The expert consultation on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato was a workshop organized by the Global Crop Diversity Trust in collaboration with CIP and took place from the 22nd – 24th of February 2012.

1. Developing Climate Smart Crops for a 2030 world
Climate smart crops for 2030

2. 2 • 3/21/11
The
Challenge

3. 3 • 3/21/11
The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability

4. 4 • 3/21/11
Historical impacts on food security
Observed changes in growing
season temperature for crop
growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
% Yield impact
for wheat

5. 5 • 3/21/11
Crop suitability is changing
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

6. 6 • 3/21/11
Food security is at risk
In order to meet
global demands,
we will need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.

7. 7 • 3/21/11
Message 1:
In the coming decades, climate change
and other global trends will endanger
agriculture, food security, and rural
livelihoods.

8. 8 • 3/21/11
Ecosystem valuation
Average price in voluntary
carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
2006 2007 2008
Spot the
livestock! Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system

9. 9 • 3/21/11
CO2 Fertilisation
• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great
potential for some crops

10. 10 • 3/21/11
Message 2:
With new challenges also come
new opportunities.

11. 11 • 3/21/11
Program
Design

12. 12 • 3/21/11
CCAFS: the partnership

13. 13 • 3/21/11
CCAFS objectives
• Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and food
systems.
• Support the inclusion of agricultural
issues in climate change policies,
and of climate issues in
agricultural policies, at all levels.

14. 14 • 3/21/11
The CCAFS Framework
Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and
policies for:
Improved
2.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Environmental Improved
Change Health Rural
3.Adaptation through Managing Climate Livelihoods
Risk Improved
4.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Food
Security
4. Integration for Decision Making Trade
•Linking Knowledge with Action - of f s a
nd Sy
•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and nergie
s
Planning
•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
Enhanced adaptive capacity
in agricultural, natural
resource management, and
food systems

15. 15 • 3/21/11
THE VISION
To adapt farming
systems, we need
to:
• Close the
Progressive
production gap
by effectively
using current
technologies,
practices and
policies
• Increase the
Adaptation
bar: develop new
ways to increase
food production
potential
• Enable policies
and institutions,
from the farm to
national level

16. 16 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
Objective One:
Adapted farming systems via integrated
technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two:
Breeding strategies to address abiotic and
biotic stresses induced by future climates
Objective Three:
Identification, conservation, and deployment of
species and genetic diversity

17. 17 • 3/21/11
Why do we need breeding?
• For starters, we have novel climates

18. 18 • 3/21/11
Development of strategies
Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed
actively engaged in research design; one regional and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the
breeding strategy workshop involving regional likely future conditions in terms of the economic,
decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered social and cultural benefits expected; findings
in each of 3 initial target regions (2011) presented in summary report and journal article.
Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds
Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions University), NARES scientists (2014)
coordinated in development of climate-proofed
crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies
jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions and plans of action for crop improvement
outlining coordinated plans for breeding. (2012) developed, incorporating portfolio of national,
regional and global priorities; findings presented in
summary report (2015)
Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling
approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and
abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies
findings presented in summary report and at key identified and socialized with funding bodies,
stakeholders meetings ; including modelling national and international organizations,
approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate universities and other actors; findings presented in
change and the effects of adaptation technologies summary report and policy briefs (including
such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting percentage of total food crop production (in recent
on water availability for crops and their productivity history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies)
under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013). (2015)

19. 19 • 3/21/11
Dissemination of strategies
Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held
with key stakeholders resulting in
mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in
workplans and existing breeding programs.
(2015)
Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and
national policy briefs produced for
investments in climate-proofed crop breeding
initiatives (2015)
Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing
meeting per region based on the briefs in
1.2.2.2.
Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations
provided to national agencies, policy makers
and key actors in the agricultural sector on
how to target strategies to enable equitable
access by different social groups (e.g.
pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by
women and men. (2015)

20. 20 • 3/21/11

21. 21 • 3/21/11
Initial Analysis of Vulnerability
Andy Jarvis
“Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop
ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
6-8 December 2011

22. 22 • 3/21/11
Climate change is not new…but is
accelerating

23. 23 • 3/21/11
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
• 21 global climate models in the world, based on
atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a
touch of astrology
• Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into
the future
• Run using different emissions scenarios

24. 24 • 3/21/11

25. 25 • 3/21/11

26. 26 • 3/21/11
Changes in Average and
Variability around the mean
+
Climate
Baseline
_
Timescale
Short (change in baseline and variability) Long

27. 27 • 3/21/11
Temperatures rise….

28. 28 • 3/21/11
Changes in rainfall…

29. 29 • 3/21/11
Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season
is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050
Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.

