The expert consultation on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato was a workshop organized by the Global Crop Diversity Trust in collaboration with CIP and took place from the 22nd – 24th of February 2012.
3. 3 • 3/21/11
The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability
4. 4 • 3/21/11
Historical impacts on food security
Observed changes in growing
season temperature for crop
growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
% Yield impact
for wheat
5. 5 • 3/21/11
Crop suitability is changing
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
6. 6 • 3/21/11
Food security is at risk
In order to meet
global demands,
we will need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.
7. 7 • 3/21/11
Message 1:
In the coming decades, climate change
and other global trends will endanger
agriculture, food security, and rural
livelihoods.
8. 8 • 3/21/11
Ecosystem valuation
Average price in voluntary
carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
2006 2007 2008
Spot the
livestock! Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system
9. 9 • 3/21/11
CO2 Fertilisation
• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great
potential for some crops
10. 10 • 3/21/11
Message 2:
With new challenges also come
new opportunities.
13. 13 • 3/21/11
CCAFS objectives
• Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and food
systems.
• Support the inclusion of agricultural
issues in climate change policies,
and of climate issues in
agricultural policies, at all levels.
14. 14 • 3/21/11
The CCAFS Framework
Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and
policies for:
Improved
2.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Environmental Improved
Change Health Rural
3.Adaptation through Managing Climate Livelihoods
Risk Improved
4.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Food
Security
4. Integration for Decision Making Trade
•Linking Knowledge with Action - of f s a
nd Sy
•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and nergie
s
Planning
•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
Enhanced adaptive capacity
in agricultural, natural
resource management, and
food systems
15. 15 • 3/21/11
THE VISION
To adapt farming
systems, we need
to:
• Close the
Progressive
production gap
by effectively
using current
technologies,
practices and
policies
• Increase the
Adaptation
bar: develop new
ways to increase
food production
potential
• Enable policies
and institutions,
from the farm to
national level
16. 16 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
Objective One:
Adapted farming systems via integrated
technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two:
Breeding strategies to address abiotic and
biotic stresses induced by future climates
Objective Three:
Identification, conservation, and deployment of
species and genetic diversity
17. 17 • 3/21/11
Why do we need breeding?
• For starters, we have novel climates
18. 18 • 3/21/11
Development of strategies
Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed
actively engaged in research design; one regional and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the
breeding strategy workshop involving regional likely future conditions in terms of the economic,
decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered social and cultural benefits expected; findings
in each of 3 initial target regions (2011) presented in summary report and journal article.
Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds
Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions University), NARES scientists (2014)
coordinated in development of climate-proofed
crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies
jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions and plans of action for crop improvement
outlining coordinated plans for breeding. (2012) developed, incorporating portfolio of national,
regional and global priorities; findings presented in
summary report (2015)
Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling
approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and
abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies
findings presented in summary report and at key identified and socialized with funding bodies,
stakeholders meetings ; including modelling national and international organizations,
approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate universities and other actors; findings presented in
change and the effects of adaptation technologies summary report and policy briefs (including
such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting percentage of total food crop production (in recent
on water availability for crops and their productivity history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies)
under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013). (2015)
19. 19 • 3/21/11
Dissemination of strategies
Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held
with key stakeholders resulting in
mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in
workplans and existing breeding programs.
(2015)
Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and
national policy briefs produced for
investments in climate-proofed crop breeding
initiatives (2015)
Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing
meeting per region based on the briefs in
1.2.2.2.
Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations
provided to national agencies, policy makers
and key actors in the agricultural sector on
how to target strategies to enable equitable
access by different social groups (e.g.
pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by
women and men. (2015)
21. 21 • 3/21/11
Initial Analysis of Vulnerability
Andy Jarvis
“Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop
ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
6-8 December 2011
22. 22 • 3/21/11
Climate change is not new…but is
accelerating
23. 23 • 3/21/11
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
• 21 global climate models in the world, based on
atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a
touch of astrology
• Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into
the future
• Run using different emissions scenarios
29. 29 • 3/21/11
Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season
is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050
Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
31. 31 • 3/21/11
DIRECT EFFECTS:
elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato
crops
Leaf Processes Increased CO2
Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period
-substantial increment
•Down regulation when grown continuously
in elevated CO2
Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2
•Expected to increase WUE
Leaf Protein, •Contradictory responses, probably
associated to cultivar differences
Chlorophyll content
Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to
elevated CO2
32. 32 • 3/21/11
Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on
potato crops
Process Increased CO2
Changes in plant growth •Stimulates both above- and below-ground
biomass (early growing season)
and development •Period of active plant growth ends
prematurely
•Senescence begins earlier
•Limited growth rates towards the end of
growing season
Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude
varies with cultivar and growing conditions
•Increase number of tubers
Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content
•Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid
content
33. 33 • 3/21/11
Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops
•Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation
•Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus
reducing potato growth
•High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate
photosynthates to the tuber
•Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root,
stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number
•Offset the CO2 fertilization effect
34. 34 • 3/21/11
INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases
Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of
potato production today would be
lost to pests
Major factors likely to •increased CO2,
influence plant disease •heavy and unseasonal rains,
severity and spread •increased humidity, droughts
and hurricanes,
•warmer winter temperatures
35. 35 • 3/21/11
Changes in the •alterations in the geographical distribution of
climate are expected species,
to produce •increase overwintering,
•changes in population growth rates,
•increase the number of generations per
season,
•extension of the development season,
•changes in crop-pest synchrony,
•increase risk of invasion by migration pests,
•may cause the appearance of new
thermophilic species,
•changes in the physiology of
pathogens/insects and host plants,
•changes in host plants resistance to
infection/infestation,
•critical temperature/infection threshold,
•modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/
or host susceptibility
37. 37 • 3/21/11
Potato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80 Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
38. 38 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability and Presence
39. 39 • 3/21/11
Potato Current Climatic Constraints
42. 42 • 3/21/11
Potato Impacts by Countries
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa
BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe
CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania
CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America
CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia
CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio
43. 43 • 3/21/11
Late Blight (LB)
Warmer temperatures with
some humidity in higher
grounds will increase the
presence of potato late blight.
High incidence of LB in the
future (2050) above 3000
masl (highlighted in the map)
where it is virtually absent
today
44. Potato tuber moth (PTM)
44 • 3/21/11
PTM is actually present in
interandean valleys and the
coastal areas of the Andes
PTM is expected to climb as
well due to climate change
48. 48 • 3/21/11
Impact of climate change on
CWR
• Assessment of shifts in
distribution range under climate
change
• Wild potatoes
• Wild African Vigna
• Wild peanuts
50. 50 • 3/21/11
Summary Impacts
• 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of
these species predicted to go extinct
• Most species losing over 50% of their range
size
• Wild peanuts were the most affected group,
with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go
extinct
• For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were
predicted to go extinct
• Vigna was the least affected of the three
groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the
genus
51. 51 • 3/21/11
Wild relative species
A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
Florunner, with no root-
knot nematode resistance
COAN, with population
density of root-knot
nematodes >90% less
than in Florunner
52. Impact of Climate Change – Wild
52 • 3/21/11
Peanuts
Change in area Predicted state
Species
of distribution (%) in 2055
batizocoi -100 Extinct
cardenasii -100 Extinct
correntina -100 Extinct
decora -100 Extinct
diogoi -100 Extinct
duranensis -91 Threatened
glandulifera -17 Stable
helodes -100 Extinct
hoehnii -100 Extinct
k empff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatened
k uhlmannii -100 Extinct
magna -100 Extinct
microsperma -100 Extinct
palustris -100 Extinct
praecox -100 Extinct
stenosperma -86 Threatened
villosa -51 Near-Threatened
53. 53 • 3/21/11
CWR supporting adaptation but
also threatened by climate change
54. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change
54• 3/21/11
Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives
project
56. 56 • 3/21/11
Why Gap Analysis?
• Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and
geographical diversity
• Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well
as defining which species should be collected and where
these collections should be focused
• Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ
conservation system is correctly holding the genetic
diversity of a particular genepool
64. 64 • 3/21/11
Taxon-level and genepool level
priorities
65. Wild Vigna collecting priorities
65 • 3/21/11
• Spatial analysis on
current conserved
materials
• *Gaps* in current
collections
• Definition and
prioritisation of
collecting areas
• 8 100x100km cells
to complete
collections of 23
wild Vigna priority
species
66. 66 • 3/21/11
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73. 73 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa
BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe
CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania
CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America
CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia
CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
Notes de l'éditeur
For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked
RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
As temperature increases, an erratic humidity, the likelihood of pest and diseases is expected to augment. Late blight is a devastating water mold that affect potato and one of the main causes of the well-known Great Irish famine. LB is climbing up the Andean highlands already. This slides shows the scenario for 2050 for Peru and the second one highlights the areas above 3000 m asl where today is virtually absent and where only poor farmers crop the land.
PTM is another major potato disease of global importance. The prognosis for the near future is not good, as can be seen from the scenarios mapped.