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Thinking
Dave Davis PMP, PgMP, PBA
Icebreaker
A Little About My Career
• Alliance Data Project Manager –
Enhanced Mobile Loyalty Suite
• Nationwide Insurance – Benefits
Realization Advisor
• Project Manager for Consumer
Energy
• Program Manager for AT&T
eBonding Projects
• Adjunct Instructor
• Knowledge Management Advisor
• University Academic Advisor
And yes…..
Baworld adapting to whats happening
PMI Talent Triangle(SM)
Hard skills
Certification
Common Glossary
Application of Best Practices
Soft skills
Behavior Changes
Influence
Advisement
Emotional Intelligence
Decision Making
Acumen
Products and Services
Quality
Process / Workflow
How We Think People Think
• It’s a question of focus
Facts Logic Truth
Baworld adapting to whats happening
Basic Functions of a Human
Thinking
Make sense
of the world
• Analyzing
• Judging
• Comparing
• Synthesis
Feeling
Tells us how
we are
doing
• Happy
• Sad
• Included /
Excluded
• Stressed /
Calm
Wanting
Drives us to
act the way
we do
• The Rule of
Remarkability
• Goals
• Purpose
• Agenda
Baworld adapting to whats happening
Analytics vs. Analysis
• is a multi-dimensional discipline.
– There is extensive use of mathematics and statistics, the
use of descriptive techniques and predictive models to
gain valuable knowledge from data - data analysis.
– The insights from data are used to recommend action or
to guide decision making rooted in business context.
– Analytics is not so much concerned with individual
analyses or analysis steps, but with the entire
methodology.
– There is an increasing use of the term advanced
analytics, typically used to describe the technical aspects
of analytics, especially predictive modeling, machine
learning techniques, and neural networks.
• Analytics
Analytics vs. Analysis
• is the process of breaking a complex topic or
substance into smaller parts to gain a better
understanding of it
– Business Analysis is the practice of enabling change
in an organizational context, by defining needs and
recommending solutions that deliver value to
stakeholders.
– Requirements analysis – encompasses those tasks that
go into determining the needs or conditions to meet for
a new or altered product, taking account of the possibly
conflicting requirements of the various stakeholders,
such as beneficiaries or users.
– Traditionally involves creating a null hypothesis and
then validating that with data or test results.
• Analysis
Baworld adapting to whats happening
DIKW Model
What are Analytics
• Discovery and communication
of meaningful patterns in data.
• analytics relies on the
simultaneous application of
statistics, data extraction
tools, and operations research
to quantify performance.
• Analytics often favors data
visualization to communicate
insight (knowledge)
Critical Thinking Knowledge Skills
To be a professional of any kind in
the next 20 years, or even an
enlightened citizen, will require a
complicated set of thinking skills,
more than reading and writing.
The world isn’t filtered as it once
was. Kids are thinking. What we’re
trying to do is have them do it well.
PeterScharf,Professorof SocialEcology
Circumstance 1
• Observations
– You wake up in the morning and the lawn is
wet.
– You do not have a sprinkling system, hose, or
other watering capability.
– The street is also wet
• What can you guess happened last night?
Circumstance 1 Conclusion
• It rained
overnight
Circumstance 2
• Sara and her Mother drove to the
computer store. Sara had her money she
had received for Christmas and the money
she had saved. She waited a long time for
this day. Finally, she would be able to look
up all the things she needed for school on
a computer and email her friends.
• What happened next?
Circumstance 2 Conclusion
• Sara bought a
computer
Circumstance 3
• If x = 4
• And if y = 1
• Then what does 2x + y equal?
Circumstance 3 Conclusion
• 2x + y = 9
• 2*4+1=9
Be Careful
• The inferential process can be valid even if
the premise is false:
• Lets use the deduction sited below:
– There is no such thing as drought in the West.
– California is in the West.
– California need never make plans to deal with
a drought.
