar cells (4BB, ...
Annual PV Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
Annual...
Module Price Experience Curve
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
PVModulePrice[USD2016/Wp]
Cumulative Mo...
Module Price Experience Curve
Solar Cell and Thin Film manufacturing in EU and Turkey
Name of Company
Country of
Production
Cell Capacity
[MW]
Module Ca...
CAPEX Development
Cell & Module Manufacturing
Year
Capacity
[MW] Country
CAPEX
[mil. USD]
CAPEX/W
[USD]
2011 1 000 USA 680...
Capacity Expansion
Technology
(in order of announced MWs)
• PERC
• "standard c-Si technology"
• CdTe
• CIGS
• HJ
• Bifacial
Capacity Expansion
Where are the new plants build
(top 5 in order of announced MWs)
• India
• South Korea
• China
• Thaila...
Assessment of Photovoltaics (PV)
Study
2015/RTD/SC/PP-03601-2015
• Assessment of the current
situation of the PV sector in...
Possible Strategies
Possible Implementation Measures
Conclusions
• Decarbonisation of Energy sector mandatory for fullfilling the
Paris Agreement
• Solar is one of the pillars...
Thank you for your attention!
› Implementation Plan of the PV Temporary Working
Group
Christoph Hünnekes, Wim Sinke, Fabio Belloni
Content
› The SET Plan
› Declaration of Intent (DoI)
› TWP PV
› Implementation Plan (IP)
› Next Steps
What's the SET Plan?
› Key innovation pillar of the Energy Union
› Comprehensive energy R&I agenda to accelerate innovatio...
Energy Union and SET Plan priorities
Energy Union R&I and
competitiveness pillar
SET Plan 10 Key Actions
SET Plan Declarat...
Main SET Plan steps
SET Plan 10 Key Actions:
Communication Sept. 2015
Setting targets: Declarations of Intent
Set-up of te...
Declaration of Intent
› Targets
(adaption following the discussion at the TWG PV kick-off meeting)
6
Declaration of Intent
› Targets
(adaption following the discussion at the TWG PV kick-off meeting)
7
Declaration of Intent
8
Temporary Working Group
› Composition
› 11 Member States representatives (Cypress, Belgium, Estonia, France,
Germany, Ital...
Temporary Working Group
› Role of SET Plan countries and stakeholders
participating in the WG
› Support the preparation of...
Temporary Working Group
› SET Plan countries not participating in the WG are kept
informed about the progress
› Regular up...
Implementation Plan
12
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities to be carried out
› Crucial aspect of the Plan!
› Maximum 10 R&I activit...
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
14
6 activities
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
15
Activity Description
PV for BIPV and
similar applications
This propos...
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
16
Activity Description
Technologies for
Silicon Solar Cells
and Modules...
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
17
Activity Description
New Technologies &
Materials
Crystalline silicon...
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
18
Activity Description
Development of PV
power plants and
diagnostic
Th...
Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
19
Activity Description
Cross-sectoral
research at lower
TRL
With respec...
Implementation Plan
› Funding
› Main source: National level (e.g. Governmental funding, stakeholders’
funding, or a combin...
Next Steps
› Set up subgroups on each activity which work on an detailed
description of activities by End of June ´17 cont...
Bildnachweis Titelfolie:
3D-Montage: Projektträger Jülich, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
Motive v.l.n.r.: PN_Photo/iStock/...
100% RENEWABLES IN EUROPE
Christian Breyer
Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland
PV Manufacturing in Europe Confe...
2 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Agenda
 Global Scenarios / Current ...
3 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
We witness the start of the Solar Ag...
4 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Global Energy Scenarios: Selected Ov...
5 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Current status of the power plant mi...
6 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Agenda
 Global Scenarios / Current ...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
7
LUT Energy System Model
Full system
...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
8
LUT Energy System Model
Key Objectiv...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
9
LUT Energy System Model
publications...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
10
LUT Energy System Model
Data – Fina...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
11
LUT Energy System Model
Data – Fina...
12 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Agenda
 Global Scenarios / Current...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
13
Results: Global view for Overnight ...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
14
Scenarios assumptions
Generation pr...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
15
Results
Regions Electricity Generat...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
16
Results
Total LCOE (year 2030) – Ar...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
17
Regions LCOE
region-
wide
LCOE
area...
18 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Cost comparison of ’cleantech’ solu...
19 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Agenda
 Global Scenarios / Current...
20
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition...
21
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition...
22
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition...
23
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition...
24 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Global Internet of Energy
Global In...
25 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Global Internet of Energy: Europe
G...
26 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Agenda
 Global Scenarios / Current...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
27
Summary
• Total LCOE on a European ...
Thank you for your attention …
… and to the team!
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Fi...
Back-up Slides
30
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition...
31
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition...
32 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Temporal Resolution in Global Scena...
33 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
100% RE Scenarios: Country to Globa...
34 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
100% RE Scenarios: Country to Globa...
35 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
100% RE Scenarios: Country to Globa...
36 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Batteries and EVs – Very high dynam...
37 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Power-to-X – covering hydrocarbon d...
100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
38
Synfuels production in Maghreb
sour...
Source: www.siemens.com/presse
VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page
1 |
International Technology Roadmap
for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) 8th e...
Outline
Page
2 |
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRPV – Results 2016
- Wafer
- Cell...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRPV – Results 2016
- Wafer - Materials, Pr...
ITRPV – Methodology
Working group today includes 40 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US
Participating
companies
Indepen...
Review ITRPV predictions
Review ITRPV predictions
Silver amount per cell
0,45
0,4
0,35
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
2009 2...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRPV – Results 2016
- Wafer - Materials, Pr...
PV learning Curve
Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments
10-1 106
107
10-1 100
101
102
103
...
Price considerations
Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments
ITRPV2017
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
1...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRPV – Results 2016
- Si / Wafer - Material...
Silicon – Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology
Poly Si price trend:
E 2012: 20 US$/kg
≈14 US$/kg
à oversupply situation...
Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (1)
90%
100%
110%
120%
160
140%
140
130%
120
150%
Trend:throughputcrystallization/w...
Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (2)
diamond wire wafering now mainstream for mono-Si
à Throughut 2x – 3x faster tha...
Wafer – market share of wafer dimensions (new)
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017
156.0 +-0.5...
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1st 2nd 3rd
2009
4th 5th
ITRPV Edition
6th 7th 8th
Waferthickness [µm]
2015 2017
•...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100%
90%
2016
p-type mc
2017
p-type HPmc
2019 2021
p-type monolike
2024
p-type mono
202...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRPV – Results 2016
- Si / Wafer - Material...
ITRPV2017
Trend for remaining silver per cell (156x156mm²)
120
20
* avg. cellefficiency 19.6 % ≈ 4.8 Wp/cell
0
2016 2017 2...
Cell – Processes: cell production tool throughputs
ITRPV2017
3.000
Trends: tool througput ncrease + synchronization of fro...
Cell – processes: c-Si metallization technologies
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2016
screen printing
2017 2...
Cell – processes: finger width / number of bus bars / bifaciality
ITRPV2017
0
10
20
2016 2017
Finger width
2019 2021 2024
...
Cell – processes: emitter formation for low J0frontITRPV2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027
O...
Cell – processes: technology for low J0rear
TRPV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2016 2017
PECVD AlOx + capping layer
2019 2021...
Cell – Products: cell technologies / cell efficiency trends
ITRPV2017
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
Average stabilized effic...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRVP – Results 2016
- Si / Wafer - Material...
Module – Materials: foils
Trend: share of encapsulant materials Trend: share of back-sheet materials
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
...
Module – Processes: interconnection technology
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2016 2017
lead-containing sold...
Module – Products: module power outlookITRPV2017
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
2016 2017
acidic textured multi-S...
Module – Products: framed modules and J-Boxes
Trend: share of frameless c-Si modules
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
...
Module – Products: module size
TRPV
2021 2024
quarter cell
2027
full cell
ITRPV2017
2016 2017
Trend: share of cell dimensi...
Module – Products: module reliability (new)
Trend: warranty conditions and degradation for c-Si modules
Waranty requiremen...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRVP – Results 2016
- Si / Wafer - Material...
Systems – Balance of system (BOS) for power plants
TRPV
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
2016 2017 2019
Module Inverter Wiring
20...
Sstems – Components: system voltage /tracking
2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2019
systems with...
Systems – Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE)
Trend: LCoE progress – a minimum approach
ITRPV2017
0,077
0,073
0,065 0,063...
Outline
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRVP – Results 2016
- Si / Wafer - Material...
Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments
10-1
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
]
p
W100 ITRPV2...
PV market trend until 2050: logistic growth
ITRPV2017
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040...
Summary
VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page
38 |
• Silicon PV will remain a fast (evolutionary) developing
technology
• Further reducti...
Thank you
for your attention!
Source: www.siemens.com/presse
VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page
39 |
Contact us:
jutta.trube@vdma.org
...
© Fraunhofer ISE
SILICON SOLAR CELLS – CURRENT
PRODUCTION AND FUTURE CONCEPTS
Martin Hermle
Fraunhofer Institute for
Solar...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
2
PV Module Production Development by Technology
It is still silicon …
Production 2015 (GW...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
3
SILICON SOLAR CELLS – CURRENT
PRODUCTION AND FUTURE CONCEPTS
 PRESENT
 Current product...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
4
Present
Screen-printed Al-BSF Solar Cell on p-Type Silicon
 Production data from
Hanwha...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
5
Present
Screen-printed Al-BSF Solar Cell on p-Type Silicon
 Production data from
Hanwha...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
6
 Different BOS for
different Countries
 Current Module
price < 0.5 $/W
 Module price ...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
7
Present
From Al-BSF to PERC
 Replacement of the full
area Al-BSF with a partial
rear co...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
8
Present
From Al-BSF to PERC
 Q.ANTUM production
data from Hanwha
QCELLS
 Still 0.6 %ab...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
9
From Present to Future
Silicon Solar Cell Production: What is the Efficiency Limit?
 As...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
10
From Present to Future
PERC – What is the Limit
 Continuous increasing is
possible by
...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
11
From Present to Future
PERC – What is the Limit
 Continuous increasing is
possible by
...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
12
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Averagecellconversionefficiency[%]
From P...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
13
From Present to Future
Heterojunction Solar Cells
 Lean process flow
 Highly efficien...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
14
From Present to Future
Passivating Contacts with Oxide and Polysilicon
Tunnel oxide
EC
...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
15
From Present to Future
TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts
Material Area Voc Jsc...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
16
From Present to Future
TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts
Material Area Voc Jsc...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
17
From Present to Future
TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts
Material Area Voc Jsc...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
18
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Averagecellconversionefficiency[%]
From P...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
19
From Present to Future
Back Junction Back Contact with Passivating Contacts
 Kaneka (H...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
20
From Present to Future
Back Junction Back Contact with Passivating Contacts
 Physical ...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
21
Future
What is the Limit of Silicon Solar Cells
 Shockley, Queisser (1961)
Limit for S...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
22
Future
What is the Limit of Silicon Solar Cells
 Shockley, Queisser (1961)
Limit for S...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
23
Future
Beyond the Single Junction-Limit
 Light management
 Up-conversion
 Down-conve...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
24
Future
Perovskite / Silicon Tandem Cells
 Perovskite has a wide,
tunable bandgap
appro...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
25
Future
III/V / Silicon Tandem
Si (1.12 eV)
GaAs (1.42 eV)
GaInP (1.88 eV)
 III/V solar...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
26
Beyond the Limit
2-terminal GaInP/AlGaAs//Si >30% @1-Sun AM1.5g
 Efficient utilization...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
27
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Averagecellconversionefficiency[%]
Beyond...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
28
Conclusion
 Silicon is it the working horse
of Photovoltaic
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
29
Conclusion
 Silicon is it the working horse
of Photovoltaic
 Conversion efficiency is...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
30
Conclusion
 Silicon is it the working horse
of Photovoltaic
 Conversion efficiency is...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
31
Conclusion
 Silicon is it the working horse
of Photovoltaic
 Conversion efficiency is...
© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
32
Thank you for your attention!
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
martin....
Epitaxial Wafers:
A game-changing technology on
its way to mass production
ETIP-PV Manufacturing Conference
Brussels, May ...
2
NexWafe: producer of high-quality silicon wafers
Confidential
NexWafe will supply to solar cell manufacturers
superior q...
3
Firm footing, strongly backed
Confidential
Freiburg/Br.
Founded in 2015 as a spin-off of
Fraunhofer ISE
Series A closed ...
4
Agenda
Confidential
Epitaxial Wafers: A game-changing technology on its way to mass production
Market needs
EpiWafers – ...
5
Market needs
Confidential
6
Market needs
Confidential
Source:ITRPVEighthEdition2017
efficiency gain
of up to 25%rel
mono wafers of
“high” and
“highe...
7
The PV-industry needs disruptive approaches to cut cost
Confidential
Drivers for future cost reduction
Module manufactur...
8
Standard wafer processing: low material usage, high cost
Confidential
High losses limit cost reduction potential severel...
9
EpiWafers – smart and efficient value chain by kerfless wafering
Confidential
Reduced silicon consumption
Dramatically l...
10
EpiWafer
Confidential
Drop-in replacement of conventional wafers for high efficiency cells
11
re-usable Si seed wafer
Epitaxially grown Si wafer
Monocrystalline
“EpiWafer”
Detachment
Kerfless Si
wafer
Epitaxy
re-u...
12
Full-square wafer format: Higher solar cell and module power
Better control of wafer parameters: Narrower module effici...
13
EpiWafer achievements
Confidential
Efficiencies > 20% and lifetimes in ms range proven
C. Gemmel et al., Journal of Pho...
14
Challenge “mass production”
Confidential
Quality can be perfect…
…but how can we produce
billions of good
EpiWafers??
15
Mass production requires more than bulk lifetime!
Very high throughput, modular scalable
› 1000’s of wafers per hour pe...
16
Out of the lab into production
Confidential
Mass production based on a mature inline process
building on 20 years of R&...
17
Efficient and scalable 250 MW factory
Confidential
Two factory parts:
› EpiWafer factory
› Chemical plant for vent gas ...
18
NexWafe’s EpiWafers – innovation, growth and competitiveness
Confidential
NexWafe brings solar wafer production back to...
19
LET’S BE AMBITIOUS!
Confidential
20
Acknowledgements
Confidential
NexWafe acknowledges funding
by
German Federal Ministry of
Economics and Foreign Affairs
...
Confidential
Dr. Stefan Reber
Stefan.Reber@nexwafe.com
NexWafe GmbH
Hans-Bunte-Str. 19
79108 Freiburg
Germany
Phone: +49 7...
C3PV
From Space Solar Cell to CPV Systems
Gerhard Strobl, Werner Bensch, Stephan Mayer
Bruxelles, 19th May 2017
Agenda
1. AZUR SPACE Solar Power
2. Solar Cells for Satellites and Terrestrial CPV
3. C3PV - System and Business Model
4. ...
1 –AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH
Company Overview
3
AZUR SPACE
Company History
4
(c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
1964
1974
1988
5
(c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
First silicon spa...
AZUR
(1968/69)
Alphasat
(2013)
Hubble Telescope
(1978/90)
Venus Express
(2005)
Intelsat
(1996/98)
Rosetta Mission
(2000)
G...
2 – Solar Cells for Satellites and
Terrestrial CPV
III/V Multijunction Solar Cells
§ Large wafer area (up to 150mm)
§ Material engineering forAs, P-based III-V semiconductor...
Terrestrial CPV Solar Cells
„From Space to Earth“
Space 3G30:
Large cell area,
Operation at 1x AM0,
Radiation hardness
Ter...
Solar Cell Production Status at AZUR
> AZUR‘s spacesolarcells (3G30) are the most radiation hard product
in the marketand ...
3 – C3PV -
System and Business Model
C3PV System
Interior View of the Module
30% Efficiency
EFA®
3C44 Cell
C3PV System
3.5kW, 10.8m2
Concept:
12
(c) AZUR SPACE...
• Equipped with mostefficientsolarcells on the marketwith 44%
• Module efficiencyabove30% (STC)
• More competive pricethan...
Hi-Tech in Europe
1. Fresnel Lenses
2. EFA® - „Enhanced Fresnel Assembly“
(solar cell, by-pass diode, secondary optics mou...
C3PV Production Status at AZUR
> EFA® (EnhancedFresnelAssembly) productionline – 50MW
> Module pilot production and demo l...
4 – Summary
Conclusion
17
(c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
> AZUR is world mark...
Thank you for your attention !
Co-funded by
the European Union
Technology Game Changers
PV Manufacturing in Europe
PV MANUFACTURING IN EUROPE CONFERENCE (ETIP-PV)
Brussels, May 19th 201...
www.innoenergy.com 2INNOENERGY
Innovation
Projects
Education
InnoEnergy
Business
Creation
250Project partners
across Europ...
www.innoenergy.com 3INNOENERGY
Making connections: the power of the network
6 co-location centres
26 shareholders
250 addi...
www.innoenergy.com 4EU CONTEXT
Winter package
Re-industrialization of Europe as the Goal:
• Create 900.000 new jobs
• Mobi...
www.innoenergy.com 5
TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARE
Source IHS
pC-Si mC-Si CdTe CIGS a-Si
PV KEY TECHNOLOGIES
* Crystalline Silic...
www.innoenergy.com
PV Value Chain Innovation Assessment
DELPHOS: INNOENERGY KEY TOOL FOR ASSESSING OPPORTUNITIES 6
Link: h...
www.innoenergy.com 7LCOE METHODOLOGY TO DRIVE PV MANUFACTURING INNOVATION
How the innovations impact the LCOE
How the revi...
www.innoenergy.com 8INNOVATIONS IN c-Si PV CELL MANUFACTURING
TOKYO
©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
www.innoenergy.com 9INNOVATIONS IN c-Si PV MODULE MANUFACTURING
TOKYO
©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
www.innoenergy.com 10INNOVATIONS IN THIN FILM PV CELL & MODULE MANUFACTURING
TOKYO
©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
www.innoenergy.com 11INNOVATIONS IN INVERTER MANUFACTURING
TOKYO
©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
www.innoenergy.com 12INNOVATIONS IN c-Si and TF LEADING MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES
www.innoenergy.com 13IS IT POSSIBLE FOR PV TO BE THE ULTIMATE GAME CHANGER?
0 €/MWh
50 €/MWh
100 €/MWh
150 €/MWh
200 €/MWh...
www.innoenergy.com 14INNOENERGY PROJECTS AND VENTURES
POWCELL FASCOM Epicomm EnThiPV EFFIC BIPV-Insight
Innovation Project...
www.innoenergy.com
InnoEnergy is supported by the EIT,
a body of the European Union
Javier Sanz – CTO Renewable Energies
j...
3SUN: Innovative Advanced Technology Factory
for PV Module R(e)volution
A. Canino
3SUN
May 19°, 2017
Outline
2
• EGP positioning and key figures
• Modules cost reduction
• Enel Green Power Core Business
• Business model
• 3...
EGP positioning and key figures
3
Key figures
Capacity1 (GW)
Production (TWh)
Key financials (€bn)
EBITDA
Opex
Maintenance...
The outlook for renewables
4
Decoupling between installations and investments
Solar costs down 90% since 2009
Performance ...
Costs
ITRPV 2017
5
Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016
à Market driven
à Poly-Si share increased
à High pressure o...
Global Solar Demand in 2017
IHS 2017
• 79 GW of global installations with upside
potential of 85 GW.
• More than 90% is c-...
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics
Prochain SlideShare
Chargement dans…5
×

PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics

310 vues

Publié le

The PV Manufacturing in Europe Conference organised by the European Technology and Innovation Platform for Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) took place on 18 & 19 May 2017, at the BIP House in Brussels.

Key industry leaders, scientists, engineers, and policy makers joined to debate the status and future of "PV Manufacturing in Europe". Over 120 PV specialists from 16 European countries attended the conference.

Publié dans : Environnement
  • Soyez le premier à commenter

PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics

  1. 1. PV Manufacturing in Europe Conference 19 & 19 May 2017 – BIP, Rue Royale 2-4, Brussels
  2. 2. Program • Global PV Market and Industry status • Gaëtan Masson, Becquerel Institute, ETIP PV Vice-Chairman • Solar Photovoltaics – A driver for decarbonisation and where it is manufactured • Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, European Commission JRC • Implementation Plan of the PV Temporary Working Group • Christoph Hünnekes, PV TWG Chairman • 100 % Renewables in Europe • Christian Breyer, LUT • International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) • Axel Metz, ITRPV
  3. 3. Program • Silicon Solar Cells – Current Production and Future Concepts • Martin Hermle, Fraunhofer ISE • Epitaxial Wafers: A game-changing technology on its way to mass production • Stefan Reber, Nexwafe • C3PV – From Space Solar Cells to CPV Systems • Gerhard Strobl, AZUR SPACE Solar Power • Technology Game Changers • Javier Sanz, InnoEnergy • 3sun: innovative advanced tecnology factory for pv module R(e)volution • Andrea Canino, 3SUN and Enel Green Power
  4. 4. PV Markzttan Masson, Director Becquerel Institute Global PV Markets & Industry Status Ir Gaëtan Masson Director, Becquerel Institute Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform
  5. 5. 2 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 2 BECQUEREL INSTITUTE • Research oriented Institute and consulting company for Solar PV Technologies. • Global PV Market Analysis including competitiveness and economics. • Industry analysis together with quality & reliability. • Integration into electricity systems (grids and markets). • In-house experts / Global network of experts and stakeholders • PV Market Alliance partner
  6. 6. 3 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 3 DYING UTILITIERevolution Dead technologies Dying utilities
  7. 7. 4 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 4 FROM 1.1 TO 75 GW IN 12 YEARS ? 75 GW 5% PV Market Alliance 2017 303 GW
  8. 8. 5 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 5 75 GW INSTALLED IN 2016 IEA-PVPS 2017
  9. 9. 6 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 6 FROM 2015 TO 2016 - China grew 15 to 34 GW - US grew from 7 to 14,7 GW - Japan went down from 11 to 8,6 GW - Europe went down from 8 to 6 GW - India doubled at 4 GW - RoW was stable
  10. 10. 7 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 7 QUARTERLY INSTALLATIONS 2016 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2016 - Q1 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4 GW Quarterly PV Market in 2016 Rest of the World Other Asian India Japan China Source: Becquerel Institute 2017
  11. 11. 8 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 8 PV PENETRATION IEA-PVPS 2017
  12. 12. 9 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 9 PERSPECTIVES Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016 75
  13. 13. 10 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 10 PERSPECTIVES >>> The cheapest source of electricity Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016
  14. 14. 11 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 11 MARKET DRIVERS PV market developments in … - China ? - Japan – stable or decreasing - US – uncertain after 2017 - India growing - Europe – stable or growing? - RoW: stable or growing
  15. 15. 12 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 12 TECHNOLOGIES
  16. 16. 13 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 13 TECHNOLOGIES
  17. 17. 14 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 14 COMING SOON
  18. 18. 15 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 15 COSTS AND PRICES
  19. 19. 16 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 16 ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 What about the costs ?
  20. 20. 17 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 17 PV PRICE LEARNING CURVE 0,4 USD/Wp 97% production 37% LC 20% LC 0,45 USD/WP – 275 GW Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 0,38 USD/WP – 300 GW
  21. 21. 18 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 18 4.2. THIN FILM LEARNING CURVES Source: Becquerel Institute 2016
  22. 22. 19 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 19 PRICE EVOLUTION OF PV COMPONENTS 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 PV Grade Polysilicon (9N/9N+) 156 mm Multi cSi Solar Wafer 156 mm Mono cSi Solar Wafer 156 mm Mono cSi Solar Wafer Outside China Multi cSi Cell Mono cSi Cell Multi cSi Solar Module USD/W Q3 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q4 2016 Source: Becquerel Institute 2017
  23. 23. 20 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 20 PRICE AND MARKET SITUATION - Low module prices reflect uncertainty and overcapacities. But what over the other steps of the value chain? - High demand in Q1 2017 in China could mean a growing market depending on Q3-Q4. Uncertainty again. - Time to unlock new markets if demand goes down is > 1 year. Faster this time? Non-tier-1 markets are not growing fast.
  24. 24. 21 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 21 FOOD FOR THOUGHTS
  25. 25. 22 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 22 SENSITIVITY OF LCOE 0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 Contribution to the LCOE per components in absolute value (LCOE = 0,107 EUR/kWh) Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 1 EUR/WP CAPEX 30 EUR/Wp OPEX 6% Nominal WACC 1100 kWh/kWp Yield
  26. 26. 23 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 23 TECHNOLOGY VIEW Evolution of efficiencies change the market conditions: from nov 2015
  27. 27. 24 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 24 GAME CHANGER? Evolution of efficiencies change the market conditions: thin film CdTe become more competitive while all efficiencies are improving. Source: Becquerel Institute 2017
  28. 28. 25 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 25 CONCLUSIONS Will we reach more than 75 GW ? Yes but when? China is the key market to follow. And the speed at which the market can develop. Technologies are not eternal. Leaders are also under pressure. The future is open 
  29. 29. 26 ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute 26 ENJOY THE SUN EVEN IF…
  30. 30. g.masson@becquerelinstitute.org Becquerelinstitute.org www.pvmarketalliance.com Thank you for your attention
  31. 31. Joint Research Centre the European Commission's in-house science service Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation Solar Photovoltaics – A driver for decarbonisation and where it is manufactured Arnulf Jäger-Waldau PV manufacturing in Europe Conference Brussels 19 May 2017
  32. 32. JRC’s Mission and Role Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation Vision: "To play a central role in creating, managing and making sense of the collective scientific knowledge for better EU policy."
