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The Impact of Disasters
is Increasing

Every day, the growth of urban populations drives exposure to natural hazards ever
higher. Unplanned urban expansion, coupled with poor resource management,
destroys natural ecosystems, such as mangroves, wetlands, and forests, that have
                                                                                                                                                                         russia




                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010
protected communities for generations.                                                                                                                                   For e st Fi r e
                                                                                                            earthquake




                                                                                                                                 2010
Climate change is exacerbating the danger. Today’s once-in-20-years extreme                                 HAITI                                                        0.1%
                                                                                                                                                                         53 Dead
                                                                                                                                                                                   GDP        $1.8
                                                                                                                                                                                            billion

                                                                                                            120% GDP           $7.8
temperatures are expected to occur annually by the century’s end, according to                              230,000 Dead Billion
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
                                                                                                                                                                                FLOOD




                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010
                                                                                                                                                                                Pa ki s t a n
It is the poor and vulnerable – women, children, the elderly, marginalized groups,                                                                                                 5.8%      GDP    $10.1
                                                                                                                                             drought




                                                                                                                                                                 08-10
                                                                                                                                                                                   1,985 Dead      billion
and those recovering from conflict – who often are most exposed to the dangers.
                                                                                                                                             Horn of Africa
When disasters strike, their homes in fragile and often low-lying environments often                                                                                                                                    earthquake




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        & tsunami
take the brunt of the storms, and their lives feel the greatest pressure when droughts
send food prices soaring. The damage exacerbates existing social and economic
                                                                                                                                                   13.3
                                                                                                                                                   MILLION                                                              JAPAN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4% GDP          $210
inequity, which can further marginalize people and stoke civil unrest and conflict.                                                               facing food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20,000 Dead billion
                                                                                                                                                                                FLOOD
                                                                                                                                                 shortages
                                                                                               hurricane




                                                                                                                                                                                                      2011
                                                                                                                        2005
                                                                                               United States                                                                    Thailand
                                                                                               1.0% GDP         $125                                                              $45   13% GDP
                                                                                                              billion



           Disasters
                                                                                               1,833 Dead                                                                       Billion 813 Dead

                                                 but they impact the                                                                                                                                          tsunami




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005
                                                 poor and vulnerable                                                                                                                                          Indonesia
           affect everyone                                                                                                                                      FLOOD




                                                                                                                                                                                     2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1%    GDP        $4.5
                                                 the most.                                                                                                                                                    165,000 Dead   billion
                                                                                                             earthquake                                         Mozambique




                                                                                                                                      2010
                                                                                                             & tsunami                                          10%       GDP     $0.4


                                                                                                             CHILE
                                                                                                                                                                800 Dead        billion



                                                                                                             14%     GDP         $30
     400                                                               $380                                  562 Dead          billion
                                                                       BILLION
                                                                       COSTLIEST YEAR
     350                                                               ON RECORD



     300
                                                                                                            Low-income countries
                                                                                                            ACCOUNT FOR only
     250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   48%
     200                                                                                                                                                                                                             of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   fatalities.

     150


     100
                                                                                                                                 9%           of the world’s disasters, but



     50                                                                                                     1980                             2.3 million people killed by disasters                                                              2011
     bn US$



     1980                          $3.5 TRILLION                                        2011
                                   IN ECONOMIC LOSSES

 1                                                                                             FACT                In low-income and small island states, the
                                                                                                                   impact of natural disasters can exceed an equivalent of                                    GDP.                                  2
Understanding Risk
is Essential



                                                                1/2                             Mainstreaming disaster risk management in
                                                  of the world’s population lives in cities.
                                                                                                development planning can reverse the current
                                                                                                trend of rising disaster impact.
                                                 By

                                                 2050,




                                                                                                                                                                                              INSTITUTIONAL, POLITICAL, NORMATIVE, FINANCIAL CONTEXT
                                                 THE URBAN POPULATION EXPOSED                                                           Risk Identification
                                                 TO STORMS AND EARTHQUAKES
                                                 ALONE COULD MORE THAN DOUBLE TO                                                        Risk assessments (community-based, probabilistic
                                                                                                                                        modeling); risk mapping; information campaigns;
                                                 1.5 BILLION.                                                                           public outreach; etc.

