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DEBT
 WHERE TO FIND IT IN 2010?




This event was made possible by the above sponsors
PANELISTS

  • Bill Harvey
    Senior Vice President

  • Jaime Zadra
    Principal

  • Ronnie Gul (in place of Steve Fried)
    Vice President

  • Rudy Kramer
    Senior Vice President
MARKET PRESSURE POINTS

 Funding gap
     $450 bn maturities in 2010/2011/2012
     If CMBS issuance grows 10X from 2009 issuance ($130 mn), it's only 3% of 2010 maturities 
    maturity events & new debt to come from Banks, Life Companies, Agency, & Specialty

 Ample buy-side liquidity in the market today
     Abundant Institutional Capital for core assets in gateway markets
     Plenty of private capital (pricing is key) for secondary and transitional properties

 Declining fundamentals as continued job losses ripple through the office market

 Scarcity of product on the market is driving price (ahead of fundamentals)

 Quality assets get pricing premiums
THE UNDERWRITTEN NOI
Underwriting
 Vacancy – 10% to account for weakening fundamentals, credit quality of
tenants
 Rents – Decreases of 20%-40% depending upon the market
 T.I.’s – Increases of 50%+ from current market (Manhattan = $70 psf)
 Lease-up – Doubling lease-up time
 Reserves – $.20/.25 psf
 Residual – 50-100 bp over going in cap rate

Result
 NOI is 10-20% less than actual operating statements
 Lender LTV: 50%-65%, Borrower LTV: 40%-55%
 Buyer Cap Rate: 7%-10%, Seller Cap Rate: 9%-12%
 Result = Value Dislocation (price is hard to discover)
 Net Cash Flow v. Net Operating Income
HFF DEBT TRANSACTION
                              ACTIVITY
% of Loan Transaction
Volume

50.0%


40.0%


30.0%


20.0%


10.0%


 0.0%




                                                                  2007

                                                                  2008

                                                                  3Q 2009




            SOURCE: HFF Transactional Activity by Dollar Volume
OVERALL HOLDERS OF
                    SECURED CRE DEBT
                                                                                9/09       9/08
                                                                               ($Bil.)    ($Bil.)   % Chg.

                                                           Banks & Thrifts    $1,722.4   $1,711.4    +0.4
                               CMBS                        CMBS                708.5      745.5      -5.0
                                21%
                                                Insurers   Insurers            310.1      318.0      -2.5
                                                  9%       Federal Agencies    282.6      250.9     +12.6
Banks &
                                                           Agency CMBS         162.2      148.6      +9.2
 Thrifts
  50%                                                      Other               250.6      276.5      -9.4

                                                           Total              $3,436.4   $3,450.9    -0.4
                                            Federal
                                           Agencies
                                       Agency 8%
                          Other        CMBS
                           7%           5%




       SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board, as of Sep. 2009
AVERAGE LTVs FOR HFF




                                               Office   Retail
                                    Year        LTV     LTV

                                    2004        74%     75%
 Declining leverage                2005        72%     75%
 Declining property cash flow      2006        77%     74%
                                    2007        72%     73%
                                    2008        68%     64%
                                    2009        60%     58%
                                 Since Aug 1    66%     63%
AVAILABILITY OF DEBT
                 PRODUCTS
Loan Type                                               Availability

Permanent/Term Loans

Bridge Financing

New Construction Financing

Financing for unstabilized or non-cash flowing assets   ?
Stabilized Office (Financial District)
                                       multi-tenant class-A
Property             566,000 net rentable SF; 28 story; largest tenants are
Description          several leading law firms with lease maturity in 2017
                     (DLA Piper Rudnick, Howrey Simon Arnold)
Buyer/Borrower       JV between a foreign fund and an experienced/capable
                     local operator structured as a 90/10 split; long-term hold
                     strategy to own a stabilized CBD at well below
                     replacement cost in a much-improved downtown LA
Hurdles              Loan request is greater than $50 MM
Purchase Price       $125,000,000

Cash Flow            T12 NOI $8.8 MM
                     $8,944,000 NOI (87% occupancy)


          Loan Request
          Amount           Up to $81,250,000
          LTV              50-65%
          Rate             Fixed preferred
          Amortization     30 Year
          Term             10 years
          Recourse         Non or partial-recourse preferred
Stabilized Retail (Coastal Orange County)
               Grocery/Drug anchored neighborhood center
Property Description       140,000 net rentable SF; built in 1977, renovated in 2005; located at a primary intersection;
                           Albertson’s occupies 60,000 SF (rollover in 2015) T-12 sales $425 psf; Rite-Aid occupies
                           20,000 SF (rollover in 2011) T-12 sales n/a; remaining tenants a good mix of national/local
                           tenants with an even rollover over the next 5 yrs, avg sales of $325 psf and rents of $2.56
                           psf NNN
Owner/Borrower             Publicly traded REIT with a $27 MM securitized interest-only loan that matures in April 2010
                           (originated in 2005 as a 5 Year loan)

Hurdle                     Rollover of maturing CMBS loan
Valuation                  Borrower values NOI at a 7.5% cap (value = $34,700,000)
Cash Flow                  T-12 NOI $2.6 MM (92% occupancy)


            Loan Request
            Amount          Up to $27,000,000
            LTV             50-65%
            Rate            Fixed preferred or floating
            Amortization    30 Year
            Term            5 years
            Recourse        Non or partial-recourse preferred
Multi-housing - approaching stabilization
                 (downtown LA/Southpark neighborhood)
Property           157,000 net rentable SF; 20 story bldg, 160 units,
Description        class-A amenities (pool, fitness, theater/game
                   room) on a 20,000 SF single land parcel; 240 space
                   parking facility (1 space per bedroom). An
                   apartment built to condo specs at $350 psf, for a
                   cost of $61,250,000
Owner/Borrower     5 member syndicate with an established apartment
                   operator as GP

Hurdles            After concessions, rent is averaging $2.65 psf
Purchase Price     $45,000,000 ($257/SF)
Cash Flow          T-12 NOI $2.5 MM (80% occupancy)


          Loan Request
          Amount         Up to $27,000,000
          LTV            50-65%
          Rate           Fixed preferred
          Amortization   Interest Only or 30 Year
          Term           5 or 7 years
          Recourse       Non or partial-recourse preferred
Industrial - unstablized
           (Cornerstone Commerce Center – Downey, CA)
Property Description      45 newly constructed industrial condomiums, totaling 176,000 SF, situated on 8.83 acres.
                          One of the most desirable industrial projects in the sub-market; part of a larger 195,000 SF,
                          50-unit business park “Cornerstone Commerce Center” built at $140 psf; units are 14%
                          improved with office space
Owner/Borrower            Rexford, an experienced/capable operator of industrial real estate

Hurdles                   Non-cash flowing asset; holdback for commissions, interest reserve, & Operating Expenses
                          request; partial reconveyance; 11.39% market availability rent (vacant + sub-lease

Strategy                  (i) Sell individual units to owner/users; (ii) sell the entire project to one investor at a market
                          cap rate (Yr 3 stabilized Cap Rate projected to be 10.4%, based on 30% below market
                          rents); (iii) sell individual leased multi-tenant buildings to smaller 1031 exchange buyers at
                          anticipated pricing close to owner/user values.
Purchase Price            $10,000,000 ($57/SF)

           Loan Request
           Amount          Up to $7,500,000
           LTV             55-75%
           Rate            Fixed or floating
           Amortization    Interest only / 25 or 30 Year
           Term            3 Years
           Recourse        Partial-recourse
QUESTIONS




              Moderator   John Crump (Holiday Fenoglio Fowler)

YLG Education Committee   Greg Mino (Fuscoe Engineering)
                          Bob Eidson (Asset Plan USA)
              Volunteer   Alan Kwan (Rexford Industrial)

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ULI Los Angeles DEBT Where to find it in 2010

  • 1. DEBT WHERE TO FIND IT IN 2010? This event was made possible by the above sponsors
  • 2. PANELISTS • Bill Harvey Senior Vice President • Jaime Zadra Principal • Ronnie Gul (in place of Steve Fried) Vice President • Rudy Kramer Senior Vice President
  • 3. MARKET PRESSURE POINTS  Funding gap  $450 bn maturities in 2010/2011/2012  If CMBS issuance grows 10X from 2009 issuance ($130 mn), it's only 3% of 2010 maturities  maturity events & new debt to come from Banks, Life Companies, Agency, & Specialty  Ample buy-side liquidity in the market today  Abundant Institutional Capital for core assets in gateway markets  Plenty of private capital (pricing is key) for secondary and transitional properties  Declining fundamentals as continued job losses ripple through the office market  Scarcity of product on the market is driving price (ahead of fundamentals)  Quality assets get pricing premiums
  • 4. THE UNDERWRITTEN NOI Underwriting  Vacancy – 10% to account for weakening fundamentals, credit quality of tenants  Rents – Decreases of 20%-40% depending upon the market  T.I.’s – Increases of 50%+ from current market (Manhattan = $70 psf)  Lease-up – Doubling lease-up time  Reserves – $.20/.25 psf  Residual – 50-100 bp over going in cap rate Result  NOI is 10-20% less than actual operating statements  Lender LTV: 50%-65%, Borrower LTV: 40%-55%  Buyer Cap Rate: 7%-10%, Seller Cap Rate: 9%-12%  Result = Value Dislocation (price is hard to discover)  Net Cash Flow v. Net Operating Income
  • 5. HFF DEBT TRANSACTION ACTIVITY % of Loan Transaction Volume 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2007 2008 3Q 2009 SOURCE: HFF Transactional Activity by Dollar Volume
  • 6. OVERALL HOLDERS OF SECURED CRE DEBT 9/09 9/08 ($Bil.) ($Bil.) % Chg. Banks & Thrifts $1,722.4 $1,711.4 +0.4 CMBS CMBS 708.5 745.5 -5.0 21% Insurers Insurers 310.1 318.0 -2.5 9% Federal Agencies 282.6 250.9 +12.6 Banks & Agency CMBS 162.2 148.6 +9.2 Thrifts 50% Other 250.6 276.5 -9.4 Total $3,436.4 $3,450.9 -0.4 Federal Agencies Agency 8% Other CMBS 7% 5% SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board, as of Sep. 2009
  • 7. AVERAGE LTVs FOR HFF Office Retail Year LTV LTV 2004 74% 75%  Declining leverage 2005 72% 75%  Declining property cash flow 2006 77% 74% 2007 72% 73% 2008 68% 64% 2009 60% 58% Since Aug 1 66% 63%
  • 8. AVAILABILITY OF DEBT PRODUCTS Loan Type Availability Permanent/Term Loans Bridge Financing New Construction Financing Financing for unstabilized or non-cash flowing assets ?
  • 9. Stabilized Office (Financial District) multi-tenant class-A Property 566,000 net rentable SF; 28 story; largest tenants are Description several leading law firms with lease maturity in 2017 (DLA Piper Rudnick, Howrey Simon Arnold) Buyer/Borrower JV between a foreign fund and an experienced/capable local operator structured as a 90/10 split; long-term hold strategy to own a stabilized CBD at well below replacement cost in a much-improved downtown LA Hurdles Loan request is greater than $50 MM Purchase Price $125,000,000 Cash Flow T12 NOI $8.8 MM $8,944,000 NOI (87% occupancy) Loan Request Amount Up to $81,250,000 LTV 50-65% Rate Fixed preferred Amortization 30 Year Term 10 years Recourse Non or partial-recourse preferred
  • 10. Stabilized Retail (Coastal Orange County) Grocery/Drug anchored neighborhood center Property Description 140,000 net rentable SF; built in 1977, renovated in 2005; located at a primary intersection; Albertson’s occupies 60,000 SF (rollover in 2015) T-12 sales $425 psf; Rite-Aid occupies 20,000 SF (rollover in 2011) T-12 sales n/a; remaining tenants a good mix of national/local tenants with an even rollover over the next 5 yrs, avg sales of $325 psf and rents of $2.56 psf NNN Owner/Borrower Publicly traded REIT with a $27 MM securitized interest-only loan that matures in April 2010 (originated in 2005 as a 5 Year loan) Hurdle Rollover of maturing CMBS loan Valuation Borrower values NOI at a 7.5% cap (value = $34,700,000) Cash Flow T-12 NOI $2.6 MM (92% occupancy) Loan Request Amount Up to $27,000,000 LTV 50-65% Rate Fixed preferred or floating Amortization 30 Year Term 5 years Recourse Non or partial-recourse preferred
  • 11. Multi-housing - approaching stabilization (downtown LA/Southpark neighborhood) Property 157,000 net rentable SF; 20 story bldg, 160 units, Description class-A amenities (pool, fitness, theater/game room) on a 20,000 SF single land parcel; 240 space parking facility (1 space per bedroom). An apartment built to condo specs at $350 psf, for a cost of $61,250,000 Owner/Borrower 5 member syndicate with an established apartment operator as GP Hurdles After concessions, rent is averaging $2.65 psf Purchase Price $45,000,000 ($257/SF) Cash Flow T-12 NOI $2.5 MM (80% occupancy) Loan Request Amount Up to $27,000,000 LTV 50-65% Rate Fixed preferred Amortization Interest Only or 30 Year Term 5 or 7 years Recourse Non or partial-recourse preferred
  • 12. Industrial - unstablized (Cornerstone Commerce Center – Downey, CA) Property Description 45 newly constructed industrial condomiums, totaling 176,000 SF, situated on 8.83 acres. One of the most desirable industrial projects in the sub-market; part of a larger 195,000 SF, 50-unit business park “Cornerstone Commerce Center” built at $140 psf; units are 14% improved with office space Owner/Borrower Rexford, an experienced/capable operator of industrial real estate Hurdles Non-cash flowing asset; holdback for commissions, interest reserve, & Operating Expenses request; partial reconveyance; 11.39% market availability rent (vacant + sub-lease Strategy (i) Sell individual units to owner/users; (ii) sell the entire project to one investor at a market cap rate (Yr 3 stabilized Cap Rate projected to be 10.4%, based on 30% below market rents); (iii) sell individual leased multi-tenant buildings to smaller 1031 exchange buyers at anticipated pricing close to owner/user values. Purchase Price $10,000,000 ($57/SF) Loan Request Amount Up to $7,500,000 LTV 55-75% Rate Fixed or floating Amortization Interest only / 25 or 30 Year Term 3 Years Recourse Partial-recourse
  • 13. QUESTIONS Moderator John Crump (Holiday Fenoglio Fowler) YLG Education Committee Greg Mino (Fuscoe Engineering) Bob Eidson (Asset Plan USA) Volunteer Alan Kwan (Rexford Industrial)