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IAB Digital Morning 2015 - Mobile: ontem, hoje e amanhã - Felipe Mendes (Gfk)

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IAB Digital Morning 2015 - Mobile: ontem, hoje e amanhã - Felipe Mendes (Gfk)

  2. 2. 2 MOBILE: THEN, NOW AND BEYOND GfK Digital Market Intelligence
  3. 3. 3 Think Mobile First!
  4. 4. 4 Please, tell me something new?...
  5. 5. 5 Transformation in mobile eco-system Global mobile ad revenue: US $4.5bn in 2016, +400% from 2011 Mobile is now the primary means of going online for half of all mobile web users. Two smartphones for every PC by 2016 Global mobile transactions US $617bn in 2016 4.3bn mobile users in 2012 vs. 5.2bn mobile users in 2017 Sources: Cisco, IDC, Forester, Gartner, InMobi, Foresee/Mobify, GfK
  6. 6. 6 Mobile frees up people time to do what they need to do (other activities while reading news content on mobile devices) Eat 44% Commute 42% Watch TV 36% Work 33% Use laptop 30% Music/ radio 29% Talk 21% Use tablet 18% Study 9% Read papers/magazines 9% Cook 8% Shop 6% Source: GfK m-sites product research Australia 2013 NEWS
  7. 7. 7 THEN: Smartphones chosen as the “ideal” device
  8. 8. 8 We initially thought that Mobile would mean Tablets Source: GfK; Retail Channels/Consumer Demand; Computer & Media Tablets; 2007 to 2013 under 7 inch tablets has grown market share within the PC&tablets from 29% to 46% in 2013 while average price has fallen 62% from 630€ to 243€ in the last thtree years suffered the biggest loss of 12% in market share in 2013 while the average price has dropped 21% from 612 € to 486€ in the last three years 13-17 inch laptops
  9. 9. 9 Until Q4’2014, when global Tablet shipments stalled...
  10. 10. 10 Combined smartphone and tablet share of spending continues to rise, but at a much lower pace for Tablets 100% Coverage incl. North+Middle America – GfK Trends and Forecasting 2015 forecast 2012 2013 2014 2015 forecast 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Millions of units Smartphones Tablets
  11. 11. 11 Tablets are being eclipsed by Phablets GfK Trends and Forecasting, total market including 2015 estimation Phablet definition is a smartphone of screen size ranging from 5.6”-7” 250 200 150 100 50 0 Millions of units Tablets Phablets 2013 2014 2015 forecast
  12. 12. 12 2 main reasons... As always in Tech... User experience Costs 1 2
  13. 13. 13 2012 2015 Lower-priced smartphones growing faster... The low-end smartphone price band is growing at the expense of the high end Charts contain actual sell-out data until 2014 for Global GfK covered countries 31% 3% 21% 21% High-end smartphones ($500+) ($0-100) Low-end smartphones
  14. 14. 14 Source: GfK; Global retail sales data Tablet screen sizes were down… while video consumption was booming… January 2010 – December 2013 (sales units %) 0 50 100 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 Display size: 7<8 Display size: 8<9 Display size 9<10 Display size >10 Global Europe Mid East/Africa SE AsiaPac Greater China India South America
  15. 15. 15 Smartphones became more and more Phablets... GfK point of sales data (not including the US), sales units % 2H15: 277m units sold 2H11: 4m units sold Screen size less than 3” Screen size greater than 4” Screen size between 3” and 4”
  16. 16. 16 As a result, global smartphone screen average is 4.7 inches Panel Market global key markets ex- NA, Sales units % 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 Averagescreensize(byregion) Global ex-NA W. Europe China Developed Asia Emerging Regions ex-China
  17. 17. 17 Make/Receive Calls Send/Receive Photos Access the Internet Listen Music or Radio Send/Receive SMS Messages 93%Make/Receive Calls 51%Send/Receive Photos 87%Send/Receive SMS Messages 45%Listen to Music/Radio 57%Access the Internet We can say that smartphones are “also” used to make calls Source: 2013 Roper Reports® Worldwide – Consumer behavior and attitudes in 31 markets
  18. 18. 18 Number of interactions with smartphone per day Smartphones are a natural extension of us Today‘s smartphone user… Source: GfK Crossmedia Link (MEP) June 2014; Multi-Screener Sample. (= Measurement of internet usage on desktop and smartphone). …unlocks his smartphone 33 times a day …uses a monthly of 37 distinct Apps …visits 59 different websites per month …spends 244 minutes with gaming on the phone per month
  19. 19. 19 From 2 billion "core Internet devices“ sold in 2014, 2/3 were smartphones Global sales [million units] Source: GfK Retail Panel 7 18 37 62 80 104118 128 136 130 116 109155 185 206 195 177 16917 61 130 228 326 139 267 441 685 1,010 1,264 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC TV Desc PC/All in one Notebooks/Netbook Tablets Smart phones 1,972 419 615 881 1,611 1,202
  20. 20. 20 NOW: a world of APPassionatos
  21. 21. 21 More and more, mobile world is driven by apps
  22. 22. 22 “The Internet” is becoming an old lady…
  23. 23. 23 Crossing roads: (app based) media consumption on Phablets is growing much faster than on other devices
  24. 24. 24 SMARTPHONE APP GfK SocioLog Mobile Global Study Global DMI
  25. 25. 25 a personal assistant who lives in the phone, who helps solve all kinds of problems, finding efficient ways of doing things. An app means...
  26. 26. 26 EntertainmentKilling time Information gathering Communication 5 main problems solved, on a daily basis Convenience
  27. 27. 27 Love poems about social networking and location apps
  28. 28. 28 NOW: Mobile and Apps foster multi screen behavior…
  29. 29. 29 Multi device is a global reality 19% Use a tablet 65%Use a desktop computer 60% 40% Use a laptop Use a smartphone 70% of people online use more than one device to connect Source: 2013 Roper Reports® Worldwide – Consumer behavior and attitudes in 31 markets
  30. 30. 30
  31. 31. 31 Multiple screens increase the time spent consuming content Source: Media Efficiency Panel, Germany 2013 120 109 106 104 33 43 50 81 57 57 152 213 114 162 120 total (minutes)
  32. 32. 32 At the same time, “Online” goes TV… Preview Android „L „for TV. Devices will be launched in 2015 by Sony. Sharp und TP Vision Comprehensive integration… • Live TV as an „App“ besides other VoD- and entertainment offerings (gaming etc.) • Personalized recommendations • „Casting“ of content on TV-screen …much more easy to use • Voice-search and -navigation • Mobile devices as remote control Consequences: • Online as separate medium will disappear – and is evolving to an overall ecosystem for all media. • Future measurement of audiences: ratings cross all devices and platforms – for content and campaigns
  33. 33. 33 GfK CROSSMEDIA LINK
  34. 34. 34 Broaden the scope: Single source measurement of Online within the TAM-panel Going deeper: Step by step inclusion of New Screens for a Total Video Currency GfKs solution: Crossmedia link #1 Enabling cross media measurement Cross-media exposure Incremental reach Advertising ReachDigital Journey #2 Total Video Ratings Census- Measurement of Broadcasters, Media-Players and Apps GfK Crossmedia Link is GfK‘s brand for Single Source Cross Media Measurement
  35. 35. 35 On-device Meter  URLs  Search Queries  Search Results  Search Ads  Clicks (Ad & Other)  Display Ads  Content / Keywords  Videos  Pre rolls Crossmedia Link
  36. 36. 36 Hourly distribution of usage time Measuring where “eyeballs” are over the course of the day 00 to 06 h 06 to 09 h 09 to 10 h 10 to 11 h 11 to 12 h 12 to 13 h 13 to 14 h 14 to 15 h 15 to 16 h 16 to 17 h 17 to 18 h 18 to 19 h 19 to 20 h 20 to 21 h 21 to 22 h 22 to 23 h 23 to 24 h Desktop Mobile Tablet TV Crossmedia Link
  37. 37. 37 Measuring how much online really adds exclusive reach and frequency to TV Campaign X – excl./ incremental reach to TV % - persons 14+ TV reach: 28% TV and online: 54% Online exclusively: 18% In the overlapping group, the OTS increase. Research shows clear cross-media effects leading to a higher brand lift. Crossmedia Link
  38. 38. 38 Crossmedia Link Understanding which channels substantially boost reach
  39. 39. 39 TV Genuine Content Native Digital Content Digital Campaigns Total Video Ratings Where we are heading to: Single reporting of total video Single Measurement • TV-sets within households • Devices within online-panels • Census Measurement within App/Media Player Data Integration & Production Single Reportings (total) TV Ratings Digital Content Ratings Digital Campaign Ratings
  40. 40. 40 MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS 2015 Understanding the mobile consumer: in touch with the future
  41. 41. 41 Mobile World Congress 2015: the edge of innovation
  42. 42. 42 Mobile World Congress 2015: redefining Mobile Mobile encompasses much more than just ‘mobile’ as we traditionally have seen it.  No longer is the exciting news or even focal point of MWC new handset or tablet launches (though these still exist). • Rather, it’s about all of the other opportunities mobile connectivity now offers, including: Connected car Connected home Wearable tech Speeding up the technology that provides this
  43. 43. 43 Highlights from “old mobile world”
  44. 44. 44 Mid-end handsets with a mid-price range Top tier Manufacturers developing this segment at last Notable highlights:  LG – refreshed their mid-tier device line with Magna, Spirit, Leon and Joy.  Sony – confirmed their commitment to pushing mobile in the mid range, showcasing mass-market devices Xperia M4 Aqua, and Xperia Z4 tablet waterproofed to industry standard.  Microsoft – announced two new mid-range smartphones: a smaller 5 inch Lumia 640 (in 3G or LTE 4G) and slightly larger 640 XL, along with Windows 10, integrating Skype as part of its universal apps platform. Our insights:  Big brands have traditionally released high-end, premium price-point phones, but at MWC 2015 they revealed their intention to compete in the increasingly expanding market for mid-end smartphones.  While the mid- and low-end is where growth is expected, the question is whether this is too late for the big brands.  Chinese manufacturers are already well-established in this category, and continue to attack at the mid- and low-end.
  45. 45. 45 High-end tech with a mid-price range Chinese manufacturers threaten the established order Notable highlights:  Lenovo smartphones and Vibe Shot projector – smartphones retain support for Dual SIM and 4G connectivity while projector is a hybrid between smartphone and camera that takes photos in low light.  ZTE Grand 3 smartphone – contains an eye recognition system for confirmation of user ID. Our insights:  The majority of key announcements from Chinese manufacturers taking on higher-end smart devices took place at January’s CES event. For example, the release of Xiaomi’s flagship Mi Note and Mi Note Pro models.  Constructed from premium materials and packed with branded technology (e.g. Sony camera), Xiaomi’s flagship proves that offering high-end handsets at a mid-range price will win over consumers whose purchase considerations have always revolved around known brands.
  46. 46. 46 Mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) developments Tech companies moving into operator business Notable highlights: • Google – announced to offer a wireless service blending Wi-Fi (incl. Google's Fiber) and cellular networks together seamlessly. Other key features they are aiming to do are e.g. reconnecting dropped calls. Therefore the company plans to team up with existing carriers. Likely partners are going to be Sprint & T-Mobile (though Verizon & AT&T have been mooted too). • Panasonic – appear to be looking to enter a very similar market, by launching an MVNO aimed at M2M/IoT. Our insights:  This supports their desire to ‘think of hardware, software, and connectivity together’ but will also support their advertising business by improving targeting data.
