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  1. 1. Short-term outlook for meat markets Edit Konya – DG AGRI, Unit L.2, Economic analysis of EU agriculture Brussels, 29 June 2011
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DG AGRI produces the meat balance sheets regularly, 3 times per year; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Structure: Overall EU market balance and balance sheets for beef, pork, poultry and sheep </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Used database: EUROSTAT - Comext </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Covered timeframe: from 2009 to 2012, graphs from 2000 to 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The years 2009 and 2010 are based on historical data, estimates for 2011 were derived from latest herd and GIP (Gross Indigenous Production) forecast figures. Forecast for 2012 – trend analysis, assumptions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regular discussion between market experts within DG AGRI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Presented version: June 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Graphs – in 1 000 t carcass weight equivalent. </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Overall meat market balance
  4. 4. Overall meat market balance <ul><li>2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EU meat demand declined marginally in 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Export volumes increased in 2010 (in particular beef and € weakened against USD -> improved EU export competitiveness ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>While imports have fallen (lower EU internal demand) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2011 and 2012 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimated slight increase in production in 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Imports would fall and exports would increase in 2011 but the trend is expected to reverse in 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Overall meat c onsumption would stay at the same level of 2010 and would increase in 2012 </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. EU-27 Beef/veal market balance
  6. 6. EU beef and veal market <ul><li>2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The export was strong, the EU became net exporter (concerning all beef products) – for the first time since 2003 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2011 and 2012 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Meat production is expected to remain at the same level in 2011 and to decrease in 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forecasted decline in beef exports both in 2011 and 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Live imports would continue decreasing but meat imports are foreseen to increase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Overall consumption would increase slightly in 2011 and decrease in 2012 </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. EU-27 pigmeat market balance
  8. 8. EU pork market perspectives <ul><li>2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Feed prices started increasing in summer 2010 + dioxin scare </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Production and meat export increased </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2011 and 2012 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In response to the difficult market situation private storage was introduced in February 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Production is expected to grow slowly in 2011 and then to stagnate in 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Both live and meat exports could exceed the 2010 volumes in 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption would decrease slightly in 2011 and then increase next year </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. EU-27 poultrymeat market balance
  10. 10. EU pultrymeat perspectives <ul><li>2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Production increased compared to 2009 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Declining meat import trend continued </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Meat exports increased sharply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption was close to stagnation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2011 and 2012 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Production is expected to increase slightly both in 2011 and in 2012 (higher EU domestic demand) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World demand for poultrymeat is growing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption would increase slightly in 2011 and in 2012 </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. EU-27 Sheepmeat balance
  12. 12. EU sheep meat market perspectives <ul><li>2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand for sheep meat weakened </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption fell, reduced breeding flock </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Live and meat imports to the EU fell </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2011 and 2012 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Production is forecasted to continue falling in 2011 and in 2012 as well </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption is expected to fall in the following two years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lamb import would increase (New Zealand) </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Concluding remarks – for 2011 <ul><li>Feed prices remain at very high if not increasing again </li></ul><ul><li>Prices for energy have been increasing since 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Both import and export trade volumes remain largely unchanged in total terms (shifts in origin/destination naturally according to relative prices) </li></ul><ul><li>Consumption of beef, pork and sheep meat would have decline with poultry slightly up </li></ul><ul><li>Stabilization in EU meat demand </li></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>Thank you for your attention! </li></ul>

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