Be Careful
In the example, though the inferential process itself
is valid, the conclusion is false because the
premise, There is no such thing as drought in the
West, is false. A syllogism yields a false conclusion
if either of its propositions is false. A syllogism like
this is particularly insidious because it looks so
very logical–it is, in fact, logical. But whether in
error or malice, if either of the propositions above
is wrong, then a policy decision based upon it
(California need never make plans to deal with a
drought) probably would fail to serve the public
interest.
Six Thinking Hats For Success
Green Hat
the creative side:
alternatives, out-of-
the-box ideas. What
additional
possibilities are
there? What else
can we try?
Blue Hat
the organizing view:
Manage the thinking
process. How should
we think about this?
Red Hat
The emotional view:
feelings, hunches,
intuition. What’s
your gut
reaction? How do
you feel about this?
Black Hat
The downsides: caution,
difficulties, weaknesses,
barriers. Why can’t we do
this? What might not
work? What are the
dangers and risks?
White Hat
Facts and
figures. What
information are
available and
needed?
Yellow Hat
The upsides: benefits,
values, positive
outcomes. How can we
do this? What are the
potential returns? Why
is it worth doing?
Baworld adapting to whats happening
• preconceived judgment or opinion
• an adverse opinion or leaning
formed without just grounds or
before sufficient knowledge
• This is a characteristic based on an
individual opinions
Prejudice
November 2008 David L Davis, PMP ©
28
• deviation of the expected value of a
statistical estimate from the quantity
it estimates
• systematic error introduced into
sampling or testing by selecting or
encouraging one outcome or answer
over others
• This is an individual characteristic
based on altering things to
determine an outcome
Bias
November 2008 David L Davis, PMP ©
29
Major Concepts
• Data / Information Context
– Lake
– Filter, sort, view
• Pattern Matching
– Guessing
– Trends
• Historical (Lagging)
• Predictive (Leading)
• Prescriptive (Multiple Action)
Analytics
Business Intelligence
• Demographics / categories
• Terms such as profiling,
segmentation, or clustering, and
they fall under descriptive analytics.
• What is the behavior and who is
doing it?
Descriptive Analytics
• This is all about knowing what is going on,
the more real-time the better.
• What is the past 30-day response rate and
conversion rate for a specific campaign?
How did the response curve move through
time? When is the optimal day part for
email blast or ad broadcast? What is the
ROI? What channel and product offering is
the winning combination?
• This can be in a form of dashboard
reporting or any other conventional
reporting, but many call it simply
“analytics”.
Optimization Analytics
• Requires a complex type of modeling,
where “what if” type of questions are
answered.
• What if we spend more money on mass
media than on direct channel? What would
be the most optimal combination of
marketing spending that yields maximum
return? What would be the ultimate ROI?
This type of question is typically answered
by marketing agencies, and it involves
econometrics modeling.
• This type of analytics calls for different
types of data in comparison to typical
predictive modeling for 1-to-1 marketing,
but the whole process is also called
analytics.
Predictive Analytics
• we start asking questions in future tenses. Who
will respond to this campaign, and for what
product and through what channel?
• What are the potential values of each customer
and prospect? Who will stop subscription of
your service, and when would that be? When it
comes to predictive analytics, we need carefully
structured statistical models, which will return
“scores” that define likelihood of customers
behaving a certain way in the future.
• In terms of complexity, this is the most
demanding type of analytics, where trained
statisticians work with specifically designed
marketing databases with all kinds of custom
variables.
Prescriptive Analytics
• The emerging technology of prescriptive analytics goes
beyond descriptive and predictive models by
recommending one or more courses of action -- and
showing the likely outcome of each decision.
– "Prescriptive analytics is a type of predictive analytics,“
– "It's basically when we need to prescribe an action, so the
business decision-maker can take this information and
act.“
– Prescriptive analytics doesn't predict one possible future,
but rather "multiple futures" based on the decision-
maker's actions.
• In addition, prescriptive analytics requires a predictive
model with two additional components: actionable data
and a feedback system that tracks the outcome
produced by the action taken.
• "Since a prescriptive model is able to predict the
possible consequences based on different choice of
action, it can also recommend the best course of action
for any pre-specified outcome"
Adapting to what's happening
Company
Data
Recording
Data
Tactical
Analytics
Predictive
Analytics
Social
Media
Sentiment
Strategic
Analytics
How many we
sold
How many we
sold last year
How many
we’ll sell next
quarter
How people
feel about
them
Steve Lucas, SAP's SVP of database technology
Behavior Change
based on
Analytics
Thinking
• Can be considered an open-minded
process of:
– discovery and understanding
– analysis and application
– synthesis and evaluation
• Grouping Information based on data
• Extracting Knowledge from
Information
• Applying wisdom using Knowledge
Reasoning
• The relationship between thinking
and overall human genetics in the
application of reasoning between
what is known and what is unknown.
• Different types of reasoning:
– Inductive reasoning
– Deductive reasoning
– Predictive reasoning
Human Deficiencies
• As human beings we are blessed with the
ability to be creative and random in our ability
to determine a root cause analysis.
• However this ability also comes with several
defects that can hamper good analysis.
– Distinguishing between a symptom and a cause
– Dealing with our own bias and prejudices as a
factor in the root cause analysis, not the factor.
– Dealing with the illusions that can be created
between cause and effect
– Understanding Reasoning
– Understanding filters and how they can cloud
defining the problem
– Reducing false conclusions that were obtained
by faulty reasoning.
Baworld adapting to whats happening
Baworld adapting to whats happening
Baworld adapting to whats happening
Ursa Major – Great Bear
Navigation by Polaris
North
Credit: Stellarium.org Credit: Graham Bryant
Hampshire Astronomical Group
Types of Thinking
• Critical thinking is the mental process of objectively
analyzing a situation by gathering information from all
possible sources, and then evaluating both the tangible
and intangible aspects, as well as the implications of
any course of action.
• Implementation thinking is the ability to organize ideas
and plans in a way that they will be effectively carried
out.
• Conceptual thinking consists of the ability to find
connections or patterns between abstract ideas and
then piece them together to form a complete picture.
• Innovative thinking involves generating new ideas or
new ways of approaching things to create possibilities
and opportunities.
• Intuitive thinking is the ability to take what you may
sense or perceive to be true and, without knowledge or
evidence, appropriately factor it in to the final decision.
Higher Order Thinking
• System Thinking
– Higher-order thinking essentially means thinking that takes place
in the higher-levels of the hierarchy of cognitive processing.
Bloom’s Taxonomy is the most widely accepted hierarchical
arrangement of this sort in education and it can be viewed as a
continuum of thinking skills starting with knowledge-level
thinking and moving eventually to evaluation-level of thinking.
• "Size up and define a problem that isn't neatly packaged.
– Determine which facts and formulas stored in memory might be
helpful for solving a problem.
– Recognize when more information is needed, and where and
how to look for it.
• Carry out complex analyses or tasks that require
planning, management, monitoring, and adjustment.
– Exercise judgment in situations where there aren't clear-cut
'right' and 'wrong' answers, but more and less useful ways of
doing things.
– Step outside the routine to deal with an unexpected breakdown
or opportunity."
• Thought
– "Every day thinking, like ordinary walking, is a natural
performance we all pick up. But good thinking, like running the
100-yard dash, is a technical performance.
Power of Negative Thinking
• Bobby Knight – didn’t win games
as much as he didn’t lose them
• Avoid the mistakes
• Be prepared
• Be thoughtful of what could go
wrong
Critical thinkers tend to:
1. Be capable of taking a position or changing a position as evidence
dictates
2. Remain relevant to the point
3. Seek information as well as precision in information
4. Be open minded
5. Take the entire situation into account
6. Keep the original problem in mind
7. Search for reasons
8. Deal with the components of a complex problem in an orderly
manner
9. Seek a clear statement of the problem
10. Look for options
11. Exhibit sensitivity to others’ feelings and depth of knowledge
12. Use credible sources
Critical thinkers are intellectually curious
Critical thinkers know how to use anecdotes
(stories) effectively
A factor – not THE factor
Bias
Prejudice
Baworld adapting to whats happening
David L. Davis
Speaker, Storyteller, Santa
PMP, PgMP, PMI-PBA, MBA
Senior Program Manager Quick Solutions
419 346-7152
dldavispgmp@gmail.com

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Baworld adapting to whats happening

  • 3. A Little About My Career • Alliance Data Project Manager – Enhanced Mobile Loyalty Suite • Nationwide Insurance – Benefits Realization Advisor • Project Manager for Consumer Energy • Program Manager for AT&T eBonding Projects • Adjunct Instructor • Knowledge Management Advisor • University Academic Advisor
  • 6. PMI Talent Triangle(SM) Hard skills Certification Common Glossary Application of Best Practices Soft skills Behavior Changes Influence Advisement Emotional Intelligence Decision Making Acumen Products and Services Quality Process / Workflow
  • 7. How We Think People Think • It’s a question of focus Facts Logic Truth
  • 9. Basic Functions of a Human Thinking Make sense of the world • Analyzing • Judging • Comparing • Synthesis Feeling Tells us how we are doing • Happy • Sad • Included / Excluded • Stressed / Calm Wanting Drives us to act the way we do • The Rule of Remarkability • Goals • Purpose • Agenda
  • 11. Analytics vs. Analysis • is a multi-dimensional discipline. – There is extensive use of mathematics and statistics, the use of descriptive techniques and predictive models to gain valuable knowledge from data - data analysis. – The insights from data are used to recommend action or to guide decision making rooted in business context. – Analytics is not so much concerned with individual analyses or analysis steps, but with the entire methodology. – There is an increasing use of the term advanced analytics, typically used to describe the technical aspects of analytics, especially predictive modeling, machine learning techniques, and neural networks. • Analytics
  • 12. Analytics vs. Analysis • is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts to gain a better understanding of it – Business Analysis is the practice of enabling change in an organizational context, by defining needs and recommending solutions that deliver value to stakeholders. – Requirements analysis – encompasses those tasks that go into determining the needs or conditions to meet for a new or altered product, taking account of the possibly conflicting requirements of the various stakeholders, such as beneficiaries or users. – Traditionally involves creating a null hypothesis and then validating that with data or test results. • Analysis
  • 15. What are Analytics • Discovery and communication of meaningful patterns in data. • analytics relies on the simultaneous application of statistics, data extraction tools, and operations research to quantify performance. • Analytics often favors data visualization to communicate insight (knowledge)
  • 16. Critical Thinking Knowledge Skills To be a professional of any kind in the next 20 years, or even an enlightened citizen, will require a complicated set of thinking skills, more than reading and writing. The world isn’t filtered as it once was. Kids are thinking. What we’re trying to do is have them do it well. PeterScharf,Professorof SocialEcology
  • 17. Circumstance 1 • Observations – You wake up in the morning and the lawn is wet. – You do not have a sprinkling system, hose, or other watering capability. – The street is also wet • What can you guess happened last night?
  • 18. Circumstance 1 Conclusion • It rained overnight
  • 19. Circumstance 2 • Sara and her Mother drove to the computer store. Sara had her money she had received for Christmas and the money she had saved. She waited a long time for this day. Finally, she would be able to look up all the things she needed for school on a computer and email her friends. • What happened next?
  • 20. Circumstance 2 Conclusion • Sara bought a computer
  • 21. Circumstance 3 • If x = 4 • And if y = 1 • Then what does 2x + y equal?
  • 22. Circumstance 3 Conclusion • 2x + y = 9 • 2*4+1=9
  • 23. Be Careful • The inferential process can be valid even if the premise is false: • Lets use the deduction sited below: – There is no such thing as drought in the West. – California is in the West. – California need never make plans to deal with a drought.
  • 24. Be Careful In the example, though the inferential process itself is valid, the conclusion is false because the premise, There is no such thing as drought in the West, is false. A syllogism yields a false conclusion if either of its propositions is false. A syllogism like this is particularly insidious because it looks so very logical–it is, in fact, logical. But whether in error or malice, if either of the propositions above is wrong, then a policy decision based upon it (California need never make plans to deal with a drought) probably would fail to serve the public interest.
  • 25. Six Thinking Hats For Success Green Hat the creative side: alternatives, out-of- the-box ideas. What additional possibilities are there? What else can we try? Blue Hat the organizing view: Manage the thinking process. How should we think about this? Red Hat The emotional view: feelings, hunches, intuition. What’s your gut reaction? How do you feel about this? Black Hat The downsides: caution, difficulties, weaknesses, barriers. Why can’t we do this? What might not work? What are the dangers and risks? White Hat Facts and figures. What information are available and needed? Yellow Hat The upsides: benefits, values, positive outcomes. How can we do this? What are the potential returns? Why is it worth doing?
  • 27. • preconceived judgment or opinion • an adverse opinion or leaning formed without just grounds or before sufficient knowledge • This is a characteristic based on an individual opinions Prejudice November 2008 David L Davis, PMP © 28
  • 28. • deviation of the expected value of a statistical estimate from the quantity it estimates • systematic error introduced into sampling or testing by selecting or encouraging one outcome or answer over others • This is an individual characteristic based on altering things to determine an outcome Bias November 2008 David L Davis, PMP © 29
  • 29. Major Concepts • Data / Information Context – Lake – Filter, sort, view • Pattern Matching – Guessing – Trends • Historical (Lagging) • Predictive (Leading) • Prescriptive (Multiple Action)
  • 31. Business Intelligence • Demographics / categories • Terms such as profiling, segmentation, or clustering, and they fall under descriptive analytics. • What is the behavior and who is doing it?
  • 32. Descriptive Analytics • This is all about knowing what is going on, the more real-time the better. • What is the past 30-day response rate and conversion rate for a specific campaign? How did the response curve move through time? When is the optimal day part for email blast or ad broadcast? What is the ROI? What channel and product offering is the winning combination? • This can be in a form of dashboard reporting or any other conventional reporting, but many call it simply “analytics”.
  • 33. Optimization Analytics • Requires a complex type of modeling, where “what if” type of questions are answered. • What if we spend more money on mass media than on direct channel? What would be the most optimal combination of marketing spending that yields maximum return? What would be the ultimate ROI? This type of question is typically answered by marketing agencies, and it involves econometrics modeling. • This type of analytics calls for different types of data in comparison to typical predictive modeling for 1-to-1 marketing, but the whole process is also called analytics.
  • 34. Predictive Analytics • we start asking questions in future tenses. Who will respond to this campaign, and for what product and through what channel? • What are the potential values of each customer and prospect? Who will stop subscription of your service, and when would that be? When it comes to predictive analytics, we need carefully structured statistical models, which will return “scores” that define likelihood of customers behaving a certain way in the future. • In terms of complexity, this is the most demanding type of analytics, where trained statisticians work with specifically designed marketing databases with all kinds of custom variables.
  • 35. Prescriptive Analytics • The emerging technology of prescriptive analytics goes beyond descriptive and predictive models by recommending one or more courses of action -- and showing the likely outcome of each decision. – "Prescriptive analytics is a type of predictive analytics,“ – "It's basically when we need to prescribe an action, so the business decision-maker can take this information and act.“ – Prescriptive analytics doesn't predict one possible future, but rather "multiple futures" based on the decision- maker's actions. • In addition, prescriptive analytics requires a predictive model with two additional components: actionable data and a feedback system that tracks the outcome produced by the action taken. • "Since a prescriptive model is able to predict the possible consequences based on different choice of action, it can also recommend the best course of action for any pre-specified outcome"
  • 36. Adapting to what's happening Company Data Recording Data Tactical Analytics Predictive Analytics Social Media Sentiment Strategic Analytics How many we sold How many we sold last year How many we’ll sell next quarter How people feel about them Steve Lucas, SAP's SVP of database technology Behavior Change based on Analytics
  • 37. Thinking • Can be considered an open-minded process of: – discovery and understanding – analysis and application – synthesis and evaluation • Grouping Information based on data • Extracting Knowledge from Information • Applying wisdom using Knowledge
  • 38. Reasoning • The relationship between thinking and overall human genetics in the application of reasoning between what is known and what is unknown. • Different types of reasoning: – Inductive reasoning – Deductive reasoning – Predictive reasoning
  • 39. Human Deficiencies • As human beings we are blessed with the ability to be creative and random in our ability to determine a root cause analysis. • However this ability also comes with several defects that can hamper good analysis. – Distinguishing between a symptom and a cause – Dealing with our own bias and prejudices as a factor in the root cause analysis, not the factor. – Dealing with the illusions that can be created between cause and effect – Understanding Reasoning – Understanding filters and how they can cloud defining the problem – Reducing false conclusions that were obtained by faulty reasoning.
  • 43. Ursa Major – Great Bear Navigation by Polaris North Credit: Stellarium.org Credit: Graham Bryant Hampshire Astronomical Group
  • 44. Types of Thinking • Critical thinking is the mental process of objectively analyzing a situation by gathering information from all possible sources, and then evaluating both the tangible and intangible aspects, as well as the implications of any course of action. • Implementation thinking is the ability to organize ideas and plans in a way that they will be effectively carried out. • Conceptual thinking consists of the ability to find connections or patterns between abstract ideas and then piece them together to form a complete picture. • Innovative thinking involves generating new ideas or new ways of approaching things to create possibilities and opportunities. • Intuitive thinking is the ability to take what you may sense or perceive to be true and, without knowledge or evidence, appropriately factor it in to the final decision.
  • 45. Higher Order Thinking • System Thinking – Higher-order thinking essentially means thinking that takes place in the higher-levels of the hierarchy of cognitive processing. Bloom’s Taxonomy is the most widely accepted hierarchical arrangement of this sort in education and it can be viewed as a continuum of thinking skills starting with knowledge-level thinking and moving eventually to evaluation-level of thinking. • "Size up and define a problem that isn't neatly packaged. – Determine which facts and formulas stored in memory might be helpful for solving a problem. – Recognize when more information is needed, and where and how to look for it. • Carry out complex analyses or tasks that require planning, management, monitoring, and adjustment. – Exercise judgment in situations where there aren't clear-cut 'right' and 'wrong' answers, but more and less useful ways of doing things. – Step outside the routine to deal with an unexpected breakdown or opportunity." • Thought – "Every day thinking, like ordinary walking, is a natural performance we all pick up. But good thinking, like running the 100-yard dash, is a technical performance.
  • 46. Power of Negative Thinking • Bobby Knight – didn’t win games as much as he didn’t lose them • Avoid the mistakes • Be prepared • Be thoughtful of what could go wrong
  • 47. Critical thinkers tend to: 1. Be capable of taking a position or changing a position as evidence dictates 2. Remain relevant to the point 3. Seek information as well as precision in information 4. Be open minded 5. Take the entire situation into account 6. Keep the original problem in mind 7. Search for reasons 8. Deal with the components of a complex problem in an orderly manner 9. Seek a clear statement of the problem 10. Look for options 11. Exhibit sensitivity to others’ feelings and depth of knowledge 12. Use credible sources
  • 48. Critical thinkers are intellectually curious
  • 49. Critical thinkers know how to use anecdotes (stories) effectively
  • 50. A factor – not THE factor Bias Prejudice
  • 52. David L. Davis Speaker, Storyteller, Santa PMP, PgMP, PMI-PBA, MBA Senior Program Manager Quick Solutions 419 346-7152 dldavispgmp@gmail.com