  33. 33. The Joint Research Centre € 386 million Budget annually, plus € 62 million earned income 125 instances of support to the EU policy- maker annually 6 locations in 5 Member States: Italy, Belgium, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain 1500 core research staff, out of around 3000 total staff Over 1,400 scientific publications per year JRC 83% Of core research staff with PhD's 42 lаrge scale research facilities, more than 110 online databases More than 100 economic, bio-physical and nuclear models 30% of activities in policy preparation, 70% in implementation Focus on the priorities of the Commission (80% of activities co-designed with partner DG's) Independent of private, commercial or national interests Policy neutral: has no policy agenda of its own
  34. 34. Contents • Why Decarbonisation of Electricity • Technology Trends • PV Manufacturing • Capacity Expansion • Report on Assessment of Photovoltaics Study • Conclusions
  35. 35. Why Decarbonisation of Electricity
  36. 36. Electricity Demand Projection Data source: IEA WEO 2106 2014: ~ 23,800 TWh 2040: ~ 39,000 TWh
  37. 37. Electricity Demand in Buildings Data source: IEA WEO 2106
  38. 38. Carbon Intensity of Electricity Data source: NPS IEA WTO 2106
  39. 39. Carbon Intensity of Electricity Data source: NPS IEA WTO 2106 BUT Needed for 1.5ºC Scenario: Below 65g/kWh
  40. 40. GHG emissions of Electricity Data source: IEA WTO 2106 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2014 2040 NPS 2040 450ppm GHGemissions[Gt] total GHG total Energy Electricity 27% 42% 37% 20%
  41. 41. Technology Trends
  42. 42. PV Value Chain
  43. 43. Thin Films Commercial CdTe modules Q1/2012 (12.4%) Q1/2017 (16.7%) +34.7% Commercial CIGS modules 2010: between 7 and 11% Q1 2017: between 12 and 15.1% Commercial silicon tf modules 2010: between 5 and 8% Q1 2017: between 5 and 11%
  44. 44. Crystalline Silicon Polysilicon Siemens Process 2016: 65 –125 kWh/kg FBR 2016: 20 – 50 kWh/kg Power Output per Wafer mc : 2011 (4.02W) 2016(4.78W) +18.9% mono : 2011 (4.27W) 2016(5.01W) +17.3% Polysilicon consumption of wafers mc : 2011 (5.92g) 2016 (4.70g) – 20.6% mono : 2011 (5.71g) 2016 (4.30g) – 24.7 %
  45. 45. Crystalline Silicon Average Cell Efficiency mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2016(18.9%) +11.2% mono: 2012 (18.6%) 2016(20.9%) +12.4% Average Module Efficiency mc : 2012 (15.1%) 2016(17.5%) +15.9 % mono: 2012 (15.6%) 2016(18.3%) +17.3%
  46. 46. Crystalline Silicon New Production Technologies • Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC) • 4 and 5 busbar solar cells (4BB, 5BB) • Heterojunction Solar Cells • Bifacial Solar Cells
  47. 47. Annual PV Production 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e AnnualProduction[GW] Year Rest of World United States Malaysia Japan Europe Taiwan PR China
  48. 48. Module Price Experience Curve 0.1 1 10 100 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 PVModulePrice[USD2016/Wp] Cumulative Module Production [MW] Crystalline Silion FS CdTe Thin Film 2008 2008 2008 New technologies must enter here to be competitive 2008 2016 2008 1975 2008 1986 2014 Spot Prices
  49. 49. Module Price Experience Curve
  50. 50. Solar Cell and Thin Film manufacturing in EU and Turkey Name of Company Country of Production Cell Capacity [MW] Module Capacity [MW] Ownership Solarworld DE, USA 1070 (320) 950 (550) 29% Quatar Solar 20.85% Dr. Asbeck 50.15% free float China Sunergy CN, TR 800 (300) 900 (300) OTC traded n/a Aleo Solar DE 200 200 Sino-American Silicon Products (TW) AVANCIS (tf) DE 120 120 China National Building Materials Group Corporation (CN) Solland NL 135 135 Trina Solar (CN) 3SUN IT (tf & HJ) 160 (80) 160 (80) ENEL Green Power (IT) Solibro DE 120 120 Hanergy (CN) Calyxo (tf) DE 85 85 Solar Fields (USA) Photowatt FR 75 75 EDF Group (FR) Baltic Solar Energy LT 70 70 private Solsonica IT 40 144 GALA Group (PTC with 14.46 free float) Solarion (tf) DE 20 20 OC3 AG, a subsidiary of Turkish NUH Group (TR) Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente SL ES ? (250) ? (250) PTC n/a
  51. 51. CAPEX Development Cell & Module Manufacturing Year Capacity [MW] Country CAPEX [mil. USD] CAPEX/W [USD] 2011 1 000 USA 680 0.68 1 000 China 510 0.51 2014 1 000 USA 430 0.43 2015 1 000 China 190 0.19 2016 1 000 China 60 hardware only 0.06 2017 600 China 97 N-HJ (hardware + tf infrastructure) 0.162
  52. 52. Capacity Expansion Technology (in order of announced MWs) • PERC • "standard c-Si technology" • CdTe • CIGS • HJ • Bifacial
  53. 53. Capacity Expansion Where are the new plants build (top 5 in order of announced MWs) • India • South Korea • China • Thailand • Malaysia
  54. 54. Assessment of Photovoltaics (PV) Study 2015/RTD/SC/PP-03601-2015 • Assessment of the current situation of the PV sector in Europe and worldwide • Identification of options for a strategy to rebuild the EU PV manufacturing sector
  55. 55. Possible Strategies
  56. 56. Possible Implementation Measures
  57. 57. Conclusions • Decarbonisation of Energy sector mandatory for fullfilling the Paris Agreement • Solar is one of the pillars to achieve this decarbonisation • PV technology has made significant progress. In all technologies the progress has been greater than predicted in various roadmaps. • Further material reduction per Wp ongoing • PV cell and thin film capacity still larger than demand • Shift of PV production
  58. 58. Thank you for your attention!
  59. 59. › Implementation Plan of the PV Temporary Working Group Christoph Hünnekes, Wim Sinke, Fabio Belloni
  60. 60. Content › The SET Plan › Declaration of Intent (DoI) › TWP PV › Implementation Plan (IP) › Next Steps
  61. 61. What's the SET Plan? › Key innovation pillar of the Energy Union › Comprehensive energy R&I agenda to accelerate innovation and the energy transition › Better alignment of European and National R&I programmes thus making better use of existing resources › Integrated approach: going beyond technology silos › Setting priorities: focus on specific targets › But › The SET Plan is not a funding instrument 3
  62. 62. Energy Union and SET Plan priorities Energy Union R&I and competitiveness pillar SET Plan 10 Key Actions SET Plan Declarations of Intent / Working Groups Nº 1 in renewables Develop highly performant renewables • PV • Offshore wind • CSP • Ocean • Deep geothermal Reduce cost of key renewable technologies Smart EU energy system with consumers at the centre Create new technologies and services for energy consumers • Energy consumers • Smart cities and communities Increase the integration, security and flexibility of energy systems • Integrated and flexible energy systems Efficient energy systems Increase energy efficiency for buildings • Energy efficiency in buildings • Heating and cooling in buildings Increase energy efficiency in industry • Energy efficiency in industry Sustainable transport Become competitive in the battery sector for e-mobility and stationary storage • Batteries for e-mobility and stationary storage Strengthen market take-up of renewable fuels and bioenergy • Renewable fuels and bioenergy Carbon capture storage / use Step-up R&I activities and commercial viability of CCS/U • Carbon capture storage / use Nuclear safety Increase nuclear safety • Nuclear safety 4
  63. 63. Main SET Plan steps SET Plan 10 Key Actions: Communication Sept. 2015 Setting targets: Declarations of Intent Set-up of temporary Working Groups: R&I activities to reach the targets Implementation Plans (R&I activities, Flagships, and monitoring mechanisms) Actions mainly at national level (Joint R&I Actions or by individual countries) and at EU level only when there's a clear added value 5
  64. 64. Declaration of Intent › Targets (adaption following the discussion at the TWG PV kick-off meeting) 6
  65. 65. Declaration of Intent › Targets (adaption following the discussion at the TWG PV kick-off meeting) 7
  66. 66. Declaration of Intent 8
  67. 67. Temporary Working Group › Composition › 11 Member States representatives (Cypress, Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Turkey) › Representatives of the E.C.: › from DG RTD, DG ENER and JRC › Stakeholder from industry (10) and research (5) 9
  68. 68. Temporary Working Group › Role of SET Plan countries and stakeholders participating in the WG › Support the preparation of the Implementation Plan › Provide information on ongoing R&I activities (among which at least one Flagship) › Identify new R&I activities necessary to reach the targets › Highlighting concrete non-technological barriers/enablers experienced in their country › Seeking options for joint programming and funding in specific areas by groups of member states and private stakeholders › Sharing their experience, if any, in monitoring the targets 10
  69. 69. Temporary Working Group › SET Plan countries not participating in the WG are kept informed about the progress › Regular updates will be provided in SG meetings › Implementation Plans must be discussed and endorsed by the SG 11
  70. 70. Implementation Plan 12
  71. 71. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities to be carried out › Crucial aspect of the Plan! › Maximum 10 R&I activities to be selected › how to select the R&I activities: › bottom-up approach › first discussion at kick-off meeting, › DoI is starting point of discussion, furthermore the EU Integrated Roadmap, Solar ERA-Net guidelines, ITRPV Roadmap, … › Identification of precise non-technological barriers/enablers 13
  72. 72. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities 14 6 activities
  73. 73. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities 15 Activity Description PV for BIPV and similar applications This proposal aims at developing a market pull approach for innovative and integrated PV solutions that will allow a faster market uptake of new PV technologies and a more intensive and multi-functional use of the available surface in Europe. On the one hand, for BIPV it seems likely that thin film technologies (especially CIGS) seems to be well suited. Therefore, a combined development of thin film and BIPV is suggested. On the other hand, BIPV solutions based on other PV technologies should be developed. Sub-activities could cover bifacial applications and PV installations on roads & waterways.
  74. 74. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities 16 Activity Description Technologies for Silicon Solar Cells and Modules with higher quality Silicon wafer based PV hold by far the highest PV market share. The aim of this activity is to implement advanced laboratory technologies for high-performance silicon-based cells (≥24%) and modules in high-throughput industrial manufacturing processes, materials and equipment. This will also enable European PV industry to consolidate and expand its position. Sub-activities could cover PREX and HJT technologies as well as bifacial applications and environmental aspects.
  75. 75. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities 17 Activity Description New Technologies & Materials Crystalline silicon based solar cells are reaching their theoretical efficiency limit. The most promising approach to expand these limit are silicon based tandem technologies. The best options for top cell materials seem to be III/V semiconductors and perowskit solar cells. The aim of this activity is to raise these technologies on an economic level. Therefore the cell processing needs to be scaled on industrial level and the cost needs to be reduced. New materials and the combination of two cell technologies need new interlayer development. Also the quality needs to be enhanced in terms of less degradation. In the end the environmental impact of these new materials needs to be evaluated.
  76. 76. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities 18 Activity Description Development of PV power plants and diagnostic The aim of this activity is to develop and demonstrate business models and streamline the processes for effective operation and maintenance for residential and small commercial plants in order to keep the plant performance and availability high over the expected lifetime. Especially advanced monitoring is key, due to incompatibility and the accompanying extra costs this is often not done according to good industry practices. Manufacturing technologies (for cSi and thin film) A further reduction of costs for Silicon wafer based PV and Thin Film technologies will rely on the implementation of high- throughput industrial manufacturing processes. Advances in the field will also strengthen the European manufacturing industry. Sub-activities could cover aspects of Industry 4.0.
  77. 77. Implementation Plan › Selection of R&I activities 19 Activity Description Cross-sectoral research at lower TRL With respect to high level R&D, European research labs are still the leading institutions worldwide. A closer cooperation of these labs could help maintaining this position in order to support European industry with cutting edge research results. On a topical level activity 6 covers all the other activities selected by the TWG PV.
