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Hungry for Change - Wayne Jones

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Hungry for Change - Wayne Jones

  1. 1. Agricultural Outlook Prospects, Productivity and Policies Wayne Jones,OECD Trade and Agriculture 10 November 2011
  2. 2. Prospects for agriculture are good… Global consensus on medium term prospects for agriculture and fisheries • Higher average prices • Increasing production • Growing non-food use • Expanding trade
  3. 3. Higher average commodity prices % change in average real prices 2001-10 to 2011-2020 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
  4. 4. Rising agricultural and fish production N.America L.America W.Europe E.Europe&C.Asia N.Africa&M.East S.S.Africa 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
  5. 5. EU production projections EU27 Production: % change 2011-2020 vs. 2001-10 Coarse grains Rice Pigmeat Fish Poultry Whole Milk Powder Cheese Butter Wheat Beef Protein meals Skimmed Milk… Veget. Oils Sugar Oilseeds -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
  6. 6. Rising non-food demand Share of global production used for biofuel feedstocks Percent 2020 2008-2010 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sugar cane Vegetable oil Coarse Grains Sugar beet Wheat
  7. 7. Expanding global trade Share of export gains 2011-2020 N.America 13% Oceania 4% Asia&Pacific 38% L.America 27% S.S.Africa -1% W.Europe N.Africa & E.Europe&C. Asia 6% M.East 0% 11%
  8. 8. EU production projections EU 27 Net position 2011- 2020 vs. 2001-2010: exports minus imports in thousand tonnes (absolute difference) Whole Milk Powder Skimmed Milk Powder Poultry Cheese Butter Pigmeat Beef Oilseeds Rice Wheat Fish 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Protein meals Coarse grains Sugar Veget. Oils -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0
  9. 9. Good global prospects but rising… …production costs …market/price volatility …resource constraints …and slowing productivity growth
  10. 10. Rising production costs • FACEPA and agri- benchmark farm level analysis • Variable costs have gone up – mainly energy and feed • Impacts different by farm type and prod’n structure • Costs have risen less than input prices (farmers adjust) • Farm income rises with farm size
  11. 11. Greater market/price volatility… • Weather (climate change) • Low stocks • Energy prices • Exchange rates • Inelastic demand • Ag and trade policy
  12. 12. Resource constraints: water shortages • 47% population under severe water stress by 2050 • Irrigation costs rise with energy prices • Water pricing to agriculture will increase • 60% freshwater withdrawals by agriculture (2010) • 40% freshwater withdrawals used by agriculture (2050)
  13. 13. The need to increase productivity growth • Growing demand for food and fuel • Increasing competition for land • Important water constraints • Uncertain impacts of climate change Improving agricultural productivity growth is not an option to consider - it is an essential requirement fro increasing global food supplies on a sustainable basis.
  14. 14. Slower agricultural TFP growth Average annual growth rate by period (%)
  15. 15. Slower projected global output growth… Global agricultural production growth 3.0% 2.60% 2.0% 1.70% 1.0% 0.0% 2001-2010 2011-2020
  16. 16. Productivity and Sustainability • Need to reduce waste/carbon footprint (sustainable consumption and production) • Need to increase productivity in a more sustainable manner • Productivity and sustainability can be complimentary outcomes •Precision farming (fertilizer/crop protection) •More efficient water use (drip irrigation) •Eco-system approaches (intensify production, conserve organic matter)
  17. 17. Governments can help Governments need to link policies to priorities • Invest in innovation • Improve sustainability • Facilitate producer risk management
  18. 18. EU policy reforms Since 1992 several reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy have aimed at reducing distortions to production and trade in agriculture Post 2013: • Reduce market distortions • Strengthen AKS systems • Target environmental policies
  19. 19. OECD Trade and Agriculture www.agri-outlook.org

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