1. Amsterdam and FttH
real broadband,
real sustainable growth
San Francisco, February 20, 2008
Dirk van der Woude
City of Amsterdam
dirkvanderwoude@gmail.com

2. 2
Lesson from the past: each industrial revolution
is underpinned by new infrastructure
THE AGE OF INFORMATION GLOBAL DIGITAL TELE-
COMMUNICATIONS AND
TECHNOLOGY 1971 ICT SUPPORT NETWORKS
THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE, ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS
PETROCHEMICALS
AND MASS PRODUCTION
1908 AND AIRWAYS
THE AGE OF STEEL ELECTRICITY AND TRANSCONTINENTAL
HEAVY ENGINEERING 1875 COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS,
RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH
THE AGE OF RAILWAYS, COAL AND RAILWAYS, PENNY POST
THE STEAM ENGINE 1829 AND TELEGRAPH
THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL
IN ENGLAND
1771 COACHES
Source: Carlota Pérez

3. 3
Nothing new (1)
Left: the highway project of HaFraBa
e.V. (1926)
Public access highways –or open
networks- were a wise German invention
(and by inspiring Mr Eisenhower lead to the
US Interstate Highway System)
However, to build them overstretched
market vision and ability, in Germany,
Holland as well as the USA
http://members.a1.net/wabweb/history/hafraba.htm

4. 4
A city and its assets

5. 5
4th in Europe – related to 40,000 jobs
start: around 1250 AD

6. 6
4th in Europe – related to 100,000 jobs
start: 1920 AD

7. 7
1st in the world – related to 50,000 jobs
start: 1997 AD
Source: Henk Steenman, 2007

8. 8
Global hub…
Online: 85% of all
Amsterdam pop.

9. 9
So Amsterdam counts three harbors…
And the latest one strenghens the city’s
attractiveness for innovative companies in
telecom, creative media, Web & ICT
Now related to about 50,000 jobs
– We wouldn’t mind more…
And we will try to capitalize even more with
real symm and open broadband
As well a base for sustainable growth
arts media and entertainment creative business services
content hardware telecommunication
financial software consultancy
Other

10. 10
Two curves
Source: Nemertes, Nov. 2007

11. 11
Conclusions Nemertes study (Nov. 2007)
The Internet Singularity, Delayed:
Backbones, switching & peering will not be the problem
Demand for Internet and IP services grows exponentially,
access investment proceeds linearly
– “we believe that this will happen possibly as early as 2010”
Impact of inadequate access infrastructure:
– relatively mild for individual users, who will encounter Internet “brownouts”
or “snow days”
– But overall, (…) this inadequate infrastructure will slow down the pace of
both technical and business innovation.
“Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in
infrastructure will painlessly and invisibly leach
competitiveness out of the economy”
And there’s that
IPv4 thingie too…

12. 12
Trouble is at the 1st mile – what to do?
“given time an exponential curve always will cross a linear one”
Source: Nemertes, Nov. 2007

13. 13
OECD: Average advertised broadband
speeds, by technology, Oct 2007
77 120
FTTx
58 591
8 993
DSL
1 603
Down
Up
8 619
Cable
722
1 840
Wireless
736

14. 14
1st mile in Japan: 280,000 new FttH… per month
Japan: FttH overtaking xDSL
1999-2007 plus prognosis 2008
March, 2008
14.000
12.000
Cable
10.000
xDSL
FttH
thousands
8.000 10 million FttH
July 4, 2007
6.000
Factual Prognosis
4.000
2.000
0
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20 .09
2
.1
08
99
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19