  47. 47. 47 Wireless charging Notable highlights:  Ikea - launched phone-charging equipment including both individual charging pads, and furniture (such as lamps and coffee tables) with built-in charging spots. The technology uses the QI wireless charging standard, and is available across a wide-variety of smartphones.  Starbucks and McDonald’s – now offer wireless charging in-store. McDonald’s offer also utilised QI, while Starbucks offers wireless charging spots that embed Duracell technology into tables in the San Francisco area.  Samsung - highlighted that its S6 handset is compatible with the QI standard and would therefore be able to utilise this capability. It is also compatible with PMA, a rival wireless charger solution. Our insights:  Available across a wide-variety of smartphones, some of which are compatible across a variety standards, so consumers will have lots of opportunity to utilise this new technology, in an easy and convenient way.  Smartwatches were also rumoured at MWC to be chargeable in this way but didn’t become a reality. Given recent news of limited battery-life on recent smartwatch launches, extending the functionality of wireless phone-chargers to more devices is set to enhance their appeal further. Addressing consumer frustration with drained device battery
  48. 48. 48 Operating systems (OS) Beyond Android and iOS Notable highlights: • Tizen – promising start backed by Samsung and Intel. It’s the OS for Samsung’s new SmartTVs, its first Tizen based low-cost smartphone and its Galaxy Gear smartwatches. Tizen is also likely to play a role in smart home appliances. • Firefox OS – the browser-based OS is moving towards wealthy markets through partnerships with Verizon, KDDI, Telefonica, etc. in 2016. More app developers may be attracted and support Mozilla's mission to break down the walls of Android and iOS by moving from native apps to web apps. • Jolla's Sailfish – this looks surprisingly good compared to earlier versions. The Linux-based OS from Finland currently only runs on one single phone in Europe. The design can be also used on classic Android devices using a Sailfish app. • Canonical's Ubuntu is also based on Linux with no phones available yet. It has some nice ideas on the user interface but definitely not ground breaking. Our insights:  While the smartphone market is dominated by Android and iOS, followed by Windows Phone and Blackberry, there are some good new operating systems on the way.  Cracking this dominance will be a major challenge though Tizen may have a good chance as TVs become more popular.  Available app selection and user experience will be the key barriers to overcome for widespread consumer adoption.
  49. 49. 49 And what is going to define mobile in 2020
  50. 50. 50 Augmented reality (AR) A developing technology with disrupter potential Notable highlights:  Metaio – a thermal tough device that makes any physical object around you touchable – ‘the world becomes your touchscreen’. For example, the user points an iPhone camera at the wall at an album cover; the user touches the album image on the wall and the phone displays album information.  Google Tango – a Simultaneous Localisation And Mapping (SLAM) device with the aim of equipping every mobile device with a powerful suite of software and sensors that can capture a complete 3D picture of the world around it, in real time. LG will release a device using Tango-technology for consumers in 2015.  Fujitsu smartglasses – These smartglasses are be paired to a remote control (tied to the user’s arm) and to a smartphone, whose accompanying app consists in giving instructions depending on what the wearer sees through the camera. Our insights:  Metaio will allow new methods of interaction with digital devices, allowing any surface to potentially become a new input device. It is easy to see applications for this is gaming, but also retail and education.  Area mapping technology is still in its infancy. It is easy to see many potential applications for this tech, particularly in the B2B and accessibility space. This is definitely one to watch over the next few years.  Fujitsu's smartglasses allow for a new layer of digital consumption, but this time with a distinctive B2B angle. Google Glass and Microsoft Hololens have brought this technology into the mind of consumers, Fujitsu aim to capitalise on this with B2B applications.  Augmented reality is not yet part of the average consumer's daily life, but it is definitely on the way.
  51. 51. 51 Mobile payments Payments – notable highlights: Establishing partnerships for mobile payment  Google announced Android Pay – an API (includes NFC) on which to develop mobile payment solutions. Google Pay will itself be a client.  VISA – positioned themselves as the "payment engine underneath Apple Pay”, partnering with Braintree, also functioning NFC.  Samsung Pay service launched on S6 – having recently acquired LoopPay, it will support Magnetic Secure Transmission & NFC (indicating it supports both Pin & Chip cards) in partnership with Visa; as per a past partnership with Mastercard.  Mastercard – pioneering a digital ID programme with the Egyptian government linking their citizens’ national ID to a mobile money programme, thereby creating a secure mobile platform with a single cashless electronic platform for all. Our insights:  The market is still very fragmented, and waiting for someone to take control and gain dominance. However, this requires some ongoing partnerships between multiple players and it remains to be seen which ones will win through, especially with so many other players (from mobile operators and banks, to messaging players and social networks) also involved in the land grab.
  52. 52. 52 Connected car Partnerships are the key Notable partnerships include: • Vodafone & Porsche • Qualcomm & Maserati • Samsung & Seat • LG & Audi • AT&T & Cadillac Our insights:  Seemingly one of the next great frontiers for tech manufacturers and networks alike, no longer are vehicles solely the province of the auto manufacturer.  The use cases in terms of entertainment, safety, and economy are clear, but whether consumers are willing to pay the premium for this remains open to question.  Key use cases remain around entertainment, safety, and economy, but some interesting developments include links with the IoT and external sources, such as turning on your heating when you’re near home.
  53. 53. 53 Smart home From smart home to smart city Notable highlights:  LG magic mirror – along with its household appliances control system ‘Home Manager’, this mirror diagnoses the complexion of your skin.  Peel Pronto – partnering with Philips, Peel announced it’s expanding its range of devices controlled by its smart remote app to locks, lighting, thermostats, etc.  Fujisawa Sustainable Smart Town – Panasonic is building a smart town near Tokyo, and plans to transfer its best practices to other existing cities. Our insights:  The real drive behind initial growth of smart homes and smart cities will be governments and municipal authorities.  The move of Panasonic to form the foundation of a true smart town is a clear start to a broader evolution to smart cities. Starting on a smaller scale will allow for better implementation and budget control, with incremental implementation of the aspects deemed most effective and efficient into existing living and breathing cities.
  54. 54. 54 5G The road to the Internet of Things • Telefónica – unveiled its "Journey to 5G”, highlighting in a presentation two key trends: the IoT and the "virtualization" of the future. • European Commissioner for the Digital Economy and Society – Guenther Oettinger revealed that the EU has already joined a declaration with South Korea to create a single 5G standard, with hopes to include Europe, the US, Japan and China in the creation of international standards and infrastructure. Our insights:  While 4G was about increased capacity and speed for consumers, 5G is focussed on the increasing number of machines that are going to require network connections. The aim of 5G is to accelerate machine-to-machine communication, an essential component in the IoT concept.  Tests on 5G services have already yielded a staggering 1Tbps connection. Governments, as well as tech companies, see 5G as crucial for economic growth. As such, discussions about new business models for telco operators and different industries based on 5G have already kicked off.  Nevertheless, investment in 4G is unlikely to end before 2020 so 5G – which will eventually power the connections of driverless cars – is still a long way away.
  55. 55. 55 Handset security Fortifying for the era of the Internet of Things Notable highlights:  Samsung – indicative of the focus on security at MWC, Samsung gave almost as much prominence to Knox as the S6 handset. A key element are the security features that enable business and personal content to coexist on the same handset – much like BlackBerry Balance.  Secure Circle – revealed the second version of its BlackPhone, with its fortified Android OS, and suite of private apps.  Sikur GranitePhone – this is locked down so apps can't be installed and enables encrypted text, voice, chat and email communications. Our insights:  We store increasing amounts of information on our smartphones, making our personal data vulnerable if these devices are compromised. Unsurprisingly, therefore, security was a major theme of MWC.  If manufacturers want consumers to provide more information for all of the services they are providing, security has to be key, particularly in the era of the Internet of Things. It is one thing to have your Facebook account hacked, but another altogether if someone can break into your car, bank, or home.
  56. 56. 56 Summarizing Phablets App’assionatos Multiscreen New mobile 1 2 3 4
  57. 57. 57 Obrigado pela atenção!