  78. 78. Implementation Plan › Funding › Main source: National level (e.g. Governmental funding, stakeholders’ funding, or a combination of both) › When there’s a clear EU added value: by EU sources, provided that R&I activities are commensurate with relevant policies endorsed by the EU legislative bodies and with the mandate of the EC › Joint R&I activities between SET Plan countries (with or without EU funds) should be an important dimension of the Implementation Plans According to the EC Implementation Plan template, the WG needs to specify who will implement what, with which resources, and when. This is a critical aspect. 20
  79. 79. Next Steps › Set up subgroups on each activity which work on an detailed description of activities by End of June ´17 containing › targets › monitoring mechanism › total budget required › deliverables and timeline › Implementation instruments and indicative financing contribution › July / August ´17: drafting of IP › August / September ´17: revision of the draft within the TWG PV › September ´17: draft IP provided for the SET-Plan secretariat 21
  80. 80. Bildnachweis Titelfolie: 3D-Montage: Projektträger Jülich, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Motive v.l.n.r.: PN_Photo/iStock/Thinkstock, palau83/iStock/Thinkstock, ©istockphoto.com/vithib, IvanMikhaylov/iStock/Thinkstock › Contacts › Chair Christoph Hünnekes (DE), ch.huennekes@fz-juelich.de › Co-Chair Wim Sinke (ETIP PV), sinke@ecn.nl › E.C. Fabio Belloni, fabio.belloni@ec.europa.eu
  81. 81. 100% RENEWABLES IN EUROPE Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland PV Manufacturing in Europe Conference European Technology & Innovation Platform - Photovoltaic Brussels, May 19 2017
  82. 82. 2 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Agenda  Global Scenarios / Current Status in Europe  LUT Energy System Model  100% Renewable Power Sector – Overnight  100% Renewable Power Sector – Transition  Summary
  83. 83. 3 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE We witness the start of the Solar Age Comments: • Most global energy scenarios do not yet see that reality • LUT results clearly indicate a solar century and PV as the key energy technology • Europe will follow that global trend, depite of good wind (and weak policies)
  84. 84. 4 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Global Energy Scenarios: Selected Overview source: Child M., Koskinen O., et al., 2017. Sustainability Guardrails for Energy Scenarios of the Global Energy Transition, submitted Key insights: • 100% RE: Greenpeace, WWF, Jacobson et al.: demand strongly deviates, PV and wind dominated, no hourly resolution • IEA, WEC, Shell: not COP21 compatible, high nuclear shares, low solar shares, no hourly resolution
  85. 85. 5 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Current status of the power plant mix Key insights: • new installations dominated by renewables • nuclear as niche technology for years • still some new coal capacities • overall trend very positive source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384 Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Aging of European Power Plant Infrastructure as an Opportunity to evolve towards Sustainability, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, in press
  86. 86. 6 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Agenda  Global Scenarios / Current Status in Europe  LUT Energy System Model  100% Renewable Power Sector – Overnight  100% Renewable Power Sector – Transition  Summary
  87. 87. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 7 LUT Energy System Model Full system Renewable energy sources • PV rooftop (RES, COM, IND) • PV ground-mounted • PV single-axis tracking • Wind onshore/ offshore • Hydro run-of-river • Hydro dam • Geothermal energy • CSP • Waste-to-energy • Biogas • Biomass Electricity transmission • node-internal AC transmission • interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options • Batteries • Pumped hydro storage • Adiabatic compressed air storage • Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat • Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas • Water electrolysis • Methanation • CO2 from air • Gas storage Energy Demand • Electricity • Water Desalination • Industrial Gas
  88. 88. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 8 LUT Energy System Model Key Objectives Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply • optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources, • optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and world structured into 145 sub-regions globally, • optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, • least cost energy supply for the given constraints. LUT Energy System model, key features • linear optimization model • hourly resolution • multi-node approach • flexibility and expandability • enables energy transition modeling • overnight scenarios • energy transition scenarios in 5-year steps Input data • historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind speed and hydro precipitation • available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy • synthesized power load data • non-energetic industrial gas and water desalination demand • efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants • efficiency of energy conversion processes • capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources • min and max capacity limits for all RE resources • nodes and interconnections configuration
  89. 89. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 9 LUT Energy System Model publications peer-reviewed • Examples of research with LUT energy model published in peer-reviewed journals (10 in total) Breyer et al., 2017 Gulagi et al. ,2017 Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016
  90. 90. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 10 LUT Energy System Model Data – Financial Assumptions • Capex variation based on learning curves • Least cost power plant capacities based on • Cost • Efficiency of generation and storage • Power to energy ratio of storage • Available resource • WACC is set to 7% for all years • Fuel costs • 47.3 €/MWhth for oil (~100 USD/bbl in 2020 and ~+2.1%/a) • 22.2 €/MWhth for gas (in 2020 and ~+3.0%/a) Variation in capex from 2015 – 2050 for all power plant components utilised by model. Detailed capex, fixed opex, efficiency and power to energy ratio numbers are presented at end of slide set source: Gulagi A., et al., 2017. The Demand for Storage Technologies in Energy Transition Pathways Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India, IRES, Düsseldorf
  91. 91. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 11 LUT Energy System Model Data – Financial Assumptions: PV update • capex variation based on learning curves, market growth • PV capex has been continuously too high in own work during the last 10 years • PV most important in energy transition scenarios, hence very good capex understanding required • now split into 5 types of PV segments (rooftop RES/ COM/ IND, ground-mounted fixed, tracking) source: ETIP-PV, 2017. The True Competitiveness of Solar PV – A European Case Study
  92. 92. 12 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Agenda  Global Scenarios / Current Status in Europe  LUT Energy System Model  100% Renewable Power Sector – Overnight  100% Renewable Power Sector – Transition  Summary
  93. 93. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 13 Results: Global view for Overnight 2030 source: Breyer Ch., Bogdanov D., et al., 2017. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios, Progress in Photovoltaics
  94. 94. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 14 Scenarios assumptions Generation profile (area integrated) for Europe PV generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. Wind onshore generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. Key insights: • seasonal complementary of PV and wind source: Breyer Ch., Child M., et al., 2016. A low-cost power system for Europe based on renewable electricity, European Utility Week, Barcelona, November 15-17
  95. 95. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 15 Results Regions Electricity Generation and Storage (year 2030) – area-wide open trade Key insights: • significant role of hydropower generation in Nordic countries, Austria, Switzerland, Balkan East, Turkey • solar PV represents approximately 29% of total energy generation • >50% wind share in Baltic, Germany, Benelux, Denmark, British Isles, France, Ukraine • wind has largest role in total generation across regions (48-50%) • existing PHS storage plays significant role • relative share of prosumer batteries increases in integration scenario in several regions Area-wide open trade source: Breyer Ch., Child M., et al., 2016. A low-cost power system for Europe based on renewable electricity, European Utility Week, Barcelona, November 15-17
  96. 96. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 16 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – Area-wide open trade total Key insights: • Energy Union reduces the cost by about 10% • same assumptions but without grids between the countries leads to 56.2 €/MWh • comparable cost levels across Europe source: Breyer Ch., Child M., et al., 2016. A low-cost power system for Europe based on renewable electricity, European Utility Week, Barcelona, November 15-17
  97. 97. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 17 Regions LCOE region- wide LCOE area-wide Integra- tion benefit ** Storage * Regional grid trade* Curtail- ment PV prosu- mers* PV system * Wind * Biomass * Hydro* [€/MWh] [€/MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Northeast Asia 63 56 6.0% 7% 10% 5% 16.4% 35.4% 40.9% 2.9% 11.6% Southeast Asia 67 64 9.5% 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6% India/ SAARC 72 67 5.9% 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4% Eurasia 63 53 23.2% <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4% Europe 56 51 11.2% 7% 16% 3% 18.1% 11.1% 51.7% 6.4% 14.1% MENA 61 55 10.8% <1% 10% 5% 1.8% 46.4% 48.4% 1.3% 1.1% Sub-Saharan Africa 58 55 16.2% 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2% North America 63 53 10.1% 1% 24% 4% 11.0% 19.8% 58.4% 3.7% 6.8% South America 62 55 7.8% 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1% Overview on World’s Regions: Overnight 2030 Key insights: • 100% RE is highly competitive • least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand • PV share typically around 40% (range 15-51%) • hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated • flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further decrease with heat and mobility sector integration • most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 3-24%) sources: see www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer * Integrated scenario, supply share ** annualised costs, results from older simulation
  98. 98. 18 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Cost comparison of ’cleantech’ solutions source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174 Key insights: • PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option • nuclear and coal-CCS are too expensive • nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies • 100% RE systems are highly cost competitive Preliminary NCE results clearly indicate 100% RE systems cost about 55-70 €/MWh for 2030 cost assumptions on comparable basis source: Breyer Ch., Bogdanov D., et al., 2017. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios, Progress in Photovoltaics
  99. 99. 19 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Agenda  Global Scenarios / Current Status in Europe  LUT Energy System Model  100% Renewable Power Sector – Overnight  100% Renewable Power Sector – Transition  Summary
  100. 100. 20 Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi Energy Transition Modeling: Europe Key insights: • energy system transition model for 145 regions forming 92 countries • results here are for Europe (in limits of IS, PT, TR, UA, EE, FI) • LCOE decline on energy system level driven by wind/PV + battery • beyond 2030 solar PV grows much more than wind energy • wind and PV + battery finally run the system more and more • solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 45% as least cost • capacities in 2050: solar PV of ~2000 GWp and wind of ~600 GW • LCOE of 54 €/MWh are further reduced to 46 €/MWh for 2050 cost
  101. 101. 21 Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi Energy Transition Modeling: Europe
  102. 102. 22 Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi Energy Transition Modeling: Global and Europe Key insights: • 1.0% electricity share by 2015 • Strong growth till 2030 would be possible • By 2050 solar PV could be the dominating source of electricity • Canada is still in progress for simulations • Countries in the Sun Belt would be almost fully dominated by solar PV, e.g. Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Central America • Regions of strong seasons and excellent wind show lower PV values, as well as the few hydro power and geotherrmal regions • solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 70% (!!) as least cost
  103. 103. 23 Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi Energy Transition Modeling: Global and Europe Key insights: • Total LCOE by 2050 around 50 €/MWh (incl. generation, storage, curtailment, some grid cost) • 60% ratio of primary generation cost to total LCOE • Total PV installed capacity around 22 TWp (ONLY for today’s power sector)
  104. 104. 24 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Global Internet of Energy Global Internet of Energy: http://neocarbonenergy.fi/internetofenergy/#
  105. 105. 25 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Global Internet of Energy: Europe Global Internet of Energy: http://neocarbonenergy.fi/internetofenergy/#
  106. 106. 26 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Agenda  Global Scenarios / Current Status in Europe  LUT Energy System Model  100% Renewable Power Sector – Overnight  100% Renewable Power Sector – Transition  Summary
  107. 107. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 27 Summary • Total LCOE on a European average is around 54 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (incl. generation, curtailment and storage) – further reduced to 46 €/MWh for 2050 cost • Solar PV share can reach about 45% by 2050 in electricity supply (equal to ~2000 GWp) • Battery investments enable a high solar PV share, driven by prosumers • Sector integration and Energy Union further decreases the cost • Wind energy may not grow anymore much after 2030-2040 • Seasonal variations are the key reason for keeping wind energy in the system • 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option! Personal note: • Policy failures caused the loss of almost all European manufacturing capacities for the number 1 global energy technology in this century • This unacceptable status has to be fixed, asap.
