1. Managing Reform in Indonesia
From Tsunami Recovery to UKP4
Decision Science in Practice
Kuntoro Mangkusubroto Public Lecture
Jakarta, 6th September 2013

2. 6th Sept 2013 2
The Story of My LifeThe Story of My LifeThe Story of My LifeThe Story of My Life
(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)(Lifelong Love Affair with Decision Science)

3. 6th Sept 2013 3
DECISION SCIENCE IS ABOUT
Choices withChoices withChoices withChoices with consequencesconsequencesconsequencesconsequences
ProcedureProcedureProcedureProcedure to pick theto pick theto pick theto pick the
“best”“best”“best”“best” choicechoicechoicechoice

4. DECISION AND DELIVERY
Delivery
produce real results
A set of Right Decisions
Real Results
6th Sept 2013 4

5. THE CHOICES
6th Sept 2013 5
Question
Event 1
Probability 1
Strategy 1
Strategy n
Event j
Probability j
Outcome
1
Outcome
j
Maximum
Expected Utility

6. THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 6
With
Opponent
Without
Opponent
(Competitive)
(Nature)

7. THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 7
With
Opponent
(Competitive)
Friendly /
Cooperative
Negotiation
(saddle point)
Hostile/non-cooperative
(zero sum)

8. B
B
THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 8
GAME!GAME!GAME!GAME!
A
VS
Strat. 1 Strat. 2 Strat. 3
Strat. 1
Strat. 2
Strat. 3
A
B

9. THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 9
Common Objective
(Coordination/
Cooperative)
Individual Objectives
(Multi games)
Groups Objectives
(Multi games)

10. THE ENVIRONMENT
6th Sept 2013 10
Strategy 1Strategy 1Strategy 1Strategy 1 StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy 2222
StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy
1111
StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy
2222
IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?
A
B

11. PRACTICES
6th Sept 2013 11
MessyMessyMessyMessy (complex,(complex,(complex,(complex,
chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite,…)chaotic, infinite,…)
Live with it!Live with it!Live with it!Live with it!
(the “best” choice)(the “best” choice)(the “best” choice)(the “best” choice)

12. REAL WORLD DECISION MAKING
6th Sept 2013 12
DecisionDecisionDecisionDecision
MakerMakerMakerMaker Analyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/Support
information
feedback
Complex
Dynamic
NegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiations
Infinite
Information
Information

13. 6th Sept 2013 13
IT ALL STARTED WITH…

14. 25 years long conflict
Aceh
6th Sept 2013 14
25 YEARS OF CONFLICT

15. 6th Sept 2013 15
SYNCHRONIZING OBJECTIVE
SIGNALS

16. DAMAGE ALONG ACEH-NIAS WAS
UNPRECEDENTED
6th Sept 2013 16
172,000 dead & missing
550,000 in temporary
shelters/tents
800 km
x 1-6 km
destroyed!

17. STRONG INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT TURNED
INTO EXTREME LOGISTIC MANAGEMENT
6th Sept 2013 17
900
International
Organizations
7.2
Billion USD
8,000
Volunteers
40
Countries
9
Mother
Ships
14
War Ships
Biggest military operation
in the last 50 years,
for non-military purpose

18. PLANNING FALLS BEHIND CHANGES
6th Sept 2013 18
• Build back, better!
• Local government capacity building
• Democratic environment
• Mandate/entrustment
Objective 2Objective 2Objective 2Objective 2
Objective 1Objective 1Objective 1Objective 1

19. NEGOTIATING UNDER SOVEREIGN INFLUENCE
THE CASE OF IPP IN 2000
6th Sept 2013 19
Geothermal Non- geothermal
Darajat
4.2 ¢/kwh
Paiton
6.9 ¢/kwh
• Process: out of court
• Find Anchor

20. EXTREME COMPLEXITY DECISION MAKING
6th Sept 2013 20
Political
EnvironmentSocial structure
and dynamics
“Problem
Definition”
Importance of
process
Actors and
Interplays

21. SOCIALLY INCLUSIVE DECISION MAKING
COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION FOR VILLAGE PLANNING
6th Sept 2013 21
Bottom-up
Planning

22. COMMUNITIES DECIDE IF THEIR AREA WILL BE REBUILT
WITH NEW LAND CONSOLIDATION OR KEPT AS IT WAS
6th Sept 2013 22
Houses built 6 months later, but
eventually the property market value
reaches 2-3 times higher

23. 23
BREAKTHROUGH IN FLOW OF FUNDS TO
FACILITATE EASE OF EXECUTION
Govt. of
Indonesia
36%NGO
33%
Bilateral &
Multilateral
donor
Total commitment
USD 6.7 Billion
Examples
Malahayati
seaport
Netherlands
Calang-
Meulaboh Road
Japan
Hospital in
Calang
Spain
Meulaboh
Seaport
Singapore
31%
6th Sept 2013

