Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050)

Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050) Danila Medvedev, Russia All original content in this presentation is dedicated to public domain. No rights reserved, use in any way.

Presentation Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why think about the future? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Time periods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],? Post-singularity Singularity Pre-singularity Advanced future Immediate future Present Past

Immediate future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Advanced future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Pre-singularity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Industrial (1815) Atomic (1945) Computer (1963) Biotech (1990) Human changes (2010) AI (2030) Space (1957) Nano (2020) Robotics (2000)

Singularity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Time periods Some Singularitarians Post -s ingularity OK Transhumanists Singularity Very low Some sci-fi writers Pre -s ingularity Some (TF) Technology foresight, futurologists Advanced f uture Satisfactory Futurologists, corporate, think tanks Immediate f uture Validity Who? Time periods

Dissemination of visions Common folk Media Education Science fiction attitude to future future visions information availability Futurologists Transhumanist thinkers Think tanks / corporate centres Technology foresight Individual futurists

Information availability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Information availability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ I want unlimited scientific discovery, and I want unlimited applications... We want to live forever, and we're getting there ." “ I did not have sexual relations with that woman ...” — Bill Clinton, Millennium evening at the White House (October 1999) — Bill Clinton, at the conclusion of a press conference in the White House (January 26, 1998)

Information availability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Common folk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Attitude to future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Gradual adoption: cell phones ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Future visions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Who thinks about the future? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Science fiction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Futurology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Future Survey by WFS, 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Individual futurists ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Corporate centres, think tanks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

BT Exact Technologies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Technology foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

NISTEP predictions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Transhumanist thinkers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What hinders predictions? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Horizon problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Multiple factor forecasts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Future shock ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Synergy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Synergy Computing Communications AI Robotics Nanotechnology Biotechnology Singularity

Complexity and unpredictability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Technological determinism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The path to 2050 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 ?

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050)

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Editor's Notes