                                                                                                                                        Risk Reduction
No country can fully insulate itself from disaster risk, but every country can reduce its
                                                                                                                                        Structural and non-structural measures; land use
vulnerability. Success depends heavily on how well cities are managed. City planners play                                               planning; policies and regulation; infrastructure
important roles through risk-based territorial planning, enforcement of building codes,                                                 retrofitting; etc.
early warning systems, and emergency response plans. Governments and donors can help            Disaster Risk
cities build this capacity and the knowledge for managing risks.                                Management                              Preparedness
                                                                                                is a combination of
Anticipating the hazards and assessing the vulnerabilities of populations and infrastructure                                            Civil protection systems; pre-positioning emergency
is at the core of disaster risk management. Disaster prevention, climate change adaptation,                                             response equipment; early warning systems;
                                                                                                                                        contingency planning; etc.
and the importance of inclusive green growth are becoming ever more intertwined.
By understanding the risks, leaders and individuals can make informed decisions and
set priorities for development.                                                                                                         Financial Protection
                                                                                                                                        Assessing and reducing contingent liabilities;
                                                                                                                                        budget appropriation and execution; ex-ante and
                                                                                                                                        ex-post financing instruments; etc.
                                                           Weather-related
                                                           disasters                                                                    Resilient Reconstruction
                           78.4%                          ACCOUNT FOR US $2.6 TRILLION OF THE
                                                          US $3.5 TRILLION ECONOMIC LOSSES                                              Resilient recovery and reconstruction policies;
                           weather related                RECORDED BETWEEN 1980 AND 2011.                                               ex-ante design of institutional response
                                                                                                                                        mechanisms; etc.
                                                              US $2.6 trillion
OF THE 22,200 EXTREME EVENTS RECORDED
BETWEEN 1980 AND 2011, 17,400 WERE
CAUSED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.

                                                                    US $3.5 trillion
 3                                                                                              FACT     The cumulative economic impact of low-intensity, high-frequency events
                                                                                                         is often greater than the total impact of high-impact, low-frequency events.                                          4
Action Must Go
Beyond Response
Too often, international financing has been dominated by disaster response after the
damage is done rather than prevention and preparedness. Between 1980 and 2009,
US$ 91.2 billion in international aid went to disaster-related activities; just US $3.3             International Disaster Financing
billion of that was for prevention and preparedness. The rest included US $63.7 billion
for emergency response, US $22.6 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation, and US
$1.5 billion for a combination of purposes.                                                                                                                             3.6%
                                                                                                                                                                        Disaster Prevention
How donors channel aid matters. Financing dedicated to mainstreaming disaster risk
                                                                                                                                                                        and Preparedness
management can enhance overall development effectiveness and help prevent
humanitarian assistance growing year on year at
a time when donor financing is stretched.                                                                                                                               24.8%
Development assistance, both technical
and financial, can supply seed funding for
                                                              2%                                                                                                        Reconstruction
                                                                         US $91.2         billion                                                                       and rehabilitation
national programs, grant technical support
to key risk-related areas, and give momentum
to comprehensive risk management.
                                                                                                                                                                        69.9%
Natural hazards need not turn into disasters.        Between                                                                                                            Emergency Response
By investing in disaster risk management
rather than merely responding to disasters,
                                                     1980 and 2009
we can save lives, property, and the                 ABOUT 2% OF TOTAL
expense of rebuilding.                               DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
                                                     was allocated to disaster-related                 2015 presents an opportunity to make disaster risk management a
                                                     activities. Of this, the smallest                 development priority: The Millennium Development Goals and the
                                                     share went to disaster prevention.                Hyogo Framework for Action reach their target dates that year, a new
                                                                                                       climate change treaty is anticipated, and the Sustainable Development
                                                                                                       Goals proposed at Rio+20 are due by 2015.
We need a




                                                                                                                                                                                                RESILIENCE
CULTURE OF
                                                                                                        Millennium Development Goals

                                                                                                        Hyogo Framework for Action

                                                                                                        Sustainable Development Goals
                                                                                                                                                                                   2015


PREVENTION
                                                                                                        International Climate Change Negotiations




 5                                                                                                   FACT      The Hyogo Framework for Action brings 168 international stakeholders together to
                                                                                                               reduce disaster risk. Japan will host the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2015.     6
MANAGING
The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and
Recovery (GFDRR) is a multi-donor partnership
and financing mechanism to mainstream disaster



                                                     DISASTER
and climate risk management into development
strategies and planning. Housed within the World
Bank, GFDRR also acts as Bank's focal point for



                                                     RISKS
strategic oversight, partnership building, and
business development in disaster risk management.




                                                     for a Resilient Future




                           THE GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN


                                                                              THE WORLD BANK



                           THE WORLD BANK

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World Bank Presentation: Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future