  108. 108. Thank you for your attention … … and to the team! The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14. all publications at: www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer new publications also announced via Twitter: @ChristianOnRE
  109. 109. Back-up Slides
  110. 110. 30 Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi Energy Transition Modeling: Global Key insights: • energy system transition model for 145 regions forming 92 countries • LCOE decline on energy system level driven by PV + battery • beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more comeptitve than wind energy • solar PV + battery finally runs the system more and more • solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 70% (!!) as least cost
  111. 111. 31 Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi Energy Transition Modeling: Global
  112. 112. 32 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Temporal Resolution in Global Scenarios Key insights: • no global report exists in full hourly resolution • all kinds of flexibility cannot be modelled without proper temporal resolution: • resource complementarity • supply side management • demand side management • grids • storage • sector coupling • three global energy system modeling publications had hourly resolution: two dissertations and the first article of Plessman & Breyer et al. • having no detailed global scenario in proper temporal resolution is a major failure of the energy system modeling community in discussing the climate change mitigation options source: Koskinen O. and Breyer Ch., 2016. Energy Storage in Global and Transcontinental Energy Scenarios: A Critical Review, Energy Procedia, 99, 53-63
  113. 113. 33 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 100% RE Scenarios: Country to Global Listed by Heard et al., 2017. Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems, RSER Mason et al. [9,104] 2010, 2013 J New Zealand Australian Energy Market Operator (1) [8] 2013 R Australia (NEM–only) Australian Energy Market Operator (2) [8] 2013 R Australia (NEM–only) Jacobson et al. [112] 2015 J USA Wright and Hearps [60] 2010 R Australia (total) Fthenakis et al. [133] 2009 J USA Allen et al. [27] 2013 R UK Connolly et al. [19] 2011, 2014 J Ireland Fernandes and Ferreira [119] 2014 J Portugal Krajacic et al. [20] 2011 J Portugal Esteban et al. [17] 2012 J Japan Budischak et al. [118] 2013 J USA - PJM Interconnection Elliston et al. [22] 2013 J Australia (NEM–only) Lund and Mathiesen [16] 2009 J Denmark Cosic et al. [11] 2012 J Macedonia Elliston et al. [75] 2012 J Australia (NEM–only) Jacobsen et al. [18] 2013 J USA - New York State Price Waterhouse Coopers [10] 2010 R Europe and North Africa European Renewable Energy Council [26] 2010 R EU27 ClimateWorks [116] 2014 R Australia World Wildlife Fund [108] 2011 R Global Jacobsen and Delucchi [24,25] 2011 J Global Jacobson et al. [113] 2014 J California Greenpeace (Teske et al.) [15] 2012, 2015 R,J Global
  114. 114. 34 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 100% RE Scenarios: Country to Global Missing in Heard et al., 2017: Blakers et al. 2012 J Southeast Asia & Australia Huber et al. 2015 J ASEAN Bussar et al. 2014, 2015 J EU-MENA Grossmann et al. 2014 J Americas Scholz 2012 D Europe & North Africa Rasmussen et al. 2012 J Europe ECF 2010 R Europe & North Africa Czisch 2005 D Europe, North Africa Troendle 2014 D Europe Aboumahboub 2012 D Global Matthew & Patrick 2010 R Australia Henning & Palzer 2014 J Germany ADEME 2015, 2016 R France Plessmann et al. 2014 J Global Child & Breyer 2016 J Finland Bogdanov & Breyer 2015, 2016 J Northeast Asia Gulagi et al. 2017 J Southeast Asia Barbosa et al. 2017 J South America Breyer et al. 2017 J Global Barbosa et al. 2016 J Brazil Plessmann & Blechinger 2017 J EU28 Gulagi et al. 2017 J East Asia WWF 2015 R Uganda Aghahosseini et al. 2016 C North America Aghahosseini et al. 2016 C MENA Bogdanov & Breyer 2015 C Eurasia Gulagi et al. 2016 C India/ SAARC Barasa et al. 2016 C Sub-Saharan Africa Oyewo et al. 2017 C Nigeria Caldera et al. 2016 C Saudi Arabia Aghahosseini et al. 2016 C Iran Ghorbani et al. 2017 C Iran Child et al. 2017 C Ukraine Gulagi et al. 2017 C India Lu et al. 2017 J Australia Gils & Simon 2017 J Canary Islands UBA 2010, 2013 R Germany SEI 2009 R Europe UBA 2014 R Germany, Europe Breyer et al. 2014 R Germany Teske et al. 2016 R Australia Turner et al. 2013 J Australia Moeller et al. 2014 J Berlin-Brandenburg Mathiesen et al. 2015 J Denmark Lund et al. 2011 R Denmark Child et al. 2017 J Åland Please send me more documents, in case you think one is missing: journal articles, reports, dissertations, conference papers
  115. 115. 35 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 100% RE Scenarios: Country to Global Key insights: • rather new field of research • several papers are expected to miss • good coverage in journals • not much research on global level • most major world regions are not yet covered • Europe seems to be understood best (region and country-wise) • Australia shows highest country records (10) • most countries are still ’terra incognita’ Special comments: • Jacobson et al. produce country results, but non-hourly analysis leads to respective results • Breyer et al. are currently working on 145 regions, aggregated to 92 countries in full hourly resolution and energy transition in 5- year steps for 100% RE in 2050 for power sector
  116. 116. 36 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Batteries and EVs – Very high dynamics Global EVs in use Key insights: • Batteries convert PV into flexible 24/7 technology • Batteries show same high learning rates as PV • Highly module technology – phone to storage plant • Extremely fast mobility revolution (fusion of renewables, modularity, digitalization, less complex) • high growth rates – fast cost decline • least cost mobility solution from 2025 onwards • Key reason for collapse of western oil majors • 3rd key enabling technology for survival of humankind
  117. 117. 37 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE Power-to-X – covering hydrocarbon demand Electrolysis CO2 reduction process Excess electricity H2O O2 CO2 H2 H2O CxHyOz Q Q Key insights: • PtX enables sustainable production of hydrocarbons • Ingredients: electricity, water, air • w/o PtX COP21 agreement would be wishful thinking • Profitability from 2030 onwards • Flexible seasonal storage option • Global hydrocarbon downstream infrastracture usable • Most difficult sectors to decarbonise can be managed with PtX (aviation, chemistry, agriculture, ect.) • 4th key enabling technology for survival of humankind
  118. 118. 100% Renewables in Europe Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE 38 Synfuels production in Maghreb source: Fasihi M., et al., 2017. Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe – Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World, Sustainability, 9, 306
  119. 119. Source: www.siemens.com/presse VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 1 | International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) 8th edition: Crystalline Silicon Technology ̶ Current Status and Outlook A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube PV Manufacturing in Europe Conference Brussels, May 19th 2017
  120. 120. Outline Page 2 | 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016 - Wafer - Cell - Module - Systems - Materials, Processes, Products - Materials, Processes, Products - Materials, Processes, Products 4. Summary and Outlook
  121. 121. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook Page 3 |
  122. 122. ITRPV – Methodology Working group today includes 40 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Reviewof data Preparationof publication à regional chairs Next ITRPV edition SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM Parameters in main areas are discussed à Diagrams of median values Photovoltaic Equipment Page 4 | Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US
  123. 123. Review ITRPV predictions Review ITRPV predictions Silver amount per cell 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition W afer thickness (multi) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 5 | µm ITRPV2017 ITRPV 8th Edition 2017 – some statistics Edition 8th 7th Contributors 40 33 Figures 60 50 Prediction quality since 2009: Silver consumption trend à well predicted and realized (Silver availability depends on world market) Wafer thickness trend à bad predicted and no progress (Poly-Si price depends on PV market development) silverpercell[g/cell] ITRPV2017
  124. 124. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016 - Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 6 |
  125. 125. PV learning Curve Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments 10-1 106 107 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 0.1 1 0.1 1 averagemodulesalesprice[USD2016/Wp] 100 105 106 ITRPV 2017 107 10 100 10 100 12 / 2016 101 102 103 104 105 cumulative PV module shipments [MW] historic pricedata LR 22.5 % Shipments /avg. price at years end: 2016: 75 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp o/a shipment: o/a installation: ≈ 308 GWp ≈ 300 GWp 300 GWp landmark was passed! LR 21.5% (1976 …. 2016) dramatic price drop due to market situation à Comparable to 2011/2012, but faster 2012 300GWp 2011 Page 7 | 15 March 2017
  126. 126. Price considerations Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments ITRPV2017 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 SpotPricing[USD/Wp] Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module Poly Si 26% Poly Si 12% Poly Si 24% Wafer 29% Wafer 23% Wafer 16% Cell 20% Cell 23% Cell 23% Module 25% Module 42% Module 37% share 01_2011 share 01_2016 share 01_2017 à reduction 01/2011 à 01/2016: ≈ 64 % à reduction 01/2016 à 01/2017: ≈ 36 % (reduction 01/2011à 01/2012: ≈ 40 %) Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016 à Market driven drop à Poly-Si share increased again à High pressure on module manufacturers 1.59 US$ 0.58 US$ 0.37 US$ Module price break down [US$/Wp] ITRPV 2017 0,413 0,072 0,087 0,462 0,13 0,086 0,058 0,32 0,135 0,395 0,24 0,138 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 01_2011 01_2016 01_2017 Moduleprice(US$/Wp) Module Cell Wafer Poly Si Page 8 |
  127. 127. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016 - Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook Page 9 |
  128. 128. Silicon – Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology Poly Si price trend: E 2012: 20 US$/kg ≈14 US$/kg à oversupply situation of 2016 relieved à Siemens process will remain mainstream FBR shows potential for cost reduction à FBR share will be increased moderately w/ new capacity (2016 values in line w/ IHS Markit) Other technologies (umg, epi growth, ..) à Not yet mature but available 02/ 2017: Trend: Share of poly-Si feedstock technology Silicon feedstock technology 87% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 Siemens 2019 2021 2024 2027 FBR other VDMA | Author ITRPV 22001177 Page 10 | ITRPV2017
  129. 129. Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (1) 90% 100% 110% 120% 160 140% 140 130% 120 150% Trend:throughputcrystallization/wafering Ingot mass in c2r0y1s6 tal grow20t1h7 2019 2021 2024 slurry based wire sawing diamond wire based 2027 crystal growth per tool (mc-Si, mono-like, HPM) relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] Trend: Kerf loss / TTV ITRPV2017 0 20 40 60 80 100 2016 2017 2019 Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] TTV for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] 2021 2024 Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [µm] TTV for diamond wire sawing [µm] 2027 [µm] diamond wire sawing advantage: à enable faster kerf reduction No big change in thickness variation is expected à Throughput increase in crystallization/wafering will continue ITRPV2017 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 2016 2017 2019 mc-Si 2021 mono-Si 2024 2027 [kg] Gen 6 Gen 7 Gen 8 Page 11 | 18 April 2017 2017ITRP V
  130. 130. Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (2) diamond wire wafering now mainstream for mono-Si à Throughut 2x – 3x faster than slurrybased For mc-Si change to diamond wire is ongoing à main challenge: texturing For mono-Si For mc-Si ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 slurry based 2017 2019 electroplated diamonds 2021 2024 resin bond diamonds 2027 other 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2016 slurry based 2017 2019 electroplated diamonds 2021 2024 resin bond diamonds 2027 other ITRPV2017 Page 12 |
  131. 131. Wafer – market share of wafer dimensions (new) ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 2019 2021 2024 2027 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 2019 2021 2024 2027 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² Trend: mono-Si Trend: mc-Si Fast switch to new format: à New mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm² à Larger formats are upcoming Transition to new format in 2017 à Expected new mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm² à Larger formatsmayoccur after 2020 VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 13 |
  132. 132. 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 1st 2nd 3rd 2009 4th 5th ITRPV Edition 6th 7th 8th Waferthickness [µm] 2015 2017 • Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction à 180µm = preferred thickness since 2009 • Thickness reduction is expected to start for Mono à cost reduction potential à diamond wire will support New module technologies enable further thickness reduction Wafer – Product: thickness trend 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2016 Wafer thickness multi 2017 2019 Wafer thickness mono 2021 2024 2027 limit of cell thickness in future modul technology Page 14 | 18 April 2017 [µm] Mono wafer: thickness reduction starts Trend: wafer thickness for mc-Si and mon Si wafers
  133. 133. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 100% 90% 2016 p-type mc 2017 p-type HPmc 2019 2021 p-type monolike 2024 p-type mono 2027 n-type mono ITRPV2017 Wafer – Product: market share of material types à Casted material is still dominating todaywith >60% à Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type) VDMA Page 15 | 18 April 2017 casted-Sidomination is not for ever: à Trend of last years will continue • Casting technology: à HP mc-Si will replace standardmc-Si à no “come back” of mono-like expected • Mono technology: à n-type material share will increase à n- + p-type marketshare today ≈35% (2016 values are in line w/IHS Markit) • p-type materialis expectedto stay dominant à mainly due to progress in stabilization Trend: share of c-Si material types
  134. 134. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016 - Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook Page 16 |
  135. 135. ITRPV2017 Trend for remaining silver per cell (156x156mm²) 120 20 * avg. cellefficiency 19.6 % ≈ 4.8 Wp/cell 0 2016 2017 2019 2021 Ag will stay main metallization in c-Si technology 40 60 80 100 2024 2027 Amountofsilverpercell [mg/cell] 0 100 200 300 400 2009 3rd 2015 5th 2017 7th Good prediction of Ag reduction continues Remaining Silver / Cell [mg] 2nd 4th 6th 8th Cell – Materials: Silver (Ag) per cell 2009 2016 2017 300 mg 100 mg reached 90 mg expected à Ag accounts in 2016 for ≈ 8% of cell conversion cost • Ag reduction is mandatory and continues • delays substitution by Cu or other material No break through for lead free pastes so far à Market introduction depends on performance 2016: 100mg à ≈ 21 t / GWp @ 19.6% 548 $/kg à ≈ 1.1 $cent/ Wp* Page 17 |
  136. 136. Cell – Processes: cell production tool throughputs ITRPV2017 3.000 Trends: tool througput ncrease + synchronization of frontend/backend 5.000 4.000 7.000 6.000 9.000 8.000 11.000 10.000 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 chemical processes, progessive scenario chemical processes, evolutional scenario themal processes, progressive scenario thermal processes, evolutional scenario metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario metallisation & classification processes, evolutional scenario 2027 [Wafer/h] Wet benches are leading today with > 7800 wf/h à Throughput increase continues Challenge: increase throughput + Improve OEE Two throughput scenarios: Progressive = new high throughput tools Evolutionary = continuous improvement of existing tools (debottlenecking, upgrades…) Page 18 |
  137. 137. Cell – processes: c-Si metallization technologies ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2016 screen printing 2017 2019 2021 direct plating on Si 2024 2027 plating on seed layerstencil printing ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2016 2017 sctreen printing 2019 plating 2021 2024 2027 Front side metallization technologies W orld market share [%] 90% 100% Rear side metallization technologies W orld market share [%] 90% 100% PVD (evaporation/sputtering) Screen printing remains main stream metallization technology à Plating is expected for rear and front side à For rear side PVD methods mayappear Page 19 |
  138. 138. Cell – processes: finger width / number of bus bars / bifaciality ITRPV2017 0 10 20 2016 2017 Finger width 2019 2021 2024 Alignment precision 2027 [µm] Trend: Finger width / alignment precision 30 40 50 60 Trends: market share of bifacial cells ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 monofacial c-Si 2019 2021 2024 bifacial c-Si 2027 Trends: number of bus bars (BB) ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 3 busbars 2017 2019 4 busbars 2021 2024 2027 5 busbars busbarless Front side grid finger width reduction continues 2016: < 50µm reached! à EnablesAg reduction,requires increase of number of busbars à 4BB are mainstream – 3 BB will disappear Alignmentprecision willimprove to <10µm @3 sig. à Selective emitters + Bifacial cells require good alignment à Bifacialcells will increase market share monofacial cells Page 20 |
  139. 139. Cell – processes: emitter formation for low J0frontITRPV2017 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Ohms/square ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by etch back selective emitter by ion implantation 2021 2024 2027 selective emitter by laser doping homogenous emitter by ion implantation Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies Essential parameter for J0front à 95…100 Ω/□ are standard today à Increase to 135 Ω/□ is predicted à Challenge for tools and front pastes Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion à selective doping: etch back or laser doping à Ion implant stays niche Page 21 |
  140. 140. Cell – processes: technology for low J0rear TRPV 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2016 2017 PECVD AlOx + capping layer 2019 2021 ALD AlOx + capping layer 2024 Trend: rear side passivation technologies Page 22 | 70% 80% 90% 100% 2027 PECVD SiONx Rear side passivation is mandatory for PERC à PECVDAlOx will stay mainstream à ALD will hold up to 10 % à SiONx will disappear ITRPV prediction for J0rear were good • BSF cannot deliver required low J0 • PERC takes over • competing technologiesin PERC à PECVDAl2O3 + capping à Al2O3 ALD + capping à PECVD SiONx/SiNy etc. rear 2009 2017 780 à 120 fA/cm² 2017I
  141. 141. Cell – Products: cell technologies / cell efficiency trends ITRPV2017 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% Average stabilized efficiency values for Si solar => p-type PERC outperforms 24% 25% 26% 27% 2016 2017 2019 BSF cells p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-Si PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si 2021 2024 2027 BSF cells p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-Sistabilizedcell efficiency Trend: market share of cell concepts 2016: PERC ≈15% (in line w/IHS Markit) BSF PERC other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Si-herterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandemBSF PERC/PERL/PERT ITRPV2017 IHSMarkitdata Si-tandem PERX is gaining market share (20% 2017) à BSF share is shrinking à Back contact + HJ: slow increasing share à Si tandem: under development p-type mono PERX will reach n-type performance mc-Si PERX is about to outperform mono BSF à n-type IBC + HJ for highest efficiencyapplications à stabilized >21% p-type mono PERC is in production PERX Page 23 |
  142. 142. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP – Results 2016 - Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook Page 24 |
  143. 143. Module – Materials: foils Trend: share of encapsulant materials Trend: share of back-sheet materials ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 EVA (Ethylene Vinyl Acetat) PDMS (Polydimethyl Silicone) / Silicone TPU (Thermoplastic Polyurethan) 2021 2024 Polyolefin PVB (Polyvinyl Butyral) 2027 ITRPV2017 0% 20% 10% 30% 50% 40% 60% 80% 70% 90% 100% 2016 2017 TPT (Tedlar-Polyester-Tedlar) APA (Polyamid-PET-Polyamid) KPE (Kynar (PVDF)- PET- EVA) other Page 25 | 18 April 2017 2019 2021 2024 TPA (Tedlar-PET-Polyamid) Polyolefien (PO) Glas 2027 EVAis mainstream Polyolefine will increase market share Glas will gain share as back cover material TPT will lose share on the long run
  144. 144. Module – Processes: interconnection technology ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2016 2017 lead-containing soldering 2019 2021 lead-free soldering 2024 2027 conductive adhesive ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2016 2017 2019 2021 Cu-ribbon Cu-wires structured foils Trend: cell interconnection technology Page 26 | 90% 100% 80% 90% 100% 2024 2027 shingled/overlapping cell Expanding market share: lead free soldering + conductive adhesives Cu will remain most widely used cell connection material Cu wires will increase market share Trend: cell connection material
  145. 145. Module – Products: module power outlookITRPV2017 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 2016 2017 acidic textured multi-Si 2019 2021 2024 2027 alcaline textured mono-Si ITRPV2017 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 ModulePower[Wp] Trend: cell to module power ratio (CTM) Page 27 | 104% Trend: module power of 60 cell (156x156mm²) 390 2016 2017 2019 BSF p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si 2021 2024 2027 BSF p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT p-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-Si CTM will increase to > 100% à Acidic texturing has higher CTM 60 cell modules 2017: Mono p-type PERX: 300 W are standard Multi p-type PERX: 285 W are common
  146. 146. Module – Products: framed modules and J-Boxes Trend: share of frameless c-Si modules ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 70% 70% 60% 80% 90% 100% 2019 2021 2024 2027 framed frameless ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 70% 90% 100% 2016 2017 Aluminum 2019 2021 2024 other 2027 Plastic Trend: share of smart J-Boxes ITRPV2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 standard J-Box without additional function 2021 2024 2027 microinverter (DC/AC) DC/DC converter Al-frames will stay mainstream à framelessfor niche markets Standard J-Box remains mainstream Smart J-Boxesfor niche applications Page 28 | 18 April 2017
  147. 147. Module – Products: module size TRPV 2021 2024 quarter cell 2027 full cell ITRPV2017 2016 2017 Trend: share of cell dimensions 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 half cell 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Trend: share of module size (full cell) Page 29 | 100% 2019 2021 2024 72-cell 96-cell other 2027 60-cell Full cell will remain main stream half cell implementation started! quarter cells– currently a niche Big is beautiful:72 cell module share will increase 60 cell modules à mainstream until 2020 201 7 I
  148. 148. Module – Products: module reliability (new) Trend: warranty conditions and degradation for c-Si modules Waranty requirements & degradationfor c-Si PV modules Page 39 | ITRPV2017 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 Performance waranty [years] Product waranty [years] Initial degardation after 1st year of operation [%] Degradation per year during performance waranty [%] 2027 degradation[%] warranty[years] Product warranty will remain 10 years Performance warranty 2024+: 30 years degradation: Initial / linear/year 2016: 3.0 % / 0.7% 2017: 2.5 % / 0.68% 2019+: 2.0 % / 0.68% 2021+: 2.0 % / 0.60%
  149. 149. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP – Results 2016 - Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook Page 31 |
  150. 150. Systems – Balance of system (BOS) for power plants TRPV 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 2016 2017 2019 Module Inverter Wiring 2021 Mounting 2024 Ground 2027 ITRPV2017 59% 53% 45% 43% 40% 38% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 12% 11% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2016 2017 2019 Trend: BOS in Europe and US 100% 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 6% 13% 13% 12% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 11% 100% 94% 84% 81% 77% 70% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2021 Mounting Trend:BOSinAsia Page 32 | 2024 Ground 2027 Module Inverter Wiring Still significant cost reductions foreseen Costs in Asia are assumed to be significant lower 12% 87% 12% 11% 75% 13% 11% 11% 70% 11% 64% 8% 12% 10% 10% 58% 10% 9% 55% 11% 9%7% 10% 8% 45% 8% 7% 6% 8% 36% 5% 33% 5% 2017 31% 29% I
  151. 151. Sstems – Components: system voltage /tracking 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 systems with max. system voltage of 1000V 2021 2024 2027 systems with max. system voltage of 1500V Trend: system voltage Trend: tracker systems in power plant applications TRPV 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 no tracking (fixed tild) 2019 2021 1-axis tracking 2024 2027 2-axis tracking Page 33 | 18 April 2017 1500V are the future 1-axis trackers will gain market share RPVI T 201 7 I
  152. 152. Systems – Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) Trend: LCoE progress – a minimum approach ITRPV2017 0,077 0,073 0,065 0,063 0,059 0,054 0,051 0,049 0,043 0,042 0,039 0,030 0,036 0,027 0,039 0,037 0,033 0,032 970 911,8 814,8 785,7 746,9 679 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,10 0,12 2016 1000 kWh/KWp 2017 2019 1500 kWh/kWp 2021 2024 2027 2000 kWh/kWp assumed system price Assumedsystemprice[USD/KWp] LCOE[USD/kWh] LCoE depends strongly on local conditions à ~5.7 US$ct/kWh lowest auction bidder in GER 2016** (avg.7.7 $ct) à ~2.42 US$ct/kWhpossible near Abu Dhabi* today * http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-in-deal-to-build-1.2GWp-solar-plant-in-Abu-Dhabi ** http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/danish-bidders-win-cross-border-pv-tender System prices à 2016: 970 $ / kWp à 2027: <680 $ / kWp LCoE à 2016: 3.9 ….. 8 $ct/kWh (GER avg. 7.7 $ct**) à 2027: 2.7 ….. 5 $ct/kWh are realistic • System live times of 25 years are assumed Next steps to further reduce LCoE: à extended service live to 30 years (supported by performance warranty trend) à further efficiency improvements + cost down measures Page 34 |
  153. 153. Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP – Results 2016 - Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook Page 35 |
  154. 154. Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 ] p W100 ITRPV2017 100 / 2016 D S U[c 10 10 e ri p s el sa historic price data e l LR 22.5% odu 1 LR 39.0% (2006-2016) 1 m e agr ave 0.1 0.1 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 cumulative PV module shipments [MW] VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Outlook: in detail view at PV learning curve Page 36 | 15 March 2017 103 107 0.1 0.1 averagemodulesalesprice[USD2016/Wp] LR26.2% - per piece learning 104 105 106 cumulative PV module shipments [MW] LR22.5% LR39.0% (2006-2016) Wp learning only(2010-2016) LR 6.8% - Wp learning only per piece learningonly(2010-2016) 2001603-2016: LR=39.0% 105 106 107 1 10 1 10 historicprice data ITRPV2017 1976-2016: LR=22.5% ITRPV finding 2010-2016: Wp learning ~ 7% (continually) per piece learning ~26% (market influenced) à Learning was and will alwaysbe a combination of: efficiency increase + continues cost reduction per piece = cost reduction of PV generated electricity But how will PV proceed in future? Approach: logistic growth
  155. 155. PV market trend until 2050: logistic growth ITRPV2017 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Annual Market Scenario 3 “high”: 9.2 TWp/ 14.3 PWh (< 10 % primary energy) 1.200 10.000 VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 37 | 15 March 2017 0 2045 2050 Shipments 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 AnnualMarket[GWp] GlobalInstallations[GWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Approach: 3 scenarios for 190 different countries in 4 regions Asia / America /Africa / EU ITRPV finding: - Shipments until 2016 slightly above all scenarios - Annual PV market: 335 GWp/a to 800 GWp/a à Replacement rate = key to overcome down cycles à Evolutionary technology development works for all scenarios
  156. 156. Summary VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 38 | • Silicon PV will remain a fast (evolutionary) developing technology • Further reductions of c-Si PV manufacturing cost are possible • Cell efficiency improvements will support significant LCoE reductions • Quality and reliability of components and systems are of highest importance => Silicon PV will significantly contribute to future power supply => We are just at the beginning of PV-market development
  157. 157. Thank you for your attention! Source: www.siemens.com/presse VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 39 | Contact us: jutta.trube@vdma.org Full version of 8th edition available at: www.itrpv.net
