2. The “energy and CO 2 economy” Oil Biomass Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Primary Energy Liquids Direct combustion Industry and Manufacturing Mobility Final Energy Agriculture and Land Use Energy Energy Energy Buildings Power Generation

3. Our Energy System is Vast

4. . . . and heavily dependent on fossil fuels Global energy consumption * * BP Statistical Review of World Energy

5. Global Fossil Carbon Emissions Consumption (2006) 3.1 * billion tonnes 3.9 * billion tonnes 2.6 * billion tonnes * oil equivalent p.a. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 CO 2 Emissions, million tonnes Carbon p.a. CO2 emissions from gas flaring CO2 emissions from cement production CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption CO2 emissions from gas fuel consumption

6. E.ON 2.3 GW coal-fired power station at Scholven Coal fired power stations: > 1000 GW globally ~ 6.5 billion tonnes CO 2 per annum

7. Traffic Road transport: > 750 million light duty vehicles ~ 70 million trucks and buses > 250 million motorbikes ~ 5 billion tonnes CO 2 p.a.

8. Refineries Refineries: > 80 million barrels per day capacity ~ 1.1 billion tonnes of CO 2 per annum

9. Cement Cement: ~ 2 billion tonnes per annum production > 1.5 billion tonnes of CO 2 per annum

10. About half of all CO 2 emissions relate to buildings – heating, cooling, lighting, appliances, IT etc.

12. Middelgrunden Wind Farm, Copenhagen 100 GWhrs p.a. 0.0005 % of global electricity generation

13. Springerville Solar Generating Station, Arizona 8 GWhrs p.a. 0.00004 % of global electricity generation

14. Demand is accelerating

15. Existing oil and gas will not keep up with accelerating demand

16. More challenging reserves are being developed to help meet the accelerating demand

17. Coal use is growing strongly to help meet the accelerating demand

20. A new direction is needed The way we produce and use energy today is not sustainable

21. Global Energy Ladder (2005) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 GDP, US$ per capita (2000$, ppp) Energy, GJ per capita USA Italy Portugal Korea China

22. Future Direction ?? 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 GDP, US$ per capita (2000$, ppp) Energy, GJ per capita 20 th Century Trendline USA 2005 Italy 2005 Portugal 2005 38% of current global energy demand China

24. High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation. WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report

25. High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report 2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation. >> 550 ppm Trajectory Current “business as usual” trend, even with more renewable power, biofuels and energy efficiency improvements. << 550 ppm Trajectory An alternative trajectory will require concerted action at national and inter-national level. It must start now.

27. Options for change A further shift to natural gas Nuclear power Renewables Bio-products Carbon capture and storage Mass transportation Road transport Buildings Low energy appliances Doing things differently Energy conservation and efficiency (energy / unit GDP) Emission reduction (CO 2 / unit energy)

28. Pathways to 2050 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per capita, GJ Wealthy developed Developed Leading developing Developing Improving energy efficiency 2025 2050 Falling CO 2 emissions per unit of energy 2008

30. Evolution of technology 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1943: “ I think there is a world market may be for six computers ” Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM Dot.com boom: explosive growth of the internet, acceptance as an everyday part of life 1946: ENIAC unveiled 1964: IBM 360 1972: Xerox GUI and mouse 1982: IBM PC 2000: Cheap high speed computing 1991: www convention adopted 1990: Number of hosts exceeds 100’000 1983: Switch-over to TCP/IP 1972: @ first used 1969: ARPANET commissioned by DoD for research into networking 1961: First paper on packet-switching theory

31. The lifetime of energy infrastructure 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++ The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years Nuclear 30 – 60 years Coal power 45+ years Hydro 75+ years Gas turbines 25+ years Buildings 45+++ years

32. « Technology transfer »? 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Last vehicles on the road? New technologies in developed countries may arrive, mature and even decline before their widespread adoption in developing regions. First prototype First concept 1 million produced 16 million produced Production at 1000 cars/month 1 million per annum produced 21.5 million produced Production ends in Germany Production ends in Mexico Last vehicles on the road in the EU

33. Turnover takes time 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total vehicles, millions Large scale &quot;alternative&quot; vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per annum and grows at 20% p.a. t hereafter. Total a lternative v ehicles Total t raditional v ehicles Annual total vehicle growth of 2% p.a. Annual vehicle production growth of 2% p.a.

