This is a presentation I prepared for a ULI LA Education Event "DEBT: Where to find it in 2010." We brought 4 institutional scale lenders together, to respond to 4 loan request scenarios. If the CMBS market grows 10x in 2010, then it will only accomodate 3% of maturities. Debt will still come from Life Cos, Banks (recourse & non-recourse), and Mezz lenders
1. DEBT
WHERE TO FIND IT IN 2010?
This event was made possible by the above sponsors
2. PANELISTS
• Bill Harvey
Senior Vice President
• Jaime Zadra
Principal
• Ronnie Gul (in place of Steve Fried)
Vice President
• Rudy Kramer
Senior Vice President
3. MARKET PRESSURE POINTS
Funding gap
$450 bn maturities in 2010/2011/2012
If CMBS issuance grows 10X from 2009 issuance ($130 mn), it's only 3% of 2010 maturities
maturity events & new debt to come from Banks, Life Companies, Agency, & Specialty
Ample buy-side liquidity in the market today
Abundant Institutional Capital for core assets in gateway markets
Plenty of private capital (pricing is key) for secondary and transitional properties
Declining fundamentals as continued job losses ripple through the office market
Scarcity of product on the market is driving price (ahead of fundamentals)
Quality assets get pricing premiums
4. THE UNDERWRITTEN NOI
Underwriting
Vacancy – 10% to account for weakening fundamentals, credit quality of
tenants
Rents – Decreases of 20%-40% depending upon the market
T.I.’s – Increases of 50%+ from current market (Manhattan = $70 psf)
Lease-up – Doubling lease-up time
Reserves – $.20/.25 psf
Residual – 50-100 bp over going in cap rate
Result
NOI is 10-20% less than actual operating statements
Lender LTV: 50%-65%, Borrower LTV: 40%-55%
Buyer Cap Rate: 7%-10%, Seller Cap Rate: 9%-12%
Result = Value Dislocation (price is hard to discover)
Net Cash Flow v. Net Operating Income
5. HFF DEBT TRANSACTION
ACTIVITY
% of Loan Transaction
Volume
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2007
2008
3Q 2009
SOURCE: HFF Transactional Activity by Dollar Volume
6. OVERALL HOLDERS OF
SECURED CRE DEBT
9/09 9/08
($Bil.) ($Bil.) % Chg.
Banks & Thrifts $1,722.4 $1,711.4 +0.4
CMBS CMBS 708.5 745.5 -5.0
21%
Insurers Insurers 310.1 318.0 -2.5
9% Federal Agencies 282.6 250.9 +12.6
Banks &
Agency CMBS 162.2 148.6 +9.2
Thrifts
50% Other 250.6 276.5 -9.4
Total $3,436.4 $3,450.9 -0.4
Federal
Agencies
Agency 8%
Other CMBS
7% 5%
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board, as of Sep. 2009
7. AVERAGE LTVs FOR HFF
Office Retail
Year LTV LTV
2004 74% 75%
Declining leverage 2005 72% 75%
Declining property cash flow 2006 77% 74%
2007 72% 73%
2008 68% 64%
2009 60% 58%
Since Aug 1 66% 63%
8. AVAILABILITY OF DEBT
PRODUCTS
Loan Type Availability
Permanent/Term Loans
Bridge Financing
New Construction Financing
Financing for unstabilized or non-cash flowing assets ?
9. Stabilized Office (Financial District)
multi-tenant class-A
Property 566,000 net rentable SF; 28 story; largest tenants are
Description several leading law firms with lease maturity in 2017
(DLA Piper Rudnick, Howrey Simon Arnold)
Buyer/Borrower JV between a foreign fund and an experienced/capable
local operator structured as a 90/10 split; long-term hold
strategy to own a stabilized CBD at well below
replacement cost in a much-improved downtown LA
Hurdles Loan request is greater than $50 MM
Purchase Price $125,000,000
Cash Flow T12 NOI $8.8 MM
$8,944,000 NOI (87% occupancy)
Loan Request
Amount Up to $81,250,000
LTV 50-65%
Rate Fixed preferred
Amortization 30 Year
Term 10 years
Recourse Non or partial-recourse preferred
10. Stabilized Retail (Coastal Orange County)
Grocery/Drug anchored neighborhood center
Property Description 140,000 net rentable SF; built in 1977, renovated in 2005; located at a primary intersection;
Albertson’s occupies 60,000 SF (rollover in 2015) T-12 sales $425 psf; Rite-Aid occupies
20,000 SF (rollover in 2011) T-12 sales n/a; remaining tenants a good mix of national/local
tenants with an even rollover over the next 5 yrs, avg sales of $325 psf and rents of $2.56
psf NNN
Owner/Borrower Publicly traded REIT with a $27 MM securitized interest-only loan that matures in April 2010
(originated in 2005 as a 5 Year loan)
Hurdle Rollover of maturing CMBS loan
Valuation Borrower values NOI at a 7.5% cap (value = $34,700,000)
Cash Flow T-12 NOI $2.6 MM (92% occupancy)
Loan Request
Amount Up to $27,000,000
LTV 50-65%
Rate Fixed preferred or floating
Amortization 30 Year
Term 5 years
Recourse Non or partial-recourse preferred
11. Multi-housing - approaching stabilization
(downtown LA/Southpark neighborhood)
Property 157,000 net rentable SF; 20 story bldg, 160 units,
Description class-A amenities (pool, fitness, theater/game
room) on a 20,000 SF single land parcel; 240 space
parking facility (1 space per bedroom). An
apartment built to condo specs at $350 psf, for a
cost of $61,250,000
Owner/Borrower 5 member syndicate with an established apartment
operator as GP
Hurdles After concessions, rent is averaging $2.65 psf
Purchase Price $45,000,000 ($257/SF)
Cash Flow T-12 NOI $2.5 MM (80% occupancy)
Loan Request
Amount Up to $27,000,000
LTV 50-65%
Rate Fixed preferred
Amortization Interest Only or 30 Year
Term 5 or 7 years
Recourse Non or partial-recourse preferred
12. Industrial - unstablized
(Cornerstone Commerce Center – Downey, CA)
Property Description 45 newly constructed industrial condomiums, totaling 176,000 SF, situated on 8.83 acres.
One of the most desirable industrial projects in the sub-market; part of a larger 195,000 SF,
50-unit business park “Cornerstone Commerce Center” built at $140 psf; units are 14%
improved with office space
Owner/Borrower Rexford, an experienced/capable operator of industrial real estate
Hurdles Non-cash flowing asset; holdback for commissions, interest reserve, & Operating Expenses
request; partial reconveyance; 11.39% market availability rent (vacant + sub-lease
Strategy (i) Sell individual units to owner/users; (ii) sell the entire project to one investor at a market
cap rate (Yr 3 stabilized Cap Rate projected to be 10.4%, based on 30% below market
rents); (iii) sell individual leased multi-tenant buildings to smaller 1031 exchange buyers at
anticipated pricing close to owner/user values.
Purchase Price $10,000,000 ($57/SF)
Loan Request
Amount Up to $7,500,000
LTV 55-75%
Rate Fixed or floating
Amortization Interest only / 25 or 30 Year
Term 3 Years
Recourse Partial-recourse
13. QUESTIONS
Moderator John Crump (Holiday Fenoglio Fowler)
YLG Education Committee Greg Mino (Fuscoe Engineering)
Bob Eidson (Asset Plan USA)
Volunteer Alan Kwan (Rexford Industrial)