  158. 158. © Fraunhofer ISE SILICON SOLAR CELLS – CURRENT PRODUCTION AND FUTURE CONCEPTS Martin Hermle Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 19. 05. 2017 PV Manufacturing in Europe Brussels
  159. 159. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 2 PV Module Production Development by Technology It is still silicon … Production 2015 (GWp) Thin film 4.2 Multi-Si 43.9 Mono-Si 15.1 Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion from cell production). Graph: PSE AG 2016
  160. 160. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 3 SILICON SOLAR CELLS – CURRENT PRODUCTION AND FUTURE CONCEPTS  PRESENT  Current production of silicon solar cells  Evolution of cell efficiency  The pathway to highest efficiencies  FUTURE  Overcoming the limits of silicon  A new generation of silicon solar cells
  161. 161. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 4 Present Screen-printed Al-BSF Solar Cell on p-Type Silicon  Production data from Hanwha QCELLS Fabian Fertig et al “Mass Production of p-Type Cz Silicon Solar Cells ... “ 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017
  162. 162. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 5 Present Screen-printed Al-BSF Solar Cell on p-Type Silicon  Production data from Hanwha QCELLS  Efficiency limitation due to full area Al-BSF rear side  What is the next step?  Make it cheaper?  Make it better? Fabian Fertig et al “Mass Production of p-Type Cz Silicon Solar Cells ... “ 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017
  163. 163. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 6  Different BOS for different Countries  Current Module price < 0.5 $/W  Module price only a small fraction of system cost in most countries Present System Cost: BOS and Module Costs  Highly efficient solar cells reduces System Cost and the LCOE BOS2015CostUSD/kW 1500 1000 500 IRENA (2016), The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025
  164. 164. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 7 Present From Al-BSF to PERC  Replacement of the full area Al-BSF with a partial rear contact (PRC)  Two additional process steps  Dielectric passivation  Local contact opening (LCO) or Laser fired contact (LFC) SDE/Texture POCl diffusion Edge Isolation PSG etching SiN ARC SP Ag FS Drying & Firing SP Al/Ag RS Al2O3/ SiN RS Laser Opening
  165. 165. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 8 Present From Al-BSF to PERC  Q.ANTUM production data from Hanwha QCELLS  Still 0.6 %abs/year efficiency improvement  How far can we go? ?? Fabian Fertig et al “Mass Production of p-Type Cz Silicon Solar Cells ... “ 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017
  166. 166. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 9 From Present to Future Silicon Solar Cell Production: What is the Efficiency Limit?  Assuming constant “learning curve”  efficiency improvement ~0.6 %abs/year  What limits the cell efficiency and which technologies are needed in the future ? 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Averagecellconversionefficiency[%] ~ 20 % ??PERC Al-BSF
  167. 167. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 10 From Present to Future PERC – What is the Limit  Continuous increasing is possible by  Improving base lifetime > 1 ms  Smaller fingers and smaller selective emitter regions  Multi-wire Module B.Min et al , INCREMENTAL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS…, 31st EUPVSC 2015, Hamburg
  168. 168. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 11 From Present to Future PERC – What is the Limit  Continuous increasing is possible by  Improving base lifetime > 1 ms  Smaller fingers and smaller selective emitter regions  Multi-wire Module No material degradation, cleaner processes/environment Higher alignment accuracy, increased metallization costs (e.g. screens) Higher CTM losses, higher module manufacturing costs
  169. 169. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 12 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Averagecellconversionefficiency[%] From Present to Future PERC – What is the Limit  Physical Limitations  Contact recombination and lateral current flow PERC ~ 20 % PERC Al-BSF ~ 23.5 %  Passivating Contacts
  170. 170. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 13 From Present to Future Heterojunction Solar Cells  Lean process flow  Highly efficient carrier selective contacts  High Voc and low Tk  Parasitic absorption  Metallization temperature is limited from: D.Bätzner Silicon PV 2014 Texture TCO front Curing SP Ag VS i/p-a-Si i/n-a-Si TCO rear PVD Al rear Cleaning
  171. 171. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 14 From Present to Future Passivating Contacts with Oxide and Polysilicon Tunnel oxide EC EF EV n-Si Base Polycrystalline Si(n)-Layer Post, IEEE Transactions on Electron Devices (1992) F. Feldmann et al., SOLMAT 120 (2014) U. Römer, et al. IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics (2015) D. Yan Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells (2015) TOPCon Stucture
  172. 172. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 15 From Present to Future TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts Material Area Voc Jsc FF η [mV] [mA/cm2] [%] [%] n-type Mono 4 cm² (da) 725 42.5 83.3 25.7* J0e,pass � 11-15 fA/cm² J0e,metal � 200 fA/cm² TOPCon: J0,rear � 7 fA/cm² n-base p++ * confirmed by Fraunhofer ISE Callab  World record efficiency of 25.7% for both side contacted solar cells A.Richter Silicon Solar Cells with Passivating Rear Contacts 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017
  173. 173. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 16 From Present to Future TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts Material Area Voc Jsc FF η [mV] [mA/cm2] [%] [%] n-type Mono 4 cm² (da) 725 42.5 83.3 25.7* n-type Multi 4 cm² (ap) 673 40.8 79.7 21.9* * confirmed by Fraunhofer ISE Callab Photograph of the n-type HP mc solar cell  World record efficiency of 21.9% for a mc silicon solar cell J. Benick High-efficiency multicrystalline n-type silicon solar cells 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017
  174. 174. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 17 From Present to Future TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts Material Area Voc Jsc FF η [mV] [mA/cm2] [%] [%] n-type Mono 4 cm² (da) 725 42.5 83.3 25.7* n-type Multi 4 cm² (ap) 673 40.8 79.7 21.9* n-type Mono 100 cm² (ap) 713 41.4 83.1 24.5* * confirmed by Fraunhofer ISE Callab  Process scalable on lager area F.Feldmann, Evaluation of TOPCon technology on large area solar cells EUPVSEC, Amsterdam, 2017
  175. 175. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 18 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Averagecellconversionefficiency[%] From Present to Future Passivating Contacts – What is the limit  Physical Limitations  Intrinsic Auger recombination, parasitic absorption and transport losses  Back Junction Back Contact Passivating Contacts PERC ~ 20 % PERC ~ 23.5 % Al-BSF ~ 25.0 %
  176. 176. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 19 From Present to Future Back Junction Back Contact with Passivating Contacts  Kaneka (Heterojunction) 26.6 % (180 cm² ,da)*  Sunpower (Passivating contacts) 25.2 % (153 cm2 ,ta) * NATURE ENERGY 2, 17032 (2017) | DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2017.32
  177. 177. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 20 From Present to Future Back Junction Back Contact with Passivating Contacts  Physical Limitations  Intrinsic Auger recombination, imperfect light trapping and transport losses  And now ? 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Averagecellconversionefficiency[%] Passivating Contacts PERC ~ 20 % PERC ~ 23.5 % Al-BSF ~ 25.0 % ~ 26.0 % Passivating Contacts BJBC
  178. 178. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 21 Future What is the Limit of Silicon Solar Cells  Shockley, Queisser (1961) Limit for Si 33% (AM1.5)  Limitations by thermalization and transmission  Auger Limit 29.4 %1 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Transmission loss Bandgap Usable power Thermalization loss Intensity[Wm-2 nm-1 ] Wavelength [nm] 1Richter, Hermle, Glunz, IEEE J. Photovolt. (2013)
  179. 179. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 22 Future What is the Limit of Silicon Solar Cells  Shockley, Queisser (1961) Limit for Si 33% (AM1.5)  Limitations by thermalization and transmission  Auger Limit 29.4 %1 1Richter, Hermle, Glunz, IEEE J. Photovolt. (2013)  End of Silicon Solar Cell Technologies? 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Averagecellconversionefficiency[%] ~ 29 % Passivating Contacts ~ 25.0 % PERC ~ 20 % PERC ~ 23.5 % ~ 26.0 % Passivating Contacts BJBC Al-BSF
  180. 180. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 23 Future Beyond the Single Junction-Limit  Light management  Up-conversion  Down-conversion  Tandem cells with silicon as bottom cell  Perovskite top cell  III/V top cell 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 AM1.5 1. Cell 2. Cell 3. Cell (Si) Intensity[Wm-2 nm-1 ] Wavelength [nm]
  181. 181. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 24 Future Perovskite / Silicon Tandem Cells  Perovskite has a wide, tunable bandgap appropriate for a top cell  Solution processability allows potentially cheap processes  23.6 %1 achieved so far for monolithic 2 terminal devices 1K. Bush et al. Nature Energy 2, Article number: 17009 (2017)doi:10.1038/nenergy.2017.9
  182. 182. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 25 Future III/V / Silicon Tandem Si (1.12 eV) GaAs (1.42 eV) GaInP (1.88 eV)  III/V solar cells have already shown excellent efficiencies  Deposition by direct epitaxial growth or wafer bonding
  183. 183. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 26 Beyond the Limit 2-terminal GaInP/AlGaAs//Si >30% @1-Sun AM1.5g  Efficient utilization of spectrum  Efficiency = 31.3%  Near term potential above 35 % R.Cariou et al Monolithic III-V//Si Tandem Solar Cells with Efficiency > 30% Enabled by Wafer-Bonding 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017
  184. 184. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 27 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Averagecellconversionefficiency[%] Beyond the Limit Silicon Based Tandem Cells  Silicon Solar Cell Technology has still a bright future Silicon based Tandem cells Passivating Contacts ~ 25.0 % PERC ~ 20 % PERC ~ 23.5 % ~ 26.0 % Passivating Contacts BJBC Al-BSF  R&D is very important to stay on the efficiency “learning curve”
  185. 185. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 28 Conclusion  Silicon is it the working horse of Photovoltaic
  186. 186. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 29 Conclusion  Silicon is it the working horse of Photovoltaic  Conversion efficiency is the key to further bring down the levelized costs of electricity and to survive competition.
  187. 187. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 30 Conclusion  Silicon is it the working horse of Photovoltaic  Conversion efficiency is the key to further bring down the levelized costs of electricity and to survive competition.  New cell structures with high industrial potential are available
  188. 188. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 31 Conclusion  Silicon is it the working horse of Photovoltaic  Conversion efficiency is the key to further bring down the levelized costs of electricity and to survive competition.  New cell structures with high industrial potential are available  New fascinating concepts for an old technology: Crystalline silicon solar cells 2.0
  189. 189. © Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017 32 Thank you for your attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE martin.hermle@ise.fraunhofer.de
  190. 190. Epitaxial Wafers: A game-changing technology on its way to mass production ETIP-PV Manufacturing Conference Brussels, May 19th 2017
  191. 191. 2 NexWafe: producer of high-quality silicon wafers Confidential NexWafe will supply to solar cell manufacturers superior quality n-type mono-crystalline silicon wafers as a drop-in replacement for conventional wafers at competitive price
  192. 192. 3 Firm footing, strongly backed Confidential Freiburg/Br. Founded in 2015 as a spin-off of Fraunhofer ISE Series A closed in March 2016 Currently expanding pilot production for EpiWafers
  193. 193. 4 Agenda Confidential Epitaxial Wafers: A game-changing technology on its way to mass production Market needs EpiWafers – properties and advantages NexWafe’s path to mass production
  194. 194. 5 Market needs Confidential
  195. 195. 6 Market needs Confidential Source:ITRPVEighthEdition2017 efficiency gain of up to 25%rel mono wafers of “high” and “highest” quality
  196. 196. 7 The PV-industry needs disruptive approaches to cut cost Confidential Drivers for future cost reduction Module manufacturing cost Reducing wafer cost is key Minimized material consumptionHigh efficiency solar cells ?!
  197. 197. 8 Standard wafer processing: low material usage, high cost Confidential High losses limit cost reduction potential severely 1 kg Si 0.4 kg wafer Chlorosilane Poly silicon Cz Ingot pulling Cropping Squaring Grinding Wire sawing Wafer 60% loss! Severe silicon losses - High energy consumption - Capital intensive High wafer cost
  198. 198. 9 EpiWafers – smart and efficient value chain by kerfless wafering Confidential Reduced silicon consumption Dramatically less energy needed Significantly less CAPEX Very high cost cutting potential Chlorosilane Poly silicon Cz Ingot pulling Cropping Squaring Grinding Wire sawing Wafer High throughput in-line silicon deposition
  199. 199. 10 EpiWafer Confidential Drop-in replacement of conventional wafers for high efficiency cells
  200. 200. 11 re-usable Si seed wafer Epitaxially grown Si wafer Monocrystalline “EpiWafer” Detachment Kerfless Si wafer Epitaxy re-usable Si seed waferRelease layer re-usable Si seed wafer Kerfless EpiWafer process for mass production Idea: “Clone” a monocrystalline seed wafer Closed seed wafer loop and nearly no kerf allows for low production cost Wafer thickness: “standard” 180 µm or thinner – no problem to produce 80 µm thin wafers
  201. 201. 12 Full-square wafer format: Higher solar cell and module power Better control of wafer parameters: Narrower module efficiency distribution Wafer thickness down to 80 µm: Disruptive cost reduction and efficiency increase In-situ growth of pn junction: Cost savings on solar cell production Optimizing customer value by specific product advantages Confidential
  202. 202. 13 EpiWafer achievements Confidential Efficiencies > 20% and lifetimes in ms range proven C. Gemmel et al., Journal of Photovoltaics, 2016
  203. 203. 14 Challenge “mass production” Confidential Quality can be perfect… …but how can we produce billions of good EpiWafers??