24. GROUPS OBJECTIVES IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT:
BUILDING TRUST THROUGH ACCOUNTABILITY
FROM THE CONVENTIONAL ASSET INVENTORY SYSTEM...…TO A HIGHLY ACCURATE…
GPS
coordinate
6th Sept 2013 24
GEOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION SYSTEM

25. THE CHALLENGES…
6th Sept 2013 25

26. THE RESULTS…
6th Sept 2013 26

27. A DEVELOPMENT PACE NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN
INDONESIAN HISTORY
6th Sept 2013 27

28. AMONG THE CHALLENGES…
6th Sept 2013 28
How to fight for adequate authorities?
Master Plan VS bottom up approach
Government ACTION VS Government ORCHESTRATION
Accelerating through FEEDBACK?
Coordination—NEGOTIATION ?

29. KEY LESSONS LEARNED FROM POST DISASTER
RECONSTRUCTION
6th Sept 2013 29
NEVER expect perfect results
Scrutinized FLEXIBILITY
No TRANSPARENCY no TRUST
INCLUSION is better planning
Accelerated
execution
MINIMIZED
feedback time=~

30. THE JOURNEY BACK TO JAKARTA
PRESIDENT’S DELIVERY UNIT
for Development Monitoring
and Oversight
(PDU or UKP4)
6th Sept 2013 30

31. IN 2009, THE PRESIDENT OF INDONESIA ESTABLISHED
THE FIRST DELIVERY UNIT OF THE WORLD’S BIGGEST
ARCHIPELAGO
“UKP4 is my
ears, eyes and
hands”
6th Sept 2013 31

32. CONSISTENCY AND SYNCHRONIZATION IN DELIVERING
THE VISION OF THE PRESIDENT
SYNCHRONISATION
CONSISTENCY
UKP4, Planning
Agency & MoF
ACTION PLAN 400+ National Priority Action Plans Annualy
6th Sept 2013 32

33. CONSISTENCY AND SYNCHRONIZATION IN DELIVERING
THE VISION OF THE PRESIDENT
6th Sept 2013 33
SYNCHRONISATION
CONSISTENCY
UKP4, Planning
Agency & MoF
ACTION PLAN 400+ National Priority Action Plans Annualy
Mission
Objectives
Criteria
=~
Targets

34. NATIONAL PRIORITIES OF THE REPUBLIC
NATIONAL
PRIORITIES
(2010 – 14)
Bureaucracy
Reform &
Governance
1
Education
2
Public Health
3
Poverty
Eradication
4
Food
Security
5
Infrastructure
6
Investment
and Business
Climate
7
Energy
8 Environment
and Disaster
Management
9
Disadvantaged,
Border, Outermost
and Post-Conflict
Regions
10 Culture,
Creativity and
Technological
Innovation
11
Others
+
6th Sept 2013 34

35. LEADERSHIP STYLE AND BEHAVIOR
6th Sept 2013 35
Ministers
The Parliamentarians
Regional Leaders
The Leaders

36. ASSUMPTION: COMMON OBJECTIVE
6th Sept 2013 36

37. 6th Sept 2013 37

38. THE POLITICS IN THE GOVERNMENT
Coordinating
Minister 1
Coordinating
Minister 2
Coordinating
Minister 3
Minister 1 Minister 2 Minister 3 Minister X
Governor 1 Governor XEchelon 1
Echelon 2
Echelon 1
Echelon 2
Echelon 1
Echelon 2
Head of
District 1
Mayor
Head of
District 2
Good
Hard
Difficult
Governor 2
Nearly
impossible
6th Sept 2013 38

39. 6th Sept 2013 39

40. IN REALITY…
6th Sept 2013 40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

41. GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEM TO ENSURE FIELD AND
REPORTING CONSISTENCY
(P100H-P13A1)
Pamsimas Kupang 10.17385 LS,
123.9773 BT
PLTU Kupang NTT
10.23872 LS, 123.49213 BT
(N8P43A1)
Pasar Tradisional Cimanggis
6,50538 LS 106,77531 BT
(P100H-P23A3)
Double Track Rel KA Serpong Maja
6 20’27,88’’ LS, 106 36’06,62’’ BT
(N6P29A3)
Pemeliharaan Jalan di Banda Aceh
Lambaro (road to the airport)
N6P28A1
PPS Lampulo Banda Aceh
5.586 LU, 95.318 BT
P100H-P13A10
Reaksi Cepat Bencana Malang
07°55.3509’ LS, 112°42.4924’ BT
(P100H-P44A2)
Jalan Tol Porong – Sidoarjo
07°30.362’ LS, 112°41.960’ BT
Jalan Tol Lintas Jawa
PLTU Pacitan
8 15’30’’ LS, 111 22’30’’ BT
10.000 MW
6th Sept 2013 41

42. ASSURING SYNCHRONIZATION AND CONSISTENCY
ACTION PLAN
MINISTRY/
AGENCY IN
CHARGE (MIC)
RELATED
AGENCY
CRITERIA FOR
SUCCESS
MEASUREMENT
OF SUCCESS
MEASUREMENT OF SUCCESS
D30, D50, D75, AND D100
%
ACHIEVE-
MENT
EXPLANA-
TION
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
N8P73: Construction of transportation infrastructure network and vehicle provision of intermodal and inter-islands transportation
Construction of
Floating Storage and
Receiving Unit (FSRU)
in North Sumatera,
West Java and East
Java
Ministry of
Energy and
Mining
Resources
Ministry of
Transport
West Java
Provincial
Government
Preparation
activities for
the
construction
of FSRT in
North
Sumatera,
West Java and
East Java
TARGET:
Execution of
monitoring
work for FSRU
construction
preparation in
North
Sumatera, West
Java and East
Java
TARGET B04: Establishment of
construction preparation monitoring
unit
B04:
100%
Contract
signed on
April 14,
2010
TARGET B06: Finalized SOP for FSRU
construction preparation monitoring
B06:
114%
22.82%
TARGET B08: Verification and
evaluation of FSRTU construction
barriers
B08: XX%
TARGET B10: Solution options for
identified barriers
B10: XX%
TARGET B12: Construction
preparation monitoring report
finalization
B12: XX%Realistic and measurable bi-monthly
targets are formatted together with
the MIC
Derives from Presidential
Directive 1/2010
Self
reported by
the MIC
MIC coordinates
other parties in
achieving the
target.
6th Sept 2013 42

43. DEBOTTLENECKING FLOATING STORAGE RECEIVING UNIT
(FSRU) JAKARTA
6th Sept 2013 43
Location:
Muara Karang, Jakarta Utara
Coordinate:
6.108559, 106.781239
Site Monitoring : 13th Oct 2010
Status:
• Fixed location to supply Muara
Karang Power Plant
• Ministry of Transport can not
issue Location Permit due to
hampered reccomendation
from the Governor of Jakarta
• Reclamation Mega Project in
North Jakarta hampered the
FSRU Project as well
PROBLEM

44. COMPLICATION IN COORDINATION
6th Sept 2013 44
Coord. Min
Economic Aff.
Coord. Min
People’s Welfare
Coord. Min
Politics, Legal
and Security Aff.
Min. of
Transport
Min. of Energy
and Mineral
Resources
Min. of
Environment
Min. of
Internal Affairs
Governor of
DKI Jakarta
No Permit
without EIA
(AMDAL)
No AMDAL without
Gov. Recommendation
Conflicting with
Reclamation
plan!!
No FSRU!
Jakarta will lose
60% power Escalation!Escalation!Escalation!Escalation!

45. ESCALATION LEADING TO EXECUTIVE DECISION
6th Sept 2013 45
“…I want the FSRU to
be finished in 2012…”

46. 6th Sept 2013 46
DEBOTTLENECKING FLOATING STORAGE RECEIVING UNIT
(FSRU) JAKARTA
Issues identified in Aug 2010
FSRU inaugurated in Dec 2012

47. RESULTS FOR THE NATION
6th Sept 2013 47
• Full on-stream 1 September 2013
(260 BBTUD)
• Fuel saving worth 2.4 million USD/day

48. MANY DOWN, MORE TO GO
• Donggi Senoro Gas Field
• Kalibaru New Port
• MRT Jakarta
• School Operational Assistance fund disbursement
• Sarulla Geothermal Power Plant
• Soekarno-Hatta Airport Expansion
• Certification of Fishing Ships “INKA MINA”
• National Strategy of Corruption Prevention and Eradication
• Public housing (RUSUNAWA) resettlement
• Implementing regulation for new Land Acquisition Law
• Railway governance regulation (IMO-TAC)
• National Agency of REDD+
• ONE MAP……and many more
6th Sept 2013 48

49. REAL WORLD DECISION MAKING
6th Sept 2013 49
DecisionDecisionDecisionDecision
MakerMakerMakerMaker Analyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/SupportAnalyst/Support
information
feedback
Complex
Dynamic
NegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiationsNegotiations
Simple
Information
Information

50. 6th Sept 2013 50
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL
• Serving the Decision Maker
• His choice and consequences
• Provide the “best” options
Ministries
/Regions
Tactical
Rooms
The President
International
Public
Others
Officials
Country
Leaders
Other leaders
Video/Audio
Conference
Ministries
/Regions
International
Public
Others
Executive
Room
Inbound
info center
Outbound
communication
center
IT Center /
support room
Ministries
/Regions
Ministries
/Regions
Tactical
Rooms
The President
InternationalInternational
PublicPublic
OthersOthers
Officials
Country
Leaders
Other leaders
Video/Audio
Conference
Ministries
/Regions
Ministries
/Regions
InternationalInternational
PublicPublic
OthersOthers
Executive
Room
Inbound
info center
Outbound
communication
center
IT Center /
support room

51. 6th Sept 2013 51
Thank youThank youThank youThank you