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Balancing tradeoffs:
Reconciling multiple environmental
goals in an agricultural Amazonia
ESA 2014
 12 August 2014
Christi...
There is no one
Amazon Ecology 1
Human use Is rapid
And changing 2
Land use impacts vary both across
space and among the ecosystem
services being considered
Q
Can explicit consideration
of tradeoffs help achieve
multiple objectives from
land use?
We combined data from remote
sensing, model output, and
geostatistical datasets to assess
spatial variation in services
We combined data from remote
sensing, model output, and
geostatistical datasets to assess
spatial variation in services
• ...
We combined data from remote
sensing, model output, and
geostatistical datasets to assess
spatial variation in services
• ...
C stock
reductions
relate to
precipitation,
landscape
degradation,
and soils
Net aboveground
biomass and mineral
soil C lo...
Local
atmospheric
drying after
land use
change is
greater in the
strongly
seasonal east
Reduction in exported
moisture per...
…and local
warming is
higher in the
same area
Increase in local
atmospheric
temperature (annual
average)
Plants, birds
and mammals
all have the
highest relative
species
diversity in the
Andes Amazon
Number of species
ranges rep...
Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses
Calories gained / change
in ecosystem property
Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses
Calories gained / change
in ecosystem property
Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses
Calories gained / change
in ecosystem property
Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
The location of future agricultural
expansion will largely dictate the impacts of
land use on ecosystem services.
Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands
at least harm to the environment

Carbon storage
priority level

Carbon storage 

 ...
Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands
at least harm to the environment

Carbon storage
priority level

Carbon storage 

 ...
Carbon
storage
priority
changes





Habitat
quality
priority
changes





Regional
climate
priority
changes
Tg C Effects ...
Explicit strategizing is critical in large, dynamic
ecosystems with potential conflicts between goals.

A “portfolio” land...
Muito Obrigada
Photo credits
Flickr CC Users
CIFOR
Billtacular
Jacsonquerubin
flinner!
Carine06
LeoFFreitas
terrydu
ggalli...
•  V is the synthetic value placed on a parcel of land
remaining in natural vegetation
•  wk is the weight, or human prefe...
We are limited by
ideas, not by tools
- Peter Groffman
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Balancing Tradeoffs: Reconciling multiple environmental goals in an agricultural Amazonia

ESA 2014 conference presentation

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Balancing Tradeoffs: Reconciling multiple environmental goals in an agricultural Amazonia

  1. 1. Balancing tradeoffs: Reconciling multiple environmental goals in an agricultural Amazonia ESA 2014 12 August 2014 Christine S. O’Connell, Kimberly M. Carlson, Santiago Cuadra, Kenneth J. Feeley, Paul C. West, Stephen Polasky, Jonathan A. Foley
  2. 2. There is no one Amazon Ecology 1
  3. 3. Human use Is rapid And changing 2
  4. 4. Land use impacts vary both across space and among the ecosystem services being considered
  5. 5. Q Can explicit consideration of tradeoffs help achieve multiple objectives from land use?
  6. 6. We combined data from remote sensing, model output, and geostatistical datasets to assess spatial variation in services
  7. 7. We combined data from remote sensing, model output, and geostatistical datasets to assess spatial variation in services •  Changes in carbon (C) stocks •  Energy balance regulation •  Habitat quality
  8. 8. We combined data from remote sensing, model output, and geostatistical datasets to assess spatial variation in services •  Changes in carbon (C) stocks •  Energy balance regulation •  Habitat quality And compared those impacts to agricultural gains from expansion
  9. 9. C stock reductions relate to precipitation, landscape degradation, and soils Net aboveground biomass and mineral soil C lost after land use change
  10. 10. Local atmospheric drying after land use change is greater in the strongly seasonal east Reduction in exported moisture per day (via evapotranspiration)
  11. 11. …and local warming is higher in the same area Increase in local atmospheric temperature (annual average)
  12. 12. Plants, birds and mammals all have the highest relative species diversity in the Andes Amazon Number of species ranges represented in each grid cell
  13. 13. Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses Calories gained / change in ecosystem property
  14. 14. Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses Calories gained / change in ecosystem property
  15. 15. Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses Calories gained / change in ecosystem property
  16. 16. Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
  17. 17. Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
  18. 18. Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
  19. 19. The location of future agricultural expansion will largely dictate the impacts of land use on ecosystem services.
  20. 20. Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands at least harm to the environment Carbon storage priority level Carbon storage priority level Carbon storage priority level TgCEmitted SpeciesRangesAffected RegionalClimateIndex We ran an algorithm that expands agriculture at the least combined “harm,” while changing the priority between C, energy balance and habitat
  21. 21. Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands at least harm to the environment Carbon storage priority level Carbon storage priority level Carbon storage priority level TgCEmitted SpeciesRangesAffected RegionalClimateIndex We ran an algorithm that expands agriculture at the least combined “harm,” while changing the priority between C, energy balance and habitat
  22. 22. Carbon storage priority changes Habitat quality priority changes Regional climate priority changes Tg C Effects Habitat Effects Reg. Clim. Effects
  23. 23. Explicit strategizing is critical in large, dynamic ecosystems with potential conflicts between goals. A “portfolio” land conservation strategy that strategically targets different regions of Amazonia to achieve different environmental outcomes could be a way forward.
  24. 24. Muito Obrigada Photo credits Flickr CC Users CIFOR Billtacular Jacsonquerubin flinner! Carine06 LeoFFreitas terrydu ggallice Icelight MODIS images via NASA Thanks to The Foley, Polasky, Powers and Hobbie lab groups Supporting agencies, institutions and collaborators below Christine S. O’Connell, coconn@umn.edu, UMN EEB/IonE
  25. 25. •  V is the synthetic value placed on a parcel of land remaining in natural vegetation •  wk is the weight, or human preference, given to each ecosystem property •  Dkij is the delivery of the ecosystem property •  k is an index for each ecosystem property being incorporated into V, and ij points to the grid cell •  The relative weight between those factors was varied across each simulation systematically in 5% increments (w1=1.0, 0, 0, w2=0.95, 0.5, 0, …) for an n=441
  26. 26. We are limited by ideas, not by tools - Peter Groffman

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