  204. 204. 15 Mass production requires more than bulk lifetime! Very high throughput, modular scalable › 1000’s of wafers per hour per machine › 10.000’s of wafers per hour per factory High Yield > 95% (mechanical, electronic) High OEE > 80% (uptime, yield) Low production cost › Efficient BOM › Automation › Low CAPEX  Not achievable with batch or single-wafer processing Inline - the must-have for mass production Confidential Inline processing is a must-have to achieve low production cost
  205. 205. 16 Out of the lab into production Confidential Mass production based on a mature inline process building on 20 years of R&D work at Fraunhofer ISE 2017 5 MW production 2018 EpiWafer factory R&D at Fraunhofer ISE Production 2012 ProConCVD 5 MW production line in operation 2H 2017 Start of mass production in 2018 https://renewables.seenews.com
  206. 206. 17 Efficient and scalable 250 MW factory Confidential Two factory parts: › EpiWafer factory › Chemical plant for vent gas recycling
  207. 207. 18 NexWafe’s EpiWafers – innovation, growth and competitiveness Confidential NexWafe brings solar wafer production back to Europe Most innovative, proprietary and patented PV technology fundamentally changing the process chain and the cost of the wafer industry We ensure long-term competitiveness in Europe by creating a scalable and highly profitable business We create jobs in R&D and manufacturing in Europe
  208. 208. 19 LET’S BE AMBITIOUS! Confidential
  209. 209. 20 Acknowledgements Confidential NexWafe acknowledges funding by German Federal Ministry of Economics and Foreign Affairs and EIT InnoEnergy
  210. 210. Confidential Dr. Stefan Reber Stefan.Reber@nexwafe.com NexWafe GmbH Hans-Bunte-Str. 19 79108 Freiburg Germany Phone: +49 761 7661 186-11 www.nexwafe.com For more information, please contact:
  211. 211. C3PV From Space Solar Cell to CPV Systems Gerhard Strobl, Werner Bensch, Stephan Mayer Bruxelles, 19th May 2017
  212. 212. Agenda 1. AZUR SPACE Solar Power 2. Solar Cells for Satellites and Terrestrial CPV 3. C3PV - System and Business Model 4. Conclusion 2 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH
  213. 213. 1 –AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH Company Overview 3
  214. 214. AZUR SPACE Company History 4 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
  215. 215. 1964 1974 1988 5 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5) First silicon space solar cell in Germany First multicrystallinesilicon solar cell for terrestrial application Fabrication of high efficiency silicon solar cells (18% AM0, 20% AM1.5) 2001 2008 2012 2014 2017 First European triple GaAs space solar cell First triple GaAs space solar cell with 30% efficiency Best EOL GaAs space solar cell on the market (patented) Terrestrial CPV solar cells with 44% (500x) C3PV system (partner programme) First generation: silicon photovoltaic – mono- and multicrystalline Third generation: III-V photovoltaic & technology AZUR SPACE Technical Milestones in PV
  216. 216. AZUR (1968/69) Alphasat (2013) Hubble Telescope (1978/90) Venus Express (2005) Intelsat (1996/98) Rosetta Mission (2000) Galileo Sats (2012) Since 1964AZUR SPACE has powered 6 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5) more than 500 Satellites …
  217. 217. 2 – Solar Cells for Satellites and Terrestrial CPV
  218. 218. III/V Multijunction Solar Cells § Large wafer area (up to 150mm) § Material engineering forAs, P-based III-V semiconductors § More than 40 layers, 3 cells and 2 tunnel diodes etc. § Epitaxy on Ge Silicon η~20% (AM1.5) 8 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5) III/V triple junction η~ 35% (AM1.5) >44% (500x)
  219. 219. Terrestrial CPV Solar Cells „From Space to Earth“ Space 3G30: Large cell area, Operation at 1x AM0, Radiation hardness Terrestrial CPV 3C44: Small cells (1,3x1,3mm2 bis 10x10mm2) Operation at 500-1000x AM1.5 Humidity protection 9 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5) EFA® Enhanced Fresnel Assembly
  220. 220. Solar Cell Production Status at AZUR > AZUR‘s spacesolarcells (3G30) are the most radiation hard product in the marketand currently representourmain productline. > AZUR‘s terrestrialCPV solarcells (3C44)are in volume production. > AZUR currently has a production capacity of500 000 Wafers / year which corresponds to 500 MW (assuming CPV cellproductiononly). > On requestof a possible marketdemand,the production capacity can easily be expanded. 23.05.2017 10 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
  221. 221. 3 – C3PV - System and Business Model
  222. 222. C3PV System Interior View of the Module 30% Efficiency EFA® 3C44 Cell C3PV System 3.5kW, 10.8m2 Concept: 12 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
  223. 223. • Equipped with mostefficientsolarcells on the marketwith 44% • Module efficiencyabove30% (STC) • More competive pricethan standard PV (for regions with high direct insolation) • Compact3.5kW system with 10.8m2 module area • High localcontent C3PV-System 13 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
  224. 224. Hi-Tech in Europe 1. Fresnel Lenses 2. EFA® - „Enhanced Fresnel Assembly“ (solar cell, by-pass diode, secondary optics mounted on DCB ceramic) Low-Tech locally 1. Module and tracker production with regional creation of value by local partners 2. Know-how transfer 3. Tasks of local partners ð Production ð Marketing & Sales ð Installation ð Maintenance Hi-Tech in Europe, Low-Tech locally Supply of components from Europe 14 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
  225. 225. C3PV Production Status at AZUR > EFA® (EnhancedFresnelAssembly) productionline – 50MW > Module pilot production and demo line (blueprintand training) - 20MW 15 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
  226. 226. 4 – Summary
  227. 227. Conclusion 17 (c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5) > AZUR is world market leader in space solar cells (3G30, 4G32) and in terrestrial CPV solar cells (3C44). > AZUR wants to be a strong component supplier providing customers world-wide with solar cells (bare or assembled) as part of our core business. > As far as customers want to manufacture complete CPV systems (C3PV), AZUR can provide the know-how for local module and tracker productions within the framework of its partner programme. > CPV technology still has a significant cost reduction potential by future higher quantities in mass production and improved solar cell efficiency up to 50% (corresponding to a module efficiency above 35%).
  228. 228. Thank you for your attention ! Co-funded by the European Union
  229. 229. Technology Game Changers PV Manufacturing in Europe PV MANUFACTURING IN EUROPE CONFERENCE (ETIP-PV) Brussels, May 19th 2017 Javier Sanz, CTO Renewable Energies
  230. 230. www.innoenergy.com 2INNOENERGY Innovation Projects Education InnoEnergy Business Creation 250Project partners across Europe 77Patents filed 78Products and services supported 3Manufacturing facilities constructed 147Million euros of InnoEnergy investment 1.2Billion euros in project costs 3Billion euros in forecasted sales 162Early start-ups supported 80Companies created 33Million euros of external investment raised 1,884Business ideas captured 500Gamechangers from the InnoEnergy's Master’s School 11,200Applicants to InnoEnergy's Master’s School 93% Graduates who find a job within six months of graduating 15% Average annual salary earnings over graduates of similar programmes 140PhD students supported 35PhD graduates 8MOOCs
  231. 231. www.innoenergy.com 3INNOENERGY Making connections: the power of the network 6 co-location centres 26 shareholders 250 additional partners Activities in 17 countries
  232. 232. www.innoenergy.com 4EU CONTEXT Winter package Re-industrialization of Europe as the Goal: • Create 900.000 new jobs • Mobilize 177 B€ of investments annually • Increment the EU GDP by 1% up to 2030 By 2030: • Half the power produced must be renewable • Emissions to be reduced by 40%
  233. 233. www.innoenergy.com 5 TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARE Source IHS pC-Si mC-Si CdTe CIGS a-Si PV KEY TECHNOLOGIES * Crystalline Silicon dominates bulk market applications * Large players in the Chemical / Raw Material industry * Thin Film the “game changer” to come 0 50000 100000 150000 GLC Poly Energy (China) OCI + Tokuyama (South Korea) Wacker Chemie (Germany) Hemlock (USA) Xinte Energy (Ghina) REC (Norway) Daqo (China) China Silicon (China) SunEdison (USA) Largest Polysilicon Producers Estimated data end 2016 – Source IHS
  234. 234. www.innoenergy.com PV Value Chain Innovation Assessment DELPHOS: INNOENERGY KEY TOOL FOR ASSESSING OPPORTUNITIES 6 Link: https://delphos.innoenergy.com/welcome Framework:  Focus in Crystalline Si and Thin Film  Other emerging technologies to be assessed by other means  Timeframe: 2014-2030 Innovations affecting:  PV Plant modules  PV Plant Inverters  BoS Structures  Bos Electrical  Development, Installation and Construction  Operation, Maintenance and Service Impact analysis on:  Cost  Gross AEP
  235. 235. www.innoenergy.com 7LCOE METHODOLOGY TO DRIVE PV MANUFACTURING INNOVATION How the innovations impact the LCOE How the revised parameters affect LCOE +
  236. 236. www.innoenergy.com 8INNOVATIONS IN c-Si PV CELL MANUFACTURING TOKYO ©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
  237. 237. www.innoenergy.com 9INNOVATIONS IN c-Si PV MODULE MANUFACTURING TOKYO ©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
  238. 238. www.innoenergy.com 10INNOVATIONS IN THIN FILM PV CELL & MODULE MANUFACTURING TOKYO ©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
  239. 239. www.innoenergy.com 11INNOVATIONS IN INVERTER MANUFACTURING TOKYO ©Nalilord, 2011. CC 3.0
  240. 240. www.innoenergy.com 12INNOVATIONS IN c-Si and TF LEADING MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES
  241. 241. www.innoenergy.com 13IS IT POSSIBLE FOR PV TO BE THE ULTIMATE GAME CHANGER? 0 €/MWh 50 €/MWh 100 €/MWh 150 €/MWh 200 €/MWh 250 €/MWh Conv c-Si Ground HighEff c-Si Ground TF Ground Conv c-Si Roof HighEff c-Si Roof TF Roof '15 '20 '30 '15 Household grid price Eurostat '15 Avg. Platts PEP
  242. 242. www.innoenergy.com 14INNOENERGY PROJECTS AND VENTURES POWCELL FASCOM Epicomm EnThiPV EFFIC BIPV-Insight Innovation Projects & Commercializing Entities Ventures http://beonenergy.co m/ http://www.compactsolar.nl http://www.ecoligo.comhttp://endef.comhttp://www.epcsolaire.fr/http://www.gramma-gam.com/http://www.helioslite.com http://www.nnergix.com http://www.nanotechnologysolar.comhttp://www.rvesol.com/http://www.solangel-energy.comhttp://www.solarenergybooster.nlhttp://www.solardynamik.eu http://www.solarisoffgrid.com https://www.solelia.se/en/ http://www.steady-sun.comhttp://www.swedishalgaefactory.comhttp://www.tandemsun.com/http://textilenergy.com/
  243. 243. www.innoenergy.com InnoEnergy is supported by the EIT, a body of the European Union Javier Sanz – CTO Renewable Energies javier.sanz@innoenergy.com +34 935 572 342
  244. 244. 3SUN: Innovative Advanced Technology Factory for PV Module R(e)volution A. Canino 3SUN May 19°, 2017
  245. 245. Outline 2 • EGP positioning and key figures • Modules cost reduction • Enel Green Power Core Business • Business model • 3SUN Strategic Decision in 2015 • Innovative and Reliable Technology • Industry 4.0
  246. 246. EGP positioning and key figures 3 Key figures Capacity1 (GW) Production (TWh) Key financials (€bn) EBITDA Opex Maintenance capex Growth capex1 Old perimeter 10.9 Old perimeter 37.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 2.7 24.8 Large hydro 55.0 2.2 Large hydro 0.6 0.2 0.1Countries of interestCountries of presence Net installed capacity1 (GW) 6.4 1.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 24.8 2016 2016 35.7 92.4 4.2 1.4 0.4 2.8 1. Old perimeter capacity and growth capex not including USA projects managed through BSO model (Build Sell and Operate) Geo Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Large hydro
  247. 247. The outlook for renewables 4 Decoupling between installations and investments Solar costs down 90% since 2009 Performance improvement coupled with repowering opportunity Cost of lithium-ion cells have plunged from $1,000/kWh in 2007 to $300/kWh now Commercial, financial and risk management skills remain key factors to win in a fast changing market Pervasive and unstoppable. Leading the change is key to support marginality Storage Investments Wind Private sector Solar Innovation
  248. 248. Costs ITRPV 2017 5 Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016 à Market driven à Poly-Si share increased à High pressure on manufacturers01/2011 à 01/2016 ~64% 01/2016 à 01/2017 ~36%
  249. 249. Global Solar Demand in 2017 IHS 2017 • 79 GW of global installations with upside potential of 85 GW. • More than 90% is c-Si or mc-Si • China maintains its position as the largest end market*. • Lower system costs support demand growth in new regions and emerging markets 6 2017 (*) Finalglobal demand numbers willbe heavily influenced by policy evolution in China in the second half of the year

×