15. 15
Muni fiber in Europe, some examples
Köln Vienna München Paris, Hauts-de- Milan Stock- Amsterdam
NetCologne 1 million 450,000 4 SP’s Seine (1995) holm
200,000 FttH homes towards (Sarko-
FttH/B (via sewer) FttH 1 million fiber) FttB Dark fiber 40,000 FttH
FttH FttH
Role of
city
Market (estimate)
Public
Support
Subsidy
Municipal 125 million 150 million 300 70 million Up to 70 100 100 6 million in
invest- million? By cheap million million, million, PPP
ment use of subsidy now partly 10 years construct
municipal proposed. privatized profit
euro
assets making
Network No 3d layer 3d layer ? Neutral No Yes Yes
open? operator

16. 16
Amsterdam want FttH, point to point
40,000 meter boxes, 10% of Amsterdam
Boroughs of Zeeburg Why?
(100%), Oost (part) – Data infrastructure is new essential foundation
& Osdorp (part) – Necessary for future competitiveness as well as
sustainable economic and social growth
Take advantage of existing assets
– Ams-IX
– world class back bone infrastructure (we only
need last few 100 meters)
– strong media, ICT, new media sectors
– high internet use (> 85% of population)
– Internationally oriented multi-language population

17. 17
Set up & revenue streams
40,000 adresses now – later 450,000
consumer/
Service providers SME
100% market
Wholesale operator Rent
sells open access
100% market
Passive infrastructure: Rent
GNA CV
33% municipal shares
20% municipal euro’s

18. 18
This gets into every meter box
Telephone (x 2)
Coax
All existing appliances
usable – plug & play
No set top boxes!
V-lan (x 4)
- One port per service
- Separate specifications
- f.e. care, security, etc.

19. 19
What’s on offer
One high quality standard
– Henry Ford black Ford T, ‘redux’
Consumer
– Several competing service providers
– Single, double or triple play
– Internet, symmetric, 10 to 100 Mb/s
– 9,95 euro single play telephone
– 35 to 65 euro triple play incl. 20 to
30 Mb/s symmetric internet
– 100 Mb/s internet single play: 99
euro
– Competitive in price and quality
– First connected customer: april 2007
SME
– Varying offers by several competing
SP’s

20. 20
Ubiquitous broadband & Green IT
Wired vs. Wireless? No, they ‘re in
love: “A wireless bit is a bit
desperately in search of a wire”
Ben Verwaayen, CEO BT
Cheap high bandwidth lowers one of
wireless’ barriers: cheap backhaul
Or: ubiquitous broadband
Green opportunities:
– Smart traveling: PTA…
– Physical travel more and more substituted by
virtual travel
– Green low energy personal IT: PC As a Service,
Saas 2.0
Connecting & intelligizing can save lots
of energy:
– waste chain
– street lighting
– consumer goods distribution
–…
Image: thank you, Nico Baken

21. 21
A forward looking view…
An informed analysis:
Computing to follow pattern of energy
– From local supply to ubiquitous utility
Computing from a wall socket
– And wireless as well?
Large energy savings
– Have professionals in charge of resources
– Works better than overbooking…
Strong need for regulation though!

22. 22
Nothing new (2)
La Fibre?

23. 23
No, 18th century WiFi…
1792
Lille => Paris:
• 15 stations
• 36 characters in 32 minutes
• all records broken, huge success
•And up to 1846 cause for the
French to resist investing into a
copper telegraphe network
•L’ histoire se répète…

24. 24
We and ‘Our’ Networks…
Questions?
Image: thank you, Nico Baken

25. 25

26. 26
Alternative? Docsis 3.0
<= promise: “120 Mb/s over coax…”
…real world:
shared bandwidth =>
(Xiamen, Jan. 2007)

27. 27
Alternative? VDSL2
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=93103&page_number=4

28. 28
DSL, average upload speed
Countries With Relative
High Broadband
Penetration But Low
Upload DSL Speed
Source: OECD Broadband Statistics and others

29. 29
First mile today: % of services with down speeds <1Mbps or ≥5Mbps
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
> 5Mbps
Countries Where
Majority is Below 1Mbps
Source: OECD Broadband Statistics and others

30. 30
FttH first mile in Europe just a pick (2)
Vienna, Zürich (muni energy corp’s): FttH in whole city
– Vienna, Sept. 24, 2007: start of roll out to 50,000 homes
Scandinavia
– Norway: municipal energy corp of Oslo: Open FttH to 50% of whole
Norwegian population
– Sweden: 200 of 289 communities own a fiber network
– Denmark: energy corps, in 2006 – 2010 FttH to 50% of Danish population
Slovenia: incumbent
– 85% of all households in country, 450 million euro (25% soft loan by
EU)
Latvia: incumbent, 50 K FttH
Andorra (!): incumbent, copper switch off in 2009/10

31. 31
FttH first mile in Europe just a pick (1)
The battle for France, starting with Paris
– Iliad, Neuf Cegetel, France Telecom, Noos Numericable
– Massive investments
– Consumer price of 100 Mbit symmetric: 30 euro
– Hauts-de-Seine: FttH in whole department (pop. 1.5 million, 100.000
SME’s, subsidy 50 to 70 million) Chairman & proponent: M Sarkozy
– over 100 broadband projects France with government participation
– Policy French government: 4 to ? million FttH in 2012
Germany: competitive telco’s deploying FttH
– NetCologne: all of Cologne, to be followed by Bonn, Aachen?
(NetCologne = 100% GEW Köln AG = 100% City of Cologne)
– Hamburg, Telecom Italia: 100,000 FttH in 2012
– München, muni energy corp: > 60% of city FttH
– Other projects in Schwerte, Norderstedt, Hamburg, Gelsenkirchen,
Dessau, Magdeburg

32. 32
French questions, Amsterdam answers
Sharing of the last part of the local loop should be considered
option 1 option 2 option 3 option 4
Competition between 2
fiber networks Co investment Unbundling bitstream
NB: ‘NRO’ is Noeud de Raccordement Optique – or Node
Source: Mme Gabrielle Gauthey,
ARCEP (14 Nov. 2007)

33. 33
A business perspective
Layer Economic character Life cycle Cost per
sub
Service Low CapEx, average to high OpEx 1 to x years ?
Layer
Active Average CapEx, low OpEx 5 to 10 years 300 – 500
Layer
Passive High CapEx, very (very!) low OpEx 25 to 50 years 500 - 700
Layer

34. 34
Architecture
three-layer model
• Passive fibre infrastructure: Point-to-Point
• Unbundled local loop of fiber = maximum competition at services
level in value chain
• Largest capacity for future growth
• Active layer: Active Ethernet
• Applications services layer, Service providers are being offered
transparent access:
• with discrete virtual LANs (VLANs) for each service on a per user
basis
• allowing multiple services to be delivered and invoiced to each
home in parallel (i.e. multiple ISP’s, Citywide Intranet, closed circuit
IP-based surveillance, IP-TV, care and medical services etc.)

35. 35
FttH & broadband strategy of Amsterdam
Create a market entity (GNA) that rolls out fiber
– With a minimal financial government participation
– On equal market terms
– No involvement in active network, services or pricing
– In accordance with EU state aid rules
Open network, universal roll out
– Start with first 10% of city, to be followed by rest of city
Roll out creates intricate network
– Cheapily accessible
– Ideal conditions for wireless networks as well
Final aim: ubiquitous broadband in all of Amsterdam
Selective stimulation of services
– Using ideal living lab for innovative services

36. 36
Fast broadband & economic growth
Estimated impact on GDP - Compound Annual Growth Rate in %(2007-2015)
Australia - Broadband Advisory Group
UK - BSG
Queensland - Allen Consulting
NZ - NZ Institute**
NZ - Economist Intelligence Unit
USA - Momentum Group & Brookings Institution
Victoria - ACIL Tasman
Korea - Ministry of Info. and Comms ( ETRI,
KSDNI, KT, SK Telecom, and LG Telecom)
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4
Source: September 2007 The New Zealand Institute - www.nzinstitute.org

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Killer app?