  • 1. The Impact of Disasters is Increasing Every day, the growth of urban populations drives exposure to natural hazards ever higher. Unplanned urban expansion, coupled with poor resource management, destroys natural ecosystems, such as mangroves, wetlands, and forests, that have russia 2010 protected communities for generations. For e st Fi r e earthquake 2010 Climate change is exacerbating the danger. Today’s once-in-20-years extreme HAITI 0.1% 53 Dead GDP $1.8 billion 120% GDP $7.8 temperatures are expected to occur annually by the century’s end, according to 230,000 Dead Billion the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. FLOOD 2010 Pa ki s t a n It is the poor and vulnerable – women, children, the elderly, marginalized groups, 5.8% GDP $10.1 drought 08-10 1,985 Dead billion and those recovering from conflict – who often are most exposed to the dangers. Horn of Africa When disasters strike, their homes in fragile and often low-lying environments often earthquake 2011 & tsunami take the brunt of the storms, and their lives feel the greatest pressure when droughts send food prices soaring. The damage exacerbates existing social and economic 13.3 MILLION JAPAN 4% GDP $210 inequity, which can further marginalize people and stoke civil unrest and conflict. facing food 20,000 Dead billion FLOOD shortages hurricane 2011 2005 United States Thailand 1.0% GDP $125 $45 13% GDP billion Disasters 1,833 Dead Billion 813 Dead but they impact the tsunami 2005 poor and vulnerable Indonesia affect everyone FLOOD 2000 1% GDP $4.5 the most. 165,000 Dead billion earthquake Mozambique 2010 & tsunami 10% GDP $0.4 CHILE 800 Dead billion 14% GDP $30 400 $380 562 Dead billion BILLION COSTLIEST YEAR 350 ON RECORD 300 Low-income countries ACCOUNT FOR only 250 48% 200 of the fatalities. 150 100 9% of the world’s disasters, but 50 1980 2.3 million people killed by disasters 2011 bn US$ 1980 $3.5 TRILLION 2011 IN ECONOMIC LOSSES 1 FACT In low-income and small island states, the impact of natural disasters can exceed an equivalent of GDP. 2
  • 2. Understanding Risk is Essential 1/2 Mainstreaming disaster risk management in of the world’s population lives in cities. development planning can reverse the current trend of rising disaster impact. By 2050, INSTITUTIONAL, POLITICAL, NORMATIVE, FINANCIAL CONTEXT THE URBAN POPULATION EXPOSED Risk Identification TO STORMS AND EARTHQUAKES ALONE COULD MORE THAN DOUBLE TO Risk assessments (community-based, probabilistic modeling); risk mapping; information campaigns; 1.5 BILLION. public outreach; etc. Risk Reduction No country can fully insulate itself from disaster risk, but every country can reduce its Structural and non-structural measures; land use vulnerability. Success depends heavily on how well cities are managed. City planners play planning; policies and regulation; infrastructure important roles through risk-based territorial planning, enforcement of building codes, retrofitting; etc. early warning systems, and emergency response plans. Governments and donors can help Disaster Risk cities build this capacity and the knowledge for managing risks. Management Preparedness is a combination of Anticipating the hazards and assessing the vulnerabilities of populations and infrastructure Civil protection systems; pre-positioning emergency is at the core of disaster risk management. Disaster prevention, climate change adaptation, response equipment; early warning systems; contingency planning; etc. and the importance of inclusive green growth are becoming ever more intertwined. By understanding the risks, leaders and individuals can make informed decisions and set priorities for development. Financial Protection Assessing and reducing contingent liabilities; budget appropriation and execution; ex-ante and ex-post financing instruments; etc. Weather-related disasters Resilient Reconstruction 78.4% ACCOUNT FOR US $2.6 TRILLION OF THE US $3.5 TRILLION ECONOMIC LOSSES Resilient recovery and reconstruction policies; weather related RECORDED BETWEEN 1980 AND 2011. ex-ante design of institutional response mechanisms; etc. US $2.6 trillion OF THE 22,200 EXTREME EVENTS RECORDED BETWEEN 1980 AND 2011, 17,400 WERE CAUSED BY WEATHER EXTREMES. US $3.5 trillion 3 FACT The cumulative economic impact of low-intensity, high-frequency events is often greater than the total impact of high-impact, low-frequency events. 4
  • 3. Action Must Go Beyond Response Too often, international financing has been dominated by disaster response after the damage is done rather than prevention and preparedness. Between 1980 and 2009, US$ 91.2 billion in international aid went to disaster-related activities; just US $3.3 International Disaster Financing billion of that was for prevention and preparedness. The rest included US $63.7 billion for emergency response, US $22.6 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation, and US $1.5 billion for a combination of purposes. 3.6% Disaster Prevention How donors channel aid matters. Financing dedicated to mainstreaming disaster risk and Preparedness management can enhance overall development effectiveness and help prevent humanitarian assistance growing year on year at a time when donor financing is stretched. 24.8% Development assistance, both technical and financial, can supply seed funding for 2% Reconstruction US $91.2 billion and rehabilitation national programs, grant technical support to key risk-related areas, and give momentum to comprehensive risk management. 69.9% Natural hazards need not turn into disasters. Between Emergency Response By investing in disaster risk management rather than merely responding to disasters, 1980 and 2009 we can save lives, property, and the ABOUT 2% OF TOTAL expense of rebuilding. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE was allocated to disaster-related 2015 presents an opportunity to make disaster risk management a activities. Of this, the smallest development priority: The Millennium Development Goals and the share went to disaster prevention. Hyogo Framework for Action reach their target dates that year, a new climate change treaty is anticipated, and the Sustainable Development Goals proposed at Rio+20 are due by 2015. We need a RESILIENCE CULTURE OF Millennium Development Goals Hyogo Framework for Action Sustainable Development Goals 2015 PREVENTION International Climate Change Negotiations 5 FACT The Hyogo Framework for Action brings 168 international stakeholders together to reduce disaster risk. Japan will host the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2015. 6
  • 4. MANAGING The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a multi-donor partnership and financing mechanism to mainstream disaster DISASTER and climate risk management into development strategies and planning. Housed within the World Bank, GFDRR also acts as Bank's focal point for RISKS strategic oversight, partnership building, and business development in disaster risk management. for a Resilient Future THE GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN THE WORLD BANK THE WORLD BANK