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Hubertus Gay

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Hubertus Gay

  1. 1. Market outlook for grains and oilseeds Stephan Hubertus Gay DG Agriculture and Rural Development
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Cereal and oilseed balances regularily produced in DG AGRI </li></ul><ul><li>Basis: Eurostat balances </li></ul><ul><li>Current yield estimate from „MARS Bulletins for Europe“ (JRC-IES) </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion between market experts within DG AGRI </li></ul><ul><li>Presented version: June 2011 </li></ul>
  3. 3. Usage of cereals in the EU
  4. 4. EU cereal balance ?
  5. 5. Extra-EU trade in cereals
  6. 6. EU cereal prices
  7. 7. Uses and balance items <ul><li>2010/2011 high net-exports and sharp reduction in stocks </li></ul><ul><li>Price levels comparable to 2007/2008 </li></ul><ul><li>2011/2012 reduction in net-exports expected </li></ul><ul><li>Almost unchanged harvest in 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Stocks expected to remain under pressure </li></ul>
  8. 8. Cereal production in the EU
  9. 9. Areas of concern as of mid-May 2011 <ul><li>Source: MARS Bulletin Vol. 19 No. 6 (2011), JRC-IES </li></ul>
  10. 10. Cereal yields in the EU
  11. 11. Grain area in the EU
  12. 12. Production, yield and area <ul><li>Increase in grain maize production and decline in soft wheat </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced average yields for soft wheat and barley </li></ul><ul><li>Increased area of grain maize </li></ul><ul><li>Generally lower yields and only slight increases in cereal area </li></ul>
  13. 13. Cereal, oilseed and protein crops (COP) area
  14. 14. Rapeseed price and price ratio
  15. 15. Oilseed availabilities and uses
  16. 16. Oilseed balances <ul><li>Strong demand for oilmeals and vegetable oils </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced expected crushing of rapeseed in 2011/2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Production decline of rapeseed due to yield decline </li></ul><ul><li>Continued gain in area but this season due to sunflower and not rapeseed </li></ul>
  17. 17. Concluding remarks <ul><li>2010/2012: tight season with high prices </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced imports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduction of stocks (intervention and private) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2011/2012: continued tight markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Slower demand increase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced net-exports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small expansion in COP area </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low yield prospects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Almost unchanged production </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stocks remain under pressure </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Thank you!

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