30. 30 • 3/21/11
Projected Climate: Andes

31. 31 • 3/21/11
DIRECT EFFECTS:
elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato
crops
Leaf Processes Increased CO2
Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period
-substantial increment
•Down regulation when grown continuously
in elevated CO2
Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2
•Expected to increase WUE
Leaf Protein, •Contradictory responses, probably
associated to cultivar differences
Chlorophyll content
Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to
elevated CO2

32. 32 • 3/21/11
Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on
potato crops
Process Increased CO2
Changes in plant growth •Stimulates both above- and below-ground
biomass (early growing season)
and development •Period of active plant growth ends
prematurely
•Senescence begins earlier
•Limited growth rates towards the end of
growing season
Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude
varies with cultivar and growing conditions
•Increase number of tubers
Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content
•Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid
content

33. 33 • 3/21/11
Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops
•Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation
•Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus
reducing potato growth
•High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate
photosynthates to the tuber
•Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root,
stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number
•Offset the CO2 fertilization effect

34. 34 • 3/21/11
INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases
Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of
potato production today would be
lost to pests
Major factors likely to •increased CO2,
influence plant disease •heavy and unseasonal rains,
severity and spread •increased humidity, droughts
and hurricanes,
•warmer winter temperatures

35. 35 • 3/21/11
Changes in the •alterations in the geographical distribution of
climate are expected species,
to produce •increase overwintering,
•changes in population growth rates,
•increase the number of generations per
season,
•extension of the development season,
•changes in crop-pest synchrony,
•increase risk of invasion by migration pests,
•may cause the appearance of new
thermophilic species,
•changes in the physiology of
pathogens/insects and host plants,
•changes in host plants resistance to
infection/infestation,
•critical temperature/infection threshold,
•modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/
or host susceptibility

36. 36 • 3/21/11
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

37. 37 • 3/21/11
Potato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80 Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

38. 38 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability and Presence

39. 39 • 3/21/11
Potato Current Climatic Constraints

40. 40 • 3/21/11 Potato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B

41. 41 • 3/21/11
Potato Breeding Priorities
Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative

42. 42 • 3/21/11
Potato Impacts by Countries
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa
BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe
CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania
CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America
CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia
CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio

43. 43 • 3/21/11
Late Blight (LB)
 Warmer temperatures with
some humidity in higher
grounds will increase the
presence of potato late blight.
 High incidence of LB in the
future (2050) above 3000
masl (highlighted in the map)
where it is virtually absent
today

44. Potato tuber moth (PTM)
44 • 3/21/11
 PTM is actually present in
interandean valleys and the
coastal areas of the Andes
 PTM is expected to climb as
well due to climate change

45. © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
The critical role of crop wild relatives in
45 • 3/21/11
ensuring long-term food security and
their need for conservation

46. Why conserve CWR diversity?
46 • 3/21/11
Use!!
234 papers cited
Maxted and Kell, 2009
• Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase
• Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999

47. 47 • 3/21/11
Threats

48. 48 • 3/21/11
Impact of climate change on
CWR
• Assessment of shifts in
distribution range under climate
change
• Wild potatoes
• Wild African Vigna
• Wild peanuts

49. 49 • 3/21/11

50. 50 • 3/21/11
Summary Impacts
• 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of
these species predicted to go extinct
• Most species losing over 50% of their range
size
• Wild peanuts were the most affected group,
with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go
extinct
• For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were
predicted to go extinct
• Vigna was the least affected of the three
groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the
genus

51. 51 • 3/21/11
Wild relative species
A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
Florunner, with no root-
knot nematode resistance
COAN, with population
density of root-knot
nematodes >90% less
than in Florunner

52. Impact of Climate Change – Wild
52 • 3/21/11
Peanuts
Change in area Predicted state
Species
of distribution (%) in 2055
batizocoi -100 Extinct
cardenasii -100 Extinct
correntina -100 Extinct
decora -100 Extinct
diogoi -100 Extinct
duranensis -91 Threatened
glandulifera -17 Stable
helodes -100 Extinct
hoehnii -100 Extinct
k empff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatened
k uhlmannii -100 Extinct
magna -100 Extinct
microsperma -100 Extinct
palustris -100 Extinct
praecox -100 Extinct
stenosperma -86 Threatened
villosa -51 Near-Threatened

53. 53 • 3/21/11
CWR supporting adaptation but
also threatened by climate change

54. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change
54• 3/21/11
Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives
project

55. © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
55 • 3/21/11
How well conserved are crop
wild relatives?
Gap Analysis

56. 56 • 3/21/11
Why Gap Analysis?
• Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and
geographical diversity
• Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well
as defining which species should be collected and where
these collections should be focused
• Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ
conservation system is correctly holding the genetic
diversity of a particular genepool

57. 57 • 3/21/11
An example in Phaseolus

58. 58 • 3/21/11
Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic

59. 59 • 3/21/11
Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon

60. 60 • 3/21/11
Conserved ex situ richness versus potential

61. 61 • 3/21/11
Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic

62. 62 • 3/21/11
“Validation”: The man versus the
machine

63. 63 • 3/21/11
Model priorities versus expert priorities

64. 64 • 3/21/11
Taxon-level and genepool level
priorities

65. Wild Vigna collecting priorities
65 • 3/21/11
• Spatial analysis on
current conserved
materials
• *Gaps* in current
collections
• Definition and
prioritisation of
collecting areas
• 8 100x100km cells
to complete
collections of 23
wild Vigna priority
species

66. 66 • 3/21/11
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67. 67 • 3/21/11

68. 68 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.4 Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 2.4 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 100
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 300
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 10.2
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 1500
Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 2760
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.8

69. 69 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence

70. 70 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints

71. 71 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B

72. 72 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities
Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative

73. 73 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa
BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe
CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania
CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America
CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia
CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe