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Agricultural Outlook
Prospects, Productivity and
Policies

Wayne Jones,OECD Trade and Agriculture
10 November 2011
Prospects for agriculture are good…

Global consensus on
 medium term
 prospects for
 agriculture and
 fisheries
• Higher average prices
• Increasing production
• Growing non-food use
• Expanding trade
Higher average commodity prices
      % change in average real prices 2001-10 to 2011-2020
60

50

40

30

20

10

 0

-10
Rising agricultural and fish production
      N.America            L.America         W.Europe
      E.Europe&C.Asia      N.Africa&M.East   S.S.Africa

160
150
140
130
120
110
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
      2000          2005          2010       2015         2020
EU production projections
      EU27 Production: % change 2011-2020 vs. 2001-10

                                               Coarse grains
                                    Rice            Pigmeat
                                    Fish             Poultry
                    Whole Milk Powder                Cheese
                               Butter                Wheat
                                   Beef        Protein meals
                        Skimmed Milk…             Veget. Oils
                                   Sugar            Oilseeds
-25     -20   -15     -10     -5           0                    0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35
Rising non-food demand
Share of global production used for biofuel feedstocks



Percent
                            2020                 2008-2010
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
 5%
 0%
          Sugar cane   Vegetable oil   Coarse Grains   Sugar beet   Wheat
Expanding global trade
Share of export gains 2011-2020

                                            N.America
                                               13%
                                 Oceania
                                   4%


              Asia&Pacific
                  38%
                                                        L.America
                                                           27%

                               S.S.Africa
                                  -1%

                                            W.Europe
                     N.Africa & E.Europe&C.
                                    Asia       6%
                      M.East
                        0%          11%
EU production projections
    EU 27 Net position 2011- 2020 vs. 2001-2010: exports minus
    imports in thousand tonnes (absolute difference)
                         Whole Milk Powder          Skimmed Milk Powder
                                    Poultry                      Cheese
                                     Butter                     Pigmeat
                                       Beef                     Oilseeds
                                       Rice                       Wheat
                                       Fish                                0   1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
                             Protein meals
                              Coarse grains
                                      Sugar
                                Veget. Oils
-6000   -5000   -4000   -3000   -2000   -1000   0
Good global prospects but rising…


…production costs
…market/price volatility
…resource constraints




…and slowing productivity
 growth
Rising production costs


• FACEPA and agri-
  benchmark farm level
  analysis
• Variable costs have gone up
  – mainly energy and feed
• Impacts different by farm
  type and prod’n structure
• Costs have risen less than
  input prices (farmers adjust)
• Farm income rises with
  farm size
Greater market/price volatility…


• Weather (climate change)
• Low stocks
• Energy prices
• Exchange rates
• Inelastic demand
• Ag and trade policy
Resource constraints: water shortages


• 47% population under
  severe water stress by 2050
• Irrigation costs rise with
  energy prices
• Water pricing to agriculture
  will increase
• 60% freshwater withdrawals
  by agriculture (2010)
• 40% freshwater withdrawals
  used by agriculture (2050)
The need to increase productivity
growth

• Growing demand for food and fuel
• Increasing competition for land
• Important water constraints
• Uncertain impacts of climate change
Improving agricultural productivity growth is not an option to
consider - it is an essential requirement fro increasing global
food supplies on a sustainable basis.
Slower agricultural TFP growth
Average annual growth rate by period (%)
Slower projected global output growth…
Global agricultural production growth
3.0%
              2.60%



2.0%
                                    1.70%



1.0%




0.0%
            2001-2010              2011-2020
Productivity and Sustainability


• Need to reduce waste/carbon footprint (sustainable
  consumption and production)
• Need to increase productivity in a more sustainable manner
• Productivity and sustainability can be complimentary
  outcomes
     •Precision farming (fertilizer/crop protection)
     •More efficient water use (drip irrigation)
     •Eco-system approaches (intensify production, conserve
     organic matter)
Governments can help


Governments need to
link policies to priorities
• Invest in innovation
• Improve sustainability
• Facilitate producer
  risk management
EU policy reforms


Since 1992 several reforms of
the Common Agricultural
Policy have aimed at reducing
distortions to production and
trade in agriculture
Post 2013:
• Reduce market distortions
• Strengthen AKS systems
• Target environmental
  policies
OECD Trade and Agriculture


    www.agri-outlook.org

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Hungry for Change - Wayne Jones

  • 1. Agricultural Outlook Prospects, Productivity and Policies Wayne Jones,OECD Trade and Agriculture 10 November 2011
  • 2. Prospects for agriculture are good… Global consensus on medium term prospects for agriculture and fisheries • Higher average prices • Increasing production • Growing non-food use • Expanding trade
  • 3. Higher average commodity prices % change in average real prices 2001-10 to 2011-2020 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
  • 4. Rising agricultural and fish production N.America L.America W.Europe E.Europe&C.Asia N.Africa&M.East S.S.Africa 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
  • 5. EU production projections EU27 Production: % change 2011-2020 vs. 2001-10 Coarse grains Rice Pigmeat Fish Poultry Whole Milk Powder Cheese Butter Wheat Beef Protein meals Skimmed Milk… Veget. Oils Sugar Oilseeds -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
  • 6. Rising non-food demand Share of global production used for biofuel feedstocks Percent 2020 2008-2010 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sugar cane Vegetable oil Coarse Grains Sugar beet Wheat
  • 7. Expanding global trade Share of export gains 2011-2020 N.America 13% Oceania 4% Asia&Pacific 38% L.America 27% S.S.Africa -1% W.Europe N.Africa & E.Europe&C. Asia 6% M.East 0% 11%
  • 8. EU production projections EU 27 Net position 2011- 2020 vs. 2001-2010: exports minus imports in thousand tonnes (absolute difference) Whole Milk Powder Skimmed Milk Powder Poultry Cheese Butter Pigmeat Beef Oilseeds Rice Wheat Fish 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Protein meals Coarse grains Sugar Veget. Oils -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0
  • 9. Good global prospects but rising… …production costs …market/price volatility …resource constraints …and slowing productivity growth
  • 10. Rising production costs • FACEPA and agri- benchmark farm level analysis • Variable costs have gone up – mainly energy and feed • Impacts different by farm type and prod’n structure • Costs have risen less than input prices (farmers adjust) • Farm income rises with farm size
  • 11. Greater market/price volatility… • Weather (climate change) • Low stocks • Energy prices • Exchange rates • Inelastic demand • Ag and trade policy
  • 12. Resource constraints: water shortages • 47% population under severe water stress by 2050 • Irrigation costs rise with energy prices • Water pricing to agriculture will increase • 60% freshwater withdrawals by agriculture (2010) • 40% freshwater withdrawals used by agriculture (2050)
  • 13. The need to increase productivity growth • Growing demand for food and fuel • Increasing competition for land • Important water constraints • Uncertain impacts of climate change Improving agricultural productivity growth is not an option to consider - it is an essential requirement fro increasing global food supplies on a sustainable basis.
  • 14. Slower agricultural TFP growth Average annual growth rate by period (%)
  • 15. Slower projected global output growth… Global agricultural production growth 3.0% 2.60% 2.0% 1.70% 1.0% 0.0% 2001-2010 2011-2020
  • 16. Productivity and Sustainability • Need to reduce waste/carbon footprint (sustainable consumption and production) • Need to increase productivity in a more sustainable manner • Productivity and sustainability can be complimentary outcomes •Precision farming (fertilizer/crop protection) •More efficient water use (drip irrigation) •Eco-system approaches (intensify production, conserve organic matter)
  • 17. Governments can help Governments need to link policies to priorities • Invest in innovation • Improve sustainability • Facilitate producer risk management
  • 18. EU policy reforms Since 1992 several reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy have aimed at reducing distortions to production and trade in agriculture Post 2013: • Reduce market distortions • Strengthen AKS systems • Target environmental policies
  • 19. OECD Trade and Agriculture www.agri-outlook.org