34. Pathway to 2050 for the EU (illustrative) A significant shift required in both “energy per GDP” and “CO 2 per unit of energy used” 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per capita, GJ 1971 1990 2025 2050 Now CO 2 per energy unit used, t / TJ Slope = Energy per GDP Improving energy efficiency

35. EU Today Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle * USD 2000 (ppp) 460 million people 52 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 24 K per capita* 3.9 billion tonnes energy CO 2

36. EU 2025 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle * USD 2000 (ppp) 471 million people 49 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 39 K per capita* 3.1 billion tonnes energy CO 2

37. EU 2050 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle * USD 2000 (ppp) 460 million people 42 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 75 K per capita* 1.7 billion tonnes energy CO 2

38. Pathway to 2050 for the USA (illustrative) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per capita, GJ A significant shift required in both “energy per GDP” and “CO 2 per unit of energy used” 2025 2050 1971 CO 2 per energy unit used, t / TJ 1990 Now Slope = Energy per GDP Improving energy efficiency

39. USA Today Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle 300 million people 66.5 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 36 K per capita* 5.8 billion tonnes energy CO 2 * USD 2000 (ppp)

40. USA 2025 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle 335 million people 65.5 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 57 K per capita* 4.9 billion tonnes energy CO 2 * USD 2000 (ppp)

41. USA 2050 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle 400 million people 60.1 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 88 K per capita* 2.4 billion tonnes energy CO 2 * USD 2000 (ppp)

42. USA Power Generation 2004 2025 2050 35 EJ 30 25 20 15 10 5

43. USA Mobility – Doing more with less 2004 2025 2050 35 30 EJ 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 trillion-kms 4.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 trillion-kms 5.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 trillion-kms 5.3

44. US Milestones – Energy Efficiency 2025 2050 Current rate is ~ 1.7% p.a. Achieved significant efficiency gains , with energy use per GDP improving by nearly 3% annually. Continue to achieve significant energy efficiency gains at a rate of 2.6% p.a.

46. US Milestones – Carbon capture & storage 2025 2050 Most coal fired power stations in the USA are using carbon capture and storage . Commercialised coal power generation with carbon capture and storage and have some 60 or more plants in operation.

47. US Milestones – Nuclear 2025 2050 Gained full public acceptance of nuclear power as a viable zero-carbon power generation option and restarted long term growth in this industry. Expanded the role of nuclear in power generation, with some 100 new facilities in operation.

48. US Milestones – Vehicles 2025 2050 Vehicle efficiency now over twice that of 2004. Majority of light-duty vehicles either electric or plug-in hybrid (or hydrogen fuel cell). On-the road vehicle efficiency is now steadily improving, up 7 mpg vs. 2004 Electricity and/or hydrogen capable vehicles entering the fleet .

49. US Milestones – Automotive Fuels 2025 2050 Advanced bio-fuels and electricity have reached a level of more than 12% in the transport sector. A range of alternative vehicle fuels such as advanced bio-fuels, electricity and hydrogen in everyday use and making up some 70+% of road transport fuel.

50. A world of energy nationalism A world of emerging coalitions Accelerated structural & regulatory change Reactive structural & regulatory change

55. Consequences for energy CO 2 emissions Late reactions Early actions Europe North America Asia & Oceania - Developed Asia & Oceania - Developing Latin America Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

57. Blueprints is stabilising at 550 ppm CO 2 ; Scramble reaches 683 ppm CO 2 in 2100, . . . . . . but still rising at 3 ppm each year Source: MIT

58. Blueprints is stabilising at 630 ppm CO 2 e; Scramble passes 1000 ppm CO 2 e in 2100 Source: MIT

59. Expected temperature rises start to diverge after 2030 IPCC: mean temperature in 2005 is around 0.5°C warmer than pre-industrial (1750), and 0.74°C warmer than 100 years ago (1906).

60. . . . but the debate is shifting rapidly IPCC 3 rd AR Hadley G8 Report IPCC 4 th AR Jim Hansen <550 ppm 450 ppm 400 ppm 350 ppm ?? 2001 2005 2007 2008 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

63. Steep declines or overshooting?

64. What is a plausible phase-out profile for fossil emissions under 500 ppm CO 2 e? Arguments for a coal-then-gas-then-oil trajectory: coal and gas can have CCS and can be substituted for nuclear and renewables in electricity; coal is more CO2-intensive; gas needs eliminating from end-users; oil is in transport where electric vehicles and biofuels will take time to develop. The downside is the regional dimension: China and India need the coal. Coal is phased out first. Gas then needs phasing out in only 5 years! Oil has a